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Conflicts and tariffs and Trump, oh my! Davos 2025 begins
It’s Davos time again. The 55th annual World Economic Forum begins Monday in the Swiss Alps just hours before US President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office on Capitol Hill.
This gathering of 3,000 top leaders from 130 countries, including more than 60 heads of state and hundreds of CEOs, begins at one of the most geopolitically fraught moments the world has seen since before the WEF was founded.
While there’s no doubt that Trump – who is scheduled to appear at the Forum via video conference on Thursday – will be a headliner, this year’s sermons from the mountain should be newsy.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is set to speak just a month before his nation’s Feb. 23 federal election. His political fate is unclear amid a disastrous economy and acollapsed coalition. Argentina’s colorful President Javier Milei will address the Forum following his much-talked-about2024 debut. We’ll see if he can top his “Long live freedom, dammit!” moment.
Other notables will be Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky and Ding Xuexiang, vice-premier of the People's Republic of China. Both will likely have much to say about America’s role in the world as the Trump presidency begins, though with very different goals in mind.
GZERO’s very own Tony Maciulis will be on the ground in Davos all next week. To set the scene, he spoke with Matthew Blake, a member of the Forum’s executive committee who also leads its Center for Financial and Monetary Systems, for a preview of what to expect as the event begins at a time of intense fragmentation.
This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.
Tony Maciulis: Let’s start by unpacking this year’s theme for WEF 2025, “A Call for Collaboration in the Intelligent Age.” By your own measure, based onthe Forum’s index, global cooperation is receding on issues from peace and security to trade and financial policy. What impact is that having on global growth?
Matthew Blake: I think we are living in interesting times, and I think the premise of the past that working together across a number of issues yields a significant fruit holds. [But] there's a lot of circumspection and reflection on that particular premise nonetheless, in this environment, for a platform like ours.
We're all about bringing people together across industries, the political and official class, NGOs and academics, innovators, large companies. And we're trying to bridge those gaps around critical challenges. Despite a world that's becoming more confused and trickier to navigate, there are some major issues out there that require collective action to solve. How do you maximize the potential of artificial intelligence and govern it appropriately? Here in the States, I know you are monitoring what's going on in Los Angeles. These climate-related events are becoming more significant. We as a species, as humanity, have to address that effectively.
Fundamentally, we need people to come together around common issues to make sure that those bridges remain intact, and that's the essence of what our organization does.
Maciulis: The World Economic Forum begins on the same day as Donald Trump’s inauguration. President Trump will attend WEF virtually and speak to participants in an interactive session. Obviously, for so many of these macro issues you’re describing, the United States plays a large role. What will you be hoping to hear from President Trump?
Blake: I think it’s an important signal that we’re seeing engagement from the new administration. In Trump’s first term, we had strong engagement from his team, and we will look to similarly develop those connections going forward. We have a number of [Trump’s] nominees who know the Forum very well, and we hope to tap into those relationships. They understand the nature of what we try to do. There’s no doubt that the United States plays an outsize role in the global community. Much of the international framework of the past 40 to 50 years and [before] has been driven by the leadership of the United States, and it’s still the largest and one of the most vibrant economies out there. It’s going to remain relevant. We look forward to working with the Trump administration and other stakeholders on issues of common concern.
Maciulis: I attend a lot of these global conferences, from the UN General Assembly to World Bank/IMF meetings and Davos, and a theme over the past year has been the need to rethink the framework born out of necessity after World War II, one that may not necessarily be answering all of the world's problems right now. What is your view on how to best engage the Global South?
Blake: We do that. We try to engage the Global South forcefully. If you dissect the public sector representation next week, I think roughly half of the officialdom is coming from nations housed in the Global South. Our organization, when you look across both the companies that we work with, but also governments, has a nice proportional relationship to global GDP, and the Global South is growing. You have major economies there, both growing in terms of population and economic heft. Our organization is less about following or amplifying existing paradigms. We've been engaging with the Global South for decades. It's very much core to our principles to be inclusive.
Maciulis: The other part of your overarching framing of the Forum is the notion of an “intelligent age,” referring to an explosion of AI and the digital economy. Last year's Forum began as a report came out from IMF about a staggering number of jobs that could be impacted by AI, 40% of the global workforce. Do you still see that as a mounting risk to the economy, and how do we move bigger swaths of the world into the AI moment so that they're not left behind?
Blake: The fundamental question that you're asking is how do we make sure that we don't drive huge gaps as we evolve? And technology drives that evolution. I think fundamentally it comes through training and skills.
We have to think differently about how we engage as professionals, How do we ensure that there are connections between universities and even high schools and middle schools with the job market to ensure that there's some continuity and mirroring that goes on there?
We're at an inflection point. The “intelligent age” moniker is a very deliberate use of words because we go from the agricultural revolution to the industrial revolution. And what we've seen historically is that there's some shuffling that goes on. So, our job is to try and identify that and shed light on it so we're working proactively toward making that transition as smoothly as we possibly can.
Maciulis: But in the electrified industrial age, even more than a century and a half later, there are still 700 million people around the world who don't have electricity. As AI explodes and starts adding a substantial amount of money to the global GDP, does that create a risk that we might not have encountered in previous industrial revolutions because of the speed at which it's evolving?
Blake: I mean, potentially. I think the potential is certainly there. Here again, I think the fact that we're having a discussion and we are cognizant of the velocity of change is already meaningful, right? To the extent that we can point that out even further, and be precise about what sectors or particular job types are particularly vulnerable to that velocity of change, that's us trying to signal a directional sense to have people adjust. And it's going to be, again, a collective-action challenge. It needs to be industry, it needs to be at the personal level. How do you put yourself back in a learning environment and upskill, and it's also a governmental challenge to ensure that industrial policy is instituted in a way where it rises all boats.
Maciulis: I know that the Forum’sglobal risk report is out as well. Aside from the topics we've already discussed, what are the impending risks of 2025 that are keeping you up at night?
Blake: We are seeing, very regrettably, an uptick in conflict. Africa, obviously, Europe, the Middle East, and rising tensions. I think it is fair to say that that is a growing concern. It's one thing to use geoeconomic statecraft, but the reality is there's a risk of that transcending issues such as tariffs and sanctions, moving into more hot conflict. And regardless of where you are in the world, that is a major concern.
Maciulis: For people who don't know as much about the World Economic Forum and Davos, could you explain its relevance and what we can hope to have come out of an annual meeting like this?
Blake: We maintain a very privileged role in the sense that we're able to bring in key decision-makers across industry sectors. Were able to bring in roughly 350 public officials, and I think we're approaching 50 heads of state and then thought leadership from academia. So, as a convening entity, the annual meeting remains a very unique moment in the year where individuals can take stock of what’s going on and also propose potential ideas for multiple stakeholders to take forward for 2025 and beyond. We have 55 years of convening experience, but our organization has also morphed and changed, and I think our ability to engage stakeholders throughout the year is really a fundamental factor in what we do.
I would say, in essence, it's a tremendous opportunity for thought leadership that comes out of the annual meeting. It's a great opportunity to bridge divides in thinking and to address different policies and to reflect on the pros and cons of different policy approaches. It's an excellent environment to compare and contrast where people are in political thinking during the year.
Maciulis: And final question, has there been any discussion about moving “Davos” to a slightly warmer locale? I'm asking for a friend, as they say.
Blake: We've heard that a few times. You have to go with your wit and your intelligence to the annual meeting. You also need to go with a good set of shoes. Davos is such a unique environment because of its location, and so when you're there, you're committed to the experience. And Davos has a lot of lore around it in history that you can certainly dig up. It's a very interesting place on its own. I don't see us changing the location anytime soon. It plays a very unique and important role in our organizational history.
Maciulis: So, it's not time for me to pack away my snow boots just yet.
Blake: Indeed.
Follow GZERO’s coverage of the 55th World Economic Forum throughout the week in our newsletters and across our social media channels.