Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Hard Numbers: US and Mexico reach water deal, Russia and Ukraine smash drone records, US students look abroad after Trump win, Indonesia’s new president walks non-aligned line, Haiti's interim leader fired
18: After 18 months of talks, the US and Mexico announced on Saturday that they have reached a new water-sharing agreement. The accord revises and makes more flexible a decades-old pact under which Mexico provides water from the Rio Grande to the US Southwest in exchange for water from the Colorado River. The breakthrough comes amid growing concerns about water scarcity on both sides of the border. (For more on the complicated (geo)politics of the Colorado River, see our report here).
84 and 145: Russia and Ukraine each launched their largest drone attacks ever against the other side this weekend. Moscow said it intercepted at least 84 Ukrainian drones, at least 34 of which were aimed at the capital city itself, while Kyiv said Russia had launched at least 145 unmanned craft of its own. Both sides said they shot down the majority of the other’s drones. The barrages come as both sides try to game out the impact of Trump 2.0, with the president-elect having pledged to end the war in “24 hours” when he returns to office.
500: The number of US students seeking to study abroad has spiked in the days since Donald Trump won the presidential election. A leading provider of information on foreign education opportunities reported that average inquiries jumped nearly 500% to 11,000 a day since last Tuesday night. College students were one of the few demographics that overwhelmingly supported Kamala Harris, with polls showing more than 70% favoring the vice president.
10 billion: Indonesia’s new president hailed cooperation with China, signing $10 billion in new business and security deals with the country at a forum in Beijing on Sunday. Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and businessman who took office last month, has praised China’s emergence as a “civilizational power” but also said Indonesia would remain “non-aligned.” His first trip abroad as president will take him from Beijing to Washington, DC, and then to South America and the UK.
6: Haiti’s interim Prime Minister Garry Conillewas fired on Sunday after just six months on the job. The country’s transitional council, established to restore democratic order amid increasing gang violence, signed a decree to dismiss Conille, replacing him with businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, the former president of Haiti’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The decree is set to be published on Monday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and former President Donald Trump, meeting in New York City on Sept. 27, 2024.
How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have massive geopolitical implications. During his first term, Trump’s chaotic foreign policy was driven by his “America First” philosophy, which combined a transactional view of alliances and an isolationist-leaning skepticism about US involvement in foreign conflicts. He withdrew from major agreements, routinely insulted allies (often via tweets), questioned the value of NATO and the UN, launched a trade war with China, cozied up to authoritarian adversaries, and was viewed as an untrustworthy leader across the globe.
Given the tumultuous nature of his initial four years in office, the world is now bracing for the impact of Trump’s return.
Here’s a closer look at what we can expect from Trump on some of the biggest foreign policy issues.
China
Trump 1.0 took a hardline approach to trade with China, which he holds responsible for draining American manufacturing jobs. He imposed several rounds of tariffs that were continued by the Biden administration.
The president-elect has threatened to raise those tariffs further – up to 60%. China, which has been struggling economically, is ramping up exports in order to get ahead of any Trump 2.0 tariffs.
Trump has also threatened to revoke the CHIPS Act, a law signed by President Joe Biden to increase competitiveness with Beijing in the semiconductors race by offering billions to companies that produce in the US. Trump says he prefers to simply slap tariffs on Chinese chips directly.
Taiwan
Trump’s victory is making Taiwan anxious, amid questions over whether he’ll continue to support the self-governing island democracy as it contends with an increasingly aggressive China. The president-elect has called for Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province, to begin paying the US for defense. By law, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive weapons. The island purchases billions in arms from the US.
Trump has also accused Taiwan, the world’s biggest producer of semiconductors, of stealing the US’s “chip business.”
When asked in October whether he would use military force against a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, Trump said, “I wouldn’t have to” because Xi “respects” him and knows he’s “f— crazy.”
The Middle East
Trump’s election victory is good news for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump took numerous steps that aided Netanyahu’s agenda. He controversially moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and said the US no longer considered Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank as illegal under international law. Bibi in a tweet celebrated Trump’s win as “history’s greatest comeback!”
Trump will likely be even more pro-Israel than Biden – former CIA Chief Leon Panetta has even said he expects the president-elect to give Netanyahu “a blank check.”
But Trump has also expressed a desire for a quick end to the war in Gaza and has vowed to bring peace to the region. At a minimum, his election win gives Netanyahu room to delay any cease-fire deal until after Trump’s inauguration.
Saudi Arabia is also likely pleased to see Trump return. He stood by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the aftermath of the kingdom’s brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and derailed efforts in Washington to punish Riyadh. Trump could potentially use his strong ties with Saudi Arabia to foster a deal that would see the oil-rich country normalize ties with Israel — though the Saudis still say this won’t happen until the issue of Palestinian statehood is resolved.
Trump’s win also has significant implications with regard to Iran, which is currently locked in a tit-for-tat with Israel that has fueled fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
The US and Iran were on the brink of war under Trump after he ordered the strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general. Tensions were already high at the time due to Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose harsh economic sanctions in a failed bid to get Tehran to agree to a stricter deal.
Trump has pledged to avoid new wars in his second term and in September signaled he was open to talks with Tehran to achieve a new agreement to ensure Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon. But if he once again pursues a “maximum pressure” strategy, it could raise the risk of conflict.
Ukraine
Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours,” but he hasn’t elaborated on how he’ll accomplish this.
As a result, his victory ushers in a new era of uncertainty for Kyiv. Trump, who’s repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, opposes continued US support for Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion. The Ukrainian military would struggle to sustain the fight without continued US assistance.
The dynamic between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is awkward. Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 was tied to his decision to freeze aid to Ukraine as he pressured Zelensky to launch an investigation into Biden over bogus corruption allegations.
Trump has also blamed Zelensky for the war with Russia, though it was Putin who ordered the Russian invasion of the former Soviet republic.
But Zelensky on Wednesday said he had a “great” conversation with Trump as he congratulated him on winning the election. “We agreed to maintain a close dialogue and develop our cooperation. Strong and steadfast US leadership is vital to the world and to a just peace,” he added, praising Trump’s “peace through strength” approach to global affairs.
Putin on Thursday also congratulated Trump, praising him as a “brave man.” The Russian leader added that what Trump has said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.”
Mexico
The US-Mexico relationship could suffer under Trump, who routinely rails against the country in relation to immigration, has pledged to conduct mass deportations, and has even suggested the US should use military force against Mexican drug cartels.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on America’s southern neighbor — and largest trading partner — even though this would potentially violate the trade deal that he negotiated with Mexico and Canada while in office.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is so far playing it cool in the face of these threats. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum said Mexicans have “nothing to worry about” over Trump’s election win.
“We are a free, independent, sovereign country and there will be good relations with the United States. I am convinced of this,” Sheinbaum added.
Europe
Trump’s victory raises many questions about US relations with Europe. Amid ongoing economic woes across the continent, European leaders are unsettled by Trump’s threat to apply blanket tariffs on goods imported into the US. But it remains to be seen whether Trump will make good on this.
Trump frequently clashed with European allies during his first term, using unprecedented and alarming threats to withdraw from NATO altogether as a means of getting them to spend more on defense as part of the alliance.. His win is sparking fresh conversations about the need for Europe to be less reliant on the US for defense.
NATO chief Mark Rutte on Thursday said Trump was “right” to pressure NATO countries to spend more on defense. The NATO chief said he was “looking forward” to sitting down with Trump to discuss issues of concern to the alliance.
Meanwhile, the far right prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, celebrated the US election result as a “much needed victory for the world,” though on Thursday he cautioned that trade relations with a more protectionist administration “will not be easy.”
- The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order - GZERO Media ›
- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's plans for policy & personnel - GZERO Media ›
- Global leaders scramble to align with Trump - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return - GZERO Media ›
People wait in line to buy bread before Rafael's arrival in Havana, Cuba, on Nov. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Cuba battens down the hatches, Mexico’s judicial reform stands, Iran’s currency hits record low, Tsk tsk Pyongyang, Reckless raccoon
8: On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a proposal to narrow the scope of a controversial reform plan that would require all judges in the country to stand for election. Seven of the 11 justices voted to limit the election requirement to Supreme Court justices, buteight votes were needed to water down the reform.
703,000: On Wednesday, Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low as news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election hit markets. The rial traded at703,000 to the dollar before a slight recovery later in the day.
2/3: Ten of the 15 current UN Security Council members condemned North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations. Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom supported a US statement of condemnation. Russia, China, Algeria, Mozambique, and Guyana refused.
8 billion: At the Marine Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia airport, a raccoon fell through the ceiling at a departure gate earlier this week, causing chaos. This smaller terminal was not part of the infamously ramshackle airport’s recent$8 billion upgrade.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum at the National Palace on November 4, 2024 in Mexico City, Mexico.
Mexico’s Supreme Court girds for clash with new president
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaumattacked the Supreme Court on Tuesday, saying it would overstep its bounds if it votes to overturn parts of an ambitious judicial overhaul pushed through by her predecessor, former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The reform would require all judges – even those in the high court – to be elected by popular vote, which critics say will rob the judicial system of its independence.
The looming fight is nothing short of a constitutional crisis, and the justices are on their back foot. Eight of them already announced their intentions to resign rather than stand for elections in June. Meanwhile, the ruling Morena party’s coalition supermajorities in Congress allowed it to pass an amendment last week barring judicial challenges to constitutional changes – in other words, stripping the Supreme Court of its ability to check the executive or legislative branches. This could mean that whatever decision the court reaches may be moot.
A compromise? One justice, Juan Luis González Alcántara, is proposing a compromise that would see only the top courts stand for election, while lower justices remain appointed. He’ll need to win over his fellow justices, and we are watching whether avoiding a major crisis just one month into her presidency is enough of an incentive for Sheinbaum to take the deal.
Workers of the Judiciary in Mexico City, Mexico, on October 15, 2024, protest outside the National Palace in the capital against judicial reform in Mexico. They reject the bill promoted by the former president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, which proposes the election by popular vote of judges, magistrates, and ministers of the Supreme Court starting in 2025.
Mexican Congress defangs the judiciary as majority of Supreme Court resigns
Eight out of Mexico’s 11 Supreme Court justices announced late Wednesday that they would resign their positions in opposition to a judicial overhaul that requires them to stand for election, while at the same time Congress passed new legislation that will prohibit legal challenges to constitutional changes. With the opposition in tatters and the courts castrated, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Morena party has free rein to implement its far-reaching agenda, known as the Fourth Transformation.
Experts say the legislation means Mexico effectively has no checks on presidential and legislative power, given Morena’s coalition supermajority in Congress. The opposition PRI and PAN parties are deeply unpopular and tarnished by corruption, with slim chances of recovering popular support before the midterm elections in 2027. With a strong popular mandate to boot, Morena is on stable ground to pursue whatever projects it wants to prioritize, no matter how potentially disruptive.
Seven of the eight resigning justices will serve through August 2025, with their replacements set to be elected in June, while the eighth has reached retirement and will leave his seat on Nov. 30. The justices made clear their resignations are not meant to legitimize the judicial overhaul, but they stood to lose their pensions if they did not resign or declare their candidacy by Oct. 31.
What’s the next signpost? All eyes will be on the Supreme Court on Nov. 5 (the same day as the US election), when it is expected to discuss a draft ruling on the judicial overhaul that requires justices to stand for election. They may find portions of the overhaul unconstitutional, but with Wednesday’s legislation, that point is rendered moot.Sao Paulo far-right digital influencer and mayor candidate Pablo Marcal leaves a polling station on supporters' shoulders after voting at a polling station during the municipal elections in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 6, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Brazil’s local elections, North Korea 💔 China?, Tunisia’s low voter turnout, Mayor killed in Mexico, Republicans vs. sexually explicit content
5,518: On Sunday, voters in Brazil elected mayors in 5,518 cities and towns across the country, and on Oct. 27, many will return to vote in 51 more cities, including Sao Paulo, where no candidate earned more than 50% in the first round. Much media coverage has underlined that most winners so far were center-right candidates backed by former President Jair Bolsonaro, but the real trend seems to be that incumbents of both left and right fared well.
75: In the latest sign that China’s relations with North Korea have become strained, the DPRK marked the 75th anniversary of its diplomatic ties with China on Sunday without major celebrations. It’s unclear why relations have cooled, but it might have something to do with North Korea’s ever-closer relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
27.7: In Tunisia, where the Arab Spring began in 2011, President Kais Saied cruised toward a massive landslide win over an imprisoned opposition candidate. Outside observers warn that the country’s democracy is compromised. First reports suggest turnout fell from 49% in the runoff round of the 2019 election to just 27.7%.
6: In Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero state in Mexico,Mayor Alejandro Arcos was murdered on Sunday, just six days after taking office. In the state, which is home to Acapulco, drug gangs have enough influence to organize their own anti-government demonstrations.
17: On Monday, 17 adult film stars launched a $100,000 ad campaign warning that Project 2025 — the Heritage Foundation policy blueprint for the next Republican administration — wants to ban pornography and imprison those who produce it. The ads will run on adult websites in swing states. (pun intended)
Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum poses for a picture during an interview with Reuters in Mexico City, Mexico September 22, 2022.
Mexico’s first female president takes the reins
Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s first female president — and first of Jewish heritage — on Tuesday, succeeding the wildly popular Andres Manuel López Obrador, whose shadow hangs heavily over the prospects for her administration. She won the June election with 60% of the vote, but as much as the people may support her, the left-leaning populist agenda she has promised to continue pursuing doesn’t always sit right with the investors the Mexican economy needs.
World leaders will be in attendance, including presidents of Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba and Guatemala, and a large US delegation led by first lady Jill Biden. However, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will send his deputy prime minister in his place, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose invitation stirred controversy, will not attend. Argentinian President Javier Milei is also likely to skip, given his ideological opposition to Sheinbaum and AMLO’s left-wing ambitions.
After the celebrations, Sheinbaum has plenty on her plate. Far too many Mexicans face severe threats to their personal and communal safety from drug violence and corruption. Eurasia Group analyst Matias Gomez-Leauteaud says he’s watching how the new president addresses security in her inaugural speech, but such long-term goals may stay on the back burner for the moment.
“There are two key decisions for her in the short term, both related to economic policy: The 2025 budget, which must be presented at the latest on Nov. 15, and her selection of a new central bank deputy governor," he says. We’re watching whether Sheinbaum’s decisions can halt the slide of Mexico’s peso, which has fallen 14% against the dollar since she was elected.
Why Canadians are tired of Justin Trudeau
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why is Mexico's judiciary overhaul controversial?
Main reason is it means the judiciary is going to be less independent and much more politicized. They're going to be elected, these judges. They're going to have shorter terms. They're going to be aligned with whoever happens to be in political power. That is the intention. That's why AMLO, outgoing president, wanted this judiciary reform to get done and not be changed. But not only does that undermine rule of law and means that his preferences, his party's preferences will likely also be that of the judiciary. But also, especially in a country where there are very, very strong gangs associated with drugs, any place where they have strong governance, they'll be able to also ensure that the judges are the ones that they want, and that is a horrible development for rule of law in a country whose democratic institutions frankly aren't very consolidated. So, it's a problem and it's going to hurt the Mexican economy, hurt the investment climate.
After losing another parliamentary seat, is Justin Trudeau's time as Canada's leader coming to an end?
Certainly. Sometimes you stay a little longer than your performance merits. This is certainly the case for Trudeau. The people are tired of him. They don't feel the country's heading in the right direction. Major problems in terms of inflation, especially real estate, housing costs, lack of availability of housing, and just people wanting something different. We've seen that all over the world with elections over the last year. We're going to see it in Canada in the coming months.
2.5 years in, and 1 million now dead or injured. Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine any closer to resolution?
I'd say it's closer to resolution insofar as the Ukrainians increasingly know that it's getting harder for them to field troops, to fight, to defend their territory. That's why the risk, the risky attack inside Russian territory, which they probably can't hold, but certainly has meant that they're going to lose more territory in Ukraine. Also, certainly you talk to NATO leaders, they understand that the time for negotiations, the time for trying to wrap up the war and freeze the conflict, a ceasefire, at least, if not a negotiated settlement is soon. So, I'd be surprised if the war is still going with the level of intensity in a year as it is right now, but the Ukrainians are not going to get their land back. And what that means and what kind of guarantees they get from the West, including security guarantees potentially, certainly Ukraine very hopeful for an actual formal NATO invitation, which they don't have at this point. That is the state of negotiations happening between the Ukrainians and others.