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FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled. The state House is divided and the last few general elections have been decided on razor-thin margins. That was until the 2022 governor’s race when Democrat Josh Shapiro triumphed over a Trump-backed Republican by almost fifteen points, and his approval ratings in the state remain strong.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a mini America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. It also has a massive energy sector – where fracking is and the green energy transition are major issues.
Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but the immigrant population is increasing. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean blue, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, Biden clinched the closest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, largely thanks to the state's rapidly diversifying population, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited in large portion to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this purple state could be winnable this year. The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts while Trump is criticizing and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become the nationwide epicenter for backlash over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt State and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes,is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin despite national union representatives deciding not to back a candidate in the race and dispersed internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point in this Sun Belt swing state. That being said, it is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state to lower taxes and lessen regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes, and only if she won all of the states Biden won in 2020. This is risky. Any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, which she very well might, she’d need to pick up one of the two Sun Belt states and one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she still carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she could repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- though that would be quite a blowout.If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to exceed his 2020 performance in suburban counties. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. All that we really know is that whoever wins Pennsylvania will be well on their way to winning the White House.
An entrance to the U.S. Steel Great Lakes Works plant is seen in Ecorse, Michigan, U.S., September 24, 2019. Picture taken September 24, 2019.
Nippon Steel’s US deal may be good business, but it’s bad politics
The Global Business Alliance, a group of multinational corporations, is urging the Biden administration to keep politics out of any national security review of Nippon Steel’s offer to buy U.S. Steel — but politics is precisely the problem.
The deal: Japan’s largest steel producer is offering over $14 billion to buy U.S. Steel, and on paper, it shouldn’t be a particularly painful process. The offer is a nice premium over where U.S. Steel’s stock is currently trading, and as Japan is among the US’ closest allies, under normal circumstances, government oversight would be only routine. So why did Nippon Steel have an executive in Washington last week to meet with concerned lawmakers?
Because this is 2024. U.S. Steel owns major plants in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states US President Joe Biden must win in November to secure re-election – and the United Steelworkers union is mad enough to spit. Neither U.S. Steel nor Nippon Steel consulted the union as the deal was being negotiated, and union leadership is hammering management for selling out to a foreign-owned company.
So rather than a swift approval, Biden (and, it should be said, a bipartisan group of lawmakers) has expressed support for a review through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, an agency set up to safeguard national security in major deals by foreign-owned corporations.
And, gosh, who knows how long that could take? GZERO’s crystal ball keeps pointing to a resolution sometime after Tuesday, Nov. 5.
The Graphic Truth: Union workers in swing states
President Joe Biden joined striking US auto workers in Michigan this week to lend support to the labor unions that have been on the picket line.
This move – the first time a US president has joined organized labor groups in protest – shows the importance of specific states in the upper Midwest, where unions yield clout, in paving Biden’s path to victory in next year’s presidential election. Former President Donald Trump, for his part, also addressed auto workers in Michigan this week.
But this outreach isn’t just about the Great Lakes State and its important electorate – it’s reflective of both parties’ efforts to win over white working-class voters in a matchup that’s looking increasingly close.
We take a look at union representation across select battleground states and how they’ve voted in the past four presidential elections.
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a 2024 presidential election campaign event in Summerville, South Carolina.
Trump makes his Michigan pitch
As autoworkers walk picket lines in 21 states, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both in Michigan, the heart of the American auto industry, trying to woo union workers. Both men hope to win support from voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, three states with large numbers of union members that proved decisive in both the 2016 election of Trump and the 2020 election of Biden. That’s where the similarity in their messages ends.
On Tuesday, Biden told members of the United Auto Workers, a powerful labor union, that he stands with them in their fight with automakers for better pay and working conditions. This evening in a Detroit suburb, Trump will tell union members that Biden is lying to them about their true enemy: It’s not their employers who are cheating them but the leaders of their unions, who are in league with woke liberals and a fake environmental agenda that will kill their jobs, allowing foreign countries (mainly China) to take advantage of America and its workers.
Meanwhile, 2,300 miles away in Simi Valley, California, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum will debate before the diminishing number of Republican voters still looking for a Trump GOP alternative. The debate begins Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET and will air live on the FOX Business and Univision cable networks.Podcast: Rebuilding American infrastructure with Pete Buttigieg
Listen: In this episode of the GZERO World podcast, we’re bridging America’s divides, and we mean that literally. It’s infrastructure week on GZERO World, and Ian Bremmer is talking to Mr. Infrastructure himself: US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. They discuss the state of America’s roads, bridges, and tunnels, as well as the landmark legislation meant to upgrade them all. They also talk about how major technological advances in electric vehicles and industrial shipping are poised to change the ways we move, and the things we ship. Oh, and they talk 2024 and why the Secretary recently changed his permanent address to that swing state, Michigan.
- Electric vehicle wars ›
- Pete Buttigieg explains: How the debt limit impacts transportation ›
- Can Biden’s IRA work IRL? ›
- Jennifer Granholm: On clean energy, US is "putting our money where our mouth is” ›
- Episode 1: What infrastructure spending means for you ›
- Ian Explains: Will US infrastructure finally be fixed? - GZERO Media ›
- Who's responsible for the East Palestine train disaster? - GZERO Media ›
- US summer travel may be easier than you think, says Pete Buttigieg - GZERO Media ›
- The road to repair: Pete Buttigieg & crumbling US infrastructure - GZERO Media ›
Can Dems rebuild a blue fence in the Midwest?
In Midterm Matters, we look at hot-button US midterm news to separate the signal (need-to-knows) from the noise (the chatter).
Today, we head to the Rust Belt. Yes, that bunch of states that used to lean so reliably left that they were once called Dems' Blue Wall — until 2016, when Donald Trump smashed a red wrecking ball right through it to win the presidency.
Noise: Ohio has been aboard the red train since the Trump years. With industrial decline plaguing much of the region, we’ve seen plenty of chatter about Republicans gaining more traction as working-class voters switch allegiances to the GOP. But …
FiveThirtyEight forecasts that Democrats are leading in gubernatorial races in the three Rust Belt battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Witmer is ahead of Republican rival Tudor Dixon by the widest margin, with both school shootings and abortion as hot topics. Next, in Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro is leading his Republican opponent and 2020 election denier, Douglas Mastriano, in a tighter race that has controversially featured the role of religion in both men’s lives. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is a toss-up: Gov. Tom Evers (D) is only slightly ahead of his Republican challenger, Tim Michels, with lots of squabbling over crime figures.
Signal: While Republican congressional and presidential gains in the region are real, these gubernatorial races show us that Dems still have lasting strength in the Rust Belt.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.