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Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch Party for Freedom party, part of the hard-right coalition government.
Hard Numbers: The Netherlands nixes asylum-seekers, Sudan strife escalates, South Koreans agitate, Beijing condemns US-Taiwan arms deal, Bulgarians vote – again
51,000: The Dutch nationalist government on Friday approved tough new migration measures in Parliament, including enhanced border checks, an end to mandatory municipal settlement of asylum-seekers, and limits on family reunification. The policy comes after 51,000 asylum applications were made in the past 12 months and reflects shifts in Italy, Sweden, and other EU nations towards tighter migration controls.
124: An attack by the Rapid Support Forces on Friday killed at least 124 people in Al-Sareeha village in Sudan, with reports of over 200 injured and 150 detained. The attack marked the latest escalation in the conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces, which has displaced millions and triggered a severe humanitarian crisis.
230,000: South Korean Christians held a mass protest in Seoul on Sunday to oppose a court ruling granting same-sex partners spousal health benefits, fearing it paves the way for legalizing same-sex marriage. The protest disrupted traffic as organizers claimed over a million participants, while police estimated the crowd at 230,000.
2 billion: China on Saturday condemned a $2 billion US arms sale to Taiwan, the 17th of the Biden administration to the island, vowing “countermeasures” to defend its sovereignty. Beijing warns that the deal, which includes advanced air defense systems, “seriously damages China-US relations, and endangers peace and stability” in the strait.
7: Exit polls show Boyko Borisov's GERB party leading Bulgaria’s seventh election in three years, but forming a coalition could be difficult: The last election in June produced a hung Parliament. This time, the pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party underperformed, while the Reformist PP-DB exceeded expectations. Final results are expected on Monday.
EU Summit focuses on migration crisis
What is the Russian stake in the EU referendum in Moldova? What was the main outcome of the EU Summit last week? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from London.
What is the Russian stake in the EU referendum in Moldova?
Well, the Russians are intending quite clearly to try to secure a "no" in that particular referendum. They're throwing money at it. They are trying to bribe voters. They are having an information campaign. So it's fairly obvious that their enthusiasm for the European aspirations of Moldova are fairly limited. We'll see how that turns out. There's also presidential election, but their sitting President Maia Sandu is highly likely to be re-elected.
What was the main outcome of the EU Summit last week?
It was migration, migration, migration. That is the issue that is dominating the politics in quite a number of European countries. And fairly obviously, it requires European solution. There have been agreements on the migration pact, not yet implemented fully. But clearly there's urge for further measures to sort of have a higher fence if possible. That's easier said than done. But also measures to send back to different countries the people who have no right to stay in Europe. So, Europe needs a higher fence, yes, that was the conclusion. But Europe also needs, as a matter of fact, a door, a fairly big door, because we have a demographic situation, a declining working age force in the years and in the decades ahead. So it's a huge issue. It's one difficult to balance, but clearly dominated the EU Summit.
Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk gestures while speaking during the weekly Ministerial meeting in Warsaw.
Poland scraps right to asylum
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in recent days unilaterally suspended the right to asylum for migrants crossing into Poland from neighboring Belarus. Tusk said the move is temporary, meant to stop Russia from directing flows of migrants towards Poland in an effort to destabilize the country. In recent years, Poland and Belarus have nearly come to blows over the issue.
The decision, which has raised concerns among human rights groups, comes just before a major EU summit focused in part on crafting a coherent migration policy that balances the bloc’s supranational human rights laws with national-level concerns about rapid immigration from the Global South. In recent weeks, Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, imposed fresh border checks of its own.
Note: Tusk is no ultra-nationalist. A centrist former European Council president, Tusk was elected last year on a wave of discontent with the long-ruling, far-right Law and Justice party. But in Poland – as elsewhere in the decade since a wave of refugees from the Syrian civil war arrived – calls for tighter immigration policy have moved from the right-wing fringe to the mainstream discourse.
All of this as the numbers are actually falling. Illegal crossings detected byEU border authorities fell 42% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period last year, authorities say. Migrant voyages via the Mediterranean fell drastically, but they in fact rose along eastern routes into the Czech Republic and Poland.
Looking ahead: EU leaders will meet to discuss the issue on Wednesday and Thursday.UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meeting with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Starmer asks Meloni for a lesson on curbing illegal migration
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmermet with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Monday to learn how her hard-line tactics against irregular migration could help him deliver on his election promise to “smash the gangs” driving such migration to the UK. The meetings came after eight migrants died crossing the English Channel on Sunday and on the heels of disinformation-fueled anti-immigrant riots in August.
Starmer is interested in how Meloni cut irregular sea crossings to Italy by 60% over the past year, and in the so-called “Rome Process” she adopted last year when she forged deals with North African countries like Tunisia and Libya to tackle people-smuggling gangs, intercept departing boats, and return migrants. Starmer pledged £4 million to support the Rome Process. He also said he was open to following Italy’s lead on processing asylum claims offshore — a project Meloni is struggling to get off the ground in Albania but one that has generated the interest of leaders across Europe, including in Brussels.
The meeting shows how Starmer has changed his tune on immigration since campaigning against Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda. It also signals how Europe's shift to the right on immigration has positioned Meloni’s tactics – once considered fringe – in the mainstream.
A demonstrator is holding a banner during an antigovernment protest in Lisbon, Portugal, on August 4, 2024. Venezuelans in Lisbon are gathering in Praca do Comercio to protest and express their disagreement with the election results in Venezuela and to support opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez.
Venezuela’s neighbors brace for a fresh exodus
A new poll shows more than 40% of Venezuela’s population — roughly 7 million people — might flee the country in the wake of strongman President Nicolás Maduro’s apparently successful bid to steal the July 28 election.
According to research by local pollster Meganalisis, nearly a million of those people are planning to leave by the end of the year. If that happens, it will exacerbate what is already the world’s worst external refugee crisis.
Since 2014, nearly 8 million Venezuelans have fled their country’s political and humanitarian chaos, surpassing the numbers from Ukraine (6 million) and Syria (5.5 million). Three million went to Colombia, and 1.5 million are in Peru. Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Spain, and the US are home to half a million each.
Their arrival has stretched the capacity of governments and societies to absorb newcomers, especially during the difficult climb out of the pandemic. Anti-immigrant sentiment has grown across the region. As far away as New York City, Mayor Eric Adams says the presence of 150,000 refugees, many from Venezuela, would “destroy the city.”
Venezuela’s opposition – which won the election, according to independent counts – is still in the streets, demanding a transition of power. But with Maduro now doubling down, millions may soon vote again – this time with their feet.
For more: Watch GZERO’s special report about the non-profits helping to welcome and resettle thousands of refugees amid New York City’s “broken” immigration system.
FILE PHOTO: Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of X looks on during the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 6, 2024.
Trolling with power: Elon Musk’s online antics are getting real
Businessman, entrepreneur, and increasingly, a disruptive force in geopolitics.
Elon Musk, the owner of X, SpaceX, and Tesla, has never shied away from controversial political posts, but over these last few weeks, his online trolling has had very real-world consequences.
Last week, he amplified posts on X that fueled racist riots in the United Kingdom and prophesized that civil war in the country was inevitable. Today, he is reportedly set to interview former President Donald Trump on X, a sitdown that will generate hundreds of headlines in a presidential cycle in which the interviewer, Musk, has unabashedly chosen a side.
In the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania last month, Musk took to his app to endorse Trump’s candidacy – shattering the norm of self-declared neutrality by the leaders of social media platforms. (Mark Zuckerberg, for example, is not nearly as vocal about his political views). And in July, Musk announced the creation of a political action committee, America Pac, that would “mostly but not entirely” support the Republican Party.
The South African-born investor has also signaled his disapproval of Trump’s opponent, Kamala Harris, and even disseminated a deep fake video purportedly showing Harris calling herself “the ultimate diversity hire.” He also suspended the account “White Dudes for Harris” on X after it held a massive fundraising call that raised more than $4 millionfor her campaign.
Musk’s political interventions on X have been particularly controversial in the UK, where his inflammatory posts have been linked to recent civil unrest. British officials have criticized Musk for spreading misinformation, including false claims that the murderer of three British girls – which fueled protests and riots last week – was a Muslim migrant. During the riots, “super sharers,” or accounts like Elon Musk’s with large followings, acted as “nodes” for disseminating this lie through their interaction with the far-right content.
Musk is also responsible for relaxing the content moderation guidelines on the site and reinstating many far-right accounts that acted as super-sharers of misinformation. For example, he unbanned Tommy Robinson, a fringe and four-times-jailed extreme-right British activist, who went viral during the riots. He also promoted Ashlea Simon – co-founder of a white supremacist group — who claimed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer planned to send British rioters to detention camps in the Falkland Islands.
Can he be regulated? As a result of the riots, many political leaders, including Starmer, EU commissioners, and US senators, have called for an inquiry into social media’s role in spreading incendiary disinformation.
According to Scott Bade, a geo-technology expert at Eurasia Group, Musk is increasingly becoming a “geopolitical agent of chaos.” But Musk isn’t too powerful to regulate, says Bade. “The thing is, you’re not going to regulate Elon himself. You’re going to regulate the pieces of his empire.”
The Online Safety Act is already set to take effect in the UK at the end of the year and will require platforms to remove illegal content or be fined 10% of global annual turnover or £18 million, whichever is higher. In the wake of the riots, legislatures are considering tightening restrictions so companies can be sanctioned if they allow “legal but harmful” content such as misinformation to flourish.
“There is a clear consensus emerging in the aftermath of the riots that Musk and X are a problem, given the amount of misinformation, racial abuse, and incitement to violence that was spread on the platform,” says Eurasia Group Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman. “There will be a political and a policy response, but what shape that will take remains unclear for now.”
Residential and office buildings are seen in Beijing, China, January 10, 2017.
Hard Numbers: Chinese house prices drop, Maryland governor pardons cannabis convicts, Nuclear spending soars, Putin visits Kim, Record migration through Mexico
3.9: China reported Monday that home prices across the country fell at a faster rate in May than at any time since last summer. They’ve dropped3.9% since last May, and they’ve now reached their lowest level since 2014. Housing prices are especially sensitive in China because property was once a primary engine of high growth, but the sector is now deeply in debt.
175,000: Maryland Gov. Wes Moore signed an executive order on Monday to pardonmore than 175,000 cannabis-related convictions. The use of marijuana remains a crime at the federal level, but 24 states have legalized it and another 14 allow marijuana use for medical purposes.
3,000: A nuclear watchdog reports that the world’s nine nuclear-armed states together spent $91.4 billion in 2023. That’s nearly$3,000 per second. The report says the United States spent $51.5 billion, which is “more than all the other nuclear-armed countries put together.” China spent $11.8 billion. Russia spent $8.3 billion.
24: Russia’s Vladimir Putin arrived in Pyongyang today for a two-day visit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. It’s Putin’sfirst trip to the DPRK in 24 years, and he and Kim are expected to reaffirm the friendship between their countries. Putin is likely to want ammunition (and maybe some soldiers) for his war in Ukraine. Kim would like to have Russian technologies that can boost his country’s missile program.
177: The Mexican government reported Sunday that some1.39 million people from 177 countries traveled through Mexico so far this year trying to reach the United States without entry papers. For reference, the United Nations has 193 member states.
Ian Bremmer addresses the audience at the 2024 US-Canada Summit in Toronto.
American and Canadian voters yearn for something they might never get
Is there a deep, secret yearning from American and Canadian voters for a radically open border? Do people really want Canada and the US to be more like the EU? OR, is border politics all about isolationism, security fears, and building walls? The results of an exclusive new poll from GZERO and Data Science will surprise you – and ought to be shaping the election campaigns in both countries.
We revealed part of the poll at the US-Canada Summit that I had the pleasure of co-hosting in Toronto, put on by the teams at Eurasia Group and BMO. Led off by our own Ian Bremmer and BMO’s CEO Darryl White, it included a remarkable collection of over 500 people, including political leaders from across the spectrum in both countries who debated, speechified, conversed, and argued.
Why are so many people so keen to discuss the US-Canada relationship? As Bremmer said, this is a hinge moment in history, with three wars raging — one in Ukraine, one in the Middle East, and one in the United States — a remark that caused gasps and nods. On top of that, 60+ elections are reshaping the world this year (Modi humbled in India, Macron in a showdown with the far right in France, Sunak shambolically slinking off in the UK). Meanwhile, China is threatening Taiwan, and AI is grinding its way through our economies and imaginations.
Gary Cohn, former director of the National Economic Council under Trump and the vice chairman of IBM, admitted that what worries him most is the collision between geopolitics and the economy. They are inextricably linked and making things worse. With the political bombs falling so close, people are desperately looking for a safe shelter, and that shelter is the US-Canada relationship. As Delaware Sen. Chris Coons said, squabbles between the two countries over tariffs or softwood lumber don’t add up to a pile of shell casing next to say China and Taiwan, which may be why the relationship is so often taken for granted or outright ignored. It is and remains one of the biggest bilateral trading relationships in the world.
Globalization is giving way to new forms of regionalism, or “friend-shoring with a vengeance.” But should the region have internal walls or not?
The mandate of the conference is to bring together people tired of partisan bickering, slogan swamping, and dizzying disinformationalizing – in other words, the bubble-blowing BS of everyday politics. They are urged to be authentic, honest, and, despite their political differences, get on with figuring out how to build something better and more secure than we have now. And they did.
Who joined in?
This is a partial list (pause for a long breath): Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Industry Minister Francois Phillippe Champagne, Treasury Board President Anita Anand, who settled a major border strike during the conference, Ontario and Saskatchewan Premiers Doug Ford and Scott Moe, Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, political wizards like David Axelrod from the Obama campaign and Christopher Liddell, the former White House Deputy Chief of Staff to Donald Trump.
Speaking of the Trump folks, there was Gary Cohn, mentioned above, giving Canada a shot and saying it can “tag along” on US economic progress. Former Bank of Canada and England Governor Mark Carney spoke about building together based on common values, and there was Mitch Landrieu, the Biden/Harris 2024 National Campaign Co-Chair, who was in full fight mode over Trump. They were joined by more than 150 CEOs, dozens of policy wonks, and experts on everything from AI, security, economic policy, and more.
There were tray loads of interesting insights and ideas:
- On Trade: The 2026 review of the USMCA is widely seen as the most important framework for the economic future of North America, and there are genuine fears that if Trump wins (Turns out, Ivermectin may actually be a political vaccine against felony convictions) and senses that trade imbalances with the US have not changed, he will rip it up and send the economies reeling with nasty and counterproductive tariffs.
- On the Inflation Reduction Act: Candid admissions from US politicians that protectionism and US industrial policy can sideswipe Canada, simply because Canada gets forgotten.
- On Biden vs. Trump: A quote attributed to Bill Clinton was repeated as to why Biden’s good economic record is not reflected in his polling: “Strong and wrong beats weak and right.”
- On why Democrats are losing working-class voters: I asked David Axelrod why Democrats and progressives spend so much time convincing themselves that people like Trump are not fit for office but so little time reflecting on why their own policies are failing to connect with so many people. He told me — and later told the audience — that Democrats treat working-class Americans with such condescension it’s like anthropologist Margaret Mead studying what were then called “primitive societies” and telling them, “You need to be more like us, and we can teach you.” A devastating critique.
- Here is another Axe moment: Why are some independent and conservative voters tuning out Trump?” “Having Trump as president is like living next to someone who runs a leaf blower 24/7.”
- Personnel is policy: Gary Cohn spoke about why you need to know the people in power. “Any president gets to make 2,800 appointments — they make them all — but ‘personnel is policy,’ so if you want to know what Trump will do, see who he is appointing.” By the way, expect the USMCA trade negotiator Robert Leitheiser, the very guy who insisted on the six-year trade review, to be a senior member of the Trump team,
- Christopher Liddell of Trump White House 1.0, admitted that Trump didn’t know what he was doing in the first six months of his first term, but that it’s different this time, and that the planning and policies are already well underway. We should expect the first six months of a Trump 2.o to be rapid, decisive, and consequential, as he only has one term. His first target will be China and … his political enemies.
- On defense spending: Mark Carney said Canada has no more excuses and must reach 2% spending on NATO – just weeks before the NATO summit in Washington.
But there was one issue that lurked beneath the surface of cross-border politics and wasn’t raised: Should the demand by many US politicians to close down their southern border be counterbalanced by a much quieter, almost secret demand from people to … open the Canadian border, EU style?
It is not as crazy as it sounds.
GZERO commissioned an exclusive poll from our partners at Data Sciences and asked: Would you support an EU-like arrangement between the US and Canada?
The results are fascinating.
Overall, 53% said they would support such an arrangement – 50% in Canada and 55% in the US, while 33% are neutral. And, get this, only 14% are against the idea. Not surprisingly, it breaks down on party lines: 71% of Biden supporters are far more supportive the idea, while 45% of Trump supporters want it. In Canada, it’s almost an even split: 50% LPC/NDP lime it while on the right, 54% of CPC/PPC support the idea.
The point? The longest undefended border in the world is still very defended, and millions of people would like to cross more easily, work more freely, and trade more efficiently. In 2022, US trade with Mexico was $855 billion, and with China it was $758 billion. With Canada? $908 billion.
So making US-Canada trade more efficient with an EU-style arrangement seems like a no-brainer. Last week, we all celebrated D-Day and the beginning of the fight for peace. So many people died in that bloody sacrifice, yet today, the French and the Germans, who fought two world wars that left millions on both sides slaughtered, can move, trade, and work freely across each other's borders in a way Americans and Canada can only dream about. It is baffling.
If anything is a warning about why closing borders and setting up tariffs is disastrous, look at the UK and Brexit, which has essentially tanked the UK economy. The Brexit-loving Conservatives under Rishi Sunak are now facing a potential political extinction event on par with the Canadian Conservative party of 1993, when Brian Mulroney went from winning the biggest majority in Canadian history to stepping down months before an election his party lost so badly they were left with two lonely seats.
We are heading into a US election and a possible Canadian election where low growth, high inflation, and fear of an unstable world might kill prosperity. Why aren’t the two best friends in the world campaigning on an idea that has proven to be one of Europe’s great drivers of growth? An open border.
We all get it. The politics of the southern border is driving politics at the northern border, but if voters can distinguish between the two, why can’t politicians?
They likely never will. And this may be the most 2024 political moment of all: Ignore the quiet ideas people want, and focus on the noisy fights no one can stand.