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Trump likely can’t steal the election, but he can make it dangerous
Donald Trump’s big Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday made news because of the racist wisecracks of an opening act, but jumpy Democrats seized on an off-the-cuff remark.
“I think with our little secret we are gonna do really well with the House,” Trump said, gesturing to House Speaker Mike Johnson. “Our little secret is having a big impact. He and I have a little secret. We will tell you what it is when the race is over.”
Democrats are so rattled by the prospect of Republicans trying to game the system on Election Night that they decided Trump was hinting at a secret plan to overturn the election.
On CNN, Democratic Congressman Dan Goldmanwarned of a plot to decide the election results in a House vote.
“I suspect … Donald Trump’s little secret plan with Mike Johnson is a backup plan for when he loses and he tries to go to the House of Representatives to throw out the Electoral College … and try to overturn this election.”
By hook or by crook
Johnson said later that Trump was talking about their get-out-the-vote plans, which makes sense in the context. But Democrats are concerned that Trump and his allies have a secret plan to try to take power, perhaps by forcing a vote in the House.
But it does not look easy. The contingent election is designed for situations where nobody wins a majority of Electoral College votes. The last time that happened was in 1824, when there were four presidential candidates. That should not happen next week, since no other candidates are on the ballot, but Trump is expected to try to get Republican legislatures to send alternative slates of electors in states he loses, setting up a situation where Congress could choose which electors to pick. Theoretically, Johnson could hold a special vote in the House of Representatives and make Trump president.
Trump likely does want to do that, says Richard Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA Law School.
“I imagine he will be trying to find ways to get to a contingent election in the House — maybe that’s the little secret — but with our existing rules, that would be very hard to do as it would require finding a way to assure that Harris would not have a majority in each house,” he said.
Nervous about the Supreme Court
It looks highly unlikely, in part because it would require the cooperation of many Republicans who would be reluctant to overturn clear results from voters. And the Electoral Count Reform Act, which was passed with bipartisan support, tightened the rules around certification. Trump is more likely to try to flip a close state in the courts by challenging some contested ballots, as happened in 2000, when George W. Bush prevailed over Al Gore after the Supreme Court ruled that Bush had won Florida’s Electoral College votes.
“If the race is as tight as it was in 2000, like Bush v. Gore tight, then there will likely be a recount in a state that matters, and issues may get litigated all the way to the Supreme Court,” says Hasen.
“The 2020 election was not close like 2000. It was over 10,000 ballots difference, and multiple states mattered. If that’s what we see, and Trump loses, then I expect Trump will try litigation and political strategies to try to change the results to his favor.”
There are 115 voting lawsuits open at various courts. If the Republicans can find a cause to get to the Supreme Court, they might hope that the 6-3 Republican majority of justices will rule in their favor. The court surprised observers by ruling in Trump’s favor in the presidential immunity case, and on Wednesday, the court approved a controversial Republican purge of voters, so Democrats are nervous about what might happen if Trump manages to get a case to the court.
Drop boxes firebombed
The polls could not be closer, and both sides will have armies of lawyers standing by on election night to try to seek advantage.
“Although recounts very rarely change the election outcome, and the courts have consistently rebuffed such shenanigans from the Trump team in the past, these lawsuits will be headline-grabbing events and will perpetuate uncertainty,” says Natasha Gaither, a researcher at Eurasia Group.
Even if Trump’s lawyers do not prevail, that uncertainty could lead to violence.
“We are likely to witness sporadic clashes between law enforcement and extremist partisans on either side of the aisle as long as certification of the results is deferred by legal fights,” says Gaither.
Election night will be tense, with angry partisans gathering outside counting places as mail-in and absentee ballots are tabulated.
Trump keeps telling his supporters — without evidence — that the election could be stolen by cheating Democrats, and they believe him. Ballot drop boxes were firebombed on Monday, for example. More than 7 in 10 Americans are worried about election-related violence.
It would be nice to tell them they needn’t worry, but they are right to do so.
House Speaker Mike Johnson
Johnson avoids government shutdown, sidesteps Trump’s demands
But Donald Trump is unlikely to thank him, as the deal came at the cost of Republicans dropping the SAVE Act, an immigration proposal that included new proof-of-citizenship requirements for voter registration. Trump has told Congress not to pass a spending plan without “every ounce” of the proposal and has yet to comment since it was dropped.
Beyond the presidential election, Johnson was also likely motivated to protect Republicans in down-ballot races in November.
The agreed-upon plan includes “only the extensions that are absolutely necessary” besides an additional $231 million to boost Secret Service protections for the candidates during the upcoming presidential election and into next year.
The deal extends government funding through Dec. 20, all but ensuring that the lame-duck period between the election and the inauguration of a new Congress is engulfed in spending disputes. Just in time for the holidays!
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks during Day 2 of the Republican National Convention (RNC), at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 16, 2024.
US House speaker pulls bill that would avoid a government shutdown
Too clever by half, Mike. With a US government shutdown looming on Oct. 1, and the election to follow in November, US House Speaker Mike Johnson had a plan.
He proposed that a fresh six-month government funding bill be tied to a new election security measure that would require people to provide proof of citizenship in order to vote. That bill grew out of longstanding but unsubstantiated Republican concerns about non-citizens voting in sizable numbers.
Donald Trump, who’s built much of his campaign on grievances about illegal immigration, has called for a shutdown if Congress won’t pass the election security measure.
But that seems to have backfired. Democrats want Johnson to instead work on a bipartisan standalone government funding measure. A handful of GOP lawmakers are also opposed – some because the spending bill doesn’t address their deficit concerns, others because it would freeze Pentagon budgets at current levels, handcuffing defense planners.
Lacking the votes, Johnson pulled the bill ahead of a scheduled vote on Wednesday.
He plans to work on the defectors this weekend and may still go ahead with a vote next week. But with a razor-thin GOP majority, it’s a gamble, which means both parties are engaged in a game of chicken to avoid a deeply unpopular government shutdown just weeks before the election.
U.S. Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA), the latest House Republican nominee for House Speaker, reacts to former Speaker nominee and current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) voting for Johnson during another round of voting to pick a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., October 25, 2023.
Republicans set sights on divorce laws
A growing cadre of GOP social conservatives as senior as House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senator JD Vancesay no-fault divorce has undermined family stability, and they attribute a litany of social ills to it. Vance told high schoolers in California in 2022 that “even violent” marriages should continue in some cases. Johnson and his spouse, meanwhile, are in a covenant marriage, a rare legal institution available in only three states that essentially waives no-fault divorce rights preemptively.
Ronald Reagan signed the first no-fault divorce law in the US as California’s governor in 1969, allowing one spouse to end a marriage unilaterally. Before then, anyone who wished to end a marriage needed to prove their partner had committed an offense like adultery, abandonment, or abuse. The criteria could be tough to meet — in some places, a woman could prove she had been beaten by her husband, for example, but be forced to stay married if the jury did not find he acted with “cruelty.”
The stats speak for themselves when it comes to women’s safety: Between 1976 and 1985, as no-fault divorce laws proliferated, domestic violence against both men and women fell 30%, while the number of women murdered by partners fell 10%. Research suggests that over an even longer term, suicide rates for women declined between 8 and 16%.
A whopping 81% of Americans say divorce is “morally acceptable,” according to Gallup, but they actually aren’t getting divorced that often: Divorce rates are near 40-year lows. Still, you know, maybe talk to a lawyer if you’re unhappily married before it’s too late.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) talks to reporters after surviving a vote to remove him from the Speaker’s position, Washington, DC, May 8, 2024. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) introduced a motion to vacate the Speaker’s office, which was defeated by a motion to table the issue immediately afterward.
Vibes-based lawmaking isn’t helping us!
With so many problems in the world right now, it seems odd to spend time trying to solve ones that don’t exist.
But that’s exactly what happened this week when House Speaker Mike Johnson proposed a new law to crack down on non-citizens voting in US federal elections.
The legislation, known as the SAVE Act, would outlaw non-citizen voting – which is already illegal – and require proof of citizenship in order to register to vote.
Now, some people, mostly Republicans, say it’s not unreasonable to expect adults to produce ID before making a decision about who should lead the “free world.” Others, mostly Democrats, point to evidence that voter ID requirements – particularly for passports or birth certificates – tend to suppress eligible voter turnout, particularly for minority voters. There are fair arguments on both sides.
The Supreme Court, for its part, has struck down a state-led requirement for citizenship documents, and a North Carolina court is weighing the issue of voter ID more broadly as we speak.
But leave all that aside for a moment. There’s a more fundamental problem with Johnson’s bill. It’s aimed at ghosts.
Asked about the scale of the problem of non-citizen voting, Johnson said:
“The answer is that it’s unanswerable.”
“We all know intuitively,” he explained, “that a lot of illegals are voting in federal elections.”
This vibes-based intuition parrots a longstanding talking point of GOP boss Donald Trump, who has complained – falsely – that voter fraud cost him the popular vote in 2016 and the election itself in 2020. With just six months until his rematch with Joe Biden, Trump and his allies are keen to seed the idea that voter fraud – particularly among the rapidly rising undocumented migrant population – will decide the outcome. With 60% of Republicans worried about the credibility of the electoral system, Trump knows his audience.
But the question for Johnson is not unanswerable. The answer is that there is, in fact, no evidence for these claims.
In 2017, for example, the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU looked closely at the 2016 election, a contest in which Donald Trump claimed he had lost the popular vote because 3-5 million illegal immigrants had voted for Hillary Clinton.
After reviewing 23 million voter names, in 42 precincts, in 12 states, how many instances of non-citizen voting did the Brennan study find?
Thirty. That’s 0.0001% of the votes.
It turns out non-citizens, in perpetual danger of deportation, aren’t eager to write their names down on a voting register, leaving indelible evidence of a federal crime.
This tracks with other studies of voter fraud, nearly all of which show that it’s exceedingly rare. The state of Georgia, for example, conducted a review of its voter rolls in 2022 and found that of the four million votes cast by Georgians in the midterms of that year, there were 17 instances of voter fraud.
That’s not to say there aren’t real concerns about the election. How might AI distort voter perceptions of the candidates? Will foreign powers try to sway voters’ choices? Will election workers be safe? Nearly 40% of them say they have experienced threats, violence, or harassment, in part by people riled up with false narratives about fraud.
But instead of addressing those serious worries, the Speaker of the House is proposing to Make Illegal Things Illegal Again™, based on information he does not have, about a phenomenon that doesn’t exist.
This kind of vibes-based lawmaking isn’t going to SAVE us from anything.
What's next after MTG fails in bid to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we're watching in US Politics this week: More turmoil in the House.
Georgia member Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's made quite a name for herself as an outspoken opponent of Republican leadership and a prolific fundraiser online, this week triggered another motion to vacate the speaker. The second this year. Only this time it was against Mike Johnson, the speaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after he was removed during a motion to vacate earlier in the year.
The big change this time was that Democrats rallied to Johnson's side, defending him against the Republicans that tried to take him out and resoundingly defeating the measure, which really takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of future rebellions against the Republican speaker at least for the rest of 2024. Democrats and moderate Republicans are both tired of this level of chaos and want to defang the Republicans, who want to make life harder for the leader of the House of Representatives. That doesn't mean they're all allies now however. Mike Johnson is going to spend the rest of the year pushing very partisan measures across the floor of the House of Representatives in order to draw a contrast between Republicans and Democrats that voters understand when they go to cast a ballot in November. There will be a very small number of must pass legislation coming up.
Right now, Congress is working on reauthorization of the FAA. Later in the year, they're going to have to once again pass a budget bill to keep the government funded. Those will probably be very bipartisan measures. And one of the big ironies of the extreme polarization that's happening in the House, including within the Republican faction, is that the House is now effectively functioning more like the bipartisan Senate, which requires a supermajority of 60 senators, and which is always a bipartisan coalition in order to get almost anything done.
That's now the situation that the House finds itself in. The House is typically the significantly more partisan body. But because of the Republican dissenters against Johnson, they've turned the House into a much more bipartisan place, which really won't get much done this year. So one lesson from Marjorie Taylor Greene this week is that if she comes to the king, she better not miss, she came for the king and she missed. And now she's going to find herself on the outs with the Republicans, probably for the rest of the year.
Thanks for watching. Tune in next week.
- Taylor Greene gets sidelined – for now ›
- Greene sees red over Johnson’s support for Ukraine ›
- Mike Johnson has a plan to avert the shutdown – will it work? ›
- Meet Mike Johnson, US House Speaker & DC's most Googled person ›
- Trump bigfoots House Speaker Johnson ›
- Chaos on Campus: Speaker Johnson's visit fans the flames at Columbia as protests go global ›
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaking at a press conference at the U.S. Capitol.
Mike Johnson’s seat is still hot
But that doesn’t mean Johnson can relax. A strong majority of Democrats provided the votes that spared him, and a number of them, including Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), said this week that Johnson can’t count on them to save him from future challenges.
In addition, Donald Trump, who didn’t favor Johnson’s decision to give US aid for Ukraine a House vote, isn’t offering Johnson any guarantees either. Following Greene’s failed insurrection, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee posted on Truth Social that “this is not the time” for conservative Republicans to defenestrate Johnson. “We’re not in a position” to vote him out, but “at some point, we may very well be.”
The bottom line: Both Democrats and Trump will continue to press Johnson for concessions at every turn. His position remains safe for now, but the speaker of the House is still waiting to exhale.Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Mike Johnson (R-La.) attends a news conference at Columbia University. April 24, 2024.
Chaos on Campus: Speaker Johnson's visit fans the flames at Columbia as protests go global
“There are so many cameras on campus my mom is going to find out I vape on the cover of the New York Times,” said a senior at Columbia University who I shall keep anonymous for her mother’s sake. But her remark accurately summarizes what it's like on campus these days.
On Tuesday, the cameras were out for House Speaker Mike Johnson and several other GOP lawmakers, who held a press conference about antisemitism on the steps of Columbia’s iconic Low Library.
Johnson demanded that the White House crack down on campus protests and called for the resignation of Columbia President Nemat "Minouche" Shafik.
“If these threats and intimidation are not stopped,” he warned, looking out at the two dozen or so tents of the Gaza Solidarity Encampment erected a week ago, “there is an appropriate time for the National Guard.”
Down below, hundreds of students booed and chanted, “Mike, you suck!”
“All students deserve protection, but Jewish students need to be able to go to class,” said House Education Committee Chair Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., in an interview with GZERO following the press conference. “Congress is investigating to see if further government action is necessary to ensure the encampment is cleared.”
With the end of the semester just days away, many Jewish students have left campus early or are participating in classes online because the protests on and outside of campus have made them feel unsafe.
The night before, the university extended the deadline for protesters to clear the encampment or face possible police action after organizers agreed to remove several tents and non-Columbia protesters from the encampment.
But the protesters continue to demand three things: that the university’s endowment divest from all companies and organizations that do business with Israel or are profiting from the war, that the university publish a list of all its investments, and that the school grant amnesty for the student protesters who have been suspended in earlier crackdowns on Gaza-related protests.
“We need the university to meet our demands. That is the only way the encampment will be moved,” said students representing the protesters during a press conference. The students have vowed to stay at least through graduation on May 15 if their demands aren’t met.
Outside of Columbia, the encampment and arrests have inspired student protests around the globe. Twenty protesters were arrested at the University of Texas campus in Austin, as new protests continued erupting in places like Pittsburgh and San Antonio. Solidarity encampments have sprung up at over 40 colleges in the United States and as far afield as universities in Cairo, Paris, and Sydney, Australia.
Tomorrow brings what could be a sizable pro-Israel protest led by several prominent Christian conservative activists in the early evening and then another tense night of negotiations for the encampment.
One thing is for sure: The cameras will only multiply as this standoff comes to a head — so students who don't want their parents to catch them vaping should probably stay home.