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No-show Trump wins first GOP debate
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.
Who were the big winners and the big losers from this week's Republican debate?
Three clear winners were probably Vivek Ramaswamy, who's done pretty well in making a name for himself as a first time politician, and came across as likable and energetic, full of some fresh ideas that are probably going to appeal to a lot of Republican voters who were otherwise thinking about supporting President Trump. Two is Nikki Haley, the former UN ambassador and governor of South Carolina, who had herself a pretty good night scoring some points against Ramaswamy on foreign policy, and coming across as competent and credible. And of course, the third winner is Donald Trump, who didn't show up but kind of dominated the proceedings anyway and continues to be the front-runner even after the debate.
On the loser side, you had a couple of people who just didn't have great nights. Chris Christie got resoundingly booed for his strategy of attacking Trump and presenting himself as the alternative, or trying to create space for somebody else to get in that lane. Mike Pence really did nothing to distinguish himself. In fact, I kind of forgot he was up there at times, as I've forgotten that he's even running for president right now. Same with Tim Scott, who I think has a very great story and is a very likable guy, but just isn't resonating with a lot of Republicans.
And the biggest loser was probably Ron DeSantis, who's presented himself as the most credible alternative to Trump so far but has really been tailing off in the polling, has shown himself to be vulnerable to people like Ramaswamy, and last night didn't really do much to change that narrative. He kind of has his line of attack against the cultural left, which resonates with a lot of Republican voters. But there's no real reason to prefer him over President Trump at this point, and there probably aren't enough Republican voters who will do so, that will help propel him to the next level.
There won't be any votes cast in this election until Iowa, which is next year. And in the meantime, there's going to be another debate, probably also without Trump, in California, in late September. So, stay tuned for an entertaining Republican primary, but one that kind of feels like they're play-acting a little bit without the dominant force, former President Trump, up on stage.
How the Trump documents case compares to Biden’s, Pence’s, and Clinton’s
In a sit-down interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier on Monday night, former President Donald Trump reiterated his claim that he’s being unfairly persecuted by his political adversaries for retaining classified documents. Meanwhile, other leaders like President Joe Biden, former Vice President Mike Pence, and then-Secretary of State and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton are allowed to walk away scot-free after engaging in similar behavior, Trump claimed, calling it a “double standard.”
This is a defense he’s used numerous times to discredit accusations against him by painting himself as the victim of a “witch hunt” by the Democrat-controlled “deep state” to take down the Republican frontrunner – a deep state that also ignores or covers up misdeeds committed by Biden, members of Biden’s family, and other former officials.
A solid majority of Republican leaders and voters (as well as more than half of independents) buy into this narrative, calling Trump’s latest indictment “politically motivated,” characterizing the US justice system as “two-tiered,” and accusing the Biden administration of “weaponizing” the Justice Department against conservatives in order to “steal” the next election. Most Republicans believe Biden is guilty not only of the same crimes Trump is accused of but also of corruption – and that the FBI is looking the other way.
Does this double standard really exist? Or was Trump’s behavior so extraordinary as to warrant criminal charges while the other cases didn’t?
Let’s look at the facts of each classified documents case and decide.
The Trump case
In May 2021, employees at the National Archives and Records Administration realized they were missing records from the Trump administration belonging to the US government and asked the former president to return them.
After nearly a year of denials, negotiations, and delay tactics, Trump eventually turned over 15 boxes containing 184 classified documents that had been illegally taken from the White House and stored at his private club/home/office in Mar-a-Lago.
Concerned that he was still withholding some material with national security implications, handling it carelessly, and misleading them about it, NARA asked the FBI to step in. As a result of the FBI investigation, which corroborated NARA’s suspicions, the Justice Department secured a grand jury subpoena in May demanding the return of all remaining material in Trump’s possession.
Trump then proceeded to ignore and obstruct said subpoena, despite being repeatedly urged by his advisers to comply.
In June 2022, DOJ officials paid a visit to Mar-a-Lago, where they were handed 38 more classified documents along with a sworn statement signed by Trump’s lawyers promising that all sensitive material had been turned over. However, investigators had collected enough evidence to doubt the veracity of that affidavit, including security footage from Mar-a-Lago corroborating the testimony of Walt Nauta – a former White House valet turned body man who told agents the former president had personally tasked him with hiding boxes from investigators and lying to his own lawyers about it.
That August, the FBI executed a warrant to search Mar-a-Lago, where they found an additional 103 classified documents, reportedly including “highly sensitive” material about foreign countries’ military and nuclear capabilities.
In total, 60 of the 325 classified items recovered were marked top secret. Days after Trump formally announced he’d run for president in 2024, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to oversee the investigation into Trump given the “extraordinary circumstances.”
Earlier this month, a South Florida grand jury indicted Trump on 37 criminal counts carrying potential prison sentences, including willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, and false statements and representations – the first time in history a US president has been federally indicted (but most assuredly not the last). At his arraignment on June 13, Trump pleaded not guilty to all charges. The trial is set to begin on August 14.
The Biden case
In November 2022, President Joe Biden’s personal attorneys conducted a voluntary search of the president’s spaces and found a total of 16 classified documents from his time as vice president – six in a storage space at his home in Wilmington, Delaware, and 10 in a locked closet in an office he formerly kept at a University of Pennsylvania center in Washington, DC. Biden’s team turned over the Obama-era documents (reportedly including “intelligence memos and briefing materials” about politically sensitive foreign countries) to the National Archives the next morning and submitted to consent searches. Garland then appointed a special counsel to investigate whether criminal behavior took place.
While the investigation is still ongoing, there is no evidence as of yet that Biden personally engaged in knowing and willful conduct to retain the documents, prevent their retrieval, or obstruct the investigation. Not that a sitting president can be indicted anyway (as special counsel Robert Mueller concluded after finding Trump may have obstructed justice during the Russia investigation).
The Pence case
When the news broke about Biden’s discovery, former Vice President Mike Pence searched his residence and found about a dozen classified documents, which his lawyers promptly reported and returned to the National Archives. Pence subsequently gave federal agents consent to search his home without a warrant, which turned up one more classified document. After a full investigation, the Justice Department uncovered no evidence of intent and declined to charge Pence for retaining documents.
The Clinton case
Seven years ago, Hillary Clinton was found to have used an unsecured, private email server located in her home to store about 60,000 personal and work emails. The FBI identified 110 email conversations among the roughly 30,000 work emails containing information that was likely classified at the time it was sent, including eight that contained top-secret information. Three additional email chains containing classified information were identified among the other 30,000 emails. There’s no evidence that any actual classified documents had been shared, and only one email had classified markings (whose significance Clinton was reportedly not aware of).
The FBI investigation concluded that Clinton and her team had been “extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information” and committed “potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information.”
Investigators did not establish clear intent to deliberately retain classified information and withhold it from the government. Based on an exhaustive analysis of all previous similar cases and the facts of the case in question, then-FBI Director James Comey famously determined that “no reasonable prosecutor” would bring criminal charges against Clinton, calling her behavior negligent but not willful.
No comparison, no double standard
Equal treatment under the law – one of the bedrocks of the rule of law – doesn’t require equal outcomes for different cases. In fact, the opposite is true. Every case must be judged on its own merits. While it’s true that other politicians have faced no legal consequences for retaining documents, Trump’s case is different in key ways that justify the extraordinary federal charges brought against him by special counsel Jack Smith.
Investigations about the retention of classified material always seek to do two things. First and foremost, recover the lost material. Second, figure out whether the retention constituted a knowing and willful violation of the law. In the vast majority of cases, including Biden’s and Pence’s, as soon as someone notices they have documents they shouldn’t, they simply turn them in. People with security clearances make mistakes like the rest of us. Having been remediated and accidental rather than intentional, this conduct often results in no criminal charges.
In Trump’s case, there is a mountain of evidence showing Trump’s personal intent to withhold and mishandle sensitive and classified documents – and to knowingly and willfully obstruct the government’s attempts to recover them. There really is no comparison with the behavior of Clinton, Pence, and Biden – none of whom defied a federal subpoena to turn over classified materials containing some of the nation’s most sensitive national security secrets and then tried to hide them from federal investigators and their own lawyers, as Trump is credibly alleged to have done. The case that comes closest is Clinton’s, but from what we know, Trump’s misconduct went far beyond hers.
In fact, given the political context and historical precedent, had Trump complied with any of the several requests to turn over the documents, it’s very likely he wouldn’t have been charged – just like Pence and Clinton weren’t charged and like Biden probably won’t be. However, given the facts as alleged, any other American would’ve been charged in much the same way as Trump regardless of their political status.
Two wrongs don’t make a right
In the view of Trump and his supporters, whether he’s innocent or guilty is beside the point – insofar as he’s being prosecuted by a Justice Department under the control of the opposing party for something others supposedly got away with, any case against him is automatically politically motivated and illegitimate, regardless of the facts, the evidence, and the law. Never mind that it was a grand jury in Republican-leaning Miami – not a politician, a prosecutor, or a bureaucrat – that indicted Trump.
The long-standing norm against politicized prosecutions is not a norm against prosecuting politicians – it’s a norm against prosecuting anyone based not on the merits of the case against them but on political considerations.
Declining to prosecute Trump for conduct that would get any other American charged solely because he happened to have served as president, he’s running for office in 2024, or others may have gotten away with similar stuff in the past would be the real miscarriage of justice.
Ian Explains: Trump's Republican competition
It’s hard to believe, but the 2024 race for US president is already kicking off. With months to go before the first primary ballots are cast, the candidates are already jockeying for position, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
President Joe Biden’s announced his re-election campaign in April, and his nomination on the Democratic side is a foregone conclusion. But on the Republican side, the race is a lot more interesting.
Right now, the candidate to beat is undoubtedly Donald Trump. He’s polling higher among Republican primary voters than any of his competitors. He has a ton of cash on hand, and virtually no one within the party is willing to criticize him publicly for fear of alienating his base. If Trump is the nominee, Republicans may have to fight an uphill battle because they did not do well in the 2018, 2020, or 2022 elections when Trump dominated the conversation.
But if contenders like Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, or Mike Pence secure the nomination, the election becomes a referendum on Biden’s job as president. With the president’s approval rating hovering in the high 30s, or low 40s, that might be a much easier battle for the GOP to try and fight.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Republican identity crisis: Chris Christie vs. Donald Trump
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Republican identity crisis: Chris Christie vs. Donald Trump
The only way out is through. That's how former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie views the 2024 GOP primary, and more specifically, how he views its frontrunner, former President Donald Trump.
"I think there's one lane for the nomination, and right now Donald Trump's in the front of that lane," Christie tells Ian Bremmer in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World. "And if you want to get in the front of that lane, you better intervene and go right through him because, otherwise, trying to go around him? I don't think it's a strategy."
Bremmer invited Christie onto the show to take a big-picture look at how things are already stacking up for the upcoming primary fight, and one thing is clear: It won't be pretty. From Christie's own ... um ... complicated ... past with the man whom he was first to legitimize back in 2015, to the more pressing issues facing the country today, Bremmer and Christie cover it all. They also discuss the news of the week, with Christie expressing confidence that Republicans and Democrats won't drive off the debt-ceiling cliff with hands clasped (or slapping each other).
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Fmr. U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on the day of his court appearance in New York after being indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. Photo taken in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., April 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Trump leads early, NPR & PBS quit Twitter, stopgap for Darien, global warming juices baseballs
49.3: FiveThirtyEight launched its national polling averages for the 2024 Republican presidential race this week, and Donald Trump leads the pack with 49.3% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails well behind with 26.2%, while fmr. VP Mike Pence and fmr. UN ambassador Nikki Haley are at 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Research finds that national polls done a year ahead of the election can reasonably predict the nominee.
2: NPR will stop posting on Twitter, becoming the first major outlet to ditch the bluebird since the platform began labeling news orgs that receive government funding as “state-affiliated media.” That designation is normally applied to outlets in autocratic countries that allow no editorial independence. Twitter CEO Elon Musk recently told the BBC (another “state-affiliated” media outlet) that he may change the label to “publicly funded.” PBS followed NPR's lead on Wednesday, so two major US media outlets have now said "bye-bye birdie."
88,000: The US, Panama, and Colombia are launching a two-month campaign to stem the northward flow of migrants across the perilous Darien Gap, which spans the Colombian-Panamanian border. Since January, more than 88,000 people have braved the crossing, over six times the number from the same period last year.
1: Did the Sports Almanac account for this? A recent study analyzing the past six decades of baseball and temperature data finds that thinner air from global warming accounted for 1% of home runs from 2010-2019. The number is expected to jump to 10% by 2100 – though the data is inconclusive on whether this can help the Mets.
Trump's indictment is problematic
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, and at least a few comments from me on the Trump indictment. You didn't hear anything from me about this a couple weeks ago. Of course, former President Trump had announced that he was going to get arrested a week ago Tuesday and when I heard that, I thought that that one thing that guaranteed was that he was not going to be arrested a week ago Tuesday, so he didn't really need to talk about it. But then after that passed and nothing happened, he said, "I'm not going to get arrested. They don't have a case. They've thrown away. These guys are idiots." And then I started to get worried. I'm thinking, well, if he's saying it's not going to happen, that means may well. And of course that is where we now are, that for the first time in American history though, this happens all over the world in many other countries, but the US had been exceptional in this regard.
No US president, sitting or former, had been indicted. Can't say that anymore. Now, former President Trump has indeed been indicted and he will surrender and he will show up in New York and he will be fingerprinted and get his mugshot and all of those things that will both excite and infuriate to various degrees, people across the United States.
I will say, first of all, that you should look at the polls to start. What do people in the United States think about this and that should be a cause for concern. Recent, I think it's Quinnipiac Poll showing that well over 90% of Republicans believe that this decision to indict is political, is not on the basis of fair application of rule of law. 70% of Independents believe that. 30% of Democrats believe that. So, it's interesting. This is not just a matter of political divide. It's also that for those that focus on all of the various cases that are being brought, that have been brought against Trump. The matter of Stormy Daniels, this effort to break campaign finance rules and to cover up an affair in the run up to the election, and certainly, I mean, lots and lots of people believe that the case must be solid. In other words, the evidence against him, to be able to proceed with an indictment. But that doesn't mean that they take it seriously. In other words, if this were another political figure, would you bring up this case? Would you indict? Would you consider it a felony? And there, the witch hunt that Trump is talking about, is something that is broadly aligned with by Americans, whether or not they like Trump.
And of course, one of the most important points there is the unifying factor that this has for Trump among Republicans themselves. Republicans, many of whom had been trying to differentiate, distinguish themselves, even criticize the former president, all coming right back and saying, "This is a travesty. It's a breach of justice. How dare they go after Trump in this way?" People, like Mike Pence, for example, who certainly seems to be running for president. People like Governor Ron DeSantis. People like Mike Pompeo. I mean, almost everybody out there was talking to Chris Christie the other day who is very, very critical of former President Trump, but also believes that this is a politicized case and that's a challenge. I think that's a challenge in terms of really dampening any potential for momentum for other erstwhile candidates against Trump on the GOP side.
Trump can still lose the nomination. But if you ask me today, is he more likely to get the nomination than he was yesterday? And he's already well ahead in name recognition and polls across the board of every other candidate, the answer is yeah. You'd probably bet that Trump is going to.
Now, a lot of people out there that can't stand Trump say, "Well, that's great because he's going to be the weaker candidate among Republicans against Biden, and we just want Biden to win."
My response, no matter who you support for the upcoming election, is that the potential for Trump to become president if he gets nomination is real, and he's going to be running against an 82-year-old Biden. And I think that for the safety and stability of the country, as well as the way that the United States is perceived by others across the world, Trump getting the nomination is a assertively a problematic and damaging thing. Any other Republican would be a better and more stabilizing outcome. So, I absolutely think that this is unbalanced problematic.
Now, beyond all of that, the fact that Trump has been indicted means that everyone is going to be talking about him pretty much nonstop over, when we talk about domestic politics, going forward. It really is kind of the beginning of another period of massive divisiveness and abnormality after many were trying to focus more on policy and governance for the last year, year and a half.
I think that also means that other countries around the world will now take much more seriously the possibility that this wasn't just an aberration 2016 to 2020 the United States, but that indeed there's something much deeper and more systematic afoot, which means more hedging behavior for other countries around the world, allies around the world, and that's going to make Biden's job more difficult in terms of foreign policy.
Now, we're talking about this in isolation. We don't even know exactly what these charges are yet, though I don't think that's going to make much of a difference in terms of the voting public in the United States when it comes up. I do think what will make more of a difference is what happens with other cases that are much more significant in their seriousness and their impact in terms of Trump on US democracy.
In particular, the case in Georgia where you have on tape the fact that he wanted Republicans on the ground to find him votes to be able to overturn the outcome. Also, more broadly, the effort by the special investigator in the Department of Justice, around the events of January 6th, as well as to a lesser degree, in terms of impact and importance handling of classified materials.
So, this is by far the weakest, the least serious piece of the cases that are being brought against him. It makes it much easier for him to talk about a witch hunt. It aligns the GOP with him. But of course, it doesn't mean he's out of legal trouble on the other cases. But to the extent that Trump's entire political ascent has been about grievance politics, has been about us versus them, and tribalization of the US political space, not to mention capturing maximum audience attention for everything he does. I actually think perversely, very perversely, that this indictment on the Stormy Daniels case plays to his benefit and not to his disadvantage.
That's where we are politically in the United States right now and that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Nikki Haley's in, but GOP primary remains Trump/DeSantis showdown
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
How does Nikki Haley's campaign affect the state of the 2024 race?
Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador under the Trump administration, announced her 2024 presidential campaign this week, becoming the first Republican to challenge former President Donald Trump. Haley said in 2021 that she would not run for president if Trump were to do so, a comment that has already drawn flak from the former president, but her shift in approach reflects how far Trump has fallen within the GOP over the last two years. Trump has looked much weaker in 2022 than he did in 2021, and weaker still since his candidates largely flopped in the midterm elections last November. The announcement of his presidential bid soon after drew big headlines for a day before being largely forgotten, and he had difficulty consolidating support ahead of his first campaign event in South Carolina last month.
He does lead multi-candidate polls in a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary, but he's consistently lost head-to-head polls against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who right now looks like the person to beat. DeSantis is widely expected to announce a presidential bid this spring, and Haley's announcement could help him in the short term by drawing Trump's ire to another target. However, the Trump/DeSantis showdown is shaping up to be the central conflict of the 2024 GOP primary with both men already having taken verbal swipes at each other. Given the heightened focus on the two men, Haley is likely hoping to position herself either as a vice presidential candidate or to stay in the race long enough for Trump and/or DeSantis to flame out. She will not be the last person to consider this strategy as other governors, including Brian Kemp, Glenn Youngkin, Greg Abbott, and Chris Sununu could also test out the waters later this year.
Former VP Mike Pence could also get in, meaning that this could shape up to be a very competitive primary, with candidates designed to appeal to a different slice of the Republican electorate. Trump maintains a base of diehard supporters, DeSantis is trying to position himself as the post-Trump populist, Pence appeals to evangelicals, and Haley hopes to win over establishment Reagan Republicans with a pro-business focus and a strong foreign policy stance, and a promise of a more stable political environment.
Less of a question today is who these Republicans would face in the general election. President Biden is looking very likely to run, and he is unlikely to face a primary challenger if he does. Biden's biggest challenges will be the state of the economy and his age. Which could become a major issue if Republicans nominate someone much younger. Political scientists have found that there is a penalty for older politicians that grows with their age, which may not seem obvious, given in the US, given the advanced age of many of our political leaders, but does hold generally around the globe.
Biden's "mini" document scandal could hurt his position with Dems
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
What are the implications of the unfolding Biden document scandal?
Revelations that President Biden mishandled classified documents as a senator and vice president are the first major scandal of what has really been an otherwise pretty squeaky-clean administration. FBI officials have uncovered caches of documents in Biden's Delaware home and at his think tank, the Penn Biden Center. Media outlets like CNN have kept the story in the headline for weeks, even sending a helicopter to circle his house during an FBI search, adding to the drama.
The most immediate impact of these revelations is to undermine the criticism that Biden levied against former President Trump for his own document scandal, even though Trump had squirreled away a far larger number of sensitive documents and blocked federal investigators from getting access to them. Although the DOJ has appointed special counsels to review both cases, it is very unlikely that either president will be charged with document mishandling, especially now that it has come out that former vice president, Mike Pence, had his own stash of classified documents stored at an insecure location at his home.
And it's probably only a matter of time before we start hearing about this phenomenon from other former officials. After all, the US government has a famous habit of over-classifying sensitive materials, and we don't know if these records are nuclear codes or the results of Biden's cholesterol tests. While Trump could still face charges of obstruction of justice, Biden probably has the most to lose here, as the mini scandal could ultimately weaken his position within the Democratic Party. Though Biden is unlikely to face a serious primary challenger if he chooses to run, many Democrats have publicly and privately expressed concern about his advanced age. And any negative coverage could create an opening for opportunistic Democrats to increase the pressure on him to step aside for a younger generation.
Regardless, the House Republican investigation into the document mishandling will be lengthy and wide-ranging, including looking at the number of documents, who had access to them, the timeline of the revelations, and whether Biden created a national security threat through his treatment of the documents. This investigation will be tied up in other investigations like the one into Biden's ne'er-do-well son, Hunter, who lived in the house where the documents were found, or into Hunter's business connections to China, which Republicans allege may have affected US policy.
Although the document investigations will have many chapters, Biden's base is unlikely to be drawn in and many Democrats will see it as a political stunt, even if the sustained negative attention ultimately diminishes his reputation in the eyes of the public.
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