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India's Home Minister Amit Shah and India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh present a garland to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters celebrate the Bihar state assembly election results, at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, November 14, 2025.
Hard Numbers: India’s Modi has excellent election day, US agrees to cut Swiss tariffs, 12-year manhunt for Assad ally ends, & More
200: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition is headed for a landslide win in Bihar, securing over 200 of 243 seats in a key test of the leader’s popularity ahead of major state and national elections. The victory strengthens his fragile federal coalition and weakens the opposition
15%: The US and Switzerland reached a deal to bring tariffs down on the European country from 39% to 15%, lowering the price of pharmaceuticals, gold, watches, and chocolate that Americans import from the Swiss. The high rate was in part because of the high trade surplus that Switzerland had with the United States. The US also cut levies on certain products from four Latin American countries.
12: A 12-year manhunt for a Syrian official accused of war crimes has finally come to an end, after Austrian officials indicted him for torture. Brig. Gen. Khaled al-Halabi, who hid in plain sight in Paris and Vienna, was captured last December, but was only charged on Wednesday in connection with actions he took while helping to quell the Arab Spring from 2011 to 2013.
10: Canada is still taking Trump’s missives against them personally: October marked the 10th consecutive month of decline in the number of Canadians traveling to the United States. Air travel fell 24% compared to this month last year, and car travel by 30%. The slowdown is hurting some US businesses.
20,000: Germany’s government has created a new military service plan aimed at boosting the number of troops by 20,000 within the next year, taking the total enlisted above 200,000. Under the plan, all 18-year-old men will have to fill out a questionnaire on whether they are suitable to serve and, from 2027, undergo medical screening. Germany’s military past means it has been reluctant to remilitarize in the post-war period – until now.
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- What We’re Watching: Modi tested in India elections, Iraq election promises little, Cambodia-Thailand truce on the rocks ›
An Indian security personnel stands guard as women voters queue to cast their ballots at a polling station during the Budgam Assembly constituency bypoll in Budgam district, Jammu and Kashmir, on November 11, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Modi tested in India elections, Iraq election promises little, Cambodia-Thailand truce on the rocks
Local election test for India’s prime minister
The state of Bihar, population 174 million, is holding local legislative elections seen as a test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party, which is currently in power there. Local parties aligned with the opposition Congress party are posing a stiff challenge in an election focused on poverty alleviation (Bihar is India’s poorest state) and competing welfare schemes for female voters, who are now an important bloc. But with Modi under broader economic pressure from US tariffs and Russian oil sanctions, a loss in Bihar would be a bad omen. Adding to his woes, authorities are still seeking those responsible for a terrorist attack that killed 13 outside the historic Red Fort in Delhi yesterday.
Iraq’s election pits Washington against Tehran
Iraqis head to the polls today to vote for the country’s 329-member parliament, largely disillusioned over what they see as an election that will just be used to figure out how to divide the Middle East country’s oil reserves. That’s not the top concern for Iraqis: endemic corruption, inadequate services, and high unemployment are also leaving voters frustrated. The next Parliament will also have to contend with a delicate foreign policy balance: they must placate dozens of armed groups that have Iranian ties, while the US pressures them to dismantle these groups. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s party is forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority.
Cambodia and Thailand suspend Trump-brokered peace deal
On Monday, Thailand suspended peace talks with Cambodia after two soldiers were killed by a landmine in disputed border territory. The two countries had been planning to start negotiations to release prisoners of war tomorrow, but that has now been called off. Cambodia denies laying new landmines – saying they are the remnants of three decades of war in the region. The two-week old Donald Trump-brokered peace agreement now hangs in the balance. The US president initiated the ceasefire by threatening to stop tariff negotiations if the conflict continued – will he intervene again to get it back on track?
US President Donald Trump welcomes Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House for bilateral discussions about trade and security on February 13, 2025.
Is a US-India détente near?
After months of tensions between the world’s richest country and the world’s most populous one, it appears that the United States and India are on the verge of making a trade deal.
“We’re going to be bringing the tariffs down,” US President Donald Trump said during a swearing-in ceremony for the newly-minted US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor, while noting that India’s purchases of Russian oil have decreased. He didn’t give a timeframe, but added that the two sides were “pretty close” to a deal.
The inevitable question will be how much Trump lowers the tariff. The US president slapped a 25% levy on India in late July, in part because of Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. When India refused to tell their companies to stop buying Russian crude, the tariff doubled to 50%.
“India’s oil purchases from Russia are on the downward trend,” Ashok Malik, partner and chair of The Asia Group’s India practice, told GZERO. “This creates a pathway for the removal of the 25% ‘oil tariff’ on India and, coinciding with Ambassador Sergio Gor’s arrival, steps towards the trade agreement.”
How did we even get here? Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were two peas in a pod during the former’s first term in office. The two leaders believed in espousing strength and in a foreign policy that prioritized bilateral relationships over multilateral agreements. They both viewed radical Islam and China with skepticism. When they held a giant rally together in Houston in 2019 – labeled, “Howdy, Modi” – the pair held hands.
“India was central in terms of our Asian strategy… It was incredibly simpatico between the two leaders,” Matthew Bartlett, who served in the US State Department during Trump’s first term, told GZERO. “Now there’s a new, rather difficult dynamic – maybe dysfunction – to it, and you would hope that we would be able to put this back on track in short time.”
When Trump returned to office earlier this year, it appeared that the two would start where they left off. Modi visited the White House in February, and the two leaders exchanged effusive messages.
But the good times didn’t last. Six months ago, when India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire following a brief flare-up in Jammu and Kashmir, Islamabad credited the Trump administration for helping to foster the peace, whereas India said the White House wasn’t involved. The issue was exacerbated when Trump told Modi over the phone that he was proud of the role he played in fostering peace – the Indian leader rejected his counterpart’s account.
Then in July, the tariff war began. Months later, even as the US has struck deals with the European Union, Japan, South Korea, and its greatest rival China, it still hadn’t reached any sort of truce with India. Washington’s 50% levy on India is now larger than the 47% effective rate on China.
“The entire dialogue between India and the US reached a boiling point where it was just very tense in terms of relations,” said Bartlett. “I think even Modi dodged Trump on his last trip.”
Further, Trump announced last week that he would exempt Hungary from Russian oil sanctions. No such luxuries were afforded to India, the second-highest purchaser of Russian oil.
The duties have taken a toll: Indian goods exports to the US, its largest foreign market, are down 40% over the last few months. Smartphones and pharmaceuticals were hit especially hard – exports of the former plunged by 58% from May to June. In September, the country’s trade deficit reached its highest level in 13 months.
Then the season changed. Tensions started to ease during the fall, as Modi and Trump shared kind words on social media following a September phone call. Then India started to comply with the new sanctions on Russian crude – they won’t even come into place until Nov. 21. A deal now appears imminent.
While conversations are moving in the right direction again, Malik says the relationship isn’t yet back to the heady days of that famous Houston rally.
“Does this resolve all problems and clean up all the bad blood from the past few months? Likely not,” said Malik. “But that’s fodder for a considered assessment on another day.”
U.S. President Donald Trump listens as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Trump changes tune again on Russia, China helps Myanmar’s junta gain ground, Brazil’s Lula announces reelection bid
Trump sanctions Russia’s biggest oil firms
Missing a date has consequences: days after canceling a second meeting this year with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, a sign of Washington’s growing frustration with the Kremlin. Europe piled on, imposing its 19th set of sanctions on Moscow. Oil prices jumped in response. In a sign that India, the second-biggest purchaser of Russian oil, could abide by these sanctions, Delhi’s top refiner is looking at halting purchases from Moscow. Further, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House has authorized Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia. Trump denied the report, but a Russian munitions factory some 1,000 miles from the Ukrainian border was hit last night, killing at least 10.
Myanmar’s junta gains ground with China’s help
Myanmar’s military junta has regained key territory in Shan State, reversing major losses from last year’s insurgent offensives in the country’s brutal four-year civil war. Since the 2021 coup that ousted the previous pro-democracy leader, ethnic armies and local militias have battled to topple military rule. The army has now retaken strategically important towns in the Shan State using new Chinese-supplied drones, airpower, and 60,000 conscripts. China’s growing support has tilted the balance decisively toward the junta, even as large parts of Myanmar remain contested and devastated by civil war.
Brazil’s president to seek a fourth term
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, announced on Thursday that he will run for reelection in 2026, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term at 79 years old. Lula’s popularity has been on the rise in reaction to Trump’s tariffs and pressure to drop the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro – who was convicted of inciting a coup. Lula is sharpening his rich-versus-poor rhetoric as he begins his campaign around the country, calling for higher taxes on the wealthy, fintechs, and gambling companies. It is unclear who will oppose him, but Bolsonaro is likely to serve as a kingmaker in choosing the next leader of his right-wing movement.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Modi to meet Xi, European bigwigs set to reimpose Iran sanctions, Egypt cracks down on influencers, & More
7: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend in Tianjin in what will be his first visit to China in seven years, a sign that tensions between the two massive countries are easing. Border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan have aggravated the relationship, but the US’s tariff policies appear to be pushing them closer.
30: The three most powerful European countries – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – have got the wheels moving on restoring sanctions on Iran that they had lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The action comes amid concerns that Tehran is expanding its nuclear arsenal again. The sanctions could retake effect within 30 days.
151: Egyptian authorities have been arresting TikTok influencers with millions of followers. One human rights organization has tracked 151 such people being charged in the past five years in connection with their TikTok videos – and the full number could be even higher. The arrests are part of a broader government effort to clamp down on speech they see as antithetical to the official definition of family values.
250: Seven US deportees arrived in Rwanda yesterday as a part of a deal the East African country has struck with the Trump administration to ultimately accept up to 250 deportees. It comes after Kigali made a similar deal with the United Kingdom in 2022.
3: Thailand’s Constitutional Court permanently removed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, dissolving her cabinet and deepening political turmoil in the country. She is the third of her family to be ousted from office, amid continued dominance by Thailand’s royalist-military establishment – despite her party taking electoral power from them in 2023.
Activists of All India National Congress burn an effigy of US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi during a protest in Kolkata, India, after the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods, on August 1, 2025.
Why is India rebuffing Trump over Russian oil?
The days of “Howdy, Modi” are over.
Six years on from a gigantic rally in Houston, Texas, where US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held hands, the two are fighting a war of words and tariffs.
The spat began last week when Trump, desperately seeking ways to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine (Putin has ignored Trump’s demands to do so for months), slapped tariffs and threatened fines on India, the second-largest purchaser of Russian crude. The idea was to force Delhi to stop buying Russian oil, starving the Kremlin of revenue for its war machine. On Wednesday, Trump upped the ante further, announcing he would double India’s tariff rate to 50% later this month.
But Modi has so far refused to back down – his Foreign Ministry reiterated on Wednesday that Trump’s proposed tariffs are “unjustified and unreasonable.” Adding fuel to the fire, the leader of the world’s largest economy and the head of the world’s most populous nation are still feuding over whether the US helped broker a ceasefire between India and Pakistan in May.
So why is Modi now clashing head on with the man he once called a “true friend”?
Firstly, there’s a monetary component.
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, India only sourced 0.2% of its oil from Russia. Now, Moscow is responsible for roughly one third of all Indian oil imports, with Delhi profiting from a discounted price that resulted from sanctions.
“Indian refineries save about $1 billion a month by buying Russian crude,” said Eurasia Group’s South Asia Practice Head Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, a lower amount than previously – the Russian oil discount has diminished in recent weeks – but still significant.
While India requires this fuel for its own energy needs, it also uses the discounted oil to generate major revenues from exporting refined petroleum products in which crude in an input, like diesel and jet fuels. In this trade, Europe is one of India’s largest markets.
“Purchasing crude oil from Russia and refining it for the market (which includes European countries) has allowed India to not only profit from the purchases but maintain its political and economic relationship with Russia,” Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told GZERO.
Secondly, India sees this as part of broader trade talks with the US.
The savings that India has made from buying Russian oil have been “useful,” per Chaudhuri, “but losing this would hardly break the bank.” More vital for India are the broader trade talks with Trump, with the next round of negotiations set for Aug. 25.
“There is a belief in New Delhi that Trump’s tariff threats are being used as leverage to extract concessions in order to secure a favourable trade deal with India, reflecting Trump’s proclivity to connect trade and non-trade issues,” said Dr. Chietigj Bajpaee, a South Asia expert at Chatham House.
The US leader has used the Russian oil purchases to justify the pressure on India, but he has another trade interest at hand: he wants Delhi to lower its notoriously high tariffs and grant the US access to its vast agricultural and dairy markets, per Chaudhuri.
Viewing Trump’s moves as a negotiating ploy, Modi sees little interest in backing down.
Thirdly, the Indian public doesn’t want to see Modi surrender to foreign pressure.
Trump’s words have piqued some in India, especially when he suggested that it had a “dead economy.”
“They’ve been seen as a little insulting, to be honest, and it has certainly worsened public opinion [toward Trump],” The Asia Group’s India Practice Chair Ashok Malik, who was a policy adviser in India’s foreign ministry, told GZERO. Modi, he added, now “has to press back.”
This isn’t so much about Trump but rather about rejecting foreign interference, according to Miller. India sees itself as fiercely independent, with a long history of “non-alignment” to any one global pole.
“For India to back down in the face of US tariff threats and essentially downgrade its relationship with Russia will also absolutely not play well among the Indian public,” said Miller. “Modi cannot be seen kowtowing to any US administration.”
Finally, India doesn’t want to lose Russia.
India values its decades-long relationship with Russia, principally because Moscow is a hedge against its chief Asian rival, China. Delhi has long had tensions with Beijing – over border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan. While relations with China have thawed a little this year – Modi is visiting China for the first time in seven years at the end of the month – India doesn’t want to anger Russia by bending the knee to Washington, as such a move would risk pushing the Kremlin even closer to Beijing.
“India has a larger interest in keeping links with Russia,” said Chaudhuri. “It believes [in] a combination of ‘respect and money’ that keeps Russia neutral when India and China clash (so far true) and provides other geopolitical benefits.”
The repudiation of US pressure, though, may still have consequences for India’s foreign policy.
“Unless Modi and Trump can reach an agreement,” says Miller “this is an incredibly destabilizing moment for the US-India relationship, and recovery will be difficult.”
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures during a joint press conference with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
What We're Watching: Modi defies Trump on Russian oil, Bolsonaro put under house arrest, Israel proposes full occupation of Gaza
India digs in heels amid Trump’s tariff threat
US President Donald Trump has doubled down on his tariff threat against India, warning he will “substantially” raise the duty on Indian imports in order to stop Delhi from buying Russian oil. India is unmoved, though, calling the threat “unjustified.” This spat might not just be about oil, though – amid ongoing trade talks, Washington is pressing India to open up its massive agricultural markets, a bitter pill for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to swallow.
Brazil’s top court puts Bolsonaro under house arrest
Brazil has placed former President Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest, after he violated the terms of a previous court order by posting on social media. The right-wing leader and Trump ally is on trial for allegedly planning a coup after his 2022 election loss. The latest move is certain to heighten US-Brazil tensions – last month Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting current leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro.
Netanyahu to propose full Gaza occupation
With Gaza ceasefire talks once again going nowhere, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will reportedly seek approval to fully occupy the strip at a Cabinet meeting Tuesday evening. Israel already controls 75% of the enclave, and the head of the Israeli military has warned that a full occupation could put soldiers and the remaining hostages, 20 of whom are still believed to be alive, at risk. Israel first took control of Gaza during the Six Day War in 1967, but formally withdrew its military and settlers in 2005 for security reasons. Netanyahu opposed that move at the time.
Graphic Truth: India dismisses Trump’s threats on Russian oil
India has said it will continue purchasing Russian oil, despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 25% tariff and threatening an “unspecified penalty” for doing so last week. New Delhi has ramped up its purchases of discounted Russian crude since US and European sanctions against Moscow took effect in 2022 over the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. But those imports are now in Washington’s crosshairs as Putin continues to ignore Donald Trump’s demands for peace talks with Kyiv. Officials in Delhi defended their position – citing the country’s energy needs – but White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller accused India of “financing” Russia’s war in Ukraine. Here’s a look at how important India’s purchases of Russian oil are for both countries.