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De-facto ruler no more — UAE’s new president is ambitious, sophisticated
One of the world’s richest men and arguably the most powerful political player in the Arab world has ascended to the presidency of the Middle East’s most dynamic Islamic state. Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, 61, was appointed on Saturday as the ruler of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates, after the death Friday of Sheikh Khalifa, his elder half brother.
Known colloquially as MBZ, Crown Prince Mohamed’s rise bolsters his family’s rule over the strategically located Gulf state, where he is expected to continue his ambitious but pragmatic economic and foreign policies for the former British protectorate.
Operationally, not much will change. MBZ has been the de-facto ruler of the UAE since Khalifa, who had taken over in 2004, suffered a stroke and retired from public life in 2014. Until then, Khalifa was overseeing the UAE’s push to diversify away from fossil fuel production and toward becoming a financial and tourism hub.
MBZ’s policies as the proxy ruler, however, have been remarkably more muscular compared to his brother: anti-Islamist, security-focused, even interventionist, but with a strong economic program, propelling the tiny UAE to punch above its weight in regional and global affairs.
“MBZ has been de-facto in charge for many years and will not feel a need to seize the moment and introduce mass change,” says Eurasia Group analyst Ayham Kamel. “He is working deliberately with a vision for the UAE. His powers will expand and he will feel more empowered but the policy direction will not change much.”
Military man. A graduate of the UK Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, MBZ’s formative years were spent in the Emirati special forces. His career in defense has shaped his politics: with him as the deputy supreme commander, the UAE’s military has transformed into one of the most potent ones in the region, is among the world’s biggest arms buyers, and has adopted an activist security doctrine.
Under MBZ’s watch, Emirati jets have conducted airstrikes in Libya to support his favored factions in the civil war, while Emirati commandos have carried out joint anti-terror missions with the Americans in Somalia, fought alongside Egypt to thwart militants in the Sinai Peninsula, and even participated in the controversial Saudi-led campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Diplomatically, MBZ has paved the way for the Arab world by normalizing ties with Israel. Indeed, former CIA officer and Brookings Institution fellow Bruce Riedel says “MBZ has been the architect of the relationship with Israel” to create a new, anti-Iran axis in the Middle East. He also pushed for a regional embargo against Qatar (now lifted), bankrolled the al-Sisi regime in Egypt, and supported the rise of his highest-profile protégé, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS.
Diplomatic heavyweight. With MBZ in charge, the UAE has become “increasingly independent of the Saudis, who formerly dominated Gulf policies,” says Riedel. Moreover, the Emiratis have also emerged as major players beyond the Gulf region by filling the vacuum left by the decline of traditional Arab powers like Egypt, Iraq, and Syria.
“Under MBZ, the UAE has really expanded its geopolitical sphere of influence,” says Kamran Bokhari, director of analytical development at the Newlines Institute. “From South Asia, where they have a say in Pakistan’s political economy; to North Africa, where they are supporting anti-Islamist factions in Libya and Tunisia; to a recently reestablished relationship with the Assad regime in Syria." They're also turning around a bad relationship with Turkey and taking the lead in the Arab world to forge ties with Israel, he adds.
“We're talking about a real strategic push by the UAE to have this kind of influence,” says Bokhari, noting how incredible that is given the size of the UAE.
True, but the UAE is also very rich — to the tune of some $420 billion in annual GDP, with a population of just under 10 million. Also, the ruling dynasty is especially well-off: by some assessments, MBZ is the richest man in the world because he controls sovereign wealth funds worth over $1.3 trillion, more than any other country, and his family rules over 6% of the world’s proven reserves of crude oil.
This leverage has allowed MBZ to take some rare liberties: Just before the 2016 US elections, he skipped an official lunch at the Obama White House to lobby then-candidate Donald Trump instead. More recently, after the Americans were slow to respond to Houthi drone attacks on the Abu Dhabi port, MBZ responded by refusing to come to the phone a few weeks later when President Joe Biden called for lower oil prices, (after that snub, he got an apology from Secretary of State Antony Blinken for America’s “late reaction”).
Even with the war in Ukraine, the UAE has not jumped on the anti-Russian bandwagon; instead, the Emiratis have abstained multiple times from voting against Russia at the UN, making their neutral position clear.
In the hierarchy of contemporary Arab politics, MBZ ranks higher than MBS. While MBS remains toxic due to his role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi as well as the bloody campaign in Yemen, his mentor MBZ has maintained a remarkably well-curated and low profile.
His capital boasts NYU and Sorbonne campuses, and even a branch of the Louvre. Emirati endowments also fund Washington’s finest think tanks. When dignitaries visit the UAE, MBZ impresses them with his accomplishments — like a third of his ministers being women, and the world’s tallest building — while ignoring controversial issues such as stifling dissent or the high-tech surveillance of his own citizens.
But MBZ is as practical as he is ambitious. Though it has shown public displeasure about the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal, the UAE has maintained a backdoor dialogue with Tehran. And when reputational and political costs get high — as they did when a UN panel flagged war crimes in Yemen — MBZ responded by drawing down from the conflict, letting the Saudis bear the brunt of the damage, showing that he’s more statesman than an ideologue.
"Recent shifts in the UAE’s foreign policy outlook are rooted in a fundamental principle: the nation’s economic interests will drive its foreign policy,” said Afshin Molavi, a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s Foreign Policy Institute. “This shift includes an attempt to normalize relations with countries often seen as adversaries, a retreat from robust regional intervention, and an emphasis on a foreign policy that serves the UAE’s economic interests above all else.”
Elon Musk, Time Person of the Year? Naftali Bennett visits UAE
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Naftali Bennett's first official visit to the UAE, China's response to recent US sanctions, and Elon Musk's chances at Time Person of the Year.
How did Naftali Bennett's first official visit to the UAE go?
Went extremely well. This was probably President Trump's largest and most unexpected foreign policy success, The Abraham Accords, which meant opening diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE, in addition to other countries in the region. Now we have the prime minister of Israel touching down on an official visit in the UAE, where he met with Mohammed bin Zayed, who is the defacto ruler of all of the Emirates, as well as a lot of other leaders. We're seeing more investment, more tourism, and we're also seeing more intelligence cooperation, especially around issues like Iran, where frankly, both the Arab governments and the Israelis have problems. Big question everyone's watching out for is when are the Saudis going to open up to Israel? The Saudis are really reluctant in part because they feel like that would seed too much ground to Iran on the Palestinian question, and also lead to much more pushback given a much more conservative Saudi population. The UAE is one of the most cosmopolitan populations out there, frankly.
How will China "strike back" responding to recent US sanctions?
Strike back is exactly what the Chinese government said they would do. This was right in advance to the United States announcing it before that Democracy Summit that they hosted, both of which were things that weren't clearly meant to make the Chinese happy. In particular, there were sanctions against SenseTime, which is this Chinese technology company that is involved a lot in data and surveillance, including helping the Chinese Government surveil the Uyghurs, systematic repression that's been going on against them. Look, I think that the Chinese Government clearly does not want to seriously unravel US/China investment and trade relations, especially given big challenges in China in managing zero COVID. They're going to have difficulties meeting reasonable growth targets this year and next year as a consequence of all of that. But they're not going to just sit and stand by idly when the Americans are putting sanctions on very important, indeed technologically strategic Chinese companies. I think they will be tit for tat, and I don't think the Americans are likely to have a second round of escalation as a consequence. Keep in mind that both countries also want to reduce inflation and are trying to see if they might reduce some of the tariffs that came under the Trump administration back and forth with President Xi. Even as the Chinese are escalating their sanctions in response to the United States, there will also be areas of collaboration.
Elon Musk, Time Person of the Year. Thoughts?
I think he's an enormously complicated character. There's some things that I frankly admire immensely about him, the way he's managed to think of entirely new ways of doing global business and make them a reality, both in terms of electric vehicles and supply chain to support that, as well as re-imagining private space and doing so much more effectively than people like Bezos or Richard Branson, who's really just doing high altitude tourism. That really matters. But I also think he's incredibly irresponsible in the way he talks to, engages in the public. He's very narrow in his expertise and interest, which is absolutely great for making hundreds of billions of dollars and horrible for opining on how a political system should run. For that, I wish he had more humility. I'd love to see people who are absolutely brilliant in their space owning that and recognizing where are the areas they're not brilliant. One of the problems that American entrepreneurs frequently have when they become super rich and super powerful is they think that all the people blowing smoke up their ass make them brilliant on absolutely everything. That's an area that I think we could see a lot more support if people like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos were willing to take a little step back and try to see themselves objectively. But I do think he really should have been Time Person of the Year in the sense that Time Person of the Year is who had the most impact globally. As one individual in the technopolar world, Elon Musk is probably number one in that regard.
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