Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
North Korea's Kim Jong Un walks away from what state media report is a "new type" of ICBM.
Will standing up to North Korea work?
North Korea has engaged in an aggressive spate of missile testing this year. In response, the US and South Korea are changing tack and pushing back against Pyongyang with a more muscular show of force. Washington and Seoul’s robust replies are designed to push Kim Jong Un back to the negotiating table, furthering their quest to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.
But it’s a risky gamble. The fresh approach could convince an isolated and broke North Korea to talk shop, or Kim could double down and conduct his first nuclear test since 2017.
The tit-for-tat ticks up. The North Koreans have been on a testing rampage. They’ve conducted 18 rounds of missile tests this year, including an intercontinental ballistic missile with the reported capacity of hitting the US mainland. So far, Pyongyang is estimated to have spent $650 million — 2% of its gross domestic product — on tests in 2022.
In the past, the US and South Korea have not responded to such provocations with reciprocal tests, says Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. Instead, they relied on other demonstrations of power, such as bomber runs, live-fire drills, and moving strategic assets to the region.
But a week ago Sunday, when Pyongyang broke its own record for the number of tests conducted in a single day with eight short-range missiles, the US and South Korea reacted with their own firepower and launched eight surface-to-surface missiles. Twenty-four hours later, as rumors of a North Korean nuclear test began to swirl, the South Korean and US air forces staged a joint patrol, with fighters flying in formation off South Korea’s coast. The exercise provided air cover for US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who was in Seoul that day and promised a “swift and forceful” response if Pyongyang tested a nuke.
A new heart in Seoul. The man behind South Korea’s new muscle flexing is President Yoon Suk-yeol. Elected last month, the conservative Yoon has been clear about wanting more joint exercises and weapons, and has even suggested that South Korea join the Quad (the security partnership between Australia, India, Japan, and the US that aims to keep China in check in the Indo-Pacific).
While Quad membership is a long shot — it would tick off Beijing too much — Yoon has hit the ground running with a more robust doctrine of dealing with North Korea.
Momentum for this approach to Kim has been building. In addition to the joint exercises, President Joe Biden promised to send strategic platforms — long-range bombers and submarines — to defend South Korea. And just as he left Seoul after his first presidential visit to Asia in May, both the US and South Korean navies held their first combined carrier-driven military drills since 2018.
Later this month, the South will deploy its largest-ever fleet force for a US-led multinational exercise in the Pacific. Pyongyang state media has responded by calling South Korea America’s “loyal dogs.”
Moon vs Yoon. The policy change between the previous administration of Moon Jae-in and Yoon is remarkable. Under Moon, military exercises were mostly shelved, Pyongyang’s moves weren’t publicly slammed as provocations, shows of force by South Korea were rare, and a careful balance was maintained with regard to the larger rivalry in the region: China vs. the US.
With the Chinese as their largest trade partners and the Americans as their only military allies, Moon towed a fine line and refrained from outwardly anti-China policies. With regard to the trilateral framework the US has long lobbied for both in Seoul and Tokyo, Moon was wary of Korea’s former colonial master and threatened to pull out of security agreements with Japan.
But under Yoon, the trilateral framework seems to be back on track. All three countries have spoken in unison against North Korea’s moves, and the Japanese are conducting their own military drills with the US.
With Yoon’s administration referring to all of North Korea’s recent tests as provocative, the gloves appear to be coming off in Seoul. On the campaign trail, Yoon made waves by suggesting the use of preemptive strikes — a “kill chain” in his words — to take out North Korean assets in what he described as “not trying to wage war, but to curb it.” The tough policy didn’t just get him votes; it also got China’s attention.
China tries to keep door open. Beijing doesn’t want Yoon to side too decisively with the US and Japan. So, despite Yoon’s tough-on-security credentials, China has been keeping the lines of communication open and stepping up its engagement with Seoul.
Chinese President Xi Jinping broke protocol and called Yoon before he took office. He also dispatched a senior ally in foreign policy kingpin Wang Qishan to attend Yoon’s inauguration, and both China’s foreign minister and defense minister held early discussions with their new counterparts in South Korea.
“The key question is how long China’s charm offensive will continue given that Yoon will put deepening security ties with the US and rapprochement with Japan at the top of his foreign policy agenda,” says Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan. While Yoon also wants to maintain steady relations with South Korea’s top trade partner, China, a continued escalation from North Korea will drive a wedge between Beijing and Seoul, he adds.
China is also working behind the scenes to rein in Pyongyang in a bid to preserve its relationship with Seoul, Chan believes. But if North Korea conducts a nuclear test or engages in another serious provocation, pushing South Korea even more firmly into America’s embrace, Beijing’s recent outreach will have been for naught.
What is North Korea thinking? While Moon was pushing for talks, Kim was gearing up for a massive WMD and testing regime, which he launched in 2021. The supreme leader still seems determined to stay on that path.
With the UN Security Council — the only multilateral body that can punish Pyongyang — preoccupied by Russia’s war in Ukraine, North Korea may take advantage and test a seventh nuclear weapon. Is an aggressive counter-response approach the best way to get Kim to back off? Or to resume talks?
“I probably wouldn’t characterize the goal of this show of force to get North Korea back to the negotiating table per se but to try to discourage further testing at this point,” says Town. And it’s failing, she adds.
The North’s WMD testing plan is proceeding and will mostly discount Washington and Seoul’s actions, Town says, noting that US and South Korean maneuvering isn’t even making the news in North Korea. The “media is barely even covering North Korea’s recent missile tests,” she adds. Instead, it is focused primarily on epidemic management in response to the recent COVID outbreak.
When it comes to Seoul and Washington’s new approach, Town questions whether it will have any effect at all. It “might make the US and South Korea feel like they’re doing something and not just letting North Korea’s tests slide,” she says. “But it’s unlikely to have much impact on whatever North Korea already has planned.”
South Korea’s presidential election slugfest
South Korean pop culture has taken the world by storm in recent years. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard of K-pop sensation BTS, the Oscar-winning film Parasite and the dystopian Netflix series Squid Game.
But the biggest show in South Korea these days is the presidential election campaign, which has featured so many gaffes, insults and scandals that it seems made for reality TV.
On Wednesday, South Koreans head to the polls, where they face a tough choice between two unpopular candidates in what’s been dubbed the “unlikeable election.” (Meanwhile, President Moon Jae-in is likely the most popular outgoing president ever — mainly for handling the pandemic well — but he’s constitutionally limited to a single term.)
Running for the center-left ruling party is Lee Jae-myung, a former provincial governor known as South Korea’s Bernie Sanders for supporting a universal basic income. Lee has come under fire during the campaign for his alleged mob ties, a prior DUI conviction, and for offering to drop his pants to prove he hadn’t had an affair with an actress.
Lee’s conservative rival is Yoon Suk-yeol, an anti-corruption crusader whose main claim to fame is helping convict former President Park Geun-hye of abuse of power in 2018. He aims to shut down the gender equality ministry and has blamed feminism for the country’s low birth rate. Yoon has been labeled the K-Trump for praising South Korea’s former military dictators, and he’s denied allegations that he’s into shamanism and anal acupuncture.
“The South Korean political landscape is deeply polarized, and this election shows that differences will be hard to overcome,” says Koo Se-woong, editor of Korea Exposé, a newsletter focused on all things Korean. “But the ugliness of the attacks on the two main candidates also reveals serious problems with the country’s political class, which suffers from entrenched corruption and moral turpitude.”
Neither Lee nor Yoon appear presidential, he adds, and “voters recognize that.”
Indeed, presidential politics have become so unhinged and detached from real issues that many young voters have checked out. So, the battle is on to woo the undecided under-40s who might go to the polls. And although Yoon is now polling slightly ahead of Lee, the outcome is more uncertain than usual precisely because the youth vote is so hard to predict.
“Younger voters helped propel Moon to power five years ago, but it’s not clear they will stick with his party,” says Jean Lee, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center. “I’ve heard a lot of frustration among young people with the current administration’s focus on engaging North Korea at a time when they feel they need their leader to focus on their needs.”
Koo points out that young South Koreans have rather practical concerns like employment or sky-high housing prices, which have doubled in Seoul since 2017. They also tend to be fiercely anti-China, pro-US, and are not worried about Kim Jong Un.
The question, says Lee, is whether young South Koreans who’ve struggled to find good jobs and affordable housing despite strong economic growth will give the ruling party another chance or express their frustration by voting for change, or by not voting at all.
Still, the outcome will have big foreign and trade policy implications. South Korea, the world's 10th-largest economy, is a manufacturing and tech powerhouse that is crucial to America’s security structure in the Asia-Pacific. It’s surrounded by a rising China, former colonial power Japan, and, of course, highly unpredictable North Korea.
If Lee wins, he favors warmer ties with Pyongyang, some daylight between South Korea and the US, and a cautious line on China. Yoon, for his part, wants to push back more against Beijing, bolster the US alliance, and ask the Americans to deploy a second THAAD anti-missile system to deter the North Koreans.
Yoon is leading in the polls, but not by much. With little distinguishing their domestic policy proposals and so much mudslinging, voters seem all but impressed.The other big elections of 2022
A few days ago we previewed five major elections to watch in 2022. Here are some others we'll be paying close attention to in the months ahead.
South Korea (March). South Korean voters will choose between two very different options to replace Moon Jae-in, the term-limited incumbent. The candidate from the ruling center-left party is Lee Jae-myung, a former civil rights lawyer and governor known as the South Korean Bernie Sanders because he backs a universal basic income. Lee’s rival and center-right hopeful is Yoon Seok-youl, a former prosecutor who helped convict former president Park Geun-hye of abuse of power in 2016.
On foreign policy, Lee wants warmer ties with China, more control over US forces in South Korea, and to play nice with North Korea. For his part, Yoon wants to push back more against China, bolster the US alliance, and deploy US tactical nukes on South Korean soil to deter Pyongyang. Yoon is ahead in the polls, yet not by much. Lee is more experienced and popular with young voters, who could decide the outcome if they turn up in high numbers.
Australia (by May 21). Australians will go to the polls before the end of May. It's a legislative election, so the party that gets a majority of seats in parliament will pick the next prime minister. The approval rating of the current PM, Scott Morrison of the right-leaning Liberal Coalition, is now at its lowest in 18 months due to frustration over one of the world's longest and strictest pandemic lockdowns, which has pummeled Aussie businesses.
Still, the Coalition remains neck-and-neck in the polls with the opposition Labor Party, struggling to capitalize on Morrison's unpopularity. The main campaign issues will likely be climate, but perhaps more COVID and the economy. On foreign policy, both parties want to maintain close ties with the US, support the AUKUS regional military alliance, and have similar views on China — although Labor doesn't want Australia to be in complete lockstep with America as it says Canberra has been under Morrison.
The Philippines (May). Philippine elections have always been deeply polarizing, and next year's will be no different. The current frontrunner in the race to succeed term-limited President Rodrigo Duterte is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator. Marcos, a staunch Duterte ally, has the president's daughter as his running mate, and right now more than half of Filipinos would vote for him.
But Marcos is reviled by other Filipinos, who remember how his strongman dad embezzled up to $10 billion in his 21 years in power (which the Marcoses deny). With boxer-turned senator Manny Pacquiao polling in the single digits, the anti-Duterte and anti-Marcos opposition has pinned all its hopes on VP Leni Robredo, who beat Marcos in the 2016 Veep contest but at the moment is a long shot.
Kenya (August). Although President Uhuru Kenyatta cannot run for a third term, he will loom large over the 2022 election. Last May, the country's top court junked Kenyatta's planned constitutional referendum in order to make Kenyan politics less tribal in exchange for more executive power. The verdict was a big win for William Ruto, Kenyatta's deputy and current presidential frontrunner.
Ruto — the first candidate not from a political family with a shot at winning the top job — is leading the polls over Raila Odinga, the scion of a prominent dynasty and Kenyatta’s former enemy turned ally. Promising to fight both wealth inequality and political dynasties, the president’s number two styles himself as a "hustler" to appeal to the three-quarters of Kenyans aged between 18 and 35. But he needs to get young people to actually show up at the ballot box, and so far the ongoing registration drive isn’t going well.
Why North Korea isn’t happy about South Korea’s pop culture soft power
South Korea is having a global pop culture moment. Right now Squid Game is top show on Netflix. Parasite was the first non-English language film to win Best Picture at the 2020 Oscars. And then there's BTS, breaking records with their songs and even making a splash at the UN, further proof of K-pop's influence beyond music along with online fans ruining a Trump rally in Oklahoma. As South Korea expands its soft power, Kim Jong Un sees it as a growing threat to his rule over North Korea, and says K-pop is a "vicious cancer."
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: The Korean Peninsula from K-Pop to Kim Jong-un
Subscribe to GZERO on YouTube to be the first to see new episodes of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: https://bit.ly/2TxCVnY
- South Korea's pop culture moment - GZERO Media ›
- What We're Watching: North Korean bluster, EU aid for Afghanistan ... ›
- Kim Jong-un will not be ignored!! | PUPPET REGIME - GZERO Media ›
- Hard Numbers: BTS make UNGA go viral, many virtual speeches ... ›
- Hard Numbers: China vs K-pop fans, French terror trial, Americans ... ›
- Russia struggles in Ukraine, Putin escalates - GZERO Media ›
Why did the 2018 summits with North Korea fail?
In 2018, Donald Trump thought he could bring peace between the Koreas, and denuclearize the North, all by himself. He failed, and now the North Koreans have more and better nukes. Veteran Korea correspondent Jean Lee is not surprised because she knew that "behind all the theater and drama of the summits," the North Koreans would not hit the pause button. What's more, she was concerned they were fooling everyone into believing we would all be safer. Watch a clip from her interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: The Korean Peninsula from K-Pop to Kim Jong-un
Subscribe to GZERO on YouTube to be the first to see new episodes of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: https://bit.ly/2TxCVnY
The Korean Peninsula from K-Pop to Kim Jong-un
On GZERO World, a tale of two very different Koreas. From K-Pop supergroup BTS to Oscar-winner Parasite to Netflix global sensation Squid Game, South Korea seems to be churning out one massive cultural hit after another. And North Korea is taking notice. As South Korea's cultural cachet continues to climb, so does Little Rocket Man's anger. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called the K-Pop invasion a "vicious cancer" and sees the South's soft power as a direct threat to his rule. Jean Lee, former AP Pyongyang bureau chief and veteran Korea correspondent, speaks with Ian Bremmer.
Subscribe to GZERO on YouTube to be the first to see new episodes of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: https://bit.ly/2TxCVnY
Moon urges more testing, tracing as new curbs imposed
South Korean President Moon Jae-in has urged the country's authorities to undertake more efforts in tracking and tracing coronavirus infections. This comes as tightened measures have failed to reduce daily infections. Yesterday, the country reported 615 new Covid-19 cases, raising the total to 38,161.
South Korea's Moon replaces ministers as sinking ratings put policy agenda at risk
SEOUL (REUTERS) - South Korean President Moon Jae-in reshuffled his cabinet on Friday (Dec 4) as his approval rating sank to a record low amid a backlash over housing policies, rising coronavirus cases and a scandal involving the justice ministry and top prosecutors.