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Moroccan fans gather on the Champs Elysees in Paris to celebrate Morocco s qualification for the semifinals of the World Cup.
What We're Watching: Morocco plays French politics, 11th-hour EU/Hungary deal, big energy milestone
Atlas Lions vs. French far-right
When reigning champion France takes on underdog Morocco in the World Cup semifinals on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron will be in the stands. And whatever happens on the pitch it’s almost certain to cause tremors for him at home. The “Rocky Balboa” success of Morocco’s “Atlas Lions” – the first Arab or African team ever to make it this far in a World Cup – has struck a chord with millions of first- and second-generation French citizens of Arab and African origin. The worry is that a small minority of those fans may riot in the streets after the match — regardless of whether Morocco wins or loses — as they did last weekend in Paris after first Morocco beat Portugal and then France defeated England in the quarterfinals. Popular far-righters like TV provocateur and former presidential frontrunner Éric Zemmour will surely seize on any unrest to advance their calls for tighter restrictions on immigration. And that will cause a problem for Macron himself, who’s under pressure from the French right to pass a new law targeting illegal immigrants.
Orbán-EU draw
Another round of confrontation between the European Union and perennial EU gadfly Viktor Orbán has concluded. Once again, the Hungarian prime minister and Europe have each made concessions. This is not a surprise. Hungary’s economy and currency are struggling, and the EU has money that Orbán’s government badly needs. But Orbán knows how to pick fights with Brussels that boost his standing at home and force the EU to compromise in order to get his support for urgent European priorities. Late Monday evening, Hungary dropped its objection to an 18 billion euro ($19.15 billion) EU aid package for Ukraine and a 15% minimum tax for big corporations. In return, Hungary will get 5.8 billion euros in badly-needed COVID recovery money, and the European Commission has agreed to unfreeze 1.2 billion euros of the 7.5 billion euros it had previously withheld over concerns about corruption and rule-of-law violations in Hungary. Both sides will claim victory, but the battle will continue: the EU is still demanding reforms in Hungary that would strengthen judicial independence and anti-graft oversight. This ain’t over.
Fusion breakthrough
Well, it lasted only a few trillionths of a second, but what a few trillionths of a second they were. In a historic breakthrough, US government scientists announced they’d successfully carried out a burst of nuclear fusion, a clean energy process that (mindbogglingly) generates more energy than it requires. The long-term implications for energy, climate, and geopolitics are huge. But first, let’s set your mind at ease — after all, “nuclear fusion” sounds scary. Fusion is different than fission. Fission is what powers today’s nuclear reactors (and atomic bombs). It works by splitting atoms in a way that releases huge amounts of energy, but also generates radioactive waste and the occasional nuclear plant meltdown. Fusion, on the other hand, is the opposite: a controlled process of mixing atoms together in to produce energy. No waste. No meltdowns. But also, for now, no guarantee it can replicated at scale outside of a lab. Still, if it could it would open the way to a world-changing source of clean and sustainable energy. China and the US are already locked in a high-stakes race to develop fusion for military and civilian purposes. That viability is decades away, but all decades start with a few trillionths of a second.Morocco line-up during the 2022 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal match against Portugal in Doha, Qatar.
What’s it worth to crush it at the World Cup?
Whether or not underdog Morocco beats France in the World Cup semifinals on Wednesday, one thing is sure: Becoming the first African or Arab nation to get this far in the biggest sporting event on the planet stands to get Morocco more than on-field glory in Qatar.
The Atlas Lions probably didn't expect to have such an amazing run, but their overperformance is no coincidence. It’s the fruit of decades of heavy investment by the kingdom in developing its players as part of Morocco’s broader sports diplomacy.
Hold up. What is sports diplomacy? It’s “when the acts of diplomacy — communication, representation, and negotiation — intersect with the sports world, whether it's in the arena or outside of it," says Lindsay Sarah Krasnoff, who knows a thing or two about sports diplomacy because she teaches it at NYU.
It can be formal, when carried out by governments or by an athlete representing a country, or informal — like the privately-run NBA’s push to make basketball a global game. But the objective is always the same: to get your country or sport noticed so you can "sell" it to the world.
Although success in sports ≠ success in politics, it does boost a national brand. A good example is Croatia, a country of less than 4 million that's only been independent for 30 years. Four years ago, it’s often said that France won the World Cup but Croatia won the hearts of fans around the world by making it all the way to the final of the tournament in Russia.
Its fairytale run put Croatia on everyone’s radar. According to one study, during the 2018 tournament visits to the tourism website soared by 250% — a big deal for a nation that makes 20% of its GDP from foreign visitors.
Symbolism matters, too. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Croatia's president at the time, went all in on showing her support for the national team in Russia. She won global praise for traveling in economy class with fans, gifting world leaders with customized jerseys, and braving a downpour to comfort the players after losing to France in Moscow. The president made her country look cool — exactly what you want to promote foreign investment and tourism.
(Unfortunately for Grabar-Kitarović, she became more famous abroad than popular with Croatian voters, narrowly losing re-election in 2020.)
Morocco is the Croatia of 2022. "It's fair to say there will be a marginal soft power benefit for Morocco. Their winning streak has generated a lot of excitement," says Eurasia Group analyst Sofia Meranto. "The Arab world and African spectators are united in backing them, and leaders across the region were quick to express their joy at the team making the semifinals. Many other fans now also see the Atlas Lions as the favored underdog."
The government is eager to cash in on the team's success to get the most bang for its sports diplomacy buck. A clear sign is the slick video from the Moroccan tourism board dominating halftime TV ads during the tournament across Europe.
This is a unique opportunity for Morocco to showcase itself to tourists. Before COVID, the country welcomed almost 20 million of them, with tourism accounting for more than 10% of GDP and 17% of the Moroccan workforce. The sector has recovered, but only at 80% of pre-pandemic levels — so Morocco would certainly appreciate a World Cup bump to get its tourism groove back ... and maybe even further develop its cash cow.
"It's great to make an imprint, but you want to do more than just enter the history books," Krasnoff explains. "You want to sustain that in order to get the maximum mileage out of your investment."
But investing in sports diplomacy can also backfire. Over a decade ago, Qatar not only spent big to secure the right to host the World Cup but also launched BeIN, a global sports channel under the Al-Jazeera network, and purchased French soccer club PSG.
Since then, the Qataris have gotten blowback over the alleged bribes involved in their bid as well as their dodgy human rights record. BeIN has lost the rights to air many top competitions, and traditional European fans have soured on PSG for being nouveau riche. Money might lure mega-stars like Leo Messi to Paris, but it won’t buy the respect of romantics who just love the Beautiful Game.
So, who'll win the sports diplomacy World Cup in 2022? The stakes are very different for the host country and Morocco.
Off the pitch, uber-rich and regional soft power heavyweight Qatar can claim credit for organizing the World Cup that featured the best-ever run for an Arab team. It’s too soon to say whether the tournament put a dent in the country’s global standing or rather delivered precisely what the Qataris hoped for: lots of attention and future partnerships.
But on the pitch, less affluent and influential Morocco has captured the imagination of Arab and non-Arab fans alike — with none of Qatar’s political baggage.
Badr Benoun celebrates after Morocco progress to the World Cup semi-finals in Qatar.
Morocco’s historic World Cup run transcends its borders
Eurasia Group's Strahinja Matejic is attending the Atlantic Dialogues conference in Marrakech, Morocco. But he decided to go a day early to join local fans who watched the Atlas Lions make World Cup history.
“Are we winning tonight?”
That was the first question a Moroccan immigration officer asked me at the Casablanca airport just hours before Morocco faced mighty Portugal in the quarter-finals of the men's soccer World Cup in Qatar.
Casablanca, the country’s bustling largest city, had ground to a halt by the time the teams were warming up. Bus drivers, roller skate hawkers in the Arab League Park, street vendors … all quickly found a chair or at least a wall to lean on. Everyone was at a watch party.
In a packed café near the King Hassan II Mosque, I gestured like a coach asking the ref for a free kick to procure a small plastic ottoman to sit on. When they realized I was a guest in Morocco — and supported their jeering of Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal’s past-his-prime GOAT — a group of students invited me to join them and promoted me to a full chair.
Leading the chants at the table is one of my new friends: Aarifa, from Sudan. She's in Morocco on an international scholarship — one of many ways the government is investing in its soft power.
That's also the primary reason I'm there, as I explained to the immigration officer after agreeing that yes, of course, Morocco will advance. I'm attending the Atlantic Dialogues conference in Marrakech, one of several policymaking events Morocco is hosting in the next few weeks for organizations like the African Union in Tangiers or the Alliance of Civilizations in Fez.
After Youssef En-Nesyri scored what would be the winning goal, I became part of the euphoric celebration. I hugged Naim, another member of the table, who took off his taqiyah (Muslim skullcap) embroidered with the Moroccan flag and put it on my head. As we awaited the final whistle in a thick cloud of cigarette smoke, the Atlas Lions supporters in Casablanca were roaring as loud as those lucky enough to be cheering inside the Al Thumama Stadium in Qatar.
When it was all over, everyone stormed the streets. Bikes, cars, even food trucks full of fans in a frenzy waved flags of Morocco, the Arab League, and Palestine to mark the first time an African and an Arab team had reached the semi-finals at the World Cup.
An elderly woman in a wheelchair “told” me the the moment felt to her like 1956, when Morocco became fully independent from France. Meanwhile, I saw two military service members celebrating on the roof of the Royal Naval School.
It’s almost an axiom that success in sports boosts national unity and pride. But in Morocco, that transcends national borders — both real and imagined.
This victory converges with the goal of the conferences in Fez, Marrakech, and Tangiers: to show that Morocco — whose national soccer jerseys don’t have stars above the association crest like Brazil’s or Spain’s — may not have won a World Cup (yet) but it plays an active role in the global map.
Indeed, Morocco’s historic run truly echoes FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s famous but insufficient attempt to push back against critics of Qatar hosting the tournament. Morocco now plays for all Africans, for all Arabs, for all Muslims, for all underdogs — and for all of us who romantically believe in the Beautiful Game and cherish the virtues of the sport.
When I woke up at dawn, the city was silent. The Atlas Lions were resting before the Wednesday game with the Gallic roosters. If you ask me then if “we” are winning tonight , I’ll reply the same — inshallah.