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A man holds a Russian flag, as Nigerians protest in the streets during anti-government demonstrations against bad governance and economic hardship, in Kaduna state, Nigeria August 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Nigeria hems in tailors over Russian flags, Thailand's Move Forward disbanded, EU-Mercosur nears trade deal, Scorched China turns off the lights, Foreigners stoke Portugal’s housing crisis
4: Measure twice, arrest once, they say. Nigeria has detained several tailors and their “sponsors” for making the Russian flags that protesters were seen waving during recent anti-government demonstrations in four northern states. Unrest surged nationwide last week in response to subsidy cuts and soaring inflation. Nigerian authorities say waiving a foreign flag during protests is a “treasonable offense,” but the move comes amid heightened concern about Russian influence in sub-Saharan Africa, where Moscow-friendly forces have recently carried out several coups.
10: A Thai court on Monday banned the anti-establishment Move Forward party’s current and former executives from politics for 10 years over its opposition to laws that protect Thailand’s royal family from criticism. The rank-and-file members will be allowed to keep their seats in parliament and are likely to form a new party, albeit without the same leadership that secured the most votes in the 2023 election.
780 million: Negotiators are in the homestretch on a free trade deal between the EU and Mercosur, a trade group comprising South American heavyweights Brazil and Argentina, along with Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia. If inked, it would create a single market of 780 million people and save EU companies more than $4 billion a year in tariffs. The talks took a hit recently when France objected on environmental grounds, but a new draft will include climate change commitments. To ratify, the EU needs only a simple majority of its 27 members.
12.5 million: The Chinese tech capital of Hangzhou has ordered its 12.5 million residents to stop using any “non-essential lighting” to relieve power grids as a record heat wave scorches large swathes of eastern and southern China. The soaring temperatures have not only tested power generation, but they’ve also raised concerns about adequate irrigation for rice farmers in the middle of the early-season harvest.
94: Rental prices in the Portuguese capital of Lisbon have soared 94% over the past decade, while home prices have risen twice as much as that. Experts blame the shortage of affordable housing on an influx of wealthy foreigners lured by tax breaks, a growing number of economic immigrants (especially from Brazil) seeking employment, and the rise of short-term rentals that cater to the country’s tourism industry.
FILE PHOTO: Thai LGBT community participates in Gay Freedom Day Parade in Bangkok, Thailand November 29, 2018.
Thailand Moves One Step Closer to Marriage Equality
Thailand’s House of Representatives approved a bill aiming to secure legal recognition of same-sex marriages, a historic first in Southeast Asia. It passed with overwhelming support: 400 votes in favor and 10 against. The bill will ensure all couples equal rights under the law in key areas like marital tax savings, property inheritance, medical rights, and child adoption.
Thailand is known for being one of the few safe havens for the LGBTQ+ community on a continent with historically restrictive laws. Thai law lagged public opinion, with polls showing as many as 96.6% of respondents supporting same-sex marriage legalization. The country is known internationally for its thriving, public social scene, as well as by many media watchers for their hugely popular queer “Boy Love (BL)” dramas and RuPaul’s Drag Race spinoff.
Thailand’s ruling Pheu Thai party capitalized on this gap between policy and public opinion. The opposition Move Forward Party – fueled by a progressive wave of young voters – campaigned on the issue during their most recent election cycle. Move Forward won the most seats in parliament but was shut out after Pheu Thai struck a deal with conservative and military-aligned parties.
Many assumed a continuation of the status quo was imminent. Voting on same-sex marriage legislation was a low-risk, high-reward move for Pheu Thai that would appease progressives angered by the sidelining of Move Forward and draw positive international attention without any pushback from their base.
The bill still requires approval from the Senate and an endorsement from the king. Thailand will then follow only Taiwan and Nepal (kind of) as countries that allow same-sex unions in Asia.Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin to Thai king: Pardon me?
Thailand’s billionaire former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has appealed to the country’s king for a pardon just days after being jailed upon his highly anticipated return to the country.
The background: In the early 2000s, Thaksin struck a populist chord to win a slew of elections, and was PM until he was ousted in a 2006 military coup that drove him into exile. Last week, he returned home for the first time since then, only to be jailed on charges of corruption and abuse of power.
The timing: It’s fishy for sure. Thaksin’s return came just as the Pheu Thai Party he founded did a once-unthinkable thing: after recent elections, the party agreed to lead a coalition that includes pro-military parties that were once Thaksin’s bitter enemies. The decision effectively shut out the progressive Move Forward Party, which actually won the elections on a groundswell of youth support.
The speculation: Did Pheu Thai do a deal with the military junta in which it buried the hatchet in exchange for Thaksin’s return and pardon? Keep a close eye on what happens in the next few days. The king has a decision to make, and millions of Move Forward supporters may yet show their anger on the streets. If he’s denied the pardon, he will need to wait two years, presumably in jail, before asking again.
Move Forward Party's leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat
Political upheaval expected after Thai PM vote
On Tuesday, Thai lawmakers are expected to hold a high-stakes parliamentary vote for a new prime minister, the outcome of which could cause prolonged political unrest if the Move Forward Party continues being sidelined from forming the next government, even though it won the election.
Some background: The vote comes after the liberal Move Forward Party surprisingly won the general election in March – thanks largely to huge support from youth and urban voters. But their candidate, Pita Limjaroenrat, was barred from assuming the premiership on the grounds that he was knowingly unfit to run because he owned shares in a media firm, which is forbidden under Thai election rules.
The technicality was seen as a way for the army-backed establishment to hold onto power, and it has deadlocked parliament for weeks.
For a candidate to become prime minister, they need the backing of half of the combined houses. Even though Move Forward has the majority of seats, getting enough votes is looking like an impossible task, especially since the runner-up party, Pheu Thai, withdrew their support for Limjaroenrat and is now backing the conservative, army-backed candidate, the real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin.
Move Forward won 113 seats in the election, so without forming a coalition with Thavisin’s Pheu Thai Party, it is far from reaching the 376 needed to win the lower house.
If Pheu Thai does prevail, there is likely to be considerable social unrest, especially by the politically active youth who fought to win Move Forward the majority.Move Forward Party leader and Thai PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat during the press conference of coalition parties in Bangkok.
Election body probes Thai PM hopeful
On Monday, Thailand's electoral commission announced it is investigating whether PM frontrunner Pita Limjaroenrat was qualified to run in last month's general election.
Huh? Shouldn't that have been settled before the vote? Not in Thailand, where the army-backed political establishment has perfected the art of gaming the system to stay in power when it loses at the ballot box.
Pita is accused of being knowingly unfit to run for MP because he owned shares in a media firm, which is verboten under Thai election rules. But the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party argues that those shares were not under his name and the media firm has been inactive since 2007.
Still, no matter how ludicrous the charge might sound, keep in mind this is Thailand, where in 2008 a prime minister was (legally) removed for ... hosting a cooking show.
If Pita gets disqualified, political turmoil is all but assured in the Land of Smiles. In early 2020, the election fraud conviction of the head of Future Forward — basically the MFP before it rebranded — triggered a youth-led protest movement that forever changed Thai politics by calling to reform the once-untouchable monarchy.A man is seen with face paint reading "cancel lèse-majesté law" during a protest in Bangkok, Thailand.
Thai opposition on 112: Political pragmatism or cop-out?
On Monday, an alliance of Thai opposition forces led by the progressive Move Forward Party signed a pact outlining their goals as a future coalition government. These include rewriting the constitution to clip the military's political power, breaking up business monopolies, and legalizing same-sex marriage.
But there was one glaring omission: reforming Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, which can put you behind bars for up to 15 years if you diss the monarchy.
Ditching its signature campaign promise is a bold move by the MFP to woo Bhumjaithai, a pro-weed, royalist party that holds the key to forming a government without army support. But it’ll also feel like a slap in the face to young voters, who overwhelmingly backed the MFP precisely because it wants to water down the royal defamation laws, known colloquially as “112.” After all, it was Gen Z protesters who in 2020-2021 took to the streets and risked their lives to get the king out of Thai politics.
Meanwhile, the generals are probably thinking: Isn't there anything we can offer the stoners to keep them on our side?Move Forward Party leader and PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat celebrate the party's election results in Bangkok, Thailand.
A guide to Thailand’s messy post-election politics
On Sunday, Thai voters shocked the ruling pro-military establishment by delivering a landslide victory for the democratic opposition. Okay, so that means the generals are out, right?
Nope.
For one thing, the men in uniform pre-rigged the election. After taking over in a 2014 coup, they rewrote the constitution to appoint the entire 250-member Senate, which picks the prime minister along with 500 MPs elected by popular vote. To form a government without the army’s consent, you need a majority of at least 376 seats, equivalent to three-quarters of the lower chamber.
Thailand’s military, with a long and rather successful history of intervening in politics, did this to ensure they would still call the shots no matter how their coalition performed at the ballot box. (Even before tweaking the charter, the country’s fragmented parliament and weak party system made it difficult for any party to win an outright majority.)
Regardless, the frontrunner for PM is 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat, a telegenic, English-speaking businessman whose progressive Move Forward Party got the most votes and seats. Against all odds, MFP bested the Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party backed by exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, whose parties had won every single Thai election since he swept to power in 2001.
MFP and Pheu Thai — now captained by Thaksin’s millennial daughter, Paetongtarn — quickly announced a six-party coalition to form a government. But together they only have 309 seats, 67 shy of the minimum threshold to override the army’s likely Senate veto.
To get that supermajority, the opposition might reach out to an unlikely kingmaker: the Bhumjaithai or “Thai Pride Party,” which came in third with 71 MPs. Bhumjaithai’s claim to fame is having led the charge for Thailand to legalize recreational cannabis, which the government actually did last year despite the country being famous for its very tough anti-drug laws.
Unfortunately, being pro-weed puts Bhumjaithai at odds with Pheu Thai, whose socially conservative rural base hates stoners and supported Thaksin’s bloody war on drugs in the early 2000s. Similarly, Bhumjaithai is also an establishment royalist party that won’t allow MFP to reform Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, popularly known as “112” for the article in the criminal code that punishes offenses to the king with up to 15 years behind bars.
What’s more, even if these three parties cut a deal, a very big if, the generals won’t leave without putting up a (political) fight.
The Thai army has ways to hold onto power despite losing big in the election. Its political allies could seek to dissolve MFP on bogus election law violation charges, as they did with its predecessor, Future Forward. (That disqualification triggered the 2020-2021 youth-led protests that rocked Thailand and turned out many first-time voters to back MFP.)
And if that doesn’t pan out, the generals might try to use the judiciary to remove the premier on even more ludicrous grounds. After all, the constitutional court once fried a sitting PM for … hosting a cooking show.
Still, if the generals pull a fast one, there could be major trouble ahead. How would you feel if you voted for change, yet got more of the same?
If anything is certain in Thai politics, it’s that violent street protests are sooner or later followed by a military coup, with the king’s blessing of course. And that’ll plunge the Land of Smiles deeper into political Groundhog Day.
Thailand votes for change
Opposition parties won Thailand's general election, according to a provisional tally released Monday. It was a particularly good day for the progressive Move Forward Party, which promised to curb the power of the army and decentralize the country’s Byzantine bureaucracy. MFP now looks set to win at least 151 seats in the 500-seat lower house.
Crucially, the party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, has vowed to reform the country’s draconian lèse-majesté law, under which criticism of the monarchy can result in a whopping 15-year prison sentence. That message resonated with millions of first-time voters following mass youth-led protests that for the first time raised the issue in 2020-2021.
For more on what’s at stake in this election and why it’s all about the Thai youth this time around, see our explainer here.
Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai party – headed by the daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, who fled Thailand in 2008, two years after being deposed in a coup – looks set to come in second. Pheu Thai and MFP have agreed to form a coalition government to, well, move forward.
Though pro-military parties got walloped in the election, they could still come out triumphant thanks in large part to a constitutional reform that allows the military, which seized power in a coup in 2014, to tap all 250 members of the Senate. (The PM is chosen by both houses of parliament and the anti-military parties fell short of the supermajority needed to override a Senate veto.)
MFP owes its success to the Gen Z voters who back its liberal agenda. Still, given the outsized power of the military in Thai politics, there will be lots of wrangling in the weeks ahead to elect a PM and form a government.