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Ten thousand protesters gather in front of Duesseldorf Central Station to march against the AfD's upcoming afternoon rally in Duesseldorf, Germany, on Feb. 15, 2025.
Viewpoint: Far right surges to prominence ahead of German elections
Amid a deep economic crisis and renewed migration concerns, the far-right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is poised to double its vote share in this weekend’s general elections. As a series of random attacks by Middle Eastern or Afghan migrants have increased the appeal of the party’s harsh anti-migration stance, its gains have caught the eye of officials in US President Donald Trump’s administration. In highly unusual interventions, presidential adviser Elon Musk has urged Germans to “move past” the guilt associated with World War II and vote for the extremist AfD, while Vice President JD Vance criticized the refusal of mainstream political leaders to work with the party.
Eurasia Group expert Jan Techau says the AfD has no path to government at present, but its increasing strength is transforming German politics. We sat down with him to learn more.
What are the main issues in these elections?
Two issues stand out. The first is the economy. With terms like “de-industrialization” being bandied around, this is no cyclical adjustment but a profound economic crisis caused by a decline in productivity, high energy prices, and high taxation. Every single party has acknowledged this, even the ones that don’t typically run on economic platforms. The second is migration, which had faded into the background a little, but has been revived in the last couple of months by a series of horrific incidents. In the last one, a rejected Afghan asylum seeker, who, for whatever reason still had a residence permit, drove a car into a crowd.
The war in Ukraine also preoccupies voters, but to a lesser extent at present. The issue is expected to gain prominence during the government formation talks after the elections, especially given US President Donald Trump’s recent outreach to Russia’s Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks.
What has been the impact of Vance’s and Musk’s interventions in favor of the AfD?
The AfD’s strong polling is mainly the result of the recent attacks that have stoked concerns over uncontrolled migration, not these interventions by external players. Still, their comments help the AfD by normalizing it and giving it more visibility and air time. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference sent a clear signal to the foreign policy establishment assembled there: The new US government seeks friendship with far-right nationalists in Europe and considers them its real allies. This has not yet translated into better polling for the AfD but has clearly strengthened its confidence.
How do you expect the AfD to perform in the elections?
The party appears on track to win 21% or 22% of the vote, doubling its share from the last elections and finishing second behind the center-right Christian Democrats, or CDU, which is polling at about 30%. The AfD won’t be able to enter government given the aversion of mainstream parties to working with it, but it will lead the opposition, allowing it to partially set the agenda from the political fringes. The AfD’s strategy will be to adopt an obstructionist stance to make the government look bad and improve the party’s position even further ahead of the 2029 elections.
The CDU recently took a risk by accepting AdF support for a proposed bill of harsh migration measures, which was rejected by parliament. Does that mean the gambit failed?
I think it's too early to make a final judgment on whether this move was strategically successful. The aim was to create more space for centrist parties to advance stricter migration policies without being accused of pandering to the far right. What we can say is that the move has not affected the CDU’s comfortable lead in the polls despite the harsh criticism received from other mainstream parties. So, we’ll see if the next government, which the CDU is expected to lead, can advance stricter migration policies. It's interesting to note that the Christian Democrats are one of the few center-right parties that remain competitive in Europe. In most other countries they have been eclipsed by formations advocating more radical policies on migration. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is trying to avoid this fate.
So, do you expect the CDU to rule in coalition with other parties, and if so, what does that mean for governance?
Yes, we expect the CDU to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and, if necessary, another party as well. Single-party majorities or minority governments are very uncommon in the German system. Of course, coalition means compromise, which could lead to an indecisive reform agenda that is not sufficient to address the issues we see at the moment. But maybe this time will be different and the mainstream parties can rise to the occasion. They know that the AfD is waiting in the wings and eager to capitalize on any governmental dysfunction in the 2029 elections.
When will we get some indication about the cohesion and strength of the next government?
The post-election coalition talks that will start shortly after the elections will give us an idea about what the next government wants to do and what – beyond the parties’ campaign rhetoric – is really possible. The war in Ukraine will also start to have an impact at this point, as the new government will have to contemplate the policy implications of Trump’s push to broker a cease-fire and get European countries to assume more responsibility for Ukraine’s security. The German mindset is very domestically focused, and the government will very likely be faced early on with requests to shoulder a massive new military exposure.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Will Trump & Musk punish Brazil over Bolsonaro indictment?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is Trump's long-term play with apparently treating Putin like a friend rather than an adversary?
His play is to end the war in Ukraine. His play is to be seen as a great deal-maker and also a return to what we call the law of the jungle, where the most powerful countries are the ones that deserve to be at the table, and if you're not at the table you're being served for dinner. That is where I think we're going. I don't think that Secretary of State Marco Rubio wanted to be there, but he's much more... He's going to be loyal, and I think the Republican senators have pushed back hard on Gaza but not so much on this. We'll see. Certainly from Riyadh, from what we've heard from Elon, what we've heard from Trump, they are working very hard to get a full reconciliation between the United States and Russia, between Trump and Putin, irrespective of what the Europeans have to say about it. And the Ukrainians are going to be pressed very, very hard to accept the deal or be left all by themselves. We'll see how the Europeans and the Ukrainians play it, but that is what they're looking at.
How likely would the release of all remaining captives, as proposed by Hamas, actually lead to a permanent truce with Israel?
Well permanent truce with Israel implies you can agree on what governance in Gaza is going to look like. The Israelis, of course, refuse to accept a state for the Palestinians. The Israelis refuse not only for Hamas to participate in any government, not surprisingly. But, of course, also the Palestinian authority participate in government. That's very different from what the Gulf states, what the Egyptians, what the Jordanians, all America's allies, are planning to propose for Gaza. I think we can get an extended ceasefire. That ceasefire might last essentially permanently, but the Israelis would still have a buffer zone, you wouldn't be heading towards statehood, and the Israelis would reserve the right to continue to engage in selected strikes if they see targets of opportunity that they consider to be militants working with for Hamas. So that's where I think we are, but very unlikely at this point that I think you'll see a restart of the war that has been lasting for well over a year at this point. I think full-blown military incursion on the ground is now on the rear-view mirror.
Does Bolsonaro's indictment for an alleged coup plot signal tough times ahead for Brazil?
I think it does. It's very likely that Bolsonaro is going to end up imprisoned. That case is going to take a while to work through the courts. Probably won't be resolved until 2026 with all the appeals that will end up happening, but he won't be able to run again. Now you can still announce you're going to run and then pull out your candidacy at the last minute like Lula did, who served time in jail himself in the past, so this isn't completely new uncharted territory for the Brazilians. But keep in mind that if Bolsonaro is refused to be allowed to run, he is completely supported by Trump. He's completely supported by Elon Musk, and that will get stronger. The Supreme Court in Brazil is politicized and is also seen by Trump and Musk as root of all evil in Brazil, so they'll be going after that. And will that be tied to tougher tariffs on Brazil? I expect it will. So, I think Brazil is going to be in a lot of trouble here, and I think that their economy is probably going to take a hit on the back of what we're going to see politically inside Brazil and the nature of the relations with the United States. Okay, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Elon Musk carries X Æ A-12 as President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 11, 2025.
Musk and Trump announce new executive order to reduce federal workforce
Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday mandating federal agencies comply with Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to slash their workforces – ordering agency heads to hire no more than one employee for every four who leave or are fired. The order does not apply to public safety, immigration, or law enforcement personnel.
The order was announced in a press conference between Trump and Musk on Tuesday night, where the world’s richest man faced questions about DOGE’s transparency and his own conflicts of interest. Musk rejected both accusations and claimed without evidence that he had uncovered billions of dollars of waste and fraud during his audit. At a minimum, eliminating 25% of federal employees would cut the federal budget by about 1%.
When it came to the judicial branch – which has stalled Trump’s “deferred resignation plan” and limited DOGE’s access to some of the government’s payment systems – Trump criticized the rulings but said that he would “always abide by the courts” though he is likely to appeal their findings up to the Supreme Court if they don’t go his way.
Elon Musk’s government takeover is powered by AI
Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, aka DOGE, has sought massive cuts to the federal workforce, in particular targeting USAID, the Department of Education, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, among other agencies.
But Musk isn’t just seizing control of the executive branch; he’s using artificial intelligence as his weapon of choice.
At the Education Department, DOGE representatives have reportedly fed sensitive data, including personally identifiable student loan information, into AI software through Microsoft’s Azure cloud service. A group of students from the University of California sued DOGE in federal court on Friday for allegedly violating federal privacy rules and exceeding their statutory authority. Additionally, congressional Democrats have demanded answers about allegations of a private server used at the Office of Personnel Management; federal workers have sued to stop this, while OPM officials deny it violates the law. And a federal judge on Saturday temporarily halted DOGE access to taxpayer information at the Treasury Department because, the judge wrote, it risks disclosure of “sensitive and confidential information and the heightened risk that the systems in question will be more vulnerable than before to hacking.”
At the General Services Administration, a former Tesla engineer is pushing an “AI-first strategy” that involves building a custom chatbot called GSAi to help draft memos faster and adopting an AI coding agent such as the popular assistant Cursor to assist with software development.
Privacy and security advocates warn that the integration of AI software into the federal government could create significant risks — especially if not done carefully. “Using AI to cut spending or reform government operations is dangerous,” said Kit Walsh, the Electronic Frontier Foundation’s AI director. “AI isn’t magic; it is generated using data collected by humans and often categorized by humans. Then it provides a way to quickly (and often sloppily) try to reproduce the patterns and categories that have been given to it.”
Calli Schroeder, senior counsel at the Electronic Privacy Information Center, said there’s also the risk that AI gobbles up sensitive data and helps train its model on it. “Many AI systems use input data to expand their training datasets in addition to using it to generate a prompt response,” she said. “This not only means security risk if the raw training data is exposed, but also puts the data at risk for further misuse.”
Schroeder noted that these revelations raised fundamental questions about government security protocols if DOGE is indeed using unsecured systems. “Any halfway responsible business or organization has many security procedures and policies about what products you can and cannot connect with company devices,” she said. “It appears that our government either does not meet this incredibly basic level of responsibility and good practice, or no one is enforcing existing policies or procedures.”
The Education Department claims that there’s nothing to worry about with regard to DOGE staff overhauling the department’s systems. “They have been sworn in, have the necessary background checks and clearances, and are focused on making the Department more cost-efficient, effective, and accountable to the taxpayers,” a spokesperson said in a statement to the press. “There is nothing inappropriate or nefarious going on.”
But a lack of transparency has pervaded the entire Musk takeover without comprehensive congressional oversight and with DOGE staffers at times refusing to even give their names while interrogating civil servants. It’s wholly unclear what’s going on mere weeks into the administration with major changes at multiple government departments and agencies — all seemingly with an element of AI. “We deserve lawful, transparent, and accountable decisions in government operations,” Walsh said. “It’s difficult to imagine that the technology at work here is fit for the purpose of making spending and personnel decisions — and Americans deserve better than to have to guess at how those decisions are being made.”Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk addresses a stadium audience in Washington, DC, on Inauguration Day.
Hard Numbers: DOGE cuts boost Palantir stocks, Shooter rampages at Swedish school, Trump makes “rare” demand of Ukraine, Rebels in DRC announce ceasefire
10: At least 10 people were believed to be dead following a shooting at an adult education center in central Sweden on Tuesday. As of this writing, police have not released information about the shooter’s identity or motive, except to say that it was a man who is believed to have acted alone.
500,000: What does Donald Trump want in exchange for continuing to support Ukraine? Something rare. The US president suggested on Monday he wanted US access to Ukraine’s rare earths and critical minerals – those used in batteries, microchips, and other advanced technologies. China currently dominates the global supply. Ukraine has at least 15,000 hectares worth of deposits already mapped out, and 500,000 tons of Lithium which could be worth tens of trillions of dollars. Kyiv said it was “ready to work with America.”
900: After more than 900 people were killed last week in the battle for Goma, a key city in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels who have wrested control of the city from the Congolese army announced a unilateral ceasefire on Tuesday. The move is meant to facilitate the arrival of humanitarian aid. DRC and Kenyan leaders are to meet next week in a fresh attempt to end the more than three-year-old conflict.A view of the USAID building in Washington, DC, on Feb. 1, 2025.
Musk says USAID is being shut down
The website for the US Agency for International Development, aka USAID, went dark without explanation Saturday following President Donald Trump’s freeze on foreign aid and a cryptic post on X by Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “Watch USAID tonight,” he wrote Friday.
Democrats have been warning that Trump was planning to dismantle USAID and fold it into the State Department — a move they say he lacks the legal authority to make. Murphy called it an attempt to “steal taxpayers’ money to enrich [Trump’s] billionaire cabal,” including Tesla CEO and presidential advisor Elon Musk, who has referred to USAID’s potential dissolution as “efficiency.”
Early Monday, Musk announced on his social media site X that he and Trump were shutting down USAID. The White House has not yet responded, and it remains unclear whether Musk or Trump have the legal authority to take such a step.
The funding freeze has halted billions in US-funded humanitarian, security, and development programs around the world. Hundreds of USAID employees and contractors have been furloughed or put on paid leave, and thousands more jobs are at risk.
DOGE data dump? On Sunday, meanwhile, it was reported that the Trump administration has given Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency access to the federal payments system, which oversees the disbursement of trillions of dollars in government funds, including social security and welfare payments. The system also contains the personal data of hundreds of millions of Americans, raising concerns about potential misuse of the data.The European Union flag is displayed on a laptop screen and Elon Musk's account on X is displayed on a phone screen.
Musk vs. Europe: How far will each go?
Musk, the richest man in the world and owner of the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, used his money and social media muscle to help Trump become president again. Now, he’s turning his mind to European politics.
Musk is reportedly “probing how he and his right-wing allies can destabilize the UK Labour government” of Keir Starmer. Musk has been repeatedly sharing attacks on Starmer, alleging that he and his government have been complicit in covering up a child sex abuse scandal, although the evidence for that is not strong.
Musk favors the traditionally marginal right-wing Reform Party, although even its leader, Nigel Farage, has distanced himself from Musk’s celebration of Tommy Robinson, a far-right rabble-rouser in prison for contempt of court.
Before he can take down Starmer, though, Musk will host a conversation with the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany.
European leaders are speaking out against Musk, and they have the power to prosecute him for election interference if they choose. But he is powerful enough and close enough to Trump to make that a forbidding prospect. Trump could punish them if they go after his friend, but not doing so could look like acquiescence to the tech titan.
They face a conundrum, and at the moment they are focused on discouraging Trump from invading Greenland.Photo illustration showing Elon Musk's post on X on a mobile phone, with a Union Jack in the background. Elon Musk has posted a stream of online attacks on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on his platform X, formerly Twitter.
European leaders call out Elon Musk
Musk has referred to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces an election next month, as a “fool” and has argued that only the nativist Alternative for Germany party can “save Germany.” He has also offered the groundless suggestion that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was “complicit” in a series of sex scandals that involved the “grooming” of young girls over many years in the UK.
In response, leaders in France, Britain, Germany, and Norway have each found their own ways of telling Musk to stay out of European politics. “Ten years ago, who would have imagined that the owner of one of the world’s largest social networks would be supporting a new international reactionary movement and intervening directly in elections, including in Germany,” asked French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.
“I find it worrying that a man with enormous access to social media and huge economic resources involves himself so directly in the internal affairs of other countries,” said Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre. “A line has been crossed,” said Britain’s Starmer. “Don’t feed the troll,” warned Scholz.
This criticism looks highly unlikely to chasten Elon Musk, and Trump isn’t going to rein him in. But by calling Musk out publicly these European leaders hope to highlight his broader political agenda for undecided voters.