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Armenia’s capital reels from the aftermath of Nagorno-Karabakh & Russia-Ukraine wars
Hundreds of thousands of people fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia’s Ukraine invasion have come to Armenia, where the future is uncertain.
In September, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive in the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region in the South Caucuses at the heart of a decades-long conflict between the two countries. Azerbaijan seized control of the territory in less than 48 hours, forcing hundreds of thousands of ethnic Karabakh Armenians to flee across the border. And they’re not the only ones. Since Russia launches its invasion of Ukraine, around a hundred thousand Russians have also fled into Armenia to escape conscription and sanctions.
But this massive influx has driven up prices and led to job scarcity in the capital, Yerevan, which makes life really difficult for the thousands of people looking to hoping to rebuild their lives there. GZERO World correspondent Fin DePencier tells the story of two people who fled to Armenia to escape war—one from Nagorno-Karabakh, the other from Moscow—to see how conflicts playing out thousands of miles away have a huge impact on the thousands of war refugees looking for a place to call home.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Overlooked stories in 2023
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Special podcast: View from "fully blockaded" Nagorno-Karabakh during Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan ›
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- Nagorno-Karabakh war flares again ›
- Armenia, Azerbaijan & the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis that needs attention ›
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Ian Explains: 2023: A good year for warmongers
2023 was a rough year for people who want peace in the world, whether it was the war in Ukraine, Gaza, or the one Americans seem to be fighting against each other.
Looking ahead to 2024, one phrase may be coming back to you: The wheels are coming off.
As Ian Bremmer explains, for years, he has been warning that our GZERO world – characterized by a lack of global leadership and the geopolitical conflict that grows as a consequence – was gathering speed. That acceleration is only increasing today while channels of international cooperation – multinational institutions, traditional alliances, and global supply chains – are losing their ability to absorb shock.
Today, when we speak of war, we've got to specify which war we're talking about. Is it the war in Ukraine that's remaking the security architecture of Europe, or is it the war in Gaza that's destabilizing the Middle East and threatening global religious conflict? Or is it the war that the Americans are fighting amongst themselves?
Look, we don’t mean to be all grinchy. There’s plenty of good news to chase the bad. US-China relations are relatively stable compared to years past. India, for all its shortcomings, is a politically stable democracy, and it’s emerging as a crucial bridge between the Global South on one side and the US, Japan, and Europe on the other. The EU is stronger than ever, and Mexico is poised to enter a year of political stability.
It’s safe to say it’ll be a tough year ahead. Stay with GZERO and Ian Bremmer; we'll keep trying to make sense of it all.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: Overlooked stories in 2023
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Overlooked stories in 2023
In 2023, a war in Ukraine got worse and new one erupted in Gaza, but there also were many other stories that didn't capture the world's attention.
2023 has been a rough one, hasn't it? From a war in Ukraine that lurched into its third year with mere kilometers of territory traded on the battlefield to a new chapter in an old conflict in Gaza with no end in sight, it's enough to make a person want to dig a bunker in the backyard. Or at least get into yoga...
In this episode, Ian Bremmer takes stock of the state of the world in 2023. Be warned: no sugar shall be coating said thoughts! Then, we'll bring you a fascinating conversation with sociologist Zeynep Tufekci about the one thing everyone is overlooking in the AI conversation. Hint: it has nothing to do with Elon Musk (thank goodness!).
And speaking of being overlooked, how much have you heard about the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the past year? Well, thousands of Armenians who fled that deadly territorial dispute are experiencing a new host of challenges in the country’s capital thanks to thousands of…you guessed it…fleeing Russians.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
AI explosion, elections, and wars: What to expect in 2024
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What are the global ramifications of Red Sea shipping disruptions?
This is a lot of ships that are carrying a lot of goods that can't go through the Red Sea because the Houthis are hitting them. And so instead they're going around the Cape of Good Hope, which is South Africa. It's a lot longer and it's more expensive. You know, it's not really an impact on the markets in the sense that the goods are still getting through. So it's not like you're not getting your oil, you're not getting your commodities. It is going to hurt the Egyptian economy significantly because they're not getting that transit and the fees. It would benefit South Africa, but their ports are a huge mess. So, I mean, funnily enough, it's probably a benefit for like Namibia and Mozambique and we'll see for how long It lasts.
Was 2023 a good year for Vladimir Putin?
On balance, I would say no. I mean, you know, he had his former chef and his confidant and his paramilitary supporter, you know, Prigozhin with the coup against him and ended up dead. So that's not great. And that was a lot of money that worked for the Kremlin. And also, he's got 11 rounds of sanctions against him and half of his sovereign assets frozen by the Americans, by the Europeans, by the entire developed world. And, of course, he also had a huge hit to his human capital with not only a whole bunch of men getting ground down in the fight, but also a lot of them leaving because they don't want to get caught up. So the last couple of months have been good in the sense that they're not losing territory that they've taken from Ukraine. And so he can spin anything as a win because he's a dictator. But things look horrible for Putin, irrespective of the nature of the fight with Russia-Ukraine.
As 2023 comes to a close, what are the biggest stories to look ahead at in 2024?
Well, I mean, of course, all these elections happening in so many parts of the world. I mean, in India, in the European Union, in the United States, in Russia, of course, which is going to be a real nail biter. Who knows what could happen there. And then you have incredible transition of explosion for artificial intelligence impacting the way all of us live. Massive upside opportunities, massive downside disruptions and governance desperately trying to catch up. Those seem to be some of the biggest things, not to mention the fact that we've got a bunch of big wars going on. And of course, the nature of the Chinese economy, a lot of stuff to focus on.
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- Podcast: Talking AI: Sociologist Zeynep Tufekci explains what's missing in the conversation - GZERO Media ›
- Israel's Lavender: What could go wrong when AI is used in military operations? - GZERO Media ›
- AI and war: Governments must widen safety dialogue to include military use - GZERO Media ›
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- AI's potential to impact election is cause for concern - EU's Eva Maydell - GZERO Media ›
What’s Nakhchivan, and could it spark yet another war in Europe?
OK, you may only recently have learned what “Nagorno-Karabakh” is (and if you didn’t, you can go here.) But when it rains it pours, especially in the Caucasus. So now it’s time to learn about a small exclave that could trigger the region’s next big conflict. Today, we are meeting “Nakhchivan.”
What’s Nakhchivan? Home to about half a million Azerbaijanis, Nakhchivan (pronounced NOCK-chee-vonn) is a part of Azerbaijan that is separated from the rest of the country by a thin sliver of Southern Armenia (see map above). Until 1991, those borders didn’t mean much, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan were glommed together as part of the larger Soviet Union.
But when the USSR collapsed and Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s, Armenia cut Azerbaijan’s overland ties to Nakhchivan. That forced Azerbaijan to create new routes through neighboring Iran, and to rely more on Turkey, which has a small border with Nakhchivan as well.
Now, Azerbaijan has Nakhchivan in its sights again, perhaps literally. The reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh means Azeri forces now control all of Azerbaijan’s territory again, right up to the Armenian border region of Syunik, which is all that separates Azerbaijan from the Nakhchivan exclave. It is a distance of barely 20 miles as the Azeri “qarğa” flies.
An emboldened Azerbaijan is now renewing longstanding calls to create an Azeri-controlled “corridor” that would slash across southern Armenia. Turkey — which has always strongly supported its ethnolinguistic cousins, the Azeris — also likes the idea. After all, linking Azerbaijan, Nakhchivan, and Turkey would create a pan-Turkic entity spanning from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. Just days after retaking Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev met his Turkish counterpart Recep Erdogan in Nakhchivan to push for a new corridor.
The Armenians, not surprisingly, don’t like this at all. But if Azerbaijan moved to create facts on the ground, would anyone come to Armenia’s defense? The outcome of the Nagorno-Karabakh war leaves little reason to think so. Azerbaijan, with Turkish help, is now in a commanding position to dictate what the map of the South Caucasus looks like.
Now that you know what Nakhchivan is … keep an ear out for more news on it in the coming weeks.Men and paramedic staff help transport a man who was injured in a blast in Mastung to a hospital in Quetta, Pakistan.
Hard Numbers: Pakistan blast, mRNA Nobel win, Kaiser Permanente strike, escaping Nagorno-Karabakh, flights to Libya, cashing in rupees
59: Fifty-nine people were killed Saturday in a bomb blast at a mosque in Mastung, Pakistan, where people were gathering to mark the birthday of the Prophet Mohammad. Pakistan’s interior ministry accused India’s intelligence service of masterminding the attack, a charge Delhi denies.
2: Two scientists, Professors Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman, won the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine on Monday for having developed the technology that led to the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. The same technology is now being tested to help fight other diseases.
75,000: In what would be the largest healthcare strike in US history, 75,000 workers at care provider Kaiser Permanente are threatening a three-day walkout as of Wednesday. While the company said hospitals and ERs would remain open, patients might see longer wait times and delays in lab work.
100,000:Over 100,000 ethnic Armenian refugees have fled to Armenia from Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijan retook control of the territory. The UN has called for international assistance, and Armenia has asked the European Union for shelter assistance and medical supplies.
10: Flights resumed from Libya to Italy after a 10-year hiatus due to a ban imposed by the European Union. Medsky Airways is now offering twice-weekly service from Tunis to Rome, though it is unclear how it is getting around the EU ban that is still in force.
96: India is extending the deadline to Oct. 7 to cash in its 2,000 rupee notes, 96% of which have been returned to the national treasury. The bills, worth an estimated $24, were introduced in 2016 during a campaign to demonetize the economy in which higher-value notes were discontinued.
Kosovo-Serbia tensions worsen, hurting EU membership hopes
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics - this week from Stockholm.
Are Serbia and Kosovo heading towards a confrontation?
It looks very bad. What happened in northern Kosovo the other day was distinctly bad. A collection of fairly well-armed and well-organized Serb thugs did an operation that was eventually beaten back by Kosovo police. It follows a cycle of escalation that was initiated on the Kosovo side, has to be said, last year, and has not been brought under control by rather intense diplomacy, both by the Europeans and by the Americans. At the moment, things look very bleak. This, of course, is damaging the EU integration prospects for both Serbia and Kosovo. Let's see what happens.
How can the EU react to what's happening in Nagorno-Karabakh?
Well, it was a very blatant military operation by the Azeris that sort of captured, de facto destroyed the autonomous functions of Nagorno-Karabakh. And it has encouraged, or forced, however you want to phrase it, practically all of the Armenians to evacuate in the direction of Armenia. It’s a huge political and humanitarian tragedy. How we can respond remains to be seen at the moment. It's very much a question of trying to alleviate the horrible humanitarian consequences.
Refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh region ride in a truck upon their arrival at the border village of Kornidzor, Armenia, September 27, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Armenians flee Nagorno-Karabakh, GOP debate falls flat, Evergrande stock drops, tragedy strikes Iraqi wedding, Commander strikes again
50,000: A torrent of at least 50,000 ethnic Armenians have fled Nagorno-Karabakh after Azerbaijani forces occupied the hotly contested enclave last week. The refugees constitute approximately one-third of the pre-war Armenian population. Among those fleeing was Russian-Armenian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan, who Azerbaijan’s border guard service said Wednesday it had arrested.
200,000: A 30-second spot at last night’s Republican debate ran advertisers around $200,000 – not cheap, but less than half the $495,000 the same time slot cost during the first debate. The network clearly expected fewer viewers to tune in for the second round, probably because polls show the lion’s share of GOP voters know they will back Donald Trump.
19: Massive Chinese property developer Evergrande saw its stock price fall 19% on reports that its chairman has been placed under police surveillance. The company has lost an astonishing 99.9% of its value since a 2017 peak and is in the midst of a government-supervised restructuring, fueling fears of liquidation.
100: Over 100 people died and scores more were injured late Tuesday when a fire swept through a wedding party in Qaraqosh, a small town in Iraq's Nineveh region. It is just the latest tragedy to strike the tight-knit community of Assyrian Christians — one of the most ancient ethnic groups in Iraq — which was forced to flee between 2014 and 2017 by the Islamic State.
11: President Joe Biden’s dog Commander has bitten yet another Secret Service agent in the 11th known incident in which the canine has harmed people at the White House. Biden’s other dog, Major, was sent to live with friends in Delaware after displaying similar aggression, but he's not the only president to have had a misbehaving pet: America’s most animal-crazy president, Teddy Roosevelt, notoriously had a badger named Josiah who bit legs constantly – “but never faces,” according to the president’s son Archie.