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FILE PHOTO: At a secret jungle camp in Myanmar's eastern Karen state, a fitness coach and other civilians are training with armed ethnic guerrillas to fight back against the country's military takeover.
Myanmar junta calls for peace talks with minority militias — not pro-democracy fighters
After a year of rebel victories that have left Myanmar’s ruling junta on the defensive, its chairman, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, invited ethnic minority armies to peace talks in a state television broadcast on Tuesday. The junta's invitation likely aims to divide these groups from pro-democracy fighters from the ethnic Burmese majority.
About half of Myanmar’s 21 armed ethnic militias signed onto a cease-fire agreement between 2015 and 2018 during a period of democratic reform, but heavy hitters like the United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Army stayed in the fight, and former signatories have since returned to combat.
Divide and conquer? Myanmar has experienced civil war since 1948, but the military has historically maintained control of the fertile and densely populated lowlands, even while minorities resisted in the hills and mountains. Only when ethnic Burmese rose up with the backing of the Buddhist clergy in 1988 and 2007 did the generals cede some political power.
But after the military toppled the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, her supporters formed the so-called National Unity Government and set up armed People’s Defense Forces. They’re believed to have up to 100,000 fighters, and the PDF has cooperated with allies from the highlands to wrest approximately 86% of Myanmar’s townships from junta control, including major border crossings.
So far, none of the major militias seem eager to take part, but we’re watching what measures of autonomy the junta might offer them to achieve a cease-fire — and to free up resources to crush the PDF.
FILE PHOTO: Rebel Bamar People's Liberation Army soldiers in full armor marching. April 15, 2023.
Myanmar’s democratic rebels set terms for talks. Will the Junta engage?
An alliance of fighters loyal to the former democratic government and ethnic minority militias has opened the door to talks with the junta in Myanmar over building a civilian-led federal government. The plan comes just ahead of the three-year anniversary of the coup against Aung San Suu Kyi and her brief democratic experiment, and follows three months of successful rebel offensives to take key border crossings to India, China, and Thailand.
What’s the plan? The so-called National Unity Government and its partners outlined six principles they hold to be nonnegotiable. In brief, the military must leave politics and subordinate itself to civilian control, a new constitution representing all stakeholders must be written, and a process of transitional justice must be set up to reconcile the grieving nation.
If the junta agrees, the NUG says it will negotiate “with the responsible leadership of the Myanmar military to terminate military rule and for peaceful transition of power.” If not, it will keep pressing the junta politically and militarily.
Will it work? The military didn’t immediately jump at the opportunity for talks, instead extending an official state of emergency by six months and delaying promised elections again. It’s not unexpected: Even if they struggle to control the border regions now, the feared Tatmadaw forces outgun and outnumber the NUG and any individual ethnic militia.
What’s more, militias from the Three Brotherhood Alliance that did the lion’s share of the fighting to seize those border regions didn’t sign on to NUG’s statement. If the best rebel fighters aren’t aligned on the peace plan, the junta may feel little compulsion to consider it seriously.
That said, officials in foreign capitals have worried that a collapse of the military regime could lead to the collapse of the state and exacerbate violence. Laying out a peace plan publicly – in English as well as Burmese – could be aimed as much at enticing political support overseas as domestically.