Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
What role does natural gas play in a clean energy transition?
Listen: How does natural gas fit into the shift toward a cleaner energy future? In this episode of Energized: The Future of Energy, host JJ Ramberg and Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel sit down with former CongressmanTim Ryan of Ohio. They discuss how energy jobs have revitalized Ohio’s economy, the role workers from the energy industry could play in the upcoming US election, and how natural gas can be combined with renewables to create a cleaner, more efficient energy transition.
Listen on Apple, Spotify, Goodpods, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- From AI to food recycling: Innovations transforming the energy sector ›
- Can we keep energy affordable, safe, and secure? ›
- Pulitzer Prize-winning author Daniel Yergin on energy security in a changing world ›
- Introducing “Energized: The Future of Energy”, a new podcast series ›
- Partnering for the future: Indigenous communities and energy transition - GZERO Media ›
"The next 50 years belong to Alaska" — An interview with Gov. Mike Dunleavy
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to explore the state’s pivotal role in America’s energy, technology, and national security. Alaska sits at the heart of some of America's thorniest geopolitical challenges. Its renewable resources, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and freshwater make it a critical part of the country's energy and technology futures, while its strategic location near Russia and China underscores its geopolitical importance. No one understands better than Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy, who drills into Alaska's energy and economic potential and discusses US national security concerns within a melting Arctic on the GZERO World Podcast.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.A woman and her sons stand on the edge of Maracaibo lake in front of oil rigs in Maracaibo February 15, 2008.
Oil, gas, gold for (pseudo-) democracy?
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions against Venezuela’s oil, natural gas, and gold sectors after Venezuela’s strongman President Nicolás Maduro agreed to a deal with the US-backed opposition on scheduling elections with international observers and allowing opposition candidates to run.
This gives the South American country a lucrative opportunity to export oil to US markets, which will put coveted US dollars directly into Caracas’ coffers. Boosting the Venezuelan economy can’t hurt Maduro, fair elections or not, and could lead to lower US gas prices, which would save Biden some political pain ahead of his reelection bid.
The six-month scheme is a major reversal for Washington, which applied “maximum pressure” against the Venezuelan regime during the Donald Trump years. That approach seems to have largely failed: Sanctions have crippled Venezuela’s economy but failed to oust Maduro, and after an initial flurry of fanfare, the US-backed, self-declared interim leader Juan Guaidó’s movement is all but dead.
The White House says it will slam the hammer back down if Caracas doesn’t follow through with its promises. But Washington also wants to see political prisoners released, and Caracas seemed to nod at that expectation by releasing five detainees after the sanctions paused.
But this is far from Maduro’s swansong. There’s no set timeline to arrange for official candidate lists and hold votes, no agreed-upon rules for how the election and campaign will be conducted, and most importantly, no real incentive for Maduro to allow a truly fair contest. He’s made it this far under sanctions, after all, so why should he dread their re-imposition?
And if he can make some money while dragging the process out, pues que chevere (well, that’s great!).
The Graphic Truth: EU natural gas prices plunge
For months, Europe has been bracing for an energy crisis as it weans itself off Russian oil and natural gas amid the ongoing onslaught in Ukraine. But mother nature has given European countries a helping hand in recent weeks by keeping temperatures mild across much of the Northern Hemisphere – and reducing demand for gas needed to heat homes. As a result, the Dutch gas trading exchange – a benchmark for measuring natural gas prices – has plummeted by 80% from an August high and is now below pre-war levels. This is a welcome development for European governments that have already taken measures to curb consumption and shield consumers from high prices. We take a look at European natural gas prices since Jan. 2022.
Frenemy face-off at the World Cup: Morocco vs. Spain
It's just a soccer game. Or maybe there’s more to it.
On Tuesday, underdog Morocco takes on 2010 champion Spain at the Qatar World Cup in what one might frame as a battle between “neighbors” in Africa and Europe, separated by barely 9 miles of the Mediterranean Sea and with a long-fraught political relationship that’s seen some recent twists and turns.
And there’s a bigger geopolitical story that goes beyond the two kingdoms.
Territorial disputes have always made Morocco-Spain ties, to put it mildly, complicated. Morocco resents Spain for not handing over the former Spanish colony of Western Sahara, which Rabat claims as part of its territory and is rich in fish and minerals.
Morocco also has a beef with Spain over Ceuta and Melilla, two centuries-old Spanish enclaves inside Morocco and the last vestiges of European sovereignty in mainland Africa. (Fun fact: 20 years ago, the two sides almost went to war over a rock in the Strait of Gibraltar inhabited by … goats.)
The bilateral tensions have two major spillover effects with EU-wide implications.
First, Morocco has been accused of weaponizing sub-Saharan African migrants when it tells its border guards to stand by and "let" asylum-seekers try to scale the border fences of Ceuta and Melilla, which is EU sovereign territory. Rabat does this whenever Spain triggers it over Western Sahara: In May 2021, Madrid had to deploy the army to help defend the border from an influx of thousands of migrants after the Spanish government allowed a leader of the Polisario Front — a militant group that seeks independence for Western Sahara — to get medical treatment in Spain.
This is not just a Morocco-Spain problem. Once the asylum-seekers are on EU soil, they are free to travel to other EU countries — potentially unleashing a migration crisis across the entire bloc.
Second, whatever happens between Morocco and Spain is closely watched next door in natural-gas rich Algeria, which backs the Polisario Front and has kept the border with its western neighbor closed since 1994 to protest Morocco’s partial “occupation” of Western Sahara.
In late April, the Algerians first threatened to cut off gas supplies to the Spanish after Madrid announced it would resell some of that gas to Morocco. And when PM Pedro Sánchez went a step further by ending Spain's long-held neutrality on Western Sahara to ward off another migrant crisis, Algeria responded by selling more gas to Italy. Algerian gas deliveries to Spain are now down by half from a year ago and the US has become Madrid’s top seller.
Algeria's strong pushback to Spain's pro-Rabat gestures is a heads-up to the EU: Kicking the Russian gas habit is not risk-free. The more leverage an alternative supplier gets, the more inclined it'll be to turn on a dime and move to kill a contract if political feathers get ruffled.
So, what’s the current state of bilateral ties and what does the future hold? “Spain and Morocco are now on a honeymoon, but this is only a parenthesis before the next crisis, which Morocco will decide when to launch,” says Ignacio Cembrero, a veteran Spanish journalist and expert on Morocco-Spain relations.
The next big development will come, he adds, when the Spanish government follows the US in recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, as the Trump administration did in December 2020 in exchange for Rabat joining the US-brokered Abraham Accords. “That’s what Morocco wants.”
Back to the soccer ... on the pitch, Spain is the favorite.La Roja has a young squad led by FC Barcelona playmaker Pedri that excels at its signature tiki-taka passing game. Still, the Atlas Lions have plenty of talent too and will surely give their northern neighbors a run for their money.
Yet off the field, the stakes are higher for Morocco. If it wins and becomes the first Arab country to reach the World Cup quarter-finals, Moroccans will go crazy at home — and in Spain, where some 800,000 of them live.
Let’s just hope the celebrations don’t turn into the violent riots that erupted across Belgian and Dutch cities when Morroco upset Belgium in the first round.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
The logo of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project is seen at a rolling plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia.
What We're Watching: Russian gas pipeline problems, China's economic slump, the other mobilization
Did someone blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
The operator of the two Nord Stream gas pipelines, which run from Russia to Western Europe under the Baltic Sea, reported “unprecedented” leaks and massive pressure drops on Tuesday, stoking fears of foul play. Nord Stream was not actually carrying gas to Europe at the time — the EU froze approvals for the new Nord Stream 2 line after Russia invaded Ukraine, and Russia halted existing flows through Nord Stream 1 in August, blaming Western sanctions. But the incident comes as Europe bundles up for winter with substantially reduced shipments of Russian gas. Seismologists recorded explosions in the area on Monday, and European officials have suggested sabotage, but so far there is no hard evidence. Russian officials, for their part, lamented the incident’s impact on “energy security,” while some pro-government outlets have suggestedAmerican sabotage. If it were deliberate, who’d benefit most from blowing up a non-operational pipeline? Apart from the geopolitical intrigue, there are environmental concerns too — the line is now leaking gargantuan amounts of methane, churning up the sea off the Danish island of Bornholm.
China turns from Asia’s economic leader to laggard
The bad news just keeps coming in what has been the worst year for China's economy since Xi Jinping took over in 2012. The World Bank predicts that China's GDP will expand this year by just 2.8% — half the government's modest target of 5.5% and less than the average for the rest of Asia for the first time since 1990. What a turnaround for “the world’s factory,” which for decades led the region with double-digit annual GDP growth. How did we get here? Well, Xi's stubborn refusal to relax the zero-COVID policy has certainly done a number on the economy and global supply chains. A real estate sector crisis, piling debt, and an ongoing energy crunch have only made things worse. What can Xi do? Implement broad structural reforms that could upend the Chinese economic model. But don’t expect that anytime soon. Right now, Xi is only thinking about next month's 20th Congress of the ruling Communist Party, where he'll get a third five-year term as CCP boss. Watch to see whether Xi appoints more economists and technocrats over loyalists to senior party posts, which might indicate that fixing the economy takes priority over ensuring loyalty to him at all costs.
What We're Drafting: Security guards for the World Cup
Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilization of reservists to fight in Ukraine has grabbed global headlines, but there’s another draft in the works for a less nefarious purpose. Two months out from the men’s soccer World Cup in Qatar, Doha is calling up hundreds of civilians for mandatory military duty as ... security guards. The drastic recruitment drive reflects the scale of effort needed as the Gulf nation of 2.8 million — only 380,000 of whom are citizens — prepares for an influx of 1.2 million people for (arguably) the world's biggest sporting event. The conscripts, including diplomats recalled from overseas, will do their “patriotic duty” by frisking fans for weapons, drugs, and (gasp!) booze — a big no-no in a Muslim country. (But Qatar will allow ticketed fans to drink Budweiser, an official sponsor, outside of stadiums before and after matches.) The security guards are being trained with hour-long marches to keep fit and have been told to treat all fans equally, based on the UN Declaration of Human Rights, which clearly did not apply to the thousands of migrant workers who died while building the World Cup stadiums.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
The Graphic Truth: Natural gas prices make EU power costs soar
EU natural gas prices have gone through the roof since Russia invaded Ukraine and cut off gas flows. This has sent European electric bills soaring — to the point that Brussels is ready to intervene in energy markets to protect consumers.
Some of the ideas being thrown around are a cap on the price of Russian gas to deter President Vladimir Putin from messing with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline as pushback for sanctions; a ceiling on the price of all gas used to produce electricity; a windfall tax on all energy firms to pay for consumer subsidies; and a limit on what non-gas producers can earn beyond a market price of 200 euros per MWh.
These measures aim to curb power prices and boost gas supplies before the winter, when Europeans will need more power to heat their homes. But will they be enough to fix the bloc's energy crunch before angry, cold EU residents start blaming their governments?
We compare two benchmarks for the bloc — German spot electricity prices and Dutch gas futures — over the past year.
With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices?
Energy prices in the EU have skyrocketed since Russia invaded Ukraine. This week, the cost of electricity across the bloc reached 10 times the decade-long average — mainly due to surging gas prices as a result of Moscow cutting natural gas supplies as payback for sanctions.
As consumers feel the pinch, EU leaders are now under intense pressure to do something to tame runaway energy costs. One way is putting a cap on gas prices for electricity.
How would that work? One proposal, floated by Italian PM Mario Draghi, is a bloc-wide ceiling on the price of Russian gas bought by EU energy companies.
That would wipe out Vladimir Putin's main leverage over Europe in one fell swoop, but also risks the Kremlin turning off the tap completely. (Russian energy giant Gazprom shut down Wednesday the Nord Stream 1 pipeline serving Germany for three days, citing highly suspicious maintenance work.)
The more popular — and populist — option is capping the price of gas from any country used to generate electricity, which is getting a lot of buzz in Brussels these days. EU governments would pay energy firms the difference between that cieling and the higher market price of gas, so companies don't have to pass on the cost to consumers.
Whatever Putin does, price-capping fans argue, come winter ordinary Europeans would be able to keep the lights on and their homes warm.
The price cap is a short-term political gambit that gives EU leaders some breathing room to diversify away from Russian gas without the political backlash from Europeans struggling to pay their electric bills, says Raad Alkadiri, managing director for energy at Eurasia Group.
Brussels, he adds, is desperate to kick its Russian gas habit, but EU member states need more time to import and store enough LNG from alternative sources like Algeria or Qatar. And in the future, the bloc hopes that more renewables in the energy mix should reduce the EU's overall reliance on gas for electricity.
A gas price cap targeting consumers is already in place since June in Spain and Portugal, which got the green light from Brussels to pilot the system. So far so good, but the Iberian Peninsula doesn't buy much Russian gas and is somewhat disconnected from the broader EU wholesale market (although this would change if France agrees to build a pipeline to Germany under the Pyrenees).
Still, it's unclear if an EU-wide cap would need sign-off from all member states, and in any case, extending the Iberian scheme to the entire bloc might have some unintended consequences.
For one thing, artificially “cheap” gas could actually encourage Europeans to consume more gas barely a month after EU member states painstakingly agreed to “voluntarily” cut gas consumption by 15% until April 2023 to avoid winter rationing. More demand will push prices up, and over time make the subsidy unsustainable for cash-strapped governments.
What's more, two of the governments pushing the hardest for an EU-wide cap — Italy and Spain — are already highly indebted, and would get even deeper into the red if they borrow more money to shield their citizens from sky-high electric bills if the war drags on.
For another, this could all throw a wrench into EU plans to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. For those against the price cap, it’s as much a subsidy for consumers as it is for fossil fuels, and public funds would be better spent on accelerating the renewables transition.
"The cost of diversifying away from Russian gas is really expensive," Alkadiri says. But if you're an EU government, he adds, you must choose between making consumers pay or picking up the tab yourself. And while you might style yourself as fiscally responsible, the last thing you want is to face angry voters who feel they’ve become poorer — and might force you to let Putin get away with murder in Ukraine.
"Russia is sitting there, saying: you want cheap gas? We have it in droves. And you have all the infrastructure you need to get it. Europe is saying: yes, but that gives you political power over us. So we don't want your gas. We don't want to be dependent on you.”
- How new UK PM Liz Truss will impact UK/EU relations - GZERO Media ›
- Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's energy future: Perspective from Norway's PM Jonas Støre - GZERO Media ›
- Who blew up the Nord Stream pipelines? - GZERO Media ›
- World Bank announces plan to bring power to 300 million in Africa - GZERO Media ›
- How to tackle global challenges: The IMF & World Bank blueprint - GZERO Media ›