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Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.
El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele speaks during the inauguration
El Salvador’s millennial strongman on track to be reelected
The decision, announced Friday, came roughly two years after a ruling from El Salvador’s highest court that paved the way for Bukele to run again. The 2021 ruling, condemned by the United States as anti-democratic, came from justices who were appointed by lawmakers from Bukele’s ruling party.
Authoritarian tendencies: Bukele has taken a bombastic, controversial approach to leadership — sending armed men into Parliament to intimidate lawmakers, for example.
But Bukele is wildly popular in El Salvador for overseeing a brutal crackdown on gang violence, which has cleaned up the country’s streets while raising myriad allegations of human rights violations. He’s likely to lean heavily on this effort as he vies for another term.
Though history shows strongman behavior can often inspire the masses to revolt against leaders, so far the opposite has been true for Bukele. As democratic institutions continue to erode under his watch, Bukele continues to gain more fans on the far right in the US.El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele registers his candidacy to seek reelection in 2024.
El Salvador's Bukele benefits from bond boom
Nayib Bukele, the strongman president of El Salvador, certainly has his critics. He’s angered human rights activists with his sledgehammer crackdown on gang violence. He has antagonized the opposition by using the military to intimidate Congress and appointing judges who helped him wriggle out of term limits. Even the US has warned the youthful and irreverent Bukele about undermining his country’s fragile democracy.
And yet … Bukele enjoys a staggering 91% approval rating among ordinary Salvadorans, who see his strongman tactics as the price to pay for safer streets in one of the world’s most violent countries. The official homicide rate has fallen by half over the past year.
Now add one more group to the Bukele fan club: bond investors. The country’s sovereign debt is delivering 60% returns in 2023, the best performer in the world.
A year ago, by contrast, Salvadoran bonds were worth barely a quarter of their face value, as Bukele’s bet on bitcoin went up in smoke, he was unable to agree to terms for a badly needed IMF bailout, and markets worried about default. Since then, Bukele has calmed Wall Street by twice buying back huge tranches of El Salvador’s outstanding debt, and by appointing an ex-IMF official as one of his top advisers.
Whether his authoritarian streak will have longer-term negative consequences for El Salvador’s politics and civil society remains to be seen – but for now, Wall Street is betting big on Bukele.
Honduran military police guard gang members after taking over control of prisons.
Honduras goes full Bukele on gangs
On Monday, authorities in Honduras responded to a gang-related fire that killed 46 inmates at a women's prison by putting the military police in charge of all jails, emptying cell blocks, and forcing cons to sit in rows nestled against each other, with their hands tied, heads bowed, and male inmates shirtless. Sound familiar?
Yep, that's exactly how the prison system is run in neighboring El Salvador since strongman President Nayib Bukele imposed a draconian state of emergency to fight gangs. And his people love him for it.
Bukele is the world's most popular democratically elected leader, with an approval rating consistently hovering around 90%. Perhaps the main reason is his mano dura or "tough hand" approach toward gang violence, which has made crime rates nosedive at the expense of the rule of law and human rights.
Understandably, Bukele's sky-high popularity makes it tempting for leaders of other Central and South American nations — many of which face the same problem with gangs — to follow his lead. But it's no magic solution: In Ecuador, outgoing President Guillermo Lasso is losing his war on gangs despite imposing an emergency rule similar to El Salvador’s under Bukele.
What's more, such authoritarian vibes seem off-brand for Honduran President Xiomara Castro, an unabashed left-winger who won the top job in 2021 on a promise of restoring faith in democracy. Desperate times …
Gang members wait to be taken to their cell after 2000 gang members were transferred to the Terrorism Confinement Center, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. Handout distributed March 15, 2023.
What We’re Watching: El Salvador’s lingering state of emergency, Northern Ireland on alert, Alibaba’s breakup, Greek election matters
El Salvador’s state of emergency one year later
This week marks one year since El Salvador’s bullish millennial president, Nayib Bukele, introduced a state of emergency, enabling his government to deal with the scourge of gang violence that has long made his country one of the world’s most dangerous.
Quick recap: To crack down on the country’s 70,000 gang members, Bukele’s government denied alleged criminals the right to know why they were detained and access to legal counsel. The arrest blitz has seen nearly 2% of the adult population locked up.
Despite these draconian measures and Bukele’s efforts to circumvent a one-term limit, he enjoys a staggering 91% approval rating.
Bukele has also sought to distinguish himself as an anti-corruption warrior, which resonates with an electorate disillusioned by years of corrupt politicians (Bukele’s three predecessors have all been charged with corruption. One is in prison; two are on the run.)
Externally, relations with the Biden administration have been icy under Bukele, with San Salvador refusing to back a US-sponsored UN resolution condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine.
What matters most to Salvadorans is the dropping crime rate, which is why Bukele will likely cruise to reelection next year.
Fears of domestic terror attack in Northern Ireland
Britain's MI5 intelligence agency has raised the domestic terror threat in Northern Ireland from “substantial” to “severe” amid fears of an imminent attack in the British-run region. This follows a series of attacks by Irish nationalist groups, mainly against police, in Northern Ireland in recent months.
The New Irish Republican Army, a paramilitary group with roots in the original militant group of the same name, has taken responsibility for a series of crimes against law enforcement and journalists.
For context, the IRA dominant in the 20th century disbanded with the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 that put an end to decades of violence between pro-British unionists wanting to stay part of the UK, and Irish nationalists calling for the unification of Northern Ireland with Ireland.
This warning comes as US President Joe Biden is preparing to travel to Belfast next month to mark the 25th anniversary of the peace deal, which put an end to the conflict, known as the Troubles.
Indeed, tensions have risen since Brexit, which revived age-old questions about the status of Northern Ireland’s borders. The threat level in Britain, meanwhile, remains “substantial,” meaning that an attack is still a strong possibility, according to authorities.
Alibaba breaks up … itself
Now we know the real reason Alibaba founder Jack Ma resurfaced in China this week. On Tuesday, the Chinese e-commerce giant announced it would spin off its different businesses into six units with separate CEOs under a single holding company. Each unit will be allowed to seek outside capital or go public independently.
Alibaba claims that the Chinese government did not order the restructuring, but it's an open secret that Xi Jinping thought the company had become too rich and powerful. The restructuring plan was unveiled the day after Ma made his first public appearance in the country since late 2020 to boost confidence in the tech company and within the broader sector. (His public criticism of regulators set off a broader crackdown against China's tech sector that hit Alibaba hard.)
Politics aside, Alibaba is just following in the footsteps of its main rivals, Tencent and JD.com, which showed earlier they got the memo from Xi: Break yourself up before you become too big to fail, or it'll be worse if we have to do it for you. The question is, would this ever happen in the US to curb the power of Big Tech?
Greek PM calls spring election
PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, whose popularity has dipped in the wake of a train disaster last month that killed 57, has called for a general election on May 21. The train crash sparked national protests and strikes as angry Greeks pointed blame at the government for poor transport-sector investment and regulation.
In this election, Greece is transitioning to a proportional representation system, making it harder for any party to enjoy an outright win.
Mitsotakis, whose term was set to end in July, has been dogged by protests and allegations of wiretapping of political opponents by security forces. His reputational dent mixed with his New Democracy Party’s declining numbers – though they remain slightly ahead of the opposition Syriza Party – raise the likelihood of Greece soon being ruled by a coalition.
Syriza, meanwhile, says that even if it wins an outright majority, it will form a "government of cooperation." But the left-wingers have ruled out the possibility of working in a coalition with Mitsotakis’s conservatives.
And the (geopolitical) Oscar goes to …
It's the 95th Academy Awards on Sunday, and we all know that the Oscars often get political. You can expect speeches to reference Russia's war in Ukraine and, of course, US culture-war issues like identity politics. But in this era of political hyper-polarization in America and beyond, we’ve got our own awards to give out.
Here are our picks for a few of the best performances of the past 12 months.
Best Documentary Feature: "The Little Short," by El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, based on his get-rich-quick bestseller "Bukele's Guide to Wealth and Fame in Crypto Markets."
Best Cameo/Actress in a Limited TV Miniseries:Liz Truss as British PM.
Lifetime Achievement: Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for "My Trip to Taipei," a tour de force in DNGAF about the geopolitical consequences of my actions.
Best Costume Design: US Rep. (and alleged serial liar) George Santos (R-NY) as a drag queen in Brazil.
Best Editing: Xi Jinping for ending zero-COVID in China — and all references to it too.
Best Special Effects: The US/Russia/pro-Ukrainian group/we'll-never-know-who for the Nord Stream pipeline explosion.
Best Sound Editing in Parliament/Exit From the Party: Former New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern.
Best Screenplay/Cinematography: C-SPAN for "The House Speaker Fight," an unexpectedly riveting story of failed votes, failed fistfights, and failed leadership in the US Congress.
Best Remake: Jair Bolsonaro, director of the 8 de Janeiro reboot of January 6.
Best Picture: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Balloon," a Kubrick-esque Cold War 2.0 satire featuring Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, and a floating weapon of mass puns.
The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up?
El Salvador made headlines in recent days after President Nayib Bukele released photos of gang members being corralled into the country’s new mega-prison – a sprawling complex that will eventually hold 40,000 inmates. It’s the latest development in Bukele’s massive – and very popular – crackdown on gangs, in which Salvadoran authorities have locked up almost 2% of the adult population. (Never mind that US officials have recently accused Bukele of colluding with the very gangs he says he’s trying to stamp out!) El Salvador now has the highest prison rate per 100,000 people in the world – but how does that compare globally? Here we take a look at the countries with the highest official prison rates.
Then and Now: Iran’s public trials, Somalia’s new cabinet, El Salvador’s state of emergency
Three Months ago: Islamic Republic announces (sham) public trials
Media attention may have subsided, but protesters in Iran remain unbowed four months after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini – she was arrested by the Islamic Republic’s “morality police” three days before her death – set off something resembling a revolution. Three months ago, we wrote that the mullahs who rule the country with an iron fist had announced the public trial of around 1,000 Iranians for participating in anti-regime demonstrations. Since then, at least four men have been publicly hanged: Sayed Mohammad Hosseini, 39, Mohammad Mehdi Karami, 22, a karate champ, Majid Reza Rahnavard, 23, a store worker, and Mohsen Shekari, 23, a barista. They were each accused of killing a member of the Basij paramilitary, a ruthless volunteer force that operates under the draconian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp – though rights groups say their confessions were coerced under torture.
What’s more, these death sentences were doled out by a small group of radical judges in “sham trials.” At least 17 others have been handed down death sentences, but several have been stalled due to appeals. (This is likely a gross undercount as the Islamic Republic isn’t known for transparency.) A whopping 19,500 people have been arrested since September for taking part in demonstrations, which are still ongoing but smaller. The Islamic Republic was hoping that images of hanged men dangling from cranes would scare protesters into submission, but as one protester told The Guardian, they’ve simply made people more furious, noting that “they’ve created this fire under the ashes.”
Six months ago: Somalia’s government recruits former al-Shabab chief to fight … al-Shabab
When appointing a new cabinet last summer, Somalia’s PM did something unheard of: He tapped Mukhtar Robow, a former al-Shabab spokesperson who trained with al-Qaida in Afghanistan and once had a $5 million bounty on his head – as the new religious affairs minister. The aim was for Robow, who broke ranks with the radical Sunni group in 2017, to help the government encourage additional al-Shabab defectors as part of its bid to wage “total war” against the militant group. So, how’s that plan going? Al-Shabab has continued to wreak havoc on the country, including a recent attack on a Somali military base that killed 11 soldiers as well as a deadly attack on a Mogadishu hotel frequented by lawmakers in Nov. 2022. Crucially, the US-backed government has also made some gains in pushing the group out of urban areas in central Somalia. And in recent days, US ground troops killed Bilal al-Sudani, the Islamic State’s point person in Somalia. While ISIS is less potent in Somalia than the al-Qaida-aligned al-Shabab, the fact that President Joe Biden greenlit this ground operation reinforces that Washington is deeply concerned about Somalia exporting terrorism throughout the region. Meanwhile, Somali troops recently captured Harardhere, a port town and major supply route for the terror organization, as well as the nearby town of Galcad. In recent days the US carried out airstrikes northeast of Mogadishu that killed 30 combatants. Indeed, these are significant gains, but much of the campaign’s future successes will be contingent upon the government’s ability to cooperate with clan militias around the country.
Nine months ago: Will El Salvador’s strongman remain popular?
Last April, we wrote about El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s bid to address the gang-ridden country’s out-of-control crime rate. It’s been nine months since Bukele, a millennial and former political outsider, enforced a state of emergency that gave him extraordinary powers to crack down on the country’s roughly 70,000 gang members. At the time, Bukele’s approval rating was sky-high, but citizens accustomed to democratic proceedings don’t typically take well to curbs on their rights. Nine months later, Bukele’s approval rating hovers around … 83%. Despite the fact that he’s rounded up and jailed nearly 2% of the entire adult population, resulting in at least 90 in-custody deaths, support for his state of emergency remains widespread. What’s more, a new Human Rights Watch report, based on a leaked government database, suggests that children have also been rounded up as part of this tough-on-crime spree, while prisons remain dangerously overcrowded. Some 100,000 have been arrested as part of his campaign, which includes suspending the right to be informed why they were detained and the right to legal counsel, and Salvadorans still want more Bukele! That’s in large part because his plan is working: According to government data, El Salvador’s homicide rate reportedly declined by a staggering 56.8% in 2022. Human rights groups have criticized Bukele’s government, but Salvadorans say they care more about security. This bodes well for Bukele, who should cruise to reelection in 2024.