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Global leaders scramble to align with Trump
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. A lot more information about where the Trump administration is going in terms of the appointees that they're making and also, the responses that we see from leaders around the world. Maybe focus a little on the global, because if you think that Republicans who privately don't really like Trump are publicly all lining up and saying, "This is God's gift," you've seen nothing compared to what you're going to see from allies of the United States all over the world who know that they get crosswise with the president-elect at their own peril. He is a lot more powerful, and his country is a lot more powerful than their own. We've already seen that with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel saying that an upcoming Lebanon ceasefire would be a gift to the president-elect. We've seen Zelenskyy in Ukraine saying, "Great meetings, great phone calls."
Of course, the war is going to be over faster with the policies of the incoming president-elect. We're seeing all sorts of outreach from individual European leaders, Asian leaders saying, "We can't wait to find a way to work with this guy. Congratulations. Please don't tariff us. Please don't cause any problems for our country." So, I do think we're going to see a lot of wins in the near term from countries all around the world because the alternative is problematic. And when you look at the G7, the G20, NATO, it is different from last time around in a few ways. First of all, that you now have a number of countries that are ideologically aligned with Trump, and there's going to be more in the near term. I mean, Giorgia Meloni, who is the most popular of G7 leaders, assertively, is someone who sees herself much closer to Trump's worldview in terms of immigration policy, social policy, even to a degree economic policy. And that is going to make him feel much more comfortable when he's sitting at those summits. That wasn't the case first G7 Summit he attended last time around.
Canada, still Justin Trudeau, but won't be for long and soon Canada's going to be Pierre Poilievre who runs the Conservative Party and is absolutely much more aligned with Trump and be a very close friend of the US President-elect when he becomes Prime Minister of Canada. Of course, you've got the Gulf states on board with Trump. You've got the Israelis much more aligned with him than otherwise. The South Korean leader, President Yoon, a conservative, taking up golf again so that he'll be able to play with Trump effectively and wants to be the new Shinzo Abe from Asia in terms of being able to maintain stable relations. That's one reason. The second reason is that there's a lot more at stake. The world is much more dangerous. Getting Trump wrong is a lot more costly when you've got a major war going on in Europe, a major war going on in the Middle East, when the US-China relations are in a worse place, but China's under much more economic pressure at home than they were before. So getting it wrong is trouble.
And so already seeing outreach from the Chinese to the United States saying, "Look, here are some things that might be the beginnings of a deal. We could buy more US treasuries. We could maybe organize a Ukraine conference. We could buy a bunch more American goods. What do we need to do? What do we need to do?" So I'm not saying it's going to go well, but clearly there is more such orientation. And then you have the fact that Trump is more powerful at home in the United States. He has the House, he has the Senate, and he's creating far more loyalists around him as opposed to adults that are more independent in his own cabinet. Which means that if you are a foreign leader, your ability to work around Trump with other parts of the US political firmament is very constrained. And all of that implies that whatever it is that Trump decides he wants to do going forward is going to be what other leaders are going to have to engage with and align with.
There are big problems from a Trump administration coming in. He's not interested in multilateralism. He doesn't want a strong European Union. He's prepared to end the Russia-Ukraine war, even at terms that are problematic for the Ukrainians. Has very little interest in promoting rule of law or democracy internationally. In fact, one of the most interesting things about Trump and the United States for right now is that for almost half a century, the US has been trying to get the Chinese to orient more towards an American worldview. This is what the idea of responsible stakeholdership was, that China was meant to play more of a leadership role in US-led multilateral institutions, promote US-led rule of law and values on the global stage, and become more aligned with the Americans and its allies over time as it got wealthier. Turns out China hasn't done that, but America has. The United States is becoming more like China on the global stage, much more transactional in their foreign policy, indifferent to the values of other countries or the political systems and economic system of other countries on the global stage.
Certainly not interested in the global promotion of democracy or even rule of law, and rather bilateral relations between the US and other countries where the US is more powerful to get the outcomes that they want. Exactly the way that Chinese engage globally. It has been successful for China in many places because they're more powerful than most of the other countries they deal with except the Americans. They've had challenges in Southeast Asia, for example, because the US has led a more multilateral approach on things like the South China Sea. Doubt you're going to see as much of that under Trump. So a very dramatic change in how we think about the world, and we'll be watching very closely as Trump continues to fill out his cabinet and starts talking much more with global leaders on the global stage.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Will offensive Puerto Rico remarks hurt Trump's chances?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US election a week away, why do Israelis prefer a Trump presidency?
Well, they see that he's prioritized Israel. His first presidency, he was the guy that went to Israel. This was his first trip right after going to the Gulf. That never happens with US presidents. He recognized the Golan Heights as being Israeli territory, the occupied territory they have. Had no problems with taking more territory in the West Bank. Moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. I mean, this has just been someone who has been significantly and consistently pro-Israel, and a lot of his money comes from some of the biggest Israeli-sponsored funds and funders in the United States. I suspect that that is the reason. Keep in mind, lots of US allies around the world. Most of them generally don't support Trump. They support Harris because "America First" is not considered exactly a happy marketing slogan if you don't happen to be American. But Israel, like Hungary, like El Salvador, like Argentina, a few others, the exceptions of that.
How might the results of the Georgia elections and subsequent protests affect political stability and EU membership prospects?
Well, the Georgia Dream Party that has won have said that they still want to join the European Union. But given the fact that they have moved their legal system in a more illiberal direction, they make it much harder for Georgia to join the EU. Of course, that process has been not moved forward while it did for Ukraine and for Moldova over the last year. Also, the fact that it looks like Georgia Dream has done everything they can to steal the elections through election monitors that we've seen in rural areas across the country. Again, not a way to move forward with the European Union. It looks a lot less likely and political instability in Georgia is something we're going to see a lot more of going forward.
To what extent will Puerto Rico and Latino voters sway the election in Kamala Harris's favor?
Hard to say. But the fact that there was a really offensive slur against Puerto Ricans on stage in advance of Trump's big rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend, one that even the Trump campaign felt the need to distance the president from, former president, which they almost never do. This is a guy that doubles down on almost everything is because there are a lot of Puerto Ricans that vote. That's particularly true in swing states, particularly true in Pennsylvania, several hundred thousand. Certainly, that's why Kamala Harris is immediately running ads and putting money behind it on the other side. Trump has not made many mistakes in the last couple of weeks that look like they're vote losers in swing states, and this is one in my view. Whoever this comic is, clearly the jokes weren't adequately vetted. But will it make a difference? Well, we'll see you on Tuesday. Right? This is a razor's edge election and it's going to be super close in my view. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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After Israel's response to Iran, what's next?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. No, not US elections, that'll be next week. This week. Want to talk about the Middle East and the fact that the Israelis almost a month after Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of them didn't get through and no Israeli deaths on the ground, nonetheless, the Israelis expected to respond. And respond they finally have.
Military targets that they focused on. They did some damage, caused more damage to Iran than the Iranians did to Israel during their attack. That's clearly a message that the Israelis intended to send in terms of their ability to have dominance over both escalation and deterrence between the two. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, on the back of that, said not to exaggerate or downplay the strikes, that the Iranians will respond, but also the Iranians said that they fully intercepted the Israeli attack. In other words, nothing big to see here. Crude oil down about 6% today. In other words, this is the end of this escalation cycle between Iran and Israel.
Now, I have been critical of the Biden administration's inability to have much of any impact on Israeli decision-making over the course of this war. This time is a little different, they did have some impact here. And in the early days after the Israelis were hit by Iran, and keep in mind the Iranians got that information that the strike was coming to the United States, the US, of course, immediately shared it with Israel and did everything they could to coordinate with allies in the region to defend Israel effectively, which helped to ensure that the Israelis didn't take casualties, significant casualties.
But also the Biden administration saying they really didn't want Israel to engage in strikes against nuclear targets in Iran, against oil targets in Iran. And they did a couple of things for Israel. First, they sent an additional THAAD missile defense system, which they got to Israel and set up within two weeks on the ground, which is incredible fast-tracking to help further defend Israel.
Secondly, they actually took sanctions, put sanctions on additional tankers that were shutting down their transponders and shipping oil illegally for Iranian export. Not everything. The Iranians have over a million barrels a day that they get out, but probably took about 200,000 barrels a day off the market. In other words, that's money that the Iranians no longer have access to that they were able to use for whatever they wanted, including paying for Iranian proxies that target Israel.
In response for that and American diplomacy, the Israelis ended up, I would argue, with a slightly more restrained strike against Iran. They did engage in hits against Iranian missile production facilities, as well as defense against their ... that helps to defend their nuclear, their research program and weapons program, such as it is, which means that Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively. So the message has been very, very clearly sent.
Of course, it was also helpful for Israel that they were able to kill Sinwar, the Palestinian Hamas leader, in Rafah, in Gaza, over the past couple of weeks. I mean, the Israeli war cabinet is flying high from a military perspective right now. They didn't need to show great capacity against Iran, nor have they, given their recent successes against Hezbollah.
I think it's interesting how Iran is responding to all of this, that we're seeing Iranian leaders, not just on the president and foreign affairs side, who are more reformist in orientation, but also recently Ali Velayati, who's an advisor to the Supreme Leader, saying that the Iranians are very interested in engaging more with the West, specifically with Europe. In other words, with the Iranians seeing that they are clearly on the back foot vis-a-vis Israel, is there any way that they can more effectively engage with the West, normalized relations, maybe end up with more money for their economy that way?
Certainly, I expect that they are also thinking heavily about what else they can do in their nuclear program, either illicitly or maybe with Russian support. But for now, it looks like Israel's policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town.
That's where we are right now. Those are the latest headlines, and for the next week we're going to be talking a lot about US elections. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a memorial ceremony of the Hamas Oct. 7 attack at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 27, 2024, where he was heckled by family members victims.
Calculated hit: Israel strikes Iranian military sites, avoids energy infrastructure
Iran and Israel appear to be standing down from further conflict after Israel struck military targets near Tehran but did not inflict damage on the country’s energy infrastructure. The Saturday morning attacks killed four soldiers and came in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile assault on Israel, which was a response toIsrael taking out top Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon in September.
Responding in measured tone. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the Israeli strikes must “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that Tehran was not looking for war with Israel but would respond “appropriately” and “defend the rights of our nation and country.”
Meanwhile, Iraq's government on Monday lodged a protest with the UN Security Council over Israel's use of Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.
Weekend at Bibi’s. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had both a good and bad weekend. The presiding judge of an International Criminal Court panel reviewing arrest warrant requests for Netanyahu, his defense minister, and senior Hamas leaders has been replaced due to medical reasons, which coulddelay proceedings. But Netanyahu was also heckled on Sunday by families of the victims of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks during a speech marking the tragedy in Jerusalem.
Earlier in the day, a truck rammed into a group of retirees at a bus stop near an Israeli military base north of the capital, killing one and injuring over 30 in a suspected terror attack. The incident follows another attack three weeks ago in which six people were stabbed – two fatally – in the town of Hadera, increasing pressure on the government to ensure internal security as the war with Hamas drags on.
Israeli soldiers stand guard as they deny access to Palestinian farmers to harvest olives, in Burqa near Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank October 20, 2024.
US probes intel leak, drones hit Bibi’s house
Washingtonis investigating a leak of highly classified intelligence about Israel’s preparations for a strike on Iran. Two reports, marked “top secret” and intended only for the US and its Five Eyes allies (Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand), began circulating last week on Telegram, a messaging app. They appear to have beenprepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and detail Israeli air force exercises and movements of munitions in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel.
House Speaker Mike Johnson described the leak as“very concerning” with the potential to damage relations between the US and Israel. They were posted to Telegram around the same time Washington gave Israel 30 days to increase aid to Gaza or risk cuts to its military aid.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern border while one of its dronesstruck the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday morning. Netanyahu, who was not home at the time, declared that nothing could deter Israel from winning the war and that “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake.” Iran denied responsibility for the attack, trying to distance itself from Hezbollah.
We’re watching how it affects US-Israeli relations ahead of the US election, and whether Washington will follow through on its threats over Gaza.Army Cpl. Rogelio Argueta, Patriot Launching Station Enhanced Operator-Maintainer, assigned with Task Force Talon, 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command gives commands, during a practice missile reload and unload drills on a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system trainer at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.
US deploys anti-missile system to Israel, UN accuses Israel of damaging base
The Biden administration is sending an anti-ballistic missile system to Israel to bolster the Jewish state’s defenses against potential Iranian attacks and underscore Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s defense, the Pentagon said Sunday. A deployment of 100 US troops will man the Thaad system.
The US has deployed Thaad systems to Israel twice before, once in 2019 and after the Oct. 7 attacks in 2023 — but the war has expanded, and the risks of escalation with US troops in the theater are higher.
Saber-rattling: The deployment follows discussions between American and Israeli officials over Israel’s plans to respond to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile strike on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s killings of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leaders. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant vowed last week that Israel’s strike would be “deadly, precise, and surprising,” but Washington has advised against the targeting of Iranian oil facilities and nuclear sites. On Sunday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchiwarned on X that while Iran wants peace, “we have no red lines in defending our people and interests.”
Meanwhile, Israel’s fights with Hezbollah and Hamas continue. On Sunday, a Hezbollah drone strike in the Israeli city of Binyamina near Haifa killed four soldiers and injured at least 60 people, according to Israeli rescue services. Israel also continued to strike Hamas in northern Gaza, killing at least 20 on Sunday. The UN says no food aid has been delivered since the beginning of October.
And then in Lebanon … On Sunday morning IsraeliPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that the United Nations Interim Force withdraw from southern Lebanon, claiming its forces were being used as “hostages” by Hezbollah.
According to the UN, two Israeli tanks forcibly entered a UNIFIL peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon on Sunday. The tanks left but reportedly fired shells nearby that sickened some of the base personnel. Israeldisputes this and maintains that Hezbollah terrorists fired anti-tank missiles at its troops close to a UNIFIL post and that an Israeli tank evacuating two dozen casualties came under fire and backed into the UNIFIL post.
Nevertheless, Israel was denounced by the UN as wellas by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who phoned Netanyahu on Sunday about the “unacceptable” incident. Italy, usually a staunch supporter of Israel, is the largest contributor to UNIFIL with 1,000 troops.
We’re watching how other UNIFIL countries respond and what the US deployment means for further escalation in the region.
Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant speaks next to prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv , Israel , 28 October 2023.
Israeli cabinet meets to decide on Iran response
Israel’s cabinet met Thursday night to debate and vote on a response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile barrage, but the results have not been made public. Iran’s attack on the Jewish state last week came in response to Israel killing high-level members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant previously said retaliation would be “deadly, precise and, above all, surprising” and the cabinet was expected to authorize a response at the discretion of Gallant and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The meeting came just ahead of Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement and holiest day of the year in Judaism.
As Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan told GZERO earlier this week, targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure would hurt its economy. We’re watching for escalation, as the current tit for tat began with the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Israeli forces carried out the deadliest strikes on Beirut yet, with at least 22 killed in one of the world’s oldest cities. Israeli soldiers also injured an unknown number of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, where at least three UN posts came under fire.FILE PHOTO: Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv , Israel , 28 October 2023.
Bibi and Biden speak after Israeli defense chief postpones US visit
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallantcanceled a much-anticipated trip to Washington on Wednesday, reportedly at the behest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who then held a call with US President Joe Biden himself instead. The visit had been expected to be an important opportunity to discuss Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran for its Oct. 1 rocket barrage, as well as the expanding campaign in Lebanon.
Netanyahu reportedly didn’t want Gallant to preempt his message before the Israeli cabinet votes on a response plan. Biden emphasized on his phone call with Netanyahu — the first time they had spoken in almost two months — that any response must be proportional. Speaking to reporters in Israel, Gallant said its strike on Iran “will be powerful, precise, and above all – surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened.”
Meanwhile, in the ruins of Gaza, Hamas’ new leader Yahya Sinwar reportedly issued a directive to revive the practice of suicide bombings shortly after taking over total control this summer. One attempt on Tel Aviv was botched in August when the explosives went off early, killing only the attempted bomber.
Suicide tactics were commonplace for Hamas 20 years ago during the Second Intifade, but the group renounced them to gain more political legitimacy. But with Hamas’ conventional military in shambles, these desperate acts of violence may be the last tool Sinwar has at hand.