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People gather at a petrol station in Bamako, Mali, on November 1, 2025, amid ongoing fuel shortages caused by a blockade imposed by al Qaeda-linked insurgents.
Mali’s insurgency spells trouble for West Africa
One of the most expansive countries in West Africa is on the precipice of falling to an Islamist group that has pledged to transform the country into a pre-modern caliphate.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM), a militant group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, has surrounded Mali’s capital Bamako, blocking fuel from entering the city of four million people, with the aim of bringing down the government.
If that happens, it could be a catastrophe for the 25 million people of Mali – particularly the country’s women.
“It would be the end of secular governance and a shift to a theocratic system and sharia law, the abolition of democracy, lots of violence and repression, massive displacements, terrible for women’s rights and deepening ethnic divides,” said Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
And it would be a geopolitical setback for the ruling military junta’s backers in Moscow.. But the damage could also, Ramier says, spread beyond Mali itself.
“It would be very bad for everyone,” Ramier said of JNIM’s potential takeover. “It would definitely affect countries beyond the Sahel and the whole West Africa region.”
Violent extremism has been a major issue across the Sahel for some time – an estimated 51% of all terrorism-related deaths in the world last year were in the region, per the Council on Foreign Relations. JNIM’s success in Mali has prompted similar uprisings in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. The most populous country in the region, Nigeria, has faced jihadist insurgencies from Boko Haram and West African offshoots of ISIS for 16 years. Even countries like Cote d’Ivoire, which has been relatively stable in recent years, hasn’t escaped the violence over the last decade, most notably in 2016 when militants murdered 16 people at a beach resort in Grand Bassam.
So what’s happening in Mali? Once a paragon of democracy in the region, Mali has been going through an internal conflict since 2012 when, in the middle of the Arab Spring, a US-trained Malian colonel overthrew the government.
The country has been under military rule and in flux ever since. A French invasion in 2013, welcomed by many Malians, was initially successful in knocking back Islamist groups that became active around the 2012 coup. But it quickly went awry, as militants reasserted themselves and a military junta that seized power in 2020 severed ties with the French, prompting Paris to withdraw troops later that year and abort the operation altogether in 2022. Russian mercenaries filled the power vacuum when the French left, backing the incumbent military regime which is now on the brink of collapse.
Which other countries are affected? JNIM also has a major presence in neighboring Burkina Faso, where it already controls 40% of the country amid a long running conflict that saw two coups in 2022 alone. Experts believe the momentum that the group has gathered in Mali will only make matters worse there.
Completing the so-called “coup belt” of Sahel countries run by military juntas is Niger, to Mali’s east. The military government there, which seized power in 2023, has also struggled to contain JNIM forces. Like Mali, Niger once had the help of a major outside player in tackling terrorism: the United States had a military presence there in a bid to boost the country’s counterterrorism efforts. US-Niger relations soured after the coup, though, and Washington withdrew all its soldiers from the country last year.
Where else could the jihadist insurgencies spread? Mauritania, Senegal, and even Côte d’Ivoire – all of which border Mali – could be the next targets for radicalization, said Ramier. Coastal states that don’t border Mali, like Ghana and Nigeria, may also be impacted.
Governments in these countries will seek to shore up security to prevent the insurgency spreading. They will deploy soldiers in areas where the militants are rampant. They will beef up border security. They may even seek help from western nations that would want to mitigate a potential migration crisis.
But the question will be whether they can work together to stem the spread. Ramier isn’t hopeful.
“I think the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS] will try to act and take a strong stance, but I think they will probably fail to turn the tide.”
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
Hurricane Melissa, which has developed into a Category 5 storm, moves north in the Caribbean Sea towards Jamaica and Cuba in a composite satellite image obtained by Reuters on October 27, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Major hurricane sweeping through Caribbean, Insurgents implement blockade in Mali, Côte d’Ivoire’s octogenarian leader wins again, Diphtheria on the rise
160,000: Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents are blocking shipments of fuel in Mali, spurring a shortage that has forced schools and gas stations to close. The insurgents are attempting to topple the military-led government. Russia said it would deliver over 160,000 tons of petroleum and agriculture products as it tries to deepen ties with the West African country – though how and when this aid will arrive isn’t clear.
4: Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara, who is 83, won a fourth term in office, with his former Commerce Minister Jean-Louis Billon conceding defeat following Saturday’s election. Ouattara had clamped down on both the opposition and protests in the build up to the election, and his main two rivals were barred from running (read more here).
30,000: Diphtheria, a bacterial disease that is fatal to young children, is making a worrying comeback in parts of the developing world. In Nigeria, the most-populous country in Africa, nearly 30,000 cases have been reported over the last two years. There have also been outbreaks in Chad, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Lower immunization rates have allowed the disease to spread.
Kenyan workers prepare clothes for export at the New Wide Garment Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Kitengela, Kajiado County, Kenya, on September 19, 2025.
Is the US set to terminate a 33-country trade deal?
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade pact that allows many products from 32 sub-Saharan African states to have free access to US markets, is set to expire in less than a week.
The White House still hasn’t said whether it will renew it.
First signed in 2000 by then-US President Bill Clinton, who saw it as a way to spread democratic ideals in parts of Africa, the deal hasn’t always lived up to expectations. Trade between the countries involved did initially rise, but has since dropped. For most of the countries involved, exports under AGOA account for less than 1% of GDP.
“AGOA’s highly imperfect. It’s a trade regime, and some countries have clearly done better than others,” Brookings Institution senior fellow Witney Schneidman, who was involved in passing and implementing AGOA, told GZERO. “But it needs to be strengthened, not killed.”
Which African nations are the main beneficiaries? South Africa has been by far the biggest beneficiary in terms of raw numbers, exporting nearly $56 billion in non-petroleum products under AGOA from 2001-2022 – specifically, car manufacturers based in South Africa have benefitted immensely. Renewing AGOA was a big reason why South African President Cyril Ramaphosa travelled to Washington in May. Nigeria, the next biggest partner, exported $11.2 billion under AGOA in that timeframe.
As a proportion of output, the country most reliant on AGOA is one that reportedly “nobody has ever heard of”: Lesotho. This landlocked country in southern Africa has built a significant textiles and garments sector on the back of AGOA, such that exports under the trade agreement account for 10% of its total GDP. An end to AGOA, on top of the 15% tariffs implemented at the start of August, would devastate the country’s two million people.
“Lesotho is the biggest beneficiary today, with the least alternative to fill the economic gap,” Ronald Osumba, a political strategist who once ran to be Kenya’s vice president, told GZERO.
For other countries, the importance of AGOA revealed itself when they were no longer included in the pact. Ethiopia was suspended from the pact in 2022 over “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” during the Tigray War. Exports to the United States have plummeted since, several firms have left the country, and over ten thousand jobs are now gone. It was even worse for Madagascar when it was temporarily suspended from the pact in 2010: its GDP dropped 11%.
So what’s in AGOA for the US? Put simply, counterbalancing China and Russia.
“Africa is shifting east,” said Osumba. “China and Russia are having more influence on the continent today than any other time.” Renewing AGOA could help the US balance that influence.
Why does it matter? AGOA nations hold a sizable chunk of the world’s rare-earth minerals. Five of the top 15 sources of rare-earth minerals worldwide are in AGOA. In particular, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, a mineral that is needed for the production of electric minerals. If AGOA isn’t extended, Osumba warned, Washington’s access to these critical minerals could be curtailed.
“There’s a concern there for the US in terms of access to natural resources.”
For Schneidman, it’s not just access to critical minerals: It’s also about leaving business opportunities on the table. He argued that, when it comes to using “trade over aid,” the Trump administration isn’t putting its money where its mouth is, vacating the area to its own detriment.
What’s stopping the US from renewing? US President Donald Trump’s general approach to trade and tariffs provides some hints. He is unafraid to use levies as a way to punish countries who he believes distort markets – the high levies he placed on countries including Brazil, China, India, and South Africa are a testament to this. AGOA grants members states tariff-free to US markets, but doesn’t give American firms anything in return, so it’s possible that Trump sees this as unfair. Plus, his “America First” foreign policy suggests he doesn’t share Clinton’s desire for democracy to spread worldwide.
But Frank Matsaert, an African trade & infrastructure expert at the Tony Blair Institute, believes the punt on AGOA renewal goes beyond this: he believes there’s an information gap.
“They’re not as aware of the potential effects of not renewing it,” Matsaert told GZERO. “If AGOA isn’t renewed, that could threaten $42 billion of bilateral trade.”
Is there any chance of a last minute change? Osumba isn’t hopeful.
“If it was to be done, this conversation should have already started a long time ago.”
Matsaert, meanwhile, retains some hope, providing that someone tells the US president the value of AGOA to his nation.
“This has had a big, positive impact on Africa. It could continue to have a positive impact, particularly at a time when the US is trying to diversify its supply chains,” said Matsaert. “The US consumer benefits, Africa benefits. Why not extend this?”
Supporters of coalition parties PDCI (Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire) and PPA-CI (African People's Party of Cote d'Ivoire) march to protest the removal of their leaders names, Tidjane Thiam and Laurent Gbagbo, from the electoral list calling for an inclusive and peaceful election in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, August 9, 2025.
Africa’s age gap: Young nations, old rulers, big problems
Africa is one of the youngest regions on earth, with a median age of just 19.7 in 2020 – more than ten years less than any other continent. Yet several of its most powerful leaders are in their 70s and 80s – and they’re refusing to cede power, despite growing opposition to their rule.
In recent days, thousands have protested in Ivory Coast, after the country’s electoral commission barred opposition leaders from October’s election, in which President Alassane Ouattara, 83, is seeking a fourth term. Challengers were also recently excluded in upcoming elections in Cameroon, paving the way for 92-year-old President Paul Biya to win an eighth seven-year term, and possibly rule until age 100.
The gerontocracy generation. A study of elections during the period 2018-2021 found that, out of 28 African countries that went to the polls, only one – Ethiopia – chose a president or prime minister who was under the age of 50. Nineteen of the 28 winners were over 60, and as of late 2024, eleven were over 70.
They include 82-year-old Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea, in power for 45 years, and Denis Sassou Nguesso of Congo, 79, who has led for 40 years. The second oldest, 83-year-old Nangolo Mbumba of Namibia, did relinquish power in late 2024, only to hand it to a 72-year old successor, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah.
In May 2025, the West African nation of Togo made headlines after President Faure Gnassingbé, 59, rewrote the constitution to give himself a term-limit-free role as president of the country’s council of ministers, leaving the country’s actual president, Jean-Lucien Savi de Tove, as little more than a figurehead. Critics, and protesters in the streets, viewed this as a “constitutional coup” meant to indefinitely extend the Gnassingbé family’s 60-year grip on power.
And looking ahead, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, 73, is already backed by his party for elections slated for 2027, while Liberian President Joseph Boakai, 80, is attempting to complete his reform agenda in a country still recovering from civil war.
What’s the political impact?
Critics say the age gap between voters and leaders is a recipe for unrest, repression, and revolution. They point to examples such as Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, elected again in 2013 at the age of 89, who was deposed in a coup four years later. What’s more, when long-entrenched leaders approach the end of their reign, intense and sometimes violent succession battles often break out, frequently within presidential families. Simply put, governance can become brittle when leaders never leave.
All of this could complicate the region’s ability to grapple with a range of pressing issues, including militancy, jihadist violence, a wave of coups, and intensifying external competition and meddling.
And there is a further concern: the erosion or abuse of nominally democratic institutions is fueling disillusionment with the idea of democracy itself. Although polling across African countries still show a strong majority in favor of democracy and against one-man rule, that support has flagged in recent years, while acceptance of military rule has crept up. When citizens increasingly equate democracy with gerontocracy, those trends make sense.
Fleeing office workers run from the scene of an active shooter in Midtown Manhattan, Monday, June 28, 2025, in New York City.
Hard Numbers: Shooter kills four in New York skyscraper, Deadly floods in China, Abducted Nigerians killed after ransom payment sent & More
4: A gunman killed four people, including a police officer, at a Midtown Manhattan skyscraper in New York City on Monday. The shooter, identified as Shane Tamura, was armed with an M4 assault rifle when he entered the building, which is home to the headquarters of the National Football League (NFL) and other corporations. Tamura was carrying a note claiming that he suffered from chronic traumatic encephalopathy – a degenerative brain disease common among football players – because of the NFL.
38: At least 38 people are dead after days of heavy rains and flooding in Northern China, prompting President Xi Jinping to initiate “all-out” search and rescue efforts on Monday. The extreme weather has also led officials to evacuate 80,000 residents from Beijing, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
35: Nigerian gunmen killed at least 35 hostages despite receiving a ransom payment of 50 million naira ($32,600) for the release of 56 people that they had abducted from a village in northern Nigeria. Mass kidnappings are commonplace in Africa’s most populous country, and there has been a spate of them in the first half of 2025 (read more here).
1: In a bid to better control online information and protect “moral and ethical values”, Kyrgyzstan’s government has decreed that all internet traffic will be handled by one state monopoly. As part of the move, the small Central Asian nation has also banned online “skin flicks” (sorry for the archaic term, readers, but we’ve got spam filters to beat!)
13: After a case that lasted 13 years, a Colombian lower court judge found former President Álvaro Uribe guilty of bribery on Monday, in what was the first major criminal conviction of an ex-leader in Colombia. The conservative Uribe, who led the country from 2002 to 2010, will likely appeal the ruling, meaning the case is far from over.
Members of the Bangladesh Army and the fire service start rescue operations after a Bangladesh Air Force F7 aircraft crashed into a building of Milestone College in Dhaka's Uttara around 1:30 pm on July 21, 2025 in Dhaka, Bangladesh
Hard Numbers: Bangladesh military jet crashes into school, Argentina’s economy contracts again, Texas Republicans get to gerrymandering, & More
31: A Bangladesh Air Force plane crashed onto a school campus in the country’s capital Dhaka on Monday, following a reported mechanical failure, killing at least 31 people. Most of the victims were children. The plane was a Chinese-made fighter jet called the F-7 BGI that aimed to replicate the design of the Russian MiG.
100: Around 100 mostly US and European organizations were compromised in a far-reaching cyber attack campaign targeting Microsoft SharePoint servers over the past few days, including federal and state agencies, universities, and energy companies. While the attacker has yet to be identified, Google has said Chinese-backed hackers were behind at least one of the attacks.
-0.1: Argentina’s economy contracted 0.1% in May, marking the third time this year that it has shrunk. Falling wages and rising unemployment depressed demand, leading to the drop. Although President Javier Milei has won plaudits for bringing down inflation with his “chainsaw” approach to spending, the sputtering economy could hurt him ahead of midterm legislative elections in October.
38: Texas Republicans are moving forward with a plan to redraw the boundaries of the state’s 38 congressional districts in a bid to win more US House seats. This kind of gerrymandering is usually done only in the wake of the decennial Census. The move, pushed by president Trump, comes with both legal and political risks, which may explain why Texas Gov. Greg Abbot (R) was initially reluctant to greenlight the plan.
30%: Nigeria’s GDP in 2024 jumped by 30% after Africa’s most populous nation recalibrated its statistical models Previous GDP calculations omitted the country's digital services industry, pension funds, and the informal labour market, which employs most citizens.
1: School’s out for summer, and the US House is following suit tomorrow night, after Speaker Mike Johnson announced he will shut down the lower chamber one day early. The reason: he didn’t want to put up a vote on whether to release all the files related to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s case.
Nigerian Army soldiers patrol near the scene after a deadly gunmen attack in Yelwata, Benue State, Nigeria, on June 16, 2025.
What’s behind a surge of violence in Africa’s most populous country?
Earlier this month, Nigeria’s human rights agency reported that the country suffered more killings by insurgents and bandits in the first half of 2025 alone than in all of 2024.
That level of violence in Africa’s most populous country – and a major oil producer at that – should raise alarm bells. But experts from the country caution that there are a few ways to look at this data, which has only been kept consistently since 2024 to begin with.
First, the patterns of violence in Nigeria are shifting. For years, the largest threat in the country was the jihadist group Boko Haram and its various offshoots, which terrorized the northern reaches of the country with killings and kidnappings. But Nigeria’s security services have steadily ground them down, according to Amaka Anku, a Nigeria expert at Eurasia Group.
“Boko Haram is pretty much non-existent,” she says. “ISWAP [a local ISIS offshoot] does a few things, but that’s not the majority of where [the violence is coming from].”
So who are the perpetrators?
In fact, much of the recent increase is the result instead of violence in the central states between farmers and herders, as settled cultivators and nomadic cattle shepherds fight over valuable resources of land and water.
“A lot of what’s driven the number up is the killings in Benue state” says Anku, referring to the central Nigerian state where much of this type of violence is concentrated. Of the 606 killings reported in June by the country’s human rights agency, roughly 200 were in Benue alone.
Climate change is one of the underlying factors for the violence. The desertification of once-fertile areas of northern Nigeria has pushed herders south toward the central parts of the country – like Benue – which have seen longer rainy seasons. This has put them in conflict with farmers. There is a sectarian overlay as well: herders are typically Muslim, while farmers are usually Christian.
But there may also be a statistical anomaly in the numbers.
2024 was the first year that this data was kept, and that happened to be the first full calendar year of President Bola Tinubu’s premiership. He won power in part on a promise to rein in violence. To achieve this, the government launched a fresh security crackdown, while some state governments have even explored doing deals directly with criminal groups.
“Sometimes, the government is trying to negotiate with the bandits,” Aliyu Dahiru, a Nigerian journalist who reports for Human Angle, told GZERO. “It will give them money and say, ‘OK, let’s negotiate. You’ll stop attacking this particular location and we are going to stop attacking you.”
There’s just one problem, per Dahiru: there is no single leader of all Nigeria’s violent groups. The government may strike a deal with a head honcho, or the military may even kill one, but more groups will just spring up in their stead, says Dahiru, and the cycle continues.
“While you’re attacking [one] group, another one is getting more sophisticated, attacking more villages,” says Dahiru. “Before you know it, it’s a typical issue in that region.”
As a result, the uptick in 2025 may in fact be a reversion to the mean after a particularly successful year rather than an unprecedented spike.
Will this hurt Tinubu politically? The next election is just over 18 months away, and the most pressing problem for the president right now isn’t security, but rather skyrocketing inflation. Nonetheless, if current trends continue, violence could well become a defining electoral issue again , says Anku, meaning Tinubu will have to confront the problem again very soon.
“It ends up getting a lot more attention closer to an election, because you can whip up a lot of fear over it, right?”