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2023 game changers that weren’t
What we thought would stir up the political landscape in 2023… but didn’t.
1. Ron DeSantis
Earlier this year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was widely viewed as perhaps the only Republican who could give former President Donald Trump a run for his money in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. He was seen as a younger, more polished version of Trump in many ways. But DeSantis’ heavy focus on fueling culture wars – his anti-woke crusade – fell flat with voters in 2023. His underwhelming and often awkward performances on the debate stage haven’t helped. Indeed, as the year comes to a close, there are few signs that DeSantis has any real shot of seizing the nomination over Trump – his approval has even fallen in Florida.
2. Yevgeny Prigozhin
Though he was 2023’s most colorful character, the exploits of this soldier of fortune, entrepreneur, media star, violent sociopath, and former hot dog vendor amounted to sound and fury signifying not much. He briefly led a mutiny that challenged the Kremlin’s power as bemused Russians and fascinated foreigners watched. Realizing too late he had too few friends in Moscow, he retreated, then later went down in a phony plane crash. Now, nothing is left but the noise.
3. The Earthquake in Turkey
In February, a massive earthquake rocked southeastern Turkey, killing 60,000 people, displacing 1.5 million, and exposing rampant corruption in the building safety bureaucracy. At the time, many thought President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s sluggish response would kill the strongman’s chances of reelection at a moment when the opposition was gaining momentum. Not so. Erdogan’s blend of Islamist populism and pugnacious foreign policy carried him comfortably back to the White Palace after all.
4. Nigeria’s youth voters
Since the country’s return to democracy in 1999, Nigeria’s politics have been dominated by two parties, the APC and PDP, and Nigerians were gearing up for another uninspiring choice in the 2023 elections — until dark horse candidate Peter Obi made his move. He broke with the PDP and threw in with the little-known Labour Party, launching an energetic campaign on social media that promised change. He captured the imagination of Nigeria’s booming youth cohort, and with the backing of ethnic Yoruba elders as well, Obi looked promising enough to make the powers that be sweat. But he came up short in an election he maintains was rigged against him, even after a court ruling upheld the results.
- How Turkey's earthquake may shape the future of its democracy ›
- DeSantis in a storm ›
- Nigeria elects political “Godfather" as president ›
- Prigozhin presumed dead ›
- GZERO End-of-the-Year lists: Top 5 political animals of 2023 ›
- 10 images that captured 2023 - GZERO Media ›
- GZERO 2023 political music playlist - GZERO Media ›
Bola Tinubu reacts after he was declared the winner in Nigeria's presidential election at his party's campaign headquarters, in Abuja.
Nigeria elects political “Godfather" as president
It took a while and there was a lot of post-election drama, but Nigeria finally has a new president-elect: Bola Tinubu.
The ruling party candidate was declared the winner early Wednesday, five days after a vote marred by a slower-than-expected count and problems with tallying. Before the electoral commission made the call, Tinubu's rivals had demanded that officials cancel the result and redo the election because the outcome had been “manipulated” by results sheets being posted online.
While any legal challenges to his victory by opposition hopeful Atiku Abubakar and insurgent third-party candidate Peter Obi make their way through the courts, Tinubu is the president-elect and officially takes over in May. Who is he, and what are his plans for Africa's most populous nation and largest economy?
Known as Nigeria's political "Godfather," the former governor of Lagos has a lot of experience. So much, in fact, that his campaign pitch was: "It's my turn."
For his supporters, Tinubu — who wears a skullcap emblazoned with broken shackles to symbolize his freedom after dictator Sani Abacha forced him into exile — is a savvy politico who knows how to exercise power in front of and behind the scenes. He transformed Nigeria's biggest city from a chaotic asphalt jungle into a bustling metropolis by attracting foreign investment.
But his critics argue that Tinubu is just another member of the corrupt political class who can't justify his vast wealth. What's more, he's alienated Christians by picking a fellow Muslim as his running mate, and his poor health at 70 means that he might not be up to the job. (No way, says Tinubu, who during the campaign showed off his stamina by posting a video on an exercise bike.)
Fears about his fitness seem overblown to Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group’s top Africa analyst.
“Despite his health issues, Tinubu is much more assertive than [current President Muhammadu] Buhari. He follows issues, he is engaged, he is a politician. He is unlike Buhari, who doesn’t talk,” she says. “As a Nigerian president, you have to be the coach and the referee.”
Tinubu hopes to fix Nigeria's (many) problems by first curing its economic ills. He wants to massively improve revenue generation for the state, which he excelled at when he ran Lagos. Similarly, he aims to limit borrowing and draw in foreign cash.
Also, "Tinubu has a clear brain trust around him," Anku says. And as the ruling party's pick, he is "well placed to move quickly" on unpopular yet unavoidable policies such as nixing fuel subsidies, which last year cost the government $10 billion it could hardly afford.
Yet, he's the first Nigerian president to win the top job without a popular majority — and his rivals have cried foul over his victory. The opposition has 21 days to legally challenge the results, but then it could take up to eight months for the dispute to be resolved — like in 2019, when the supreme court threw out Abubakar’s contest against Buhari’s re-election.
Supporters of the losing candidates have already taken to the streets of Lagos and Abuja. Whether the protests turn into widespread unrest will largely depend on what the president-elect and other politicians say and do over the next few days and weeks.
What does this outcome mean for popular confidence in elections? "Low trust in Nigerian democracy isn’t based on process issues but rather on the state's inability to deliver" things like public services or security, Anku says. The failure to do so explains why satisfaction with democracy has plummeted from 84% in 2000 to 21% in 2022.
While the process might look messy now, it has improved a lot since Nigeria ended military rule in 1999. For instance, she adds, having a competitive third-party candidate like Obi "is a huge deal.”
"This would not happen in the US today. And it's a clear expression of the people’s discontent and frustration with the political establishment," Anku says. "People just need to get used to the fact that you may not always get the candidate you want."
Electoral campaign posters are seen ahead of Nigeria's Presidential elections, in Yola, Nigeria, February 23, 2023.
What We're Watching: Nigerians vote, Biden's World Bank pick
Nigeria's presidential election head-scratcher
Nigerians go to the polls Saturday to vote in what is being billed as the most open presidential election in Africa's most populous country since democracy was restored in 1999. That's mostly thanks to buzz about Peter Obi, a third-party candidate who's leading most polls ahead of both Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling party's pick, and opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. With almost half the electorate undecided, Obi faces tough odds. First, to win outright, he must get the most votes nationwide and at least 25% in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states – but he doesn’t have strong party machinery to turn out voters. Second, if no candidate meets both conditions, the election goes to a runoff between the most-voted for candidate and — here's where it gets complicated — the one who placed second in the highest number of states. Also, keep an eye out for the rollout of machines to verify biometric voter ID to curb fraud. If the devices malfunction or are not widely deployed, expect many Nigerians to consider the election anything but free and fair.
Interested in the Nigerian election? Listen to Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, on this GZERO podcast in collaboration with The Center for Global Development podcast.
Biden picks ex-credit card exec to lead World Bank
President Joe Biden will nominate former Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga to replace the outgoing David Malpass as president of the World Bank. (The institution is traditionally led by a US citizen picked by the White House, while a European heads the International Monetary Fund, its sister org.) The selection of Banga is somewhat puzzling since he lacks a specific or public-sector background in climate change. The Biden administration wants the World Bank to focus on the issue, and Banga’s nomination comes just months after Malpass got in a political firestorm over his views on climate science. (He later denied being a climate denier on GZERO World.) Still, Banga has experience managing a multinational corporation and prioritized the climate at Mastercard. Perhaps Biden thinks he can run the World Bank more like, well, a bank, to mobilize private-sector climate finance — cash to help mainly developing nations do things like transition to more green energy.
A woman stands in front of electoral campaign posters of Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and members of the People's Democratic Party, ahead of Nigeria's Presidential elections, in Yola, Nigeria, February 21, 2023.
Podcast: Nigeria’s presidential election is a critical moment for Africa
Listen: On February 25, Africa’s most populous nation heads to the polls to vote for a new president in what is shaping up to be a hotly contested race. Nigeria has one of the fastest growing populations globally, one that could surpass the United States by 2050. And it’s a young country—75% of registered voters are under 50 years old. The candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party are all vying to replace the outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari.
To help you better understand the Nigerian election and what’s at stake, GZERO is handing over this podcast feed today to Amaka Anku, Head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice. She brings us a conversation from the The Center for Global Development podcast moderated by CGD’s Senior Policy Fellow Gyude Moore.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Supporters of Labour Party candidate Peter Obi attend a campaign rally in Lagos.
Will this month’s presidential election bring change to Nigeria?
With less than two weeks until election day on Feb. 25, three leading candidates are locked in a tight race to be Nigeria’s next president. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party have the backing of powerful get-out-the-vote operations. But Peter Obi of the Labour Party — who has promised to overhaul the country’s politics and create a “new Nigeria” — is leading several voting-intention surveys conducted in the run-up to the vote.
What does this all mean for the election outcome and the prospect for solutions to the country’s social and economic problems? We asked Eurasia Group expert Amaka Anku for her thoughts.
Why is Obi performing so strongly?
Nigerians are frustrated over decades of underinvestment in infrastructure (including roads and electricity), education, and healthcare – all the things that make an economy competitive and create inclusive growth. Their frustrations are directed at the political establishment represented by the major political parties, the PDP and the APC, that have run the country since the transition to democracy in 1999. They hope that Obi can break the cycle of underinvestment and poverty.
Why deposit this hope in Obi?
There are several reasons for this. Obi is a relative newcomer to Nigerian politics compared to either Tinubu or Atiku. He entered politics in the early 2000s whereas both Atiku and Tinubu have been heavily involved in Nigerian politics since prior to the transition to democracy.
Obi is also a Christian from the south of the country, which gives his candidacy a unique potency at the moment. Nigeria has a tradition of rotating the presidency between the largely Muslim north and the largely Christian south. Current President Muhammadu Buhari is a northern Muslim, so according to this custom, the next president should be a southern Christian. Yet the main opposition PDP chose Atiku, a former vice president and a Muslim, as its nominee. That has split the opposition vote in the south. And the APC chose Tinubu, a southern Muslim as its presidential nominee, and a northern Muslim as the party’s vice-presidential candidate, creating the first Muslim-Muslim ticket since 1999. That has alienated Christian communities across the country. So, for those who want to ensure strong Christian representation in the presidency, Obi fits the bill.
Do you think Obi can prevail against the establishment?
Obi is leading in the polls, but it’s important to note the country doesn’t have a long history of polling and modeling voter turnout. So, it’s hard to know how surveys of voter intentions will translate into actual votes. Obi’s Labour Party doesn’t govern any states or control any legislatures. You need to have people in every community, in every village who are going to knock on doors and provide people with water, food, and whatever else is needed to get their votes. This is where the APC and PDP have a huge advantage. Another big weakness of Obi’s candidacy is that his support is primarily concentrated in the south, and Nigerian election law requires winners to meet certain vote thresholds across the country’s 36 states. Given all this, I think one of the two establishment candidates will win the election.
What are the biggest issues for voters?
The economy and security. Nigeria has experienced two recessions since 2015, unemployment is more than 30%, and there is widespread underemployment. Serious military operations against the Boko Haram terrorist group in the northeast of the country have reduced the threat it has posed since 2015. But the criminal groups in the northwest have grown stronger and more active over the last six years, fighting among themselves, attacking local communities, and kidnapping people for ransom.
What does the next president need to do to address these problems?
There are two critical things. First, you have to raise tax revenue. At just about 6% of GDP, federal tax revenue is far below the average for sub-Saharan African countries of about 18%, let alone the much higher levels of the industrialized nations of the OECD. Without money, you can’t invest in a more professional police force. You can't invest in better infrastructure that will enable businesses to thrive. You must create and communicate a new national vision and get enough people to buy into it so that they will want to pay taxes. Second, you must have a strong bureaucracy to spend the money you raise effectively.
Do you think these presidential candidates can address these challenges?
Both Atiku and Obi have focused a lot more on reducing Nigeria's debt and cutting inefficient government spending. But although you can always redirect any government’s spending in more efficient ways, I think raising revenue is by far the more urgent problem for Nigeria. If you look at Nigeria’s total government spending, it’s already far below that of its peers in sub-Saharan Africa. Tinubu has done a better job talking about revenue generation because he has a record of addressing this issue in Lagos. But I think he would struggle with articulating a clear vision and getting Nigerians to support it because, if he wins, a lot of people will feel cheated. Those who wanted change may feel alienated with the same party in power for another eight years.
So, it sounds like you’re pessimistic ...?
Not necessarily. I mean, the challenges are great, yes, but I do believe there’s never been a greater sense of urgency to address some of the population’s needs. One clear example of this is the emerging consensus on removing the fuel subsidies that cost Nigeria almost $10 billion last year. That's $10 billion that wasn't spent on healthcare, education, or roads. I think the massive protests against police violence in 2020 and other signs of mounting discontent have convinced the political class that if it doesn’t make some fundamental changes, it could have serious governance challenges on its hands in the future.
Nigeria’s Risky Business
Nigeria's president and his challenger in hotly-contested elections are blaming each other for a Eurasia Group report that listed their country as among the world's top risks for 2019.
The report detailed Nigeria's "intractable problems," and said presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, would "focus on enriching himself and his cronies" should he triumph. The report also called President Muhammadu Buhari "politically weak," "elderly" and "infirm." Both camps reportedly claimed the report was paid for by the opposing party. But a spokesman for President Muhammadu Buhari went further, asking the New York-based organization to produce a medical report of the president to verify its findings. "If that group does not publish an authenticated medical report along with their report, they should hide their head in shame," Buhari Campaign spokesman Festus Keyamo reportedly said. Nigerians head to the polls on February 16 in their country's most fiercely sought after elections since the transition to democracy in 1999.