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What does Russia give in exchange for North Korean troops?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What are the global consequences of North Korean soldiers now appearing on the frontlines in Ukraine?
Well, I think first, it's a reflection of the fact that Russia President Putin, does have difficulties getting the manpower to man the front lines. He has difficulty recruiting in Russia itself. He's dependent upon soldiers, and evidently, he's now dependent upon North Korea to supply the front lines. I mean, that's a sign of at least long-term weakness in terms of Russia. Then the question is, of course, what has he given in return to the sort of dictator in Pyongyang? In all probability, high-tech and different sorts of military equipment. And that, of course, has serious implications or potential serious implications for stability on the Korean Peninsula. So there are consequences on the frontlines in Russia and on the Korean Peninsula.
What’s the nature of the agreements that German Chancellor Scholz concluded during his recent visit to Delhi?
Well, apart from bilateral German-Indian things, he was putting an amount of pressure on the Indians to move forward on the negotiations ongoing for a free trade agreement between the European Union and India. That's been negotiations that have been going on for quite some time. It's been a valley of tears because of slightly different approaches from the European and the Indian side. But it's clearly very much in the mutual interest to have such an agreement concluded, particularly since we don't know what's going to happen in the US. And more choppy waters when it comes to global trade. So let's see if there is any progress coming out of the visit. It remains to be seen.
North Korean troops move into Russia’s border area with Ukraine
Soldiers sent by Pyongyang have moved into Russia’s Kursk region, an area along the Russia-Ukraine border where Ukrainian forces staged a surprise incursion in August, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.” Ukraine, its Western allies, and South Korea have all expressed concerns that North Korean troops will begin fighting alongside Russian forces.
As Pyongyang and Moscow bolster ties, Seoul is worried Russia could reward North Korea – which has supplied ballistic missiles and ammunition rounds to Russia for its war in Ukraine – with advanced weapons and technology that could threaten South Korea’s national security. In response, the South Korean government has warned that it could provide Kyiv with arms.
Though Russia pushed back on previous reports of North Korean troops within its borders, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday didn’t deny their presence.
We’ll be watching to see if North Korean troops engage Ukrainian forces in the days ahead.
How will South Korea respond to North Korean troops in Russia?
The US on Wednesday confirmed that North Korea has troops in Russia. Though the nature of their mission is unclear, this marks a significant escalation that could see the Korean peninsula get involved in the war in Ukraine.
This comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned recently that North Korean troops could soon join Russian forces in the war against Ukraine. Seoul says roughly 3,000 North Korean troops are already in Russia with several thousand more promised to arrive.
Still, experts believe North Korean troops will have a limited impact on the ground.
“The number of troops is small relative to the numbers Russia has committed to the invasion,” says Alex Brideau, a Russia expert at Eurasia Group. While “an influx of new troops helps Russia maintain its offensive operations,” it’s unclear how many there will be or how they’ll be deployed.
But South Korea is not amused. It has warned Moscow it could begin supplying weapons to Kyiv — a step it’s avoided so far due to a policy against sending arms to countries actively involved in conflicts — as the Kremlin deepens ties with Pyongyang.
“South Korea is constrained both legally and politically from providing weapons directly to Ukraine — as it has threatened to do since the Putin-Kim summit in June — but could provide them indirectly through the US and Eastern European countries,” says Jeremy Chan, a Korea expert at Eurasia Group.
Seoul has also been reluctant to negatively impact long-term relations with Moscow, says Chan. But if it proceeds, he says, it has “world-class weaponry that could meaningfully change Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities.”
“South Korea’s top concern remains what support Russia is providing North Korea in return for the troops,” says Chan. “Technological assistance to Pyongyang’s ballistic and nuclear weapons capabilities remain the redline for South Korea, although there has not been any public confirmation of these transfers yet.”
Hard Numbers: UK prisons hit capacity, Lula’s head injury keeps him home from BRICS, South Korea mulls sending weapons to Ukraine, Peru’s former president convicted
5: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will not be attending the BRICS summit in person this week in Russia because he is recovering from a serious head injury following a fall at home over the weekend. According to his doctor, the fall caused “great” trauma to the back of his head, requiring five stitches for the injury and resulting in a “small brain hemorrhage” in the temporal-frontal region.
1,500: A senior official from the office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said Tuesday that Seoul could consider providing defensive and lethal weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea purportedly shipping 1,500 special forces personnel to Russia to assist in the war. The prospect underscores the potential for the divided Korean peninsula to become entangled in the conflict in Eastern Europe.
20: Peru’s former President Alejandro Toledo was convicted of taking bribes from Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht and sentenced to 20 years in prison on Monday. Toledo, a 78-year-old economist, is convicted of taking $35 million in bribes from Odebrecht in exchange for letting it build the road connecting Peru’s southern coast with an Amazonian area in western Brazil.
Russia and China put on a brave face in defense meeting
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousovmet with China’s top civilian defense official Zhang Youxia on Tuesday in Beijing, where both sides pledged to “continue working closely” to deepen military relations. However, the “no limits” partnership Beijing and Moscow committed to two years ago is proving unworthy of the moniker.
For one, China has proven reluctant to provide Russia with the weapons and shells it wants to wage war in Ukraine. Even Beijing’s more restrained shipments of “dual use” goods — civilian items with military applications like computer chips, machine components, and navigation equipment — has attracted opprobrium from the US and Europe.
But China isn’t just losing leverage with Russia and the US: North Korea has been happy to step in and send Russia approximately half the shells it uses in Ukraine, and even reportedly deploy troops to the battlefield. Beijing isn’t willing to match Pyongyang — or, evidently, rein them in.
All eyes are now on next week’s BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, where Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will meet. China would like to show a united front at the big international conference, but the expansion of the group’s membership to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (and also kinda sorta Saudi Arabia) makes it hard to get on the same page about any given geopolitical issue. We’re watching how they talk about Ukraine next week.
North Korea severs connections to South as tensions climb
South Korea’s military announced Monday it had detected North Korea preparing to destroy roads connecting the two countries, the latest in a series of steps advancing Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s renunciation of peaceful reunification. Pyongyang also threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions this weekend and announced it would begin fortifying its side of the border last week.
Kim’s sister and close ally Kim Yo Jong also flung invective at Seoul’s troops on Monday, calling them “mongrels tamed by Yankees” and saying that their “master” — the US — must be held accountable for the alleged drone flights over the Hermit Kingdom. On Friday, South Korea’s defense minister denied responsibility for the drones, which allegedly dropped anti-regime leaflets, and later said “we cannot verify the truth behind North Korea’s claims.” It is highly likely that any drones were flown by private organizations that attempt to agitate in North Korea and have distributed leaflets by balloon in the past.
All in all, Pyongyang’s provocations — which, lest we forget, include deploying troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine — are part of a pattern of escalation dating back to at least the fall of 2023, says Eurasia Group regional analyst Jeremy Chan. Whether it continues may depend heavily on the results of the US election, as “North Korea is trying to build out leverage it could bargain away in a potential future Trump administration while retaining its nuclear deterrent,” says Chan.
Trump’s advisors have signaled an openness to accepting a freeze in North Korea’s nuclear program – rather than full denuclearization – in return for sanctions relief. “But a freeze probably isn’t going to be enough for Trump,” says Chan. “If Kim could also agree to a moratorium on developing North Korea’s nuclear-powered submarines, military spy satellites, and long-range missiles, however, that could give enough of a win to Trump to sell to the American people.”
North Korea sends troops abroad and builds walls at home
It was barely 24 hours ago when we asked whether North Korea was really sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. The answer appears to be yes, according to South Korean and Ukrainian sources.
They say there are several dozen North Koreans already in Ukraine, helping to operate the launchers for North Korean ballistic missile systems that Pyongyang has supplied to Moscow.
Western governments have long accused North Korea of supplying artillery and other munitions to Russia, but the presence of troops in the theater of combat would mark a substantial deepening of the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership. North Korea and Russia have denied any of this is happening.
Meanwhile, closer to home, North Korea has for the first time acknowledged that it is building a border wall that will completely sever road and rail ties with the South. The project, which had previously been spotted by satellite images, comes as relations between the two Koreas have been steadily deteriorating.
Earlier this year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un for the first time openly rejected the goal of an eventual reconciliation or reunification between the two countries. Now he is backing up words with actual walls.North Korean troops in Ukraine? Really?
In yesterday’s edition, we noted awarning from South Korea’s defense minister that North Korea was “highly likely” to deploy troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. It is not yet clear how many troops would be committed or what their mission would be, but the move, if it happens, would make some sense. Vladimir Putin remains reluctant to order mass conscription since that might give a lot more Russians a reason to openly oppose his war. And anew report citing sources inside the Moscow mayor’s office says that “volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new [Russian army] recruits in Moscow.” The North Koreans might be getting access to some valuable Russian advanced technology in return for their soldiers.
But we have more questions. North Korean troops have long demonstrated excellent goose-stepping skills at large-scale parades, but none have ever experienced combat. How will they respond to the meat grinder battlefields of eastern Ukraine? Given the Russian military’s manylogistical failures over the past 32 months, how will it handle the coordination of North Korean troops? What happens when North Korean soldiers, facing horrible battlefield conditions, decide they’d rather defect and live in Kyiv?
These are questions Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will likely continue pondering before they approve anything beyond a symbolic deployment.