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President Joe Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a trilateral meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024.
Japan, US, South Korea unite against North Korea-Russia Pact
The next day, Japan’s foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, met his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, in Kyiv, to reaffirm Tokyo’s support for Ukraine and discuss further sanctions against Russia. Sybiha accused Pyongyang of feeding Moscow’s war machine in exchange for access to Russian military program, including missiles and nuclear weapons. Then on Sunday, Japan announced it will begin holding regular joint exercises with US troops in Australia starting in 2025, as those three countries strengthen their security ties amid growing threats from China.
What Russia and North Korea gain from defense treaty
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
North Korea ratified a major defense treaty with Russia. What do both sides hope to gain?
Well, the North Koreans really want mutual defense. They are helping the Russians out in their time of need, sending a whole bunch of troops, things that the North Koreans have in surplus and don't really value and the Russians can really use right now. And they would love to see Russian troops in North Korea. They'd love to see that appear as mutual defense and give the North Koreans a lot more leverage so they are not forced to be supplicants in Beijing, and they can also be more assertive versus South Korea, Japan, and others. This is a major escalation in this war and a big problem geopolitically.
The Russians, of course, are just looking for more troops, more ammunition, more ability to fight, and they are in a much, much stronger position to get terms that they want from the United States and from the Ukrainians. Especially now that the US has elected somebody that says he really, really wants to end the war. Putin will be like, "Okay, but here are the things that I need if you want me to end the war." Trump's incented to give him a lot more of those than almost anybody in NATO right now.
Japan's PM survived a rare parliamentary vote. How will he tackle the country's sluggish economy?
Well, he is saying that he's going to do a lot more stimulus, and so basically blow out the budget. Exactly, not where he has been historically. Japan's economy is pretty flat. Interest rates are close to zero, though they've been pushing them up a bit, historically surprising, recently. It's not like companies are all itching to get into Japan. Their demography is falling apart, and most people are pushing their production elsewhere, so including Japanese companies. So it's a real challenge, and Ishiba is going to be there maybe for a year. This is a very weak LDP coalition government.
What do I expect to come from COP29, the new climate summit happening in Baku?
Well, the Americans are attending with their knees cut off because Trump is going to be president in a couple months and he will pull the Americans out of the Paris Climate Accord once again. The trajectory on post-carbon investment and the prices coming down at scale for the Americans and for everyone in the world is already way too well-developed to pull back, and that's a good thing. But the US is going to be focused more on additional permitting and for oil and gas and production increases. Even beyond the record levels that they are right now under the Biden administration. They'll go further.
And so it's really, the Americans are going to be pretty marginalized at this summit, and the Chinese are driving the bus. They're producing a lot more coal, of course, but at the same time, they're also producing a hell of a lot more post-carbon renewables at global levels. In other words, China's doing at global scale what Texas is doing in the United States. And that is making them much more important as decision-makers.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea, in June, 2024.
Can North Koreans help Russia push Ukrainians out of Russia?
North Korea's state-controlled news agency KCNA announced on Tuesday that the country has ratified a strategic partnership agreement that allows Russia to use North Korean troops to help push Ukrainians from Russia’s Kursk region.
Ukrainian, US, NATO, and South Korean officials have warned in recent days that Russia has amassed a force of about 50,000 troops to try to evict Ukrainian forces from Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions – and they say the force includes 10,000-12,000 North Koreans.
The presence of North Korean soldiers could help Russia push forward with its offensive in Ukraine’s East. But beyond the ability of the North Koreans to draw Ukrainian fire away from Russian forces, it’s not clear how effective they will be on the battlefield. None of them has significant combat experience, and the Ukrainians they will be deployed to attack have been fighting in their country’s Donbas region for a decade.
In addition, throughout this war, Russian forces have faced command-and-control issues. It remains to be seen how Russian commanders can effectively coordinate real-time battlefield maneuvers with large numbers of non-Russian-speaking troops.
People wait in line to buy bread before Rafael's arrival in Havana, Cuba, on Nov. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Cuba battens down the hatches, Mexico’s judicial reform stands, Iran’s currency hits record low, Tsk tsk Pyongyang, Reckless raccoon
8: On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a proposal to narrow the scope of a controversial reform plan that would require all judges in the country to stand for election. Seven of the 11 justices voted to limit the election requirement to Supreme Court justices, buteight votes were needed to water down the reform.
703,000: On Wednesday, Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low as news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election hit markets. The rial traded at703,000 to the dollar before a slight recovery later in the day.
2/3: Ten of the 15 current UN Security Council members condemned North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations. Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom supported a US statement of condemnation. Russia, China, Algeria, Mozambique, and Guyana refused.
8 billion: At the Marine Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia airport, a raccoon fell through the ceiling at a departure gate earlier this week, causing chaos. This smaller terminal was not part of the infamously ramshackle airport’s recent$8 billion upgrade.
Ukrainian service members of the 43rd Hetman Taras Triasylo Separate Artillery Brigade fire towards Russian troops in a Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzer, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, at a position in Donetsk region, Ukraine October 26, 2024.
Ukrainians and North Koreans clash in Russia. Could NATO get involved?
Ukrainian officials said Monday their troops had fired upon North Koreans in the Kursk region, which Ukraine has partially occupied, in the first known contact between the two sides. Thus far, the action has been confined to Russian territory, where North Korea can point to its mutual defense pact with Russia for some legal cover (not that Pyongyang has admitted it deployed a single soldier yet), but what happens if the Korean People’s Army pushes into Ukraine proper?
It’s a possibility the US is eager to head off, according to Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer. “The United States sees North Korean combat troops entering Ukraine (as opposed to Kursk, on Russian territory) as a major escalation in the war — and has warned Russia that such a decision would risk NATO troops being sent into Ukraine,” Bremmer said after discussions with senior Biden administration officials. The National Security Administration and NATO did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
There are reasons for skepticism: Ukraine is not a NATO member and has expressed great frustration with its allies over how fear of escalation in Western capitals has clipped its military’s wings and resulted in preventable civilian and military deaths. How seriously Russian President Vladimir Putin takes it all depends heavily on the results of the US election tomorrow, as a second Trump administration would be much friendlier to Russian interests.
But Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says Moscow ought to be well aware of the risks. “As soon as North Korean troops cross into sovereign Ukrainian territory, it would make resolving the conflict far more complicated,” he says. “It would also engender a dramatic response from the West, and you could even see the Chinese come off their preferred position right on top of the fence because this would not be in Beijing's interests and would be a pretty flagrant violation of China’s five principles of peaceful coexistence.”
New recruits of the 126th Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attend a military exercise at a training ground, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in an undisclosed location in southern Ukraine October 29, 2024.
Russia unleashes assault, Ukraine seeks Allied permission to hit North Koreans
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Sunday that his troops were struggling to hold back “one of the most powerful Russian offensives” in the Donbas region. Meanwhile, North Korean troops are expected to go into combat near Kursk within days. President Volodymyr Zelensky has been strongly pressing allies to allow him to launch long-range missile strikes on the camps in Russia where Pyongyang’s troops are training, but Western governments have not budged.
The timing is no accident, given the US election on Tuesday, where both Moscow and Pyongyang have a lot on the line. Former President Donald Trump has said he will end the war “in one day” and halt support for Kyiv’s war effort, essentially forcing Ukraine to concede to Russia. Vice President Kamala Harris has promised to keep backing Kyiv, but it is not clear she would allow long range strikes into Russia.
A Trump presidency has similar upsides for North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un, given the two leaders’ bizarre affinity. After a brief rapprochement during Trump’s first term, Kim’s unwillingness to give up his nuclear weapons caused relations to break down between the US and the Hermit Kingdom. But Ri Il Gyu, a North Korean diplomat who defected in July, said in August that Pyongyang is aiming to restart talks with Trump. They’re reportedly aiming at sanctions relief and the repeal of the designation of North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism — without giving up their nukes — in exchange for minor concessions they think Trump could sell to his base.
Footage circulated online on Oct 18, 2024 shows North Korean troops training in Russia.
North Korean troops expected to engage Ukrainians within days as allies flounder
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says North Korean soldiers are expected to deploy in combat against Ukrainians in the coming days, while American Deputy UN Ambassador Robert Wood said 8,000 of Pyongyang’s soldiers are in the Kursk region, which Ukraine has partially occupied.
Blinken spoke after meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Cho Tae-yeol, and Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun alongside US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, as Washington and Seoul attempt to coordinate a response to Pyongyang’s provocations.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed deep disappointment in the thus-far anemic response from allies in an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS, saying Moscow and Pyongyang would press the envelope further. “If there is nothing — and I think that the reaction to this is nothing, it has been zero — then the number of North Korean troops on our border will be increased,” he said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol had expressed hope of sending weapons and advisers directly to Ukraine, but he’s hemmed in by constitutional restrictions and political realities he can’t overcome, as GZERO previously reported.
“South Korea and the West are grasping at straws to generate a significant response because there is widespread alarm and recognition that we have entered uncharted waters,” said Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan. “But North Korea will continue to get away with this because there aren’t a whole lot of good options.”
With the US election just days away, and the opposition that controls the legislature in Seoul deeply opposed to taking steps that could anger North Korea, we’re watching for more troops, more missiles, and deepening Pyongyang-Moscow ties before anyone in Seoul, Washington, or Beijing pushes back hard.
South Korean military soldiers parade during the 75th South Korea Armed Forces Day ceremony at Sejong-daero in Seoul, South Korea, September 26, 2023.
Recriminations fly in Seoul over a potential Ukraine military mission
South Korea’s opposition Democratic Party threatened to impeach the government’s defense minister if the ruling People Power Party went ahead with proposed plans to dispatch military monitors to Ukraine. President Yoon Suk Yeol would like military and intelligence officers to study North Korean battlefield tactics – Pyongyang has up to 10,000 soldiers in western Russia – as they engage Ukrainian troops, but the DP says such a deployment would violate South Korea’s constitution.
Yoon has to tread carefully: He doesn’t control the unicameral legislature, and Article 60 of the constitution clearly requires legislative approval for overseas troop deployments. Calling the troops monitors or observers won’t be enough to satisfy the opposition, and risking an impeachment of his cabinet officials is a bridge too far for Yoon, says Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan.
“Yoon is speaking loudly and carrying a toothpick,” Chan says, explaining that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin already saw this play from Yoon in June, when they met in Pyongyang. When South Korea threatened to start arming Ukraine directly but then did nothing, “they realized in Pyongyang and Moscow that this guy’s a paper tiger.”
Will there be consequences for Kim? It’s not looking likely. With South Korea divided domestically on a response, and the US unwilling to, for example, remove limits on Ukraine striking deep into Russia, both Pyongyang and Moscow seem to be able to act with some impunity. On Thursday, Kim sent another reminder of rising tensions on the Korean peninsula: North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile that stayed in flight for 86 minutes, a record for the Hermit Kingdom, off its east coast, according to South Korea and Japan.
We’re watching how far Kim can press his luck.