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Jonas Gahr Støre of the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet) during the Norwegian Parliamentary Election on September 13, 2021 in Oslo
What We’re Watching: Left wins Norway’s climate vote, everyone wants India’s jabs, junta denied Myanmar’s UN seat
Norway's climate election result: Most votes have now been counted from Norway's parliamentary election, and the left-leaning Labour party, headed by former FM Jonas Gahr Støre, has reaped 46 out of 168 seats up for grabs, ousting the conservative government led by PM Erna Solberg. Støre will now try to form a coalition government that's expected to include the agrarian Centre Party as well as the Socialist Party. The election was broadly seen as a referendum on climate change policy, given that oil accounts for more than 40 percent of Norway's exports and employs 7 percent of the entire workforce — though Norway itself has rolled out an ambitious green agenda at home. Støre says that he'll limit new oil explorations, but has ruled out getting rid of fossil fuels, saying that oil revenues could help fund the transition away from oil in the long run. Importantly, the Greens, the only political party that called for an end to all oil exploration, reaped only 4 percent of the vote, and is therefore unlikely to yield enough (or any) influence. Regardless, Støre may need to incorporate some smaller left-wing parties in his coalition that could force him to take a more forceful stance on climate change, like raising carbon taxes.
India pushed to vax the world: As the brutal COVID wave that devastated India in the spring now recedes, Delhi is coming under pressure to lift its vaccine export ban and deliver doses to low- and middle-income countries. The COVAX scheme was relying on India's Serum Institute to provide the bulk of its supply by administering 2 billion doses by the end of this year, but will now come up short — in part because when things got bad in India, the government stopped shipping pledged doses of the AstraZeneca shot saying that it needed to prioritize the domestic need. But now that India is recording one-tenth of the daily COVID cases it reported in early May, and at least 40 percent of its 1.4 billion people have gotten one jab, the World Health Organization and the US want India to resume exports. That may be a hard sell for the Biden administration, which enforced its own export ban earlier this year until it had enough supply for all Americans. Before the ban, India had sold or exported 66 million doses, but Biden is now pushing all countries to donate, not sell, any surplus supplies.
No UN seat for Myanmar's junta: The US and China cut a deal to block Myanmar's junta from taking the country's UN seat before the 76th UN General Assembly kicks off on Tuesday. But there's a catch: Myanmar's current UN envoy, appointed by the government the generals ousted in a coup last February, will have to tone down his fiery anti-junta rhetoric. The agreement is a slap in the face for Myanmar's military rulers, who were likely hoping China, one of their few friends, would push harder to give them the UN seat and the international legitimacy that comes with it. More broadly, it's a sign of what might be in store for the Taliban, who are also vying for international recognition and counting on China's support at international forums. However, the Taliban may have a slightly stronger claim because unlike Myanmar, the previous government has absconded and is not contesting their takeover. Still, having a Taliban representative on the Commission on the Status of Women, where Afghanistan won a seat in 2020, will surely be a non-starter for Western member states that have influence at the UN.
Will Norway pull the plug on itself?
What do you do when the thing that has helped to make you a rich, prosperous, and healthy democracy is also destroying the planet that you want to save? That's the choice before the roughly five million people of Norway as they head into a pivotal election on September 13.
No industrialized, competitive democracy is quite as dependent on fossil fuel exports as Norway. The discovery of oil and gas reserves in the North Sea half a century ago catapulted the country from a tidy but small fishing and timber economy to one of the most advanced and prosperous social welfare states on Earth.
Oil accounts for more than 40 percent of Norway's exports. The industry employs some 200,000 people directly, or about 7 percent of the workforce. And of course, Norway's famed, oil-fueled sovereign wealth fund is the world's largest, clocking in at more than a trillion-dollars. While it funds pensions -- rather than the budget, which is financed through typically high Nordic taxes -- the sovereign wealth fund is a nest egg (and crisis cushion) that most countries can only dream of.
At the same time, Norway is a green country that wants to be a leader in global efforts to combat climate change. How is this possible? For all the oil and gas that it ships abroad, Norway uses barely any of the stuff at home. The vast majority of Norway's electricity generation comes from hydropower, not hydrocarbons. Seven in ten new vehicles sold there last month were fully electric. Most of the capital, Oslo, is entirely and pleasantly car-free now.
But activists and upstart political parties are now drawing a closer connection between Norway's economic model and its environmental goals. And this contradiction — fossil-fuel dependency and green ambition — is now on the ballot.
The two establishment parties, the flagging center-right Conservatives who currently hold power, as well as the frontrunner center-left Labour opposition, stand behind the industry. They say that while they favor a gradual transition away from fossil-fuel production, the economic consequences of pulling the plug too quickly would be devastating.
They also point out that even if Norway stopped selling oil, it would have little impact on the climate unless global demand for the stuff goes down more broadly; that is, if we don't sell it to an oil-thirsty world, someone else will simply take our place.
But here's the thing: Labour is currently leading polls, but at just 23 percent it would have to form a coalition to govern. And two of its most natural possible partners, the leftwing Socialist Left Party (10 percent) or potentially the center-left Greens (5 percent), want to halt new exploration licenses. The Greens want to stop production altogether by 2035, and say they won't form a coalition with any party that opposes banning exploration immediately. "Our demand is absolute," party energy spokesman Ask Ibsen Lindal told GZERO Media.
In fact, the traditional parties in Norway are on their back foot generally these days. In midterm municipal elections in 2019, voters "gave the finger" to the establishment, ringing up big boosts not only for the Greens and parties on the hard left, but also to the agrarian Center Party and a pro-motorist group called PNB, which opposes environmental and road taxes.
All of this means that there could be a fragmented and potentially inconclusive election outcome. And the stakes couldn't be higher. Half a century ago Norway pulled off one of the most radical, rapid, and successful economic transformations in modern history. But today climate change is forcing the country to reckon with the idea of giving a lot of that up. Can Norway's fractious politics meet the urgency of the moment?- Norway's school phone ban aims to reclaim "stolen focus", says PM Jonas Støre - GZERO Media ›
- Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power - GZERO Media ›
- Norway's PM Jonas Støre says his country can power Europe - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's energy future: Perspective from Norway's PM Jonas Støre - GZERO Media ›