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Has China lost patience with Venezuela's Maduro regime?
China once poured untold billions into Venezuela’s oil industry, but opposition leader María Corina Machado says that era is over. “China was producing around 70,000 barrels a day in Venezuela in 2016. Today, that's less than 40,000,” she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. The reason? “China does not want to deal with a profoundly corrupt, inept tyranny such as Maduro. They know him very well.” She argues that fears of China stepping in to rescue Maduro are misplaced; Beijing has already learned its lesson.
For investors, Venezuela is a dead zone. “Would you lend to a country that ranks literally last in the world for rule of law?” Machado asks, citing the World Justice Project’s assessment of 142 nations. Despite holding the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s economy remains in ruins because, as she puts it, "you cannot develop resources under communism, crime, and dictatorship." But she insists that Venezuela is ready for change: “We know what we have to do in the first 100 days—guarantee security, restore basic services, and open markets.” The country, she says, is waiting for its chance to rebuild.
Watch full episode: Can Venezuela's opposition leader unseat Nicolás Maduro?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
An aerial view of the Pasadena Refining System, Inc., in Pasadena, Texas, from 2017.
Why does the US Import oil despite producing enough for its needs?
The United States is one of the world’s largest oil producers, producing enough crude oil for domestic consumption and exporting millions of barrels daily. In 2023, it exported just over 10 million barrels per day, or b/d, of petroleum to 173 countries and three US territories.
Yet, the US also imports roughly 8 million b/d, mostly heavy crude,60% of which comes from Canada, up from 33% in 2013. US oil refining capacity stood at 18.4 million barrels per day (b/d) as of Jan. 1, 2024. This may seem counterintuitive, but there are several reasons why the US still relies on imports.
Oil quality differences. Crude oil comes in different grades, generally categorized by density (light vs. heavy) and sulfur content (sweet vs. sour). The US primarily produces light, sweet crude, ideal for gasoline. But many US refineries, especially those along the Gulf Coast, are geared up to process sour, heavy crude – the kind produced in countries like Canada and Venezuela. Heavy crude oil is cheaper, and its chemical composition allows it to be used in a greater variety of products, such as diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals.
Geographic logistics and costs. US oil fields are concentrated in Texas and North Dakota, making it cost-effective for other regions to import oil from Canada, whose pipeline infrastructure can directly supply US refineries in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. Canada also supplies oil by rail, as its supply exceeds pipeline capacity. Its oil is also sold at a discount, as high as $20 a barrel in the last two years, due to its limited pipeline infrastructure to coastal ports that makes the US its chief customer, as well as competition from increased production of Mexican crude that has saturated the market.
Economics and trade. US producers sell their light crude to international markets, where they can fetch higher prices than domestically. From 1975 to 2015, it was illegal for the US to export crude oil. President Barack Obama lifted the ban as other sources of oil including hydraulic fracking became available, increasing domestic supply. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts that US crude oil production will continue to rise, reaching an average of 13.5 million b/d in 2025, up from a record 13.2 million b/d in 2024.
Energy security strategy. The US has long maintained a policy of diversifying oil sources to ensure energy security, particularly since the 1973 oil embargo by OPEC countries during the Arab-Israeli war, preferring imports from more stable trading partners like Canada. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency on Monday, however, is designed to boost US oil and gas production by expediting drilling permits and removing restrictions on exploration, including offshore and in Alaska. This might make it less necessary to import Canadian oil – an issue of concern to Alberta, whose economy relies heavily on exports to the US. Tariffs on Canadian oil would also make the product more expensive and encourage greater production of US oil, which could also reduce reliance on Canada in the long term.