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A man looks at belongings inside a damaged house during clashes between the RSF and the army in Khartoum.
Why Sudan’s crisis is a regional affair
Fighting rages on in Sudan, with the two dueling armies having already broken the 24-hour ceasefire that was declared on Tuesday. Few have high hopes of a cessation of hostilities in the North African country anytime soon.
But this conflict isn’t just about Sudan. Indeed, a host of regional heavyweights with their own strategic interests in Sudan – and the Horn of Africa more broadly – have helped fuel the current political crisis and are closely watching events unfold.
Recap: Who is fighting whom? On one side is Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since 2021. That was when the military took over in a violent coup, overthrowing a joint civilian-military government. On the other side is Burhan’s former ally and junta deputy Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, who is head of the Rapid Support Forces, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
Both men once had close ties to former despot Omar al-Bashir – who ruled the country with an iron fist until 2019 – and helped oust him in a military coup amid a popular uprising.
The two generals have since fallen out and most recently clashed over the planned integration of the RSF into Sudan’s military. This triggered the current violence, but at the heart of the crisis is their personal rivalry over who will ultimately control the armed forces – and the country.
But many other states also have a stake in what goes down in Sudan.
Diplomatic tug-of-war. For decades, al-Bashir enjoyed a close relationship with Iran, but that started to change in 2011, when the energy-rich south – accounting for 80% of Sudan’s oil – gained independence from Khartoum.
Seeking new economic opportunities, al-Bashir began mending ties with rich Gulf states, particularly the UAE but also Saudi Arabia.
Consider that by 2015, Sudan had sent thousands of troops to support the Saudi-UAE coalition in Yemen in exchange for wads of cash and subsidies on imports. Locked in a bitter rivalry with Iran, the Gulf states tried – and succeeded – in bringing Sudan into their sphere of influence, resulting in al-Bashir severing ties with Tehran completely.
Meanwhile, under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt was keen to drive a wedge between the al-Bashir regime and the Muslim Brotherhood, el-Sisi’s main ideological rival. After the Sudanese autocrat was ousted, Cairo took advantage of Ankara's limited sway with the Sudanese military to try and limit Turkey’s influence in the country, with some success.
Cairo has not officially taken sides but has joined forces with Burhan to push back against Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam project, which they say will cut into their share of water in the Nile.
Sudan’s economic value. The gold trade has long been crucial to Sudan’s economy. Prior to al-Bashir’s ouster, gold accounted for 40% of the country’s exports. In recent years, Hemedti, a former camel herder, has used his growing influence to build a family mining and trading company, exporting illicit gold to Dubai in exchange for hard currency. A report from the Central Bank of Sudan showed that the UAE purchased all of Sudan’s gold exports in the first half of 2022, worth a total $1.3 billion.
Competition for influence in the Red Sea. Enter Russia, which has long been vying for access to Sudan’s strategic Red Sea port. Moscow is reportedly in talks to build a naval base – creating a passageway to the Indian Ocean – in exchange for sending Khartoum more weapons and military equipment. Indeed, this ties into Moscow’s broader strategy of trying to increase its foothold across the resource-rich Sahel region.
The US’ limited leverage. While the US gives Sudan a hefty sum of direct government assistance, Washington’s sway is undercut by the fact that the RSF has an independent revenue stream from its illicit trade scheme, effectively functioning as a state within a state.
And while US sanctions on the Sudanese military since the coup might hurt ordinary civilians (in 2021, Washington withheld $700 million in aid), the military maintains a tight grip over the entire economic system and business community. It has plundered state resources, dubbed by some analysts as an entrenched “deep state,” for decades.
Looking ahead. The Horn of Africa is already one of the world’s most volatile regions. Now, there’s growing concern that the turmoil in Sudan could spill over into neighboring countries, like Chad and Eritrea, creating a full-blown regional crisis.What We're Watching: Taliban ditch poppies, another Chinese COVID mishap, Darfur war crimes tribunal
Taliban ban poppy cultivation
Fulfilling a long-held promise, the Taliban have banned the cultivation of poppies, the main ingredient used in heroin and other opiates. “If anyone violates the decree, the crop will be destroyed immediately, and the violator will be treated according to Shariah law,” the group said. Afghanistan is by far the largest producer of opium, accounting for 85% of all production globally. (After the Taliban took control last year, opium production increased in the country by 8%.) Indeed, the move comes as the Taliban are vying to gain recognition from the international community as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan and unlock millions of dollars worth of foreign reserves currently held in US banks. However, as cash runs dry from the opium trade, regular Afghan farmers who depend on the crops for their livelihood will feel the economic pain. Observers are warning of an impending calamity in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, which is already reeling from economic collapse with reports of Afghans being forced to sell their children and organs to survive.
Another China COVID controversy
The numbers remain small by US and European standards, but China has faced record high numbers of COVID infections in recent days, and emergency measures to contain an outbreak of a subtype of the omicron variant in Shanghai has persuaded the government to take actions considered drastic even in China. Thousands of healthcare workers from neighboring provinces and about 2,000 military health personnel were dispatched to the city to help perform COVID tests on all of Shanghai’s 26 million people. State officials say that process wrapped up on Monday, but a two-phase lockdown continues as the scale of the outbreak is assessed. In the meantime, the plan has generated controversy, including across Chinese social media: A rule that anyone testing positive must be isolated from those who test negative has reportedly forced the physical separation in some cases of young children, even babies, from their parents.
Darfur war crimes tribunal kicks off
Nearly two decades after the conflict in Darfur broke out, the first war crimes tribunal kicks off this week in the International Criminal Court at the Hague. Ali Muhammad Abd-al-Rahman, former military commander of the Khartoum-backed Janjaweed militia, could spend the rest of his life behind bars if convicted on a range of war crimes, including murder, rape, and torture. Beginning in 2003, mostly non-Arab rebel groups that felt marginalized by the government of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir took up arms against Khartoum. Al-Bashir and his allies responded with a brutal crackdown on Sudan’s Western Darfur region that led to 300,000 deaths and displaced 1.6 million Sudanese. It has since been deemed a genocide by the United States. Al-Bashir, who was ousted in a popular uprising in 2019, is also wanted by the Hague but remains in custody in Khartoum. While this case is boosting hopes for more accountability for war crimes committed across sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades, it comes amid dashed hopes for democracy in Sudan after a joint civilian-military government was overthrown in a coup last October by former allies of al-Bashir.
Protesters carry a banner and national flags as they march against the Sudanese military's recent seizure of power and ousting of the civilian government, in the streets of the capital Khartoum, Sudan October 30, 2021.
What We're Watching: More trouble in post-coup Sudan
Sudan on the brink. Two weeks after a military coup in Sudan, the country's security situation continues to deteriorate. On Sunday, soldiers responded to pro-democracy protests in Khartoum by tear-gassing and arresting more than 100 teachers who refuse to return to work until the transitional civilian-military government is restored. (The intervention drew comparisons to the harsh crackdown against protesters that eventually led to the ousting of longtime despot Omar al-Bashir in 2019.) Meanwhile, civilian PM Abdalla Hamdok remains under house arrest, and the internet is still shut down. Arab League mediators have arrived in the capital to try to mediate between junta leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and the pro-civilian forces, but Burhan refuses to even call the power grab a coup. The country's largest union, which played a pivotal role in the 2019 protest movement, has called a two-day national strike — the opening salvo of a campaign of civil disobedience to force the military back to the negotiating table. Since the generals show no signs of backing down, the odds of more bloodshed are growing by the day.
The ins and outs of Sudan's coup
"The people are stronger," pro-democracy demonstrators chanted as news broke that the Sudanese military had staged a coup Monday, overthrowing the joint civilian-military government and dashing hopes of democracy in the war-torn country.
The backstory. In 2019, Omar al-Bashir – a despot who ruled Sudan with an iron fist for 30 years – was deposed after a months-long popular uprising.
Al-Bashir was a bad guy: he cozied up to terrorists like Osama bin Laden and dropped barrel bombs on his own people. He also embezzled truckloads of money from oil production while millions of Sudanese went hungry, and oversaw a genocide in the Darfur region that left 300,000 people dead and displaced 1.6 million.
When some of al-Bashir's allies flipped in 2019, a bloody power struggle ensued (hundreds of pro-democracy demonstrators were killed) before a transitional government – made up of six civilians and five military personnel – was appointed for a three-year transition period, at which time democratic elections were to be held. Since then, the very tenuous government has remained mostly intact despite ongoing violence and ethnic clashes.
However, things got particularly heated in recent weeks, as a November 17 deadline loomed for the civilian wing to take control of the government's decision-making body. (Per the power-sharing agreement, the military's representatives had mostly been calling the shots.)
Clashes broke out on the streets between pro-democracy activists and military loyalists, before the government's military wing took charge this week, declaring a state of emergency and seizing power. Civilian leaders and ministers – including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdak, an economist who previously worked at the UN – have been arrested.
What does this mean for Sudan? At a basic level, it makes the prospect of democracy more illusory. The likelihood of fresh elections going ahead next year as planned is slim given that the military personnel who staged the coup are former allies of al-Bashir who built a career on quashing dissent.
What's more, there was also hope that when the civilian wing took over, al-Bashir would be handed over to the International Criminal Court at The Hague to face charges over his government's brutality in Darfur (2003-2009). But because al-Bashir's extradition and testimony would expose crimes committed by some of the generals, that's likely to be a moot point, too – at least for now.
Moreover, if the takeover stands, it'll be a massive economic blow for Sudan, which has been trying to revive economic ties with the international community after years of sanctions and isolation. In late 2020, the US removed Sudan from its state sponsors of terrorism list, restoring Khartoum's access to global financial markets and international aid. This paved the way for crucial debt relief from institutions like the IMF, so the transitional military-civilian government in Khartoum could access the cheap international credit it needs to address the country's deep economic crisis. This is all at stake now.
Who cares what's happening in Sudan? Well, several countries are surely keeping a close eye on unfolding events.
Egypt has been trying to improve cross-border relations with Sudan in recent years, after the two countries had long been locked in a border dispute over access to the mineral-rich Halayeb triangle. More recently, Cairo and Khartoum have joined forces against Ethiopia amid a messy dispute over water access in the Nile. Though Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is no democracy warrior, he is hardly interested in seeing more instability and chaos on Egypt's southern border.
Meanwhile, Turkey – which backs Ethiopia in the water dispute – has been pushing to play a larger political and economic role in Africa, and to build a port off Sudan's Red Sea coast that would be a hub for Muslim pilgrims crossing the Red Sea to Mecca.
Additionally, Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have capitalized on the ousting of al-Bashir to bring Sudan under their sphere of influence. In exchange for certain concessions (like tempering ties with the Gulf states' nemeses in Qatar and Iran), the Saudis and Emiratis have lushed Khartoum with cash. (Though the Saudis have backed off a bit, the Emirates have continued to act as a key powerbroker in Sudan.)
What happens now? The signs are ominous: Khartoum's airport is closed, and the internet has been shut down. Meanwhile, coup leader Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan said that elections could take place in July 2023, but trust is low and fears are high of a return to civil war.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson (left) meets US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office of the White House, Washington DC, during his visit to the United States for the United Nations General Assembly. Picture date: Tuesday September 21, 2021.
What We’re Watching: UK wants to be North American, Sudanese foil coup, Haitian refugee crisis grows
Can the UK join a North American trade deal? The acronym for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement was never all that elegant, but now London wants to throw two more letters into that soup. That's right, the UK wants to join USMCA, the trade pact brokered by the Trump administration in 2020 as an update to the 1990s-era NAFTA agreement. London had hoped that Brexit would free it up to ink a bilateral free trade deal with the US, but as those talks have stalled in recent months, PM Boris Johnson now wants to plug his country into the broader three-party deal. The fact that the UK already has deals with Canada and Mexico should help, in principle. But it would doubtless be a complex negotiation. And there's at least one huge hurdle: US officials are reportedly unaware of any mechanism at all for bringing aboard additional countries.
Haitian migrant crisis at US border: In recent days more than 15,000 Haitians — most of whom come from South America, where they've lived since fleeing post-quake Haiti in 2010 — have journeyed to the US southern border in hopes of gaining asylum. No such luck. The Biden administration is deporting them as fast as it can, and US border patrol officers have even sent agents on horseback to capture them. Earlier this week, a horrific image of a border patrol horseman using what looks like a whip against a Haitian refugee went viral. While the White House has given protected status to Haitians already in the US, that does not apply to new arrivals. And although Biden is seeking to raise the cap of refugees accepted by the US overall, he has left in place the Trump administration's Title 42 provision, which permits the US to deport asylum seekers, without a hearing, on public health grounds. Human rights groups say Title 42 is discriminatory, but Biden may be keeping an eye on the polls here: 80 percent of Americans think of immigration as a "serious problem," and 55 percent are against Biden undoing some of the most stringent Trump-era immigration policies.
Sudan thwarts coup: Sudan's civilian PM Abdalla Hamdok says the military has foiled a coup attempt by "forces of darkness" linked to Omar al-Bashir, the deposed former dictator. Details are sketchy, but at least 21 military officers and civilians have been arrested for their role in the failed coup, considered the most serious of multiple previous attempts. The possibility of a military takeover by al-Bashir loyalists has haunted the country since the longtime autocrat — now pending trial in The Hague — was ousted in 2019, giving way to a shaky democratic transition. Although the military has mostly stayed loyal to the the transitional civilian-military government that has run the country for more than two years, many disgruntled officers remain in their jobs, and could become a bigger problem in November, when power is supposed to rotate from the military side of the transitional government to the civilian side headed by Hamdok.
What We're Watching: A peace deal in Sudan, India-China border flare-up, EU threatens Ankara
Sudan, rebels shake hands: Sudan's transitional government and an alliance of rebel groups signed a peace agreement on Monday that aims to stabilize the Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions after almost two decades of conflict. The deal covers several key issues, including the integration of rebel fighters into the national army and the return of refugees who fled the conflict since 2003. Indeed, it's the first major step towards peace in conflict-ridden Sudan since the ouster of former strongman president Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. The joint military-civilian cabinet in Khartoum now plans to hand over Bashir to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, where he will face charges of genocide and crimes against humanity over his role in the Darfur war during which 300,000 were killed and more than 2 million were displaced. However, at least two rebel factions refused to join the latest peace agreement, highlighting the fragility of the nascent deal.
India-China border flares up: A standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in the disputed Himalayan border area this week prompted both sides to amass thousands of additional troops as well as advanced weaponry to survey the contested Line of Actual Control. This latest confrontation — which reportedly amounted to little more than a screaming match — comes after Indo-China tensions peaked in June, when skirmishes in Ladakh, a disputed region in Indian-administered Kashmir, resulted in dozens of deaths on both sides (iron bars and fists were the weapons of choice). These clashes represented the deadliest flare up in decades between the two regional powers, who have long been at loggerheads in the remote borderlands as well as elsewhere in South Asia. Indeed, this latest escalation suggests that diplomatic efforts to cool tensions might not be working, and that under the nationalistic leadership of China's Xi Jinping and India's Narendra Modi, the border area will likely remain a tinderbox for years to come.
EU wades into Greece-Turkey sea row: The European Union is mulling sanctions against Turkey over Ankara's plans to drill for oil and gas in parts of the Eastern Mediterranean claimed by Greece, an EU member state. Although details remain murky, Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, said that if dialogue fails, the sanctions may target Turkey's ability to use EU ports and equipment. While Turkey's foreign minister responded by insisting that Ankara favors a negotiated solution, including sharing hydrocarbon resources from the disputed area, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — a hardline nationalist who has threatened Greece with military action — has yet to weigh in publicly. Greeks and Turks have been bickering about this issue for months, and last week both sides held separate naval drills in the contested region off Cyprus despite a German-led diplomatic effort to persuade them to back down.