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Trump, Trudeau, and the art of the deal
Donald Trump, whatever else you might say about him, has a sense of humor.
“It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada,” he posted at midnight on Monday. “I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!”
Trudeau, on the other hand, is a straight man.
“I think there’s a number of folks in different countries, and I won’t point out any particular one, where folks are going to be wondering about the choice they maybe made in elections,” he said earnestly in Halifax on Monday. “Let’s not be that kind of country in Canada … Let’s not fall into an easy trap of voting for change for the worse.”
Trudeau followed that with a lament Tuesday about Kamala Harris’ defeat, which led to a nasty attack by Trump supporter Elon Musk, who predicted Trudeau — whom he called a “tool” — would soon be gone.
The Trump team has decided to make Trudeau a target for pro-wrestling-style trash talk, and Trudeau is ill-equipped to respond in kind because Canadians are rattled by Trump’s threats and have little confidence in their unpopular prime minister. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, not Trudeau, threatened to cut off energy exports to the US after Trudeau met with Canadian provincial leaders on Wednesday.
Trump has all the cards
Trudeau said it would be “a little more challenging” to deal with Trump this time than last, when they together negotiated a trade agreement, but that is an understatement.
Eight years ago, when Trump took office for the first time, Trudeau had an approval rating of 50%, the Conservative opposition was in disarray, provincial leaders were mostly cooperative, and as few as 15% of Canadians approved of Trump.
As Trump gets ready to take office again, 26% of Canadians approve of him, compared with only 23% who approve of Trudeau. Yes, you read that right: In Canada, Trump is more popular than Trudeau.
In 2016, Trudeau was seen as glamorous. Now, he is the target of derision from conservatives in Canada, the United States, and around the world, a poster boy for the kind of woke liberalism that is in retreat everywhere.
This time, Trump holds all the cards, and Trudeau is in no position to bluff.
When Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian (and Mexican) imports if Canada doesn’t stop migrants and drugs from crossing the border, Canadian Conservatives urged the prime minister to take action immediately, proposed kicking Mexico out of the long-standing Three Amigos trade pact — do whatever he can, immediately — to prevent Trump from wrecking the Canadian economy.
What Trump wants
This is how Trump operates, says Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
“Part of his negotiating tactic is to open with a threat, underneath which comes a request,” Sands says. “And with the first term it was, ‘I’m going to tear up NAFTA.’ We all ran in circles for a while, and then it became, ‘Well, unless Canada and Mexico come to the table and agree to negotiate to fix it.’ And in the end, that was the most important part of the message.”
Trump is a New York property developer, long accustomed to theatrical public negotiations.
“My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward,” Trump (or his ghostwriter) wrote in his 1987 book, “The Art of the Deal.” “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want.”
The problem for Canadians is that it is not yet clear what Trump wants, except to dunk on Trudeau. He has said that he wants Canada to do more to stop migrants and fentanyl crossing into the United States, but the scale of the problem at the northern border is a tiny fraction of the problem facing the southern border.
Telegraphing chaos
Tyler Meredith, who was the lead economic adviser to Trudeau until last year, thinks Trump is trying to establish Canada as a problem because the northern border will be the scene of chaotic events when Trump starts deporting migrants.
“I think Canada has been pulled into that in part because he’s focused on the problem vis-à-visMexico, but he’s also thinking about it in the Canadian context because he knows that some of those people that may be deported, or who will self-deport as asylum claimants, are going to end up in Canada,” he says. “So he’s kind of saying, ‘Look, be ready, because I’m about to do this, and I don’t want to be the one blamed for it, because I’ve given you sufficient warning.’”
Meredith thinks a tighter border may not be what Trump really wants — increased defense spending and changes to the USMCA trade agreement are likely what he will get around to eventually.
That could be painful for Canada. Trump’s appointments signal anything but business as usual. Robert Lighthizer, who provided a steady hand as Trump’s trade representative last time, is out. Peter Navarro, who in 2018 said “there’s a special place in hell” for Trudeau, is in.
The Canadians will be looking to start serious talks with calm officials, like Lighthizer, but may instead find themselves dealing with more volatile people, like Navarro, who will take their cues from the trash-talking commander in chief.
Trudeau knows that his only chance of political survival hinges on managing this file properly, and it’s ultimately in Trump’s political interest to keep the trucks moving across the border, but Trump has the opportunity and, seemingly, the desire to keep bullying Trudeau until they work out a deal.
Opinion: The world prepares its go bags
The abundance of volatility in the global system since at least the start of the pandemic has meant that we should expect more geopolitical risk rather than less. Now, in addition to multiple ongoing conflicts, a year of electoral instability, and pandemic hangovers, the return of Donald Trump as the US president injects further unpredictability into this landscape.
Already since his reelection, an unusual set of waves have crested. In South Korea – a key US ally – the declaration of martial law last week stunned the domestic and international audience. After widespread protests broke out, President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a quick (but not immediate) retraction with more fallout yet to come. Elsewhere, in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote after parliamentary budget talks stalled. The measure reveals the fractures and radicalized forces that continue to plague one of Europe’s leading economies. And in Syria, Islamist militants turned Aleppo and Damascus into a hot zone once again – raising tensions in an already active neighborhood – before spectacularly overthrowing Bashar Assad’s government on Saturday.
Trump is, of course, not responsible for any of these developments. But the world is on edge. His posts in recent weeks on Truth Social have done little to assuage the anxieties and instead serve as kerosene to various burning fires. Trump roiled markets in late November when he announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The market remarkably found the news surprising despite Trump’s avowal throughout his 2024 election campaign that he would again rely on the tariff lever as president.
More recently, Trump posted to warn that if the hostages held by Hamas are not released before his inauguration there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” Trump’s commitment to “hit harder” those responsible at a historic level strikes a distinctly different tone than the one regional actors have become accustomed to with Joe Biden’s administration.
In response to the preexisting condition of volatility and the forthcoming infusion of Trumpredictability, the world is preparing “go bags” for the year(s) ahead. For both global political leaders and private sector firms, this preparation involves kicking the tires on current strategy, stress testing supply chains and sourcing, evaluating budget plans, and checking in with the man himself.
After Trump’s tariff threats, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew immediately to Mar-a-Lago to assess the damage. Inremarks afterward, Trudeau said it was an “excellent conversation” and that he “look[ed] forward to the work we can do together, again.” In his own posts, Trump said the two had discussed many important topics that would require the US and Canada to work together, including trade, illegal drugs, and energy. In the days that followed, Trump posted a photo of himself staring out at snow-capped mountains with the Canadian flag at his side – after jokingly saying the country could become America’s 51st state. It was a reminder to Trudeau that one dinner will not resolve everything.
European leaders, meanwhile, are debating a lot more defensive spending for the journey ahead. At early December meetings of NATO foreign ministers, Secretary-General Mark Rutte thanked Trump for getting NATO territory allies to the 2% defensive spend target, calling it the “Trump push.” Rutte went on to say that – and not just because of Trump – he now believes strongly the 2% is not enough for long-term deterrence. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock similarly called on NATO to make big investments in European security beyond the standard 2% defensive target.
In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky has seemingly demonstrated a new willingness to consider negotiations as a Trump return looms. After repeatedly vowing to continue the fight, Zelensky indicated this week he would be open to Western troops deploying in Ukraine as a security guarantee and step toward NATO membership to halt the war with Russia. The shift comes as polls suggest that Ukrainians are increasingly inclined toward a negotiated solution, but also after months of Trump campaign pledges to swiftly drive settlement and end the war. With Assad’s toppling in Syria, having long been propped up by Russia, Putin will be recalculating his own ambitions in Ukraine in real time in the coming weeks.
Unsurprisingly, Trump is not immune to the effect he is having on global behavior. He launched a site to track the “Promises Kept,” which tallies “securing our border,” “working towards international peace,” and “propelling economic growth” among his pre-inauguration successes.
The world at the close of 2024 stands on the precipice, awaiting the impact that another Trump presidency will bring. Trump 2.0 will be all-encompassing. His administration will pursue policies that reshape the global economy and international trade patterns. It will target ongoing fault lines and new challengers. And there will be unpredictability. Global leaders of all stripes are counting on being kept on their toes. Some across Europe have even begun ramping up crisis capabilities for citizens with initiatives advising on stockpiling and bunker building. They have six weeks to pack their bags.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.