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Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra attends a press conference at the Pheu Thai party headquarters after the royal endorsement ceremony.
New Thai PM’s party ejects military-backed coalition partners
The Pheu Thai party announced Monday that it would eject the military-backed Palang Pracharat party from its incoming government.
The move comes after Palang Pracharat’s leader Prawit Wongsuwon, a former army chief with powerful royal connections, refused to attend the vote to approve new Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. As a result, Pheu Thai will lose 40 Palang Pracharat representatives, but its leaders say they expect to maintain a majority in Parliament.
Politics are personal in Thailand: Prawit participated in the 2006 coup against Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and the 2014 coup against her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. The billionaire Shinawatra clan and its Pheu Thai party formed an alliance of necessity last year with the military to prevent the upstart reformist Move Forward party from taking power, despite winning the most votes in the 2023 election. Pheu Thai took the helm last August, and Thaksin returned from exile and was pardoned by King Vajiralongkorn.
It’s not a total schism: Pheu Thai will still work with the United Thai Nation party, also heavily linked to the military and monarchy, and Paetongtarn has consistently opposed repealing laws against criticizing the king (but there is plenty to criticize).
Pheu Thai needs middle-class Thai voters. The military-monarchy connection is deeply rooted in Thailand, and voters have generally tolerated military intervention in the name of national security. There’s no sign of a looming coup — but the Shinawatras are 0 for 2 when it comes to peaceful transitions out of power.Thailand's former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Not now, Thaksin!
We recently predicted that the shadow of self-exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra would loom large over the May 14 Thai election. Now the stakes just got a lot higher.
On Tuesday, Thaksin announced that he plans to return before his 74th birthday in July, almost 15 years after he skipped town when he was about to go on trial for corruption. Thaksin, ousted in a 2006 coup, was ultimately convicted in absentia of several charges that add up to over a decade in prison.
Although Thaksin says he just wants to raise his grandkids and won't be a burden to his daughter, Paetongtarn, currently leading the polls for her dad's old job, it's hard to imagine how he won't.
Thaksin has dominated Thai politics for a generation, and the prospect of his return might boost voter turnout for Paetongtarn. But he’s also a polarizing figure — despised by the generals who now run the country under a civilian government (and who deposed his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014).
Also, Thaksin needs a royal pardon to avoid arrest. Don't count on it: In 2019, King Vajiralongkorn blocked his own sister, Princess Ubolratana, from running for premier … under Thaksin's party.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra and the Pheu Thai party's prime ministerial candidate, at a campaign event in Bangkok.
Thaksin’s shadow looms large over upcoming Thai election
Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra remains a powerful force in Thai politics 17 years after the military ousted the billionaire businessman from office and drove him out of the country. His party, Pheu Thai (or its predecessors), has won the largest number of seats in every election since 2001 with its populist appeals to the rural poor. But it has been twice ousted from power via military coups. In addition to Thaksin (Thais go by their given name), his sister Yingluck suffered a similar fate, in 2014.
Ahead of the May 14 elections for the House of Representatives, Pheu Thai is getting a fresh boost from the next generation: Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn, 36, has emerged as an energetic campaigner and one of the main contenders for prime minister. Yet Pheu Thai faces a battle obtaining the nation’s top job given the conservative establishment’s dominance of the political system.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to explain why.
Who are the main candidates and parties running on the establishment side?
United Thai Nation, led by 2014 coup-leader-turned-PM Prayut Chan-o-cha, and Palang Pracharat Party, led by Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan (both military-linked parties), as well as the Democrat Party are the main parties of the conservative establishment – wealthy Thais, the military, and ardent supporters of the monarchy. The Bhumjaithai Party also leans conservative and is in the current ruling coalition, but it is more ideologically flexible than the others. Fragmentation within the establishment will be an important watchpoint for post-election government formation talks.
What about the opposition?
Pheu Thai has nominated three candidates (the maximum allowed per party) for prime minister; the two key ones are Paetongtarn and Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon. Move Forward — the successor to Future Forward, which was dissolved in 2020 — is the other main opposition party. Its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, is the party’s sole nominee for prime minister. While Pheu Thai and Move Forward share a desire to reduce the military’s influence in politics, they otherwise have little in common. Pheu Thai’s heartland is the populous, mostly rural and poor north and northeast regions, whereas Move Forward’s strongest support is among young, middle-class urban voters, many of whom are not fond of Thaksin or his daughter, a political novice. Moreover, Move Forward has dared to discuss the role of the country’s monarchy, a sensitive issue, though it has backed away somewhat from this recently. But its stance has helped it to win the support of student protesters who took to the streets in 2020-2021, calling for democratic reforms and checks on the monarchy’s power.
Who's leading the polls?
Pheu Thai is far ahead. It is highly likely that it picks up the most House seats, by a comfortable margin, but polling is not accurate enough to give us a reliable steer on the likely scale of its victory. Move Forward is second in most polls and appears to be gaining ground.
It looks like the Thaksin-backed party will surely win but won't be able to govern. Why is that?
The country’s 2017 constitution gave the junta the right to appoint 250 senators, who remain in office until 2024 and will vote together with the 500 members of the House to choose the next prime minister. This gives conservative parties an in-built advantage. So, the House elections will not directly determine who leads the next government, though the results will shape coalition negotiations.
The vote for prime minister will take place after the junta-appointed Election Commission has confirmed at least 95% of the House results — it has up to 60 days to do so. There is no time limit on the selection of the prime minister; in 2019, it took about two months from polling day until a new officeholder was confirmed.
What would need to happen for Paetongtarn to become PM? Would the army allow it? Why is Thaksin's daughter so popular?
To get the 376 votes required to secure the premiership, Pheu Thai would need to either assemble a coalition of that many seats in the House or somehow obtain the backing of at least a portion of the senators. On the latter option, it is thought possible that Pheu Thai could join forces with Prawit’s Palang Pracharat Party, even though the two have been fierce opponents. Prayut, on the other hand, is much less likely to consider working with Pheu Thai.
As a member of the Shinawatra clan, Paetongtarn is both wildly popular with Pheu Thai’s supporters and contentious for conservatives. Promises of expensive giveaways such as a 10,000 baht ($290) one-off payment for every Thai citizen 16 years old and above have also surely helped. Pheu Thai could put forward Srettha for the premiership instead, in the hope the well-known businessman is more palatable to senators.
A Pheu Thai-led government would likely face legal and constitutional pressure, and potentially another coup.
Is there any chance her dad will be allowed to return to Thailand?
This is conceivable if there is a Pheu Thai government, though it would likely trigger protests by pro-establishment supporters and possibly raise the odds of a coup.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra
Can Thaksin rule again in Thailand?
Get ready for some major political trouble later this year in the Land of Smiles.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of deposed former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra, is mulling a run for her dad’s old job. Over the weekend, Paetongtarn — Thais go by their given name — got a lot of buzz at the assembly of Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party, calling for a landslide victory in a snap election expected to be called in November.
That would be no surprise, given that Thaksin-backed parties have won every national election in Thailand since 2001. The 35-year-old Paetongtarn, with zero political experience of her own, would be a vessel for her billionaire dad, the most influential name in Thai politics for a generation.
With his daughter as a proxy, Thaksin likely wants two things: to return to politics — pulling the strings in the background — and to return home from self-imposed exile.
Almost 16 years after being overthrown, Thaksin remains popular with a majority of Thai voters, especially the rural poor in the northeast who cherish his big spending on free healthcare, education, and farmer loans.
But he’s never been cozy with the men in uniform, who’ve long questioned Thaksin’s loyalty to the monarchy. The army ousted him in 2006 and his sister Yingluck in 2014 – business as usual in the country with the most coups since World War II.
For more than 20 years, almost every episode of political unrest in Thailand has pitted the pro-Thaksin "red shirts" against the "yellow shirts," backed by the army and supported by the ultra-conservative Bangkok business and political elite. The bloodiest confrontation was in 2010, when the military cracked down hard against "red shirts" in the capital's glitzy shopping district.
So, will the generals step in again if another Shinawatra comes to power? Certainly, according to Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
"Paetongtarn’s political future is perceived to be a threat by both the military and the political establishment because they remain preoccupied with Thaksin," Phakdeewanich says. "She has the right to run for office, but her political right is rejected by the military."
The military-backed government will do everything in its power to prevent Thaksin's party from winning a majority and Paetongtarn from becoming PM, says Purawich Watanasukh, a research fellow at the King Prajadhipok Institute. It could seek to disqualify the party, her candidacy, the election result, or remove her in a coup like her father and her aunt.
The bigger question, though, is whether Paetongtarn can get all the votes she needs. Thaksin's party could win the most seats in parliament, as it did in 2019, but fall short of an outright majority.
"We have to wait and see how many, and how many allies [Pheu Thai] will be able to find to take the lead in trying to go for the premiership," says Termsak Chalermpalanupap, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
What’s more, “the Thai political landscape has changed," says Phakdeewanich. Thaksin's party is still strong, but liberal and pro-democracy voters now have more choices, and the military-drafted constitution allows the generals to handpick a third of the senators who select the PM.
Still, if she runs and wins, Paetongtarn would become the youngest-ever Thai PM at 35. She hopes her youth will appeal to younger voters, including those involved in the 2020-2021 pro-democracy rallies that made history by seeking reforms of the monarchy.
To make a play for the youth vote, Paetongtarn is pushing for tech-oriented solutions to democratic participation and fielding younger MP candidates, says Watanasukh.
Chalermpalanupap, however, is skeptical that Paetongtarn can energize the youth with her name recognition alone: "Thaksin was in power when these young voters were in elementary or secondary school. To most of them, Thaksin is a distant history."
Thaksin return? Fielding his daughter as a proxy is Thaksin's last big chance to return to Thailand, says Chalermpalanupap. The former PM has been living in self-imposed exile in Dubai since 2008, when he was sentenced in absentia to two years in prison for abuse of power.
But to do so, Thaksin would need a pardon from King Maja Vajiralongkorn himself. That's a very long shot, considering that the monarch stripped Thaksin of his royal decorations in 2019 — shortly after the king blocked his own sister from running for prime minister in the last election … under a pro-Thaksin party.
Thailand may officially be a constitutional monarchy, but the king often intervenes in times of crisis — such as potential unrest over Thaksin’s return. His late father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, famously did so in 1992, when he made the two most powerful men in the country kneel before him and agree to end their political squabbles in order to get his blessing.
What'll Thaksin need to do to get a pardon?