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Talibans and their supporters gather in front of the American embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 14, 2024, to celebrate the 3rd anniversary of the take over. They decided to celebrate according to the Afghan calendar.
Hard Numbers: Taliban fires baby-faced cops, EU slaps tax on Tesla, Morocco pardons cannabis cultivators, Panama starts deportations, RFK Jr in signature scandal
281: Taliban security forces have found themselves in a hairy situation: 281 of them have been dismissed for failing to grow beards, which the fundamentalist religious group says is in accordance with Islamic laws. The crackdown came from Afghanistan’s morality ministry, which has detained more than 13,000 people for “immoral acts” over the last year.
19: The European Commission said Tuesday it will place a 19% tax on sales of Tesla automobiles manufactured in China — a steep surcharge, but far from the worst-case-scenario. Though the proposed tax is 9 percentage points higher than the levy applied to most foreign-made cars, it is far less than the 47% rate Brussels applies to Chinese EV manufacturers.
5,000: Legaliiiize it! Moroccan King Mohammed VIpardoned roughly 5,000 people convicted or wanted for illegal cannabis cultivation. Morocco is an odd bird in the weed world, as it is a major producer of marijuana, and cultivation, export, and medical use are all legal — but recreational use and cultivation for such use are not. The King hopes the pardons will encourage farmers to stick with legal cultivation efforts.
29: Panama on Monday began deporting undocumented migrants on US-funded flights, sending home 29 Colombians with criminal records. Panama and the US agreed in July to work together to stem the flow of hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing northward through the perilous Darien Gap, which lies along the Colombia-Panama border.
110,000: Fringe presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is in hot water in Arizona after the revelation that the 110,000 signatures meant to give him ballot access in that state were not collected by his own campaign. Rather, they were gathered by a PAC backing Kennedy, which may violate laws forbidding PACs and campaigns from coordinating.Colombia, Acandi, 2021-10-29. Haitian migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama. Photograph by Yader Guzman / Hans Lucas Colombie, Acandi, 2021-10-29. Des migrants haitiens traversent le Darien Gap en direction de la frontiere avec le Panama.
Panama pledges to mind the gap
Newly inaugurated Panamanian President José Raúl Mulinopledged this week to stop illegal migration through the Darién Gap, a harrowing swath of jungle along his country’s border with Colombia.
Last year, more than half a million people crossed the Darién headed northward through Central America to the US southern border.
Until now, Panama has used a “Controlled Flow” strategy, helping migrants pass through rather than allowing them to linger in the country. Mulino now wants to stop the flow altogether as part of a new agreement with the US, which will pay to send home migrants caught in the Darién.
The White House, of course, is desperate to limit migration flows – the southern border crisis is one of President Joe Biden’s biggest liabilities as he seeks reelection this fall.
But experts are skeptical of the new approach. “It’s not as easy as ‘let’s control a couple of migration routes,’” says Diego Chaves-González, an expert at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington. The Colombian side of the border is controlled by powerful drug cartels; on the Panamanian side, Indigenous groups hold sway.
Trying to shut down known routes, he says, would simply drive migrants and traffickers to create alternative, more clandestine ones. The result would be a game of whack-a-mole that wrecks the “controlled flow” strategy and could lead to more migrants staying in Panama – precisely the opposite of what Mulino wants.
Presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino arrives at a campaign rally, in Panama City, Panama, April 10, 2024.
Panama’s wild election approaches
This weekend, Panamanians will elect a president after a roller-coaster campaign period that has featured a dog with an X (formerly Twitter) account and a popular former president hiding in the storage room of a foreign embassy.
The country’s most popular politician, Ricardo Martinelli, is a charismatic populist supermarket tycoon known as “the crazy one” who oversaw a mini economic boom in Panama when he was president from 2009 to 2014.
But he’s currently holed up in the Nicaraguan Embassy in Panama City, where he’s avoiding arrest on money laundering charges he says are bogus.
That rap disqualified his candidacy in February, but Martinelli (and his social media-savvy dog, Bruno) has endorsed his one-time Veep candidate José Raúl Mulino, a somewhat drier figure who nevertheless leads polls by double digits with the support of about 30% of Panamanians.
In a fragmented field, that’s enough to win, as Panama’s single-round system rewards the top outright vote-getter.
“This election is about discontent and nostalgia,” says Yael Sternberg, an expert at Eurasia Group, who sees a paradox in Panamanians’ preferences.
Although they list corruption as a top concern, they also remember the Martinelli years fondly and are upset with the current government’s shortcomings.
“People feel totally failed by the government,” she says, “and people’s economic situations were just better under Martinelli.”
The election comes at a fraught time for Panama. Once the envy of its neighbors for its gleaming skyscrapers, rapid growth, and overall stability, the small Central American country is facing big challenges.
The pension system is nearing insolvency, and two of the biggest sources of foreign currency are in trouble: Low water levels in the Panama Canal’s reservoirs have crimped shipping volumes, and mass protests over corruption and environmental issues last year led to the closure of one of the world’s largest copper mines.
As a result, GDP growth is set to fall from a heady 7% last year to less than 3% in 2024, the third straight year of declines, and in March, one of the three main ratings agencies cut the country’s debt rating to “junk.”
All of which means that even if Mulino carries a strong mandate into the presidency, in a region where incumbents have enjoyed strikingly short honeymoon periods in recent years, Martinelli’s man in Panama will have to act fast, says Sternberg.
“He could probably keep support up for a bit, but he will probably be hated at some point if he’s not able to address these heavy, heavy tasks.”
Editor’s note: Bruno the dog was unavailable for comment.
Migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama.
Sexual assault spikes in the Darién Gap
Crossing the remote, dense jungle is dangerous enough, but now the migrants face a worrying uptick in sexual assaults against women and children. Médecins Sans Frontières has documented nearly 400 sexual assaults there this year, as armed gangs exploit the record number of migrants crossing the jungle. Due to the stigma around sexual assault, fear of perpetrators, and concern that reporting will delay the journey north, the real number is likely far higher. Most of the violence is occurring on the jungle’s Panama side, which lacks the drug cartel that acts as a police force on Colombia’s side of the border.
In August, communication between Panama and Colombia fell apart after they failed to reach a deal to regulate their border. Talks have not resumed, with both countries pointing the finger at the other to take the lead. Yesterday, the US Department of Homeland Security announced it would send a team to Panama, but solely for training purposes. With no sign of a drop in migration, the fear is that the perils facing migrants are becoming normalized as governments fail to address the crisis.A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.
The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up?
El Salvador made headlines in recent days after President Nayib Bukele released photos of gang members being corralled into the country’s new mega-prison – a sprawling complex that will eventually hold 40,000 inmates. It’s the latest development in Bukele’s massive – and very popular – crackdown on gangs, in which Salvadoran authorities have locked up almost 2% of the adult population. (Never mind that US officials have recently accused Bukele of colluding with the very gangs he says he’s trying to stamp out!) El Salvador now has the highest prison rate per 100,000 people in the world – but how does that compare globally? Here we take a look at the countries with the highest official prison rates.
A demonstrator holds up a mock mouse head during a protest against inflation in Panama City.
What We're Watching: Panama protests, US-Taiwan drama, Russia-Ukraine grain deal
Protests paralyze Panama
In yet another example of how inflation caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine is stoking social upheaval around the globe, the Central American country has been paralyzed for weeks by protests over the high cost of food and gasoline. The demonstrations began in late June, fueled by footage of lawmakers partying with $340 bottles of whisky, and they have continued despite the government’s move to lower gasoline prices over the weekend. Now, with highways partly shut by protesters, food, and fuel shortages are worsening, and the government is rationing electricity to parts of the country because fuel trucks can’t get through. For decades, Panama has been relatively stable, owing to revenue from the Panama Canal and the fact that its currency is pegged to the US dollar. But as the Panamanian salsero Rubén Blades once noted, life is full of surprises: the pandemic crushed GDP by nearly 20% in 2020, and the recovery has been slow, with the jobless rate remaining above 12%. Meanwhile, inequality ranks among the highest in the region, and activists say corruption is rampant, even though the country returned to democracy in 1990 after Uncle Sam’s heavy metal ouster of dictator Manuel Noriega.
So, is Pelosi going to Taiwan or not?
Two days after the Financial Times reported that Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan next month – the first US House speaker to do so in 25 years – President Joe Biden said the Pentagon thinks it’s a bad idea. The still-unconfirmed trip has ruffled feathers in China, which regards the self-governing island as part of its territory — right as Biden and Xi Jinping are scheduling their next Zoom call, their first since March. We don’t know for sure, but perhaps Biden was kept in the loop and is coming out against the planned trip to throw Xi a bone ahead of the meeting. Either way, this all comes on the heels of growing love for Taiwan from US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and follows Biden's own gaffes, ahem, strong-worded statements about the US defending Taiwan from a future Chinese invasion. Beijing, for its part, is likely as confused as we are by the mixed signals about an issue that, importantly, triggers China like no other.
Russia & Ukraine break bread
Lots of good food news lately. Turkey has announced that Ukraine and Russia will ink a UN-brokered deal on Friday to resume grain exports by sea from Ukraine's Black Sea ports (they agreed in principle last week, but this time it's for real). Until Russia invaded Ukraine, the two sunflower superpowers were among the world's top exporters of grain and cooking oils, and Russia was a major fertilizer supplier. Still, it'll take a while for the huge backlog of shipments — presuming this all goes smoothly — to reach destinations in Africa and elsewhere. The two sides could also nix the agreement at any moment if things get dicey on the battlefield. That said, the deal is definitely a step in the right direction, and more cheap fertilizer alone could help ease food inflation worldwide, not to mention 2023 harvests. For complete coverage of the global food crisis, check out our Hunger Pains project.Trump speaks during a campaign rally when he was US president in Jacksonville, Florida.
What We’re Watching: GOP mulls Trump 2.0, UK leadership race heats up, energy crisis could get worse
Republican voters divided on Trump 2024
US Democrats seem to have soured on President Joe Biden, but are Republicans ready to turn their backs on former President Donald Trump? The short answer is: it’s complicated. A fresh New York Timespoll shows about half of GOP voters don't want Trump to run a third time in 2024, but the other half do. The main takeaway is that Trump's once-formidable hold over the Republican Party has waned somewhat since (tumultuously) leaving office in January 2021, yet he still wields considerable influence with the base. Since hardcore Trump fans are more likely to turn out for primaries, he has been busy endorsing candidates for November’s midterm elections, so far with mixed results. The big test for Trump's stature within the GOP will be whether his picks can win in the general — especially the battle for control of the Senate, which Republicans are eager to flip (and only need one seat to do so). Meanwhile, there's growing chatter that Trump may announce his reelection bid before the midterms, which he hopes will freeze a potentially crowded GOP field in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is now gaining on him.
Tory succession race narrows
The race is on to select the UK’s next prime minister following Boris Johnson’s tumultuous tenure. His resignation on Friday launched the search for a new leader of the Conservative Party. Eight candidates are vying to replace him: Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, Nadhim Zahawi, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, and Jeremy Hunt. Each has passed the first hurdle of getting at least 20 Tory MPs to endorse them — Johnson notably declined to back a possible successor so as not to hurt anyone’s chances. While the list confirms the ambitions of frontrunners like Sunak and Truss, it surprisingly did not include prominent figures Priti Patel and Sajid Javid. The most challenging steps are still to come, starting with the first round of voting on Wednesday in which all 358 Tory MPs will cast their first ballot, with subsequent votes held this week and next until the list is whittled down to two. Hustings will be held nationwide in August, before roughly 160,000 Conservative Party members vote by mail to choose the winner who will be named on Sept. 5. So much for a quiet British summer.