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Putin trolls Europe about "the master" Trump
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"?
It means that he loves to troll his adversaries. Don't you remember when he said that he actually thought Biden would be a better president from Russia's perspective than Trump? He trolls. It's all misinformation. It's propaganda. It's all served to undermine and show that he's powerful, and he can say whatever he wants. And of course, he would love to see a fight between the Americans and their allies, whether it's the Nordics on Greenland or it's Canada on 51st state, or it's Panama on the canal, or it's Europe on tariffs. And he wants to undermine the countries that gets a divide and conquer kind of response from Putin. And that is what he is doing when he trolls the Europeans.
What's next for Panama after deciding to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative?
Well, certainly, of all the countries that are facing a deeply asymmetric relationship on the back of threats from President Trump, Panama is high on that list. And they really are trying to find a way to avoid tariffs and avoid the Americans squeezing them on the canal. And an easy way to do that, because they've heard this now directly from Trump and from Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is that the Chinese have too much influence over transit. And that is particularly true through these port facilities that a Hong Kong-based company, read, China, is in charge of. And so, they are opening investigations into the contract and into how they engage there. And they're also saying they'll pull out of Belt and Road. All of that is clearly going to upset and antagonize the Chinese. And I think that the Panamanians are very, very comfortable showing that they are going to orient much more towards the United States, given how much more they rely on the Americans.
How would a potential Turkey defense pact with Syria reshape power dynamics in the Middle East?
Given who's on the ground in Syria and the fact that the Americans are likely to pull out the over 2,000 troops they have there, and that Trump has said it's really up to Turkey to maintain that relationship, they were the ones that were closest to the rebels that ended up defeating, overthrowing Assad's regime. Not surprised at all that that is where the diplomacy is heading. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be stable, and it certainly doesn't mean that the Kurds on the ground are going to be handled well. And that will be what we need to watch carefully. But Turkey, a NATO ally that has a lot of influence across the region and particularly now on the ground with Syria, I think that'll be relatively stable given the support from the United States. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
What do Donald Trump, Bad Bunny, and the Panama Canal have in common?
Donald Trump wants to take back the Panama Canal, and Bad Bunny’s new album "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS" is the most streamed record in the world right now. What do these two things have to do with each other?
More than you’d think. That’s because reggaetón, the genre Bad Bunny is best known for, actually has its origins on the the banks of the Panama Canal.
And American foreign policy played a key part in that story.
When the Americans built the canal in the years before World War I, they brought in thousands of workers from across the West Indies, but especially Jamaica, to do the hard labor. Afterward, those laborers were permitted to live and work in the Canal Zone, a strip of US sovereign territory inside Panama that flanked the canal, ensuring US control over the waterway.
The Panamanians didn’t love this arrangement. Many felt the original canal treaties were illegitimate, and resentment at the US presence grew. In 1964, when the US stopped students from flying a Panamanian flag in the Canal Zone, a mass riot left four American soldiers and 22 Panamanian police officers dead. The Soviet Union blasted Washington’s “colonizing policy.” Fidel Castro decried “Yankee imperialism.”
In 1977, US President Jimmy Carter decided to give the canal to Panama. Carter thought this would improve America’s relations with Latin America, and avoid a more costly crisis around the Canal itself.
“Fairness, not force, should lie at the heart of our dealings with the rest of the world,” he said at the time.
Carter’s plan was unpopular at home. The stiffest opposition came from a telegenic young California governor named Ronald Reagan. But Carter’s dogged lobbying – and some help from John Wayne, whose first wife was Panamanian – helped to win narrow passage of the handover treaties. The canal itself wouldn't be given to Panama until 1999, but the controversial canal zone was dissolved almost immediately, in 1979.
And that’s where the music comes back into the story. Many of the Jamaicans and West Indians living in the Canal Zone moved to nearby Panama City. And when they did, they brought with them the popular new sound coming out of Jamaica at the time – “dancehall,” a rawer, streetier, more club-oriented successor to the reggae of the 1970s.
It wasn’t long before dancehall was reinterpreted in Spanish, becoming a new genre called Reggae en Español, a unique mashup made by the West Indians of the Canal Zone and Panama’s own Afro-Panamanian communities.
But we still aren’t in Puerto Rico yet! Right. We’re getting there.
In 1985, one of the pioneers of the Panamanian scene, known as El General, moved to New York. There he introduced the sound to the city’s huge Puerto Rican diaspora, who helped popularize it back on the island where, in turn, local artists brought hip-hop and Puerto Rican traditional styles into a musical mix that would soon go from the streets of Panama and Puerto Rico to the whole globe.
The first documented use of the term reggaeton dates from this period, when a young Daddy Yankee (whose song “Gasolina” would become the first global reggaeton hit in 2004) used it in a freestyle on an early 1990s mixtape. And just a few years after that, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio was born in Bayamón, Puerto Rico.
You now know young Benito as "Bad Bunny."
So why does Trump want the canal back anyway? He thinks it was a “mistake” to give up a canal that handles more than 5% of global trade. As Trump sees it, the US is locked in a zero-sum economic competition with China, and controlling that canal is critical, whether the Panamanians like it or not.
This is the inverse of Carter’s formulation – Trump's world is one where force is squarely at the center of America’s dealings with both friends and foes.
Trump's view echoes older ideas about America’s natural right to expand and dominate the Western Hemisphere. His America will, he says, be one that “expands our territory ... and carries our flag into new and beautiful horizons,” as he pledged in his inaugural address.
But do you know what the last major US territorial expansion in Latin America was? It was the takeover, in 1898, of Puerto Rico, as a result of the Spanish-American war. The island has been, in effect, a colony of the US ever since.
And to come full circle here, the negative impacts of that 127-year relationship – political repression, exploitative neglect, mass emigration, and creeping gentrification – are all major themes of … Bad Bunny’s new album.
If you want to learn more about this story – including the complicated issues of class, gender, and race that are part of reggaeton’s evolution – check out the podcast “LOUD,” a history narrated by Ivy Queen, one of the pioneering women of the genre.
FILE PHOTO: Singapore MAERSK TAURUS container ship transits through Cocoli Locks in the Panama Canal, on the outskirts of Panama City, Panama, August 12, 2024.
Trump threats prompt Panama probe
Just hours after Donald Trump threatened again to take the Panama Canal in his inaugural address Monday, Panama opened a probe into a Hong Kong-based company that operates ports at both ends of the waterway.
The backdrop: The US built and opened the canal in 1914, and kept direct control of it until 1999, when it was given to Panama after years of protest against the US presence. Trump says that was a “mistake” and wants to retake it, claiming Panama “overcharges” US ships and has allowed China to exert too much influence.
Canal tolls have increased in recent years due to water shortages, but they apply equally to ships from all countries. Chinese companies are active in Panama, but there is no evidence so far of their meddling in the canal itself.
Panama says it won’t give up the canal, which handles 6% of global trade. But if Trump wants to force the issue, there’s little the tiny country could do. Probing a company based in Hong Kong, a nominally autonomous city-state that has fallen under stricter Chinese control in recent years, is a sign Panama wants to head off a bigger crisis.
Trump’s response to the probe will tell us a lot. If he’s using threats to secure preferential rates for US ships, then a peaceful resolution is possible. But if he thinks direct control is essential in a zero-sum global competition with China, then the probe won’t move him, and things could get frothier fast.
If so, the question in Panama – as in Greenland, which Trump also wants – will quickly become: What other global powers might Panama turn to for help?
Talibans and their supporters gather in front of the American embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, August 14, 2024, to celebrate the 3rd anniversary of the take over. They decided to celebrate according to the Afghan calendar.
Hard Numbers: Taliban fires baby-faced cops, EU slaps tax on Tesla, Morocco pardons cannabis cultivators, Panama starts deportations, RFK Jr in signature scandal
281: Taliban security forces have found themselves in a hairy situation: 281 of them have been dismissed for failing to grow beards, which the fundamentalist religious group says is in accordance with Islamic laws. The crackdown came from Afghanistan’s morality ministry, which has detained more than 13,000 people for “immoral acts” over the last year.
19: The European Commission said Tuesday it will place a 19% tax on sales of Tesla automobiles manufactured in China — a steep surcharge, but far from the worst-case-scenario. Though the proposed tax is 9 percentage points higher than the levy applied to most foreign-made cars, it is far less than the 47% rate Brussels applies to Chinese EV manufacturers.
5,000: Legaliiiize it! Moroccan King Mohammed VIpardoned roughly 5,000 people convicted or wanted for illegal cannabis cultivation. Morocco is an odd bird in the weed world, as it is a major producer of marijuana, and cultivation, export, and medical use are all legal — but recreational use and cultivation for such use are not. The King hopes the pardons will encourage farmers to stick with legal cultivation efforts.
29: Panama on Monday began deporting undocumented migrants on US-funded flights, sending home 29 Colombians with criminal records. Panama and the US agreed in July to work together to stem the flow of hundreds of thousands of migrants crossing northward through the perilous Darien Gap, which lies along the Colombia-Panama border.
110,000: Fringe presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is in hot water in Arizona after the revelation that the 110,000 signatures meant to give him ballot access in that state were not collected by his own campaign. Rather, they were gathered by a PAC backing Kennedy, which may violate laws forbidding PACs and campaigns from coordinating.Colombia, Acandi, 2021-10-29. Haitian migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama. Photograph by Yader Guzman / Hans Lucas Colombie, Acandi, 2021-10-29. Des migrants haitiens traversent le Darien Gap en direction de la frontiere avec le Panama.
Panama pledges to mind the gap
Newly inaugurated Panamanian President José Raúl Mulinopledged this week to stop illegal migration through the Darién Gap, a harrowing swath of jungle along his country’s border with Colombia.
Last year, more than half a million people crossed the Darién headed northward through Central America to the US southern border.
Until now, Panama has used a “Controlled Flow” strategy, helping migrants pass through rather than allowing them to linger in the country. Mulino now wants to stop the flow altogether as part of a new agreement with the US, which will pay to send home migrants caught in the Darién.
The White House, of course, is desperate to limit migration flows – the southern border crisis is one of President Joe Biden’s biggest liabilities as he seeks reelection this fall.
But experts are skeptical of the new approach. “It’s not as easy as ‘let’s control a couple of migration routes,’” says Diego Chaves-González, an expert at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington. The Colombian side of the border is controlled by powerful drug cartels; on the Panamanian side, Indigenous groups hold sway.
Trying to shut down known routes, he says, would simply drive migrants and traffickers to create alternative, more clandestine ones. The result would be a game of whack-a-mole that wrecks the “controlled flow” strategy and could lead to more migrants staying in Panama – precisely the opposite of what Mulino wants.
Presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino arrives at a campaign rally, in Panama City, Panama, April 10, 2024.
Panama’s wild election approaches
This weekend, Panamanians will elect a president after a roller-coaster campaign period that has featured a dog with an X (formerly Twitter) account and a popular former president hiding in the storage room of a foreign embassy.
The country’s most popular politician, Ricardo Martinelli, is a charismatic populist supermarket tycoon known as “the crazy one” who oversaw a mini economic boom in Panama when he was president from 2009 to 2014.
But he’s currently holed up in the Nicaraguan Embassy in Panama City, where he’s avoiding arrest on money laundering charges he says are bogus.
That rap disqualified his candidacy in February, but Martinelli (and his social media-savvy dog, Bruno) has endorsed his one-time Veep candidate José Raúl Mulino, a somewhat drier figure who nevertheless leads polls by double digits with the support of about 30% of Panamanians.
In a fragmented field, that’s enough to win, as Panama’s single-round system rewards the top outright vote-getter.
“This election is about discontent and nostalgia,” says Yael Sternberg, an expert at Eurasia Group, who sees a paradox in Panamanians’ preferences.
Although they list corruption as a top concern, they also remember the Martinelli years fondly and are upset with the current government’s shortcomings.
“People feel totally failed by the government,” she says, “and people’s economic situations were just better under Martinelli.”
The election comes at a fraught time for Panama. Once the envy of its neighbors for its gleaming skyscrapers, rapid growth, and overall stability, the small Central American country is facing big challenges.
The pension system is nearing insolvency, and two of the biggest sources of foreign currency are in trouble: Low water levels in the Panama Canal’s reservoirs have crimped shipping volumes, and mass protests over corruption and environmental issues last year led to the closure of one of the world’s largest copper mines.
As a result, GDP growth is set to fall from a heady 7% last year to less than 3% in 2024, the third straight year of declines, and in March, one of the three main ratings agencies cut the country’s debt rating to “junk.”
All of which means that even if Mulino carries a strong mandate into the presidency, in a region where incumbents have enjoyed strikingly short honeymoon periods in recent years, Martinelli’s man in Panama will have to act fast, says Sternberg.
“He could probably keep support up for a bit, but he will probably be hated at some point if he’s not able to address these heavy, heavy tasks.”
Editor’s note: Bruno the dog was unavailable for comment.
Migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama.
Sexual assault spikes in the Darién Gap
Crossing the remote, dense jungle is dangerous enough, but now the migrants face a worrying uptick in sexual assaults against women and children. Médecins Sans Frontières has documented nearly 400 sexual assaults there this year, as armed gangs exploit the record number of migrants crossing the jungle. Due to the stigma around sexual assault, fear of perpetrators, and concern that reporting will delay the journey north, the real number is likely far higher. Most of the violence is occurring on the jungle’s Panama side, which lacks the drug cartel that acts as a police force on Colombia’s side of the border.
In August, communication between Panama and Colombia fell apart after they failed to reach a deal to regulate their border. Talks have not resumed, with both countries pointing the finger at the other to take the lead. Yesterday, the US Department of Homeland Security announced it would send a team to Panama, but solely for training purposes. With no sign of a drop in migration, the fear is that the perils facing migrants are becoming normalized as governments fail to address the crisis.A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.