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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is pictured at the Group of Seven summit venue in Kananaskis, Canada, on June 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Disappointing day for Zelensky, Tensions flare on Thailand’s border, Armenia and Turkey turn a new leaf
Bad day for Zelensky
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left the G7 without getting a meeting with US President Donald Trump. To add insult to injury, the Trump administration has suspended a working group meant to pressure Russia into speeding up peace talks with Ukraine. This all comes as the US is planning to send Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg to meet with Russian-aligned Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – the highest ranking US official to meet with the authoritarian leader since 2020.
Border tensions flare between Thailand and Cambodia
Thousands of protestors gathered in Cambodia’s capital of Phnom Penh on Wednesday to show support for the government’s decision to deploy the armed forces to the country’s border with Thailand. Tensions between the two countries have escalated in recent weeks following a brief military clash in their disputed border zone late last month, which left one Cambodian soldier dead. This comes as Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s ruling coalition appears on the verge of collapse over perceptions that she has been too diplomatic in her approach to Cambodia.
Armenia’s PM to make rare visit to Turkey
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyanwill meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Friday, in a bid to repair one of the world’s most antagonistic relationships. The bad blood originates from World War One, when the Ottoman empire killed masses of Armenians. More recently, it has revolved around Armenia’s post-Soviet wars with Azerbaijan, a Turkish ally. Russian-aligned Armenia – a tiny, isolated nation – lost the last round of conflict with Azerbaijan in 2023, and sees rapprochement with Turkey as a way to broaden its ties to the West.South Korea's President-elect Lee Jae-myung waves as he leaves to meet his supporters, in Incheon, South Korea, June 3, 2025.
What We’re Watching: South Korea's election results, Ukraine strikes Crimean bridge, Sudan's government disolves
Lee Jae-myung poised for victory in South Korea’s election
Progressive candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to soundly defeat conservative opponent Kim Moon-soo in the Korean presidential election, with exit polls showing him winning by 12 points. Lee shifted to the center during the campaign, but his political history may indicate otherwise – his victory could also signal a more cozy relationship with long-time rival China. To read more about how his election could realign the Indo-Pacific, click here.
Ukraine strikes key Crimean bridge
Ukraine launched a powerful underwater explosion damaging the Kerch Bridge on Tuesday, a critical road and rail link between Russia and occupied Crimea. The attack, following a drone strike on Russian bombers on Sunday, signals Ukraine’s increasing reach and resolve. Peace talks remain deadlocked, and this attack is unlikely to bridge the gap.
Sudan’s new Prime Minister dissolves government amid ongoing civil war
Sudanese Prime Minister Kamil Idris dissolved the caretaker government on Sunday, just a day after taking office, signaling a major political setback amid a devastating civil war that has so far displaced 14 million people. Idris, who was to be the first civilian leader since 2022, offered no timeline for forming a new government
Children walk through the destruction, as Palestinians try to build tents next to their destroyed homes after returning to Khan Younis, amid the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Gaza ceasefire talks underway as first phase deadline looms
Phase one of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to expire Saturday amid uncertainty over whether there’s enough common ground to discuss phase two.
Both sides are sending delegations to Cairo for possible talks, with Qatar and Egypt serving as intermediaries in the US-backed process. This first phase, which went into effect on Jan. 19, included the handover of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Both parties paused hostilities in Gaza, where brutal fighting has destroyed around 70% of the structures and killed at least 48,000, according to Gaza’s health ministry, so people could return to their homes and critical aid could be allowed in.
Negotiations for the second phase, which is meant to include Israeli troop withdrawal from the narrow strip between Gaza and Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor in exchange for the dozens of remaining hostages, were supposed to start earlier this month but have yet to get underway. Now Israel wants to extend the first phase and secure the release of more hostages without leaving the corridor, which is likely to hamper negotiations for the second phase and beyond.
That raises even bigger questions about Gaza’s future. President Donald Trump has proposed turning Gaza into a “Riviera,” permanently displacing Palestinians, while Egypt wants to rebuild infrastructure, exclude Hamas from government, and keep Palestinians on their land.
FILE PHOTO: Palestinian children walk past the rubble of houses, destroyed in previous Israeli strikes, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, January 7, 2025.
Trump deadline looms over Gaza peace talks
The war in Gaza took center stage Tuesday atPresident-elect Donald Trump’s second press conference since his election in November. Trump repeated earlier statements he made in December – which were applauded by Israel – that “if those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.” He didn’t elaborate.
WhileHamas and Israel have been in ceasefire discussions mediated by Qatar and Egypt, there has been little progress, with Hamas reiterating its demands to halt the war in exchange for any hostage deal.
Meanwhile, theUAE is spearheading discussions with the US and Israel to establish a provisional government for Gaza after the cessation of hostilities. One scenario would have the administration, security, and reconstruction of Gaza overseen by a group of nations including the UAE and the US, after Israel withdraws its forces and until a“reformed” Palestinian Authority is installed in the territory. It wouldalso include “an explicit commitment to the two-state solution” from Israel, and a “clear leadership role by the US.”
But officials involved said that the proposals were not fully fleshed out and had not been approved by any government. While the Palestinian Authority – helmed by Mahmoud Abbas for 20 years, as of this Thursday – has suggested an openness to reforms in years past, neither the PA nor Israel has issued a comment about the UAE’s proposal. Meanwhile, Israel’s parliament rejected the creation of an independent Palestinian state last July.
We’re watching whether Trump’s deadline spurs the parties to find a resolution – and what his vision of America’s post-war involvement would be.
FILE PHOTO: At a secret jungle camp in Myanmar's eastern Karen state, a fitness coach and other civilians are training with armed ethnic guerrillas to fight back against the country's military takeover.
Myanmar junta calls for peace talks with minority militias — not pro-democracy fighters
After a year of rebel victories that have left Myanmar’s ruling junta on the defensive, its chairman, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, invited ethnic minority armies to peace talks in a state television broadcast on Tuesday. The junta's invitation likely aims to divide these groups from pro-democracy fighters from the ethnic Burmese majority.
About half of Myanmar’s 21 armed ethnic militias signed onto a cease-fire agreement between 2015 and 2018 during a period of democratic reform, but heavy hitters like the United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Army stayed in the fight, and former signatories have since returned to combat.
Divide and conquer? Myanmar has experienced civil war since 1948, but the military has historically maintained control of the fertile and densely populated lowlands, even while minorities resisted in the hills and mountains. Only when ethnic Burmese rose up with the backing of the Buddhist clergy in 1988 and 2007 did the generals cede some political power.
But after the military toppled the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, her supporters formed the so-called National Unity Government and set up armed People’s Defense Forces. They’re believed to have up to 100,000 fighters, and the PDF has cooperated with allies from the highlands to wrest approximately 86% of Myanmar’s townships from junta control, including major border crossings.
So far, none of the major militias seem eager to take part, but we’re watching what measures of autonomy the junta might offer them to achieve a cease-fire — and to free up resources to crush the PDF.
Is it time for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia? Journalist Yaroslav Trofimov explains Kyiv's perspective
Listen: Ukraine is at a crossroads. It's been more than two years of brutal, deadly conflict. Despite some shifts to the front lines, neither side has a clear path to military victory, and support for the war effort is flagging amongst Ukrainians. Is it time for President Zelensky to think about negotiating an end to the war? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent and author of "Our Enemies Will Vanish," about the challenges Ukraine faces, including waning morale and difficulties in military recruitment. Although recent polls indicate that Ukrainians are more receptive to peace talks, Trofimov warns that Russia’s endgame remains unchanged—total erasure of Ukrainian national identity. With the painful history of Soviet-Era aggression still fresh in the national memory, most Ukrainians are resolute that they won’t accept compromise unless it means the return of all internationally recognized land. Trofimov cautions that the absence of security guarantees by NATO and Western allies means Russia's assault on Ukraine is far from over.
Though Bremmer and Trofimov spoke in July before Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the larger picture remains bleak: no clear path to ending the war, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and nearly 20% of Ukraine still under occupation. And if Donald Trump wins a second term, continued US military support is uncertain. So, is it time for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia for a swift end to the war? If not, what will be the cost of all this suffering?
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Ian Explains: Will Ukraine ever negotiate with Russia?
An impossible choice: After more than two years of grinding war, should Ukraine start thinking about negotiating with Russia? So far, President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected any talks with Moscow, but the situation might be changing. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer delves into the tough decisions Kyiv may have to make as Russia’s invasion lurches through its third year. The idea of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin—once unthinkable—is gaining traction as the war drags on with heavy casualties on both sides. Despite Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russian territory, the overall picture remains bleak: Ukraine’s military is stretched thin, continued military assistance from the US is not a guarantee, Russia continues to attack civilian infrastructure, and it still controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory. It’s a grim reality. Despite Ukraine’s resilience, the prospect of an endless, bloody war might ultimately force Kyiv to consider ceding territory to Russia. It’s an outcome that would save lives but ultimately leave the Ukrainian people in a precarious position.
Watch Ian's interview with Yaroslav Trofimov on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Yahya Sinwar, head of the Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip, waves his hand to the crowd during the celebration of International Quds Day in Gaza City. Iran's leader delivered a historic address to the Palestinian people of Gaza, telling them to stick up to the fighting against Israel in a speech that reflected his country's support for the territory's ruling Hamas militant group. Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day, is a commemorative day in support of the Palestinian people held annually on the last Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan by an initiative started by the late founder of the Islamic Republic in Iran.
Can Gaza truce talks survive Hamas’s new political appointee?
Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, its new political leader. Sinwar replaces Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. By tapping Sinwar, the militant group is moving in an even more hardline direction, raising doubts about a possible cease-fire.
Who is Sinwar? While Haniyeh was considered relatively moderate and open to diplomacy, Sinwar is known as uncompromising, ruthless, and violent. He, along with Mohammed Deif – who Israel claims to have killed – worked to build up the armed wing of Hamas. Believed to be hiding in the underground tunnel network in Gaza, Sinwar was already one of the most influential Hamas figures — and now he has full control over the military and political decisions of Hamas, as well as the fate of Israeli hostages.
Where does this leave negotiations? Even before Haniyeh’s death, any cease-fire agreement required Sinwar’s consent. This has reportedly delayed the process at times, as Sinwar is being actively hunted by Israel and reportedly refuses to use electronic communications (to avoid being found) — making it difficult for him to communicate with negotiators. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has been pushing hard for a truce, on Tuesday emphasized that Sinwar has had the final word over a truce deal “for some time.”
Sinwar demands that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released and that Israel withdraw fully from Gaza. But he also reportedly wants a permanent cease-fire that secures a historic victory for Hamas. Now that Sinwar has even more power, it gives him an opening to dig in further – to deny Israel a chance to claim victory.
Sinwar’s appointment could also see Israel become less open to reaching a cease-fire, given that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has vowed to destroy Hamas — refers to him as a “dead man walking.” But the Israeli leader is also facing intense domestic pressure to secure the release of the hostages.
We’ll be watching to see how Sinwar’s appointment impacts talks after months of failed efforts by international mediators.