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FILE PHOTO: At a secret jungle camp in Myanmar's eastern Karen state, a fitness coach and other civilians are training with armed ethnic guerrillas to fight back against the country's military takeover.
Myanmar junta calls for peace talks with minority militias — not pro-democracy fighters
After a year of rebel victories that have left Myanmar’s ruling junta on the defensive, its chairman, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, invited ethnic minority armies to peace talks in a state television broadcast on Tuesday. The junta's invitation likely aims to divide these groups from pro-democracy fighters from the ethnic Burmese majority.
About half of Myanmar’s 21 armed ethnic militias signed onto a cease-fire agreement between 2015 and 2018 during a period of democratic reform, but heavy hitters like the United Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Army stayed in the fight, and former signatories have since returned to combat.
Divide and conquer? Myanmar has experienced civil war since 1948, but the military has historically maintained control of the fertile and densely populated lowlands, even while minorities resisted in the hills and mountains. Only when ethnic Burmese rose up with the backing of the Buddhist clergy in 1988 and 2007 did the generals cede some political power.
But after the military toppled the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, her supporters formed the so-called National Unity Government and set up armed People’s Defense Forces. They’re believed to have up to 100,000 fighters, and the PDF has cooperated with allies from the highlands to wrest approximately 86% of Myanmar’s townships from junta control, including major border crossings.
So far, none of the major militias seem eager to take part, but we’re watching what measures of autonomy the junta might offer them to achieve a cease-fire — and to free up resources to crush the PDF.
Is it time for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia? Journalist Yaroslav Trofimov explains Kyiv's perspective
Listen: Ukraine is at a crossroads. It's been more than two years of brutal, deadly conflict. Despite some shifts to the front lines, neither side has a clear path to military victory, and support for the war effort is flagging amongst Ukrainians. Is it time for President Zelensky to think about negotiating an end to the war? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits with Yaroslav Trofimov, Wall Street Journal Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent and author of "Our Enemies Will Vanish," about the challenges Ukraine faces, including waning morale and difficulties in military recruitment. Although recent polls indicate that Ukrainians are more receptive to peace talks, Trofimov warns that Russia’s endgame remains unchanged—total erasure of Ukrainian national identity. With the painful history of Soviet-Era aggression still fresh in the national memory, most Ukrainians are resolute that they won’t accept compromise unless it means the return of all internationally recognized land. Trofimov cautions that the absence of security guarantees by NATO and Western allies means Russia's assault on Ukraine is far from over.
Though Bremmer and Trofimov spoke in July before Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, the larger picture remains bleak: no clear path to ending the war, hundreds of thousands of lives lost, and nearly 20% of Ukraine still under occupation. And if Donald Trump wins a second term, continued US military support is uncertain. So, is it time for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia for a swift end to the war? If not, what will be the cost of all this suffering?
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Ian Explains: Will Ukraine ever negotiate with Russia?
An impossible choice: After more than two years of grinding war, should Ukraine start thinking about negotiating with Russia? So far, President Volodymyr Zelensky has firmly rejected any talks with Moscow, but the situation might be changing. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer delves into the tough decisions Kyiv may have to make as Russia’s invasion lurches through its third year. The idea of negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin—once unthinkable—is gaining traction as the war drags on with heavy casualties on both sides. Despite Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russian territory, the overall picture remains bleak: Ukraine’s military is stretched thin, continued military assistance from the US is not a guarantee, Russia continues to attack civilian infrastructure, and it still controls around 20% of Ukrainian territory. It’s a grim reality. Despite Ukraine’s resilience, the prospect of an endless, bloody war might ultimately force Kyiv to consider ceding territory to Russia. It’s an outcome that would save lives but ultimately leave the Ukrainian people in a precarious position.
Watch Ian's interview with Yaroslav Trofimov on the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Yahya Sinwar, head of the Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip, waves his hand to the crowd during the celebration of International Quds Day in Gaza City. Iran's leader delivered a historic address to the Palestinian people of Gaza, telling them to stick up to the fighting against Israel in a speech that reflected his country's support for the territory's ruling Hamas militant group. Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day, is a commemorative day in support of the Palestinian people held annually on the last Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan by an initiative started by the late founder of the Islamic Republic in Iran.
Can Gaza truce talks survive Hamas’s new political appointee?
Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, its new political leader. Sinwar replaces Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran last week. By tapping Sinwar, the militant group is moving in an even more hardline direction, raising doubts about a possible cease-fire.
Who is Sinwar? While Haniyeh was considered relatively moderate and open to diplomacy, Sinwar is known as uncompromising, ruthless, and violent. He, along with Mohammed Deif – who Israel claims to have killed – worked to build up the armed wing of Hamas. Believed to be hiding in the underground tunnel network in Gaza, Sinwar was already one of the most influential Hamas figures — and now he has full control over the military and political decisions of Hamas, as well as the fate of Israeli hostages.
Where does this leave negotiations? Even before Haniyeh’s death, any cease-fire agreement required Sinwar’s consent. This has reportedly delayed the process at times, as Sinwar is being actively hunted by Israel and reportedly refuses to use electronic communications (to avoid being found) — making it difficult for him to communicate with negotiators. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has been pushing hard for a truce, on Tuesday emphasized that Sinwar has had the final word over a truce deal “for some time.”
Sinwar demands that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released and that Israel withdraw fully from Gaza. But he also reportedly wants a permanent cease-fire that secures a historic victory for Hamas. Now that Sinwar has even more power, it gives him an opening to dig in further – to deny Israel a chance to claim victory.
Sinwar’s appointment could also see Israel become less open to reaching a cease-fire, given that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who has vowed to destroy Hamas — refers to him as a “dead man walking.” But the Israeli leader is also facing intense domestic pressure to secure the release of the hostages.
We’ll be watching to see how Sinwar’s appointment impacts talks after months of failed efforts by international mediators.
Palestinians flee the area after an Israeli attack on July 13, 2024 in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip.
Hamas says Mohammed Deif lives and denies halting truce talks
Hamas claimed it had not withdrawn from Gaza truce talks on Sunday, despite earlier reports to the contrary, after Saturday’s Israeli offensive targeted Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif. Hamas says Deif survived, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Deif’s fate remains unclear. The strike killed 92 other Palestinians, including women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
A Hamas official described the attacks as a “grave escalation” that showed Israel was not interested in reaching a cease-fire agreement, but Hamas’s military strategy also does not facilitate this objective. A weekend report from the New York Times, for example, details how Hamas fighters embed their operations within civilian areas, ensuring that any Israeli action produces heavy casualties. Hamas fighters often use a system of lookouts, including children, to monitor Israeli movements before emerging in plain clothes to launch surprise attacks and meld back into the local population.
This accomplishes Hamas’s real goal of dragging out the conflict with Israel, undermining the Jewish state and isolating it on the international stage.As far back as November 2023, Khalil al-Hayya, a deputy to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, said “This battle … did not seek to improve the situation in Gaza. This battle is to completely overthrow the situation.”
With the conflictnow increasingly expanding to include Hezbollah, Hamas may be dangerously close to achieving this goal. The losers, of course, are both the Palestinian inhabitants of Gaza and the people of Israel, desperate for the return of the over 100 hostages still held by Hamas, as well as Jews around the world now subject to a surge in antisemitic attacks.
Who's winning the Israel-Palestine information war?
To fully grasp why the Gaza war remains so far from a peaceful resolution, you need to understand the codependency between Israel's Far Right and Hamas. So says Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman on "GZERO World."
Watch full episode here: How the Israel-Gaza war could end - if Netanyahu wants it to
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
What would an Israel-Palestine solution look like?
Imagine if it were possible. What would a post-war Palestinian resolution to the Gaza conflict actually look like? Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist Thomas L Friedman games that out for Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Friedman breaks it down. "Two stages. First stage is the UAE, Egypt and Jordan agree to send troops to Gaza to provide security in a transition after Israel would pull back with American logistical help." Friedman also lays out what the Palestinians themselves would have to do to ensure an enduring peace. "And the thing that the Palestinians would do is I believe reconvene the PLO, the umbrella, the sole legitimate organization, which means the umbrella organization to legitimate to nominate a Palestinian government of technocrats."Watch full episode here: How the Israel-Gaza war could end - if Netanyahu wants it to
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
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A Palestinian woman reacts to an Israeli airstrike amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on March 3, 2024.
Israel no-shows Gaza ceasefire talks
On Sunday, Israel boycotted talks in Cairo after Hamas rejected its demand for a list of hostages who still remain alive, though other parties carried on. Hope for a Gaza cease-fire is fading despite earlier US optimism that a deal was possible ahead of next week’s Ramadan deadline.
On Saturday, a US official told reporters that Israel had agreed to the framework of a deal and "the onus right now is on Hamas” to respond. But in addition to the rejected demand for a hostage list, the proposal does not meet Hamas’ main demand for a permanent end to the war, and a Palestinian official told Reuters the deal was ”not there yet” after Hamas officials arrived in Cairo.
Meanwhile, at least 15 children have starved to death in northern Gaza, according to health authorities, raising fears of mass famine. The United States air-dropped aid into the enclave on Saturday, but not at any scale that can solve the problem: The operation dropped some 38,000 meals, while over 2 million Gazans need food. US Vice President Kamala Harris called for Israel to allow more aid into Gaza on Sunday, ahead of a visit from Israeli war cabinet member Benny Gantz — a visit which could add complications.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly dressed down Gantz — his political rival — over the latter’s “unauthorized” upcoming trip to Washington. Gantz claims his meetings with Harris on Monday and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday will strengthen ties between the two countries and gain support for Israel’s ground campaign.
But Netanyahu loyalists see it as a power play — President Joe Biden’s relationship with Netanyahu is reportedly at a low point – and accuse Gantz of acting like a “Trojan horse.” We’ll be watching his reception in Washington and the reaction in Jerusalem.