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First Round - Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia - January 21, 2020 China's Peng Shuai in action during the match against Japan's Nao Hibino
How is China dealing with its biggest #MeToo case?
Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai’s disappearance after accusing a former high-ranking government official of sexual assault has prompted public outcry in countries around the world, and the Women’s Tennis Association to boycott China. But in her native country, those allegations were scrubbed from the internet. What does the episode have to tell us about official attitudes towards the #MeToo movement, and threats to Communist Party elites in China? We talked to Eurasia Group analyst Allison Sherlock to get a better understanding of Beijing’s reaction, and what might happen next.
Why such a heavy-handed response?
Beijing has historically been hostile to feminist activism, and has censored other #MeToo statements over the past three years. But some high-profile harassment and assault cases have made it to court or become the subject of public discussion, allowing some room for a fledgling #MeToo movement to develop. In September, a Beijing court rejected a sexual assault case brought against a prominent television host, which galvanized online awareness of the issue.
But Peng’s case was even more serious because it accused a senior party leader, Zhang Gaoli, who was the party secretary of Tianjin at the time of the first alleged assault. Later he became executive vice premier on the top Politburo Standing Committee, making him the seventh-ranked official in China.
Though it’s not unheard of for the government to acknowledge wrongdoing by top officials — as when Zhou Yongkang was imprisoned for corruption in 2015 — it is unlikely Beijing will do so in Zhang’s case. Such a move would invite unwelcome scrutiny of elite transgressions by an official who recently served under President Xi Jinping, at a time when Xi is preparing to secure a norm-defying third term as leader at the 20th CCP Congress next fall.
How successful has the censorship campaign been?
China’s vast information control apparatus quickly sprang into action by deleting Peng’s initial social media post on 2 November and has attempted to take down any related posts since then. Yet at times the censors have struggled to keep up. Peng's initial post circulated widely on social media before it was taken down. Since then, various posts about Peng or the unprecedented decision by the WTA to suspend events in China have briefly appeared. These have provided short windows of opportunity for public comment, and savvy social media users have worked to disguise their related posts or messages.
From the comments that have been captured, it is clear Peng's case has struck a chord with individuals invested in China’s #MeToo movement.
What happens next?
Beijing’s external propaganda outlets have made some attempts to dismiss the controversy. They have tried to convince the rest of the world that Peng is fine by sharing what appeared to be carefully stage-managed messages, photos, and calls that present her as going about her normal life. Domestically, however, censors will continue to suppress all discussion of the issue. Even Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian's criticism of foreign efforts to "politicize" Peng's allegations have been scrubbed from the record, highlighting the unusual nature of this situation. Chinese authorities have often seized on what they refer to as foreign interference in their affairs to stoke nationalist sentiment at home and rally support for the government, but Beijing will even avoid this tactic and maintain silence on the issue.
This information blackout will extend to the WTA boycott. Fortunately for Chinese officials, the country’s strict COVID policies are a convenient excuse they can offer to domestic audiences for why scheduled WTA matches will no longer be taking place.
For the international community, much of the focus will be on the extent of the political and financial fallout suffered by the WTA, the first international sporting organization to willingly sacrifice access to the huge Chinese market to stand up for human rights. Up until now, most have shown themselves willing to make compromises to maintain this access.
What about the Olympics?
Peng’s case will fuel more calls for boycotts and other actions at the February Winter Olympics in Beijing to protest human rights abuses in China. Several Western countries led by the US have already announced a diplomatic boycott. The International Olympic Committee — under pressure to show it is taking Peng’s allegations seriously — has held a couple of video calls with the tennis star and reported to the world that she is doing well, although the WTA has said there is no independent verification that Peng’s appearances were not coerced. At the Games, athletes could express their support for Peng in interviews, on clothing and on banners, to name just a few possibilities. The issue is almost certain to come up in foreign media coverage of the event.
What will happen to Peng?
The tennis star is not the first celebrity to disappear from public view in recent years. Through a combination of threats, coverage blackouts by state media, and subsequent self-censorship, authorities can silence public figures. But Peng’s international stature could spare her from a long banishment. Her public return, if it ever happens, will likely be delayed at least until after the Olympics, where global attention will be focused on China and its athletes. But she may never return to the international tennis circuit.
Allison Sherlock is China associate at Eurasia Group.
The WTA ditches China over Peng. Is an Olympic boycott next?
The Women’s Tennis Association this week decided to suspend all tournaments in China, over doubts that the country’s star player Peng Shuai is safe and sound. Peng recently disappeared for three weeks after accusing a former Vice Premier of sexual assault. Although she has since resurfaced, telling the International Olympic Committee that she’s fine and just wants a little privacy, there are still concerns that Peng has been subjected to intimidation by the Chinese state.
The WTA, which wants to be able to interview Peng outside of China, says it’s putting principle above profit in a country where it reportedly has more than $100 million on the line. The NBA, by contrast, which has been famously reluctant to criticize China, has operations there worth some $5 billion. (Spot the difference?)
The decision by the WTA — the first major sports organization to ditch China over human rights questions — will add momentum to longstanding calls for a boycott of the upcoming Winter Olympics in Beijing, despite the International Olympic Committee’s “unanimous conclusion” that Peng is fine.
Until now, the Olympic boycott campaign has focused chiefly on China’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. But Peng Shuai attaches name recognition, star power, and a courageous personal story to the issue in a way that could galvanize wider awareness and pressure. Influential global tennis superstars like Serena Williams and Novak Djoković have already praised the WTA's decision, and trending hashtags abound.
The Biden administration, for its part, says it is considering a “diplomatic boycott,” in which top officials would not travel to the Games. Britain and Canada have floated similar ideas, but to actually keep their athletes from competing would be a major escalation. The US hasn’t done so since boycotting the 1980 Moscow Summer Games over the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan a year earlier.
The boycott dilemma. Doubtless a boycott by the world’s largest economy — and perennial top medalist at the Games — would be a blow to China’s prestige. But in addition to considering the impact on athletes, Washington would also need to answer an important global political question: how many other countries — particularly smaller ones wary of angering a cash-flush China — would actually follow suit?
Biden wants the world to believe that “America is Back” — but if the US stands up with a boycott that few others follow, it could look like an own-goal.
Peng Shuai, China's tennis star, appears safe but questions remain
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Peng Shuai's public appearance, El Salvador's "Bitcoin City," and Americans' Thanksgiving celebrations.
Why has China silenced its famous tennis player, Peng Shuai?
Well, they haven't completely silenced her in the sense that the head of the IOC, the International Olympic Committee with Beijing Olympics coming up, basically told the Chinese government, "hey, what is the absolute minimum that you can do so that we can get Beijing Olympics back on track?" And they did the absolute minimum, which was a half an hour phone call with her that felt like kind of a hostage phone call. But nonetheless, she says that she is fine and is private and doesn't want to talk about the fact that she had accused the former Vice Premier of sexually assaulting her. That is a fairly heady charge. It was clear, going to get a lot of headlines in the run-up to the Olympics. And she wasn't heard from after that. So big problem for the Chinese in the run-up to the Olympics.
What's the deal with the planned "Bitcoin City" in El Salvador?
Where they announced they're going to have this city, that's going to be financed by Bitcoin and it's going to be powered by a volcano and that's how they're going to do the mining in El Salvador. The first country in the world that is moving towards Bitcoin as currency, because they want to get away from their peg to the dollar. And because they're having a problem with the ability to get any more money from the IMF. It's hugely popular. This President, Bukele who has about 90% approval, young guy, kind of a tech bro, calls himself CEO of El Salvador, as opposed to President, whatever. This is really just a bet on Bitcoin. He is literally betting the future of the country on the notion that Bitcoin is going to go to the moon. And we all know that's not true, that's Dogecoin, right? But anyway, I wouldn't be playing casino with my national bank reserves, but I'm not CEO of El Salvador. So let's see how that works out for him.
It's Thanksgiving week in the US this week. This year, what should Americans be thankful for?
How about those of us that ordered turkey early? Huh? Yeah. Be thankful about that. Because we got those turkeys. When the people that didn't get their act together, they're going to get stupid scrawny turkey. You're going to get pork. You're going to get lamb. It's going to be horrible. But hey, we're with family, with friends, we're getting through COVID and I'm glad we're all here.
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What We're Watching: Chinese tennis star reappears, Bulgarian president re-elected, US Fed chief renominated
Is Peng Shuai really safe? The Women's Tennis Association has said that Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai's video call with the International Olympic Committee (IOC) on Sunday does not sufficiently address concerns about her safety and whereabouts. Peng disappeared from public life several weeks ago after accusing former Chinese Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli of sexually assaulting her. Over the weekend, Chinese state media published photos of her at a restaurant and a tennis tournament, and she held a half-hour call with the IOC in which she said she was fine and asked for privacy. But no one can be sure that Peng wasn't coerced into making those statements. The WTA, which has threatened to pull tournaments out of China, continues to call for a full investigation into Peng's allegations, and the story is adding fresh impetus to calls for nations around the world to boycott the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympics.
Bulgaria's president wins re-election. Rumen Radev, a political independent and anti-corruption crusader, won a second five-year term as president after trouncing his opponent Anastas Gerdzhikov, who was backed by the center-right GERB party of long-serving former PM Boyko Borissov. Although the Bulgarian presidency is largely ceremonial, Radev's victory could ease more than six months of political chaos: the country has held three different parliamentary elections this year, with a different winner each time. The victor of the most recent one, held last week, was "Change Continues," an anti-corruption alliance founded by two US-educated entrepreneurs just two months ago. Radev is close to "Change Continues," but the party still needs to hammer together a coalition. A little political stability would be a good thing as Bulgaria struggles with one of the worst COVID waves — and lowest vaccination rates — in Europe.
Powell is renominated to head the Fed. US President Joe Biden will renominate Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve for another four years. Tapping Powell, who has bipartisan support, avoids a political fight during the confirmation hearings and preserves continuity as the US economy struggles with the worst inflation rates in decades. The move will stoke tension with progressive Democrats, who wanted a nominee tougher on banks and more responsive to the economic impacts of climate change. Their preferred choice, Lael Brainard, will serve as vice-chair. Powell, who was first nominated by Trump, has a tough job ahead of him: inflation is soaring thanks to some combination of post-pandemic bottlenecks, high government spending (which will spike again as a new infrastructure plan moves forward), and low interest rates. But keeping inflation in check is just one of the Fed's jobs. Another is to maximize employment. Some 20 months after the first US lockdowns, millions of workers have yet to return to the labor force.