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Anti Polexit banner is seen during 'We're staying in EU' demonstration at the Main Square in Krakow, Poland on October 10, 2021.
What We're Watching: EU-Poland judicial fight, Turkey joins Haiti prez murder probe, Pfizer’s COVID pill deal
EU vs Poland (yes, again). The EU's top court on Tuesday ruled that Poland's recent judicial reforms, which give the government leeway to appoint sympathetic justices, violate EU rule-of-law norms. Warsaw claims that its own constitutional court has already decided that Polish law supersedes EU law, so the stalemate continues. The EU and Poland have been fighting over this issue for years, but Brussels has recently begun showing its frustration with Poland — and Hungary too — over these issues. While the "illiberal" governments of both countries are popular, the EU also knows that most Hungarians and Poles want to stay in the 27-member union, and Brussels' ability to delay badly-needed EU pandemic relief money is a strong point of leverage. Defying Brussels is already starting to get expensive for Warsaw — in a separate judicial dispute, the EU is fining Poland 1 million euros ($1.1 million) per day until it abides by the bloc's rule-of-law norms.
Haiti's presidential assassination investigation goes global. Turkey has arrested a Haitian businessman of Jordanian origin allegedly connected to the plot to kill Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse last July. The suspect — detained in Istanbul en route to Jordan from the US — has been linked to a Florida-based doctor with Haitian roots who reportedly wanted to return to Haiti and assume the presidency after Moïse's death. More than 40 suspects have been arrested so far, including several Haitian security personnel and Colombian mercenaries. Although we still don't know who ordered the hit, the most plausible theory is that wealthy Haitians living abroad hired professionals to do the job. Meanwhile, Haiti itself remains mired in the political chaos that followed Moïse's assassination. With a weak government, gangsters like the notorious Monsieur Barbecue, Haiti's most powerful mobster, are now running the show in the chronically unstable Caribbean nation.
Pfizer's COVID pill plans. US drug manufacturer Pfizer will allow its experimental COVID treatment pill to be produced and sold in 95 developing nations that are home to more than half of the world's population. The deal is part of a UN-backed, for-profit consortium. Pfizer says that as long as COVID remains a WHO-designated public health emergency, it won't charge royalties for the pill, which clinical trials show reduces the risk of COVID hospitalization or death by 89 percent. While the treatment is still good news, inequality in access to COVID vaccines and treatments persists, with numerous issues outstanding — from pharma patent issues, to global production supply deals, to local drug production capacity. Still, having cheaper access to effective treatment is a big deal for the countries on Pfizer's list, most of which have very low vaccination rates and weak healthcare capacity.Africa’s vaccine cloning gamble
Less than a year after the world started putting COVID vaccines into people's arms, most regions have immunized at least half their populations, but Africa still lags behind. With industrialized nations hoarding jabs and the COVAX facility faltering, barely five percent of the African population is fully vaccinated.
Some enterprising South African scientists are now making a bold bid to change that, with an experiment that could benefit not only Africa's 54 nations and billion people, but the entire world: Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines, a Cape Town-based startup, has developed a plan to reverse-engineer Moderna's mRNA shot and manufacture it for priority distribution on the continent.
How are they going to do it? The ingredients in Moderna's vaccine "recipe" are mostly publicly available — the trick is to figure out what to do with them. It's like having all the ingredients and measurements to bake a cake, but only vague instructions for each step.
Given that the Moderna vaccine was developed with US taxpayer money, lawyers are still figuring out which aspects of the process belong solely to the company. But that may be moot for now: the company says it won't sue, leaving Afrigen apparently in the clear to go ahead.
Cloning an mRNA vaccine would be a huge win for South Africa. It would be the equivalent of the moon landing in terms of accomplishment and prestige for a nation that too often grabs headlines for all the wrong reasons. Moreover, the project is backed and funded by the World Health Organization, so if the code is cracked, the formula would be made available to all as a public good across the whole continent and the wider developing world.
A highly effective yet affordable jab that can be manufactured anywhere could be a game-changer to stop more contagious COVID variants from emerging where the population is still unvaccinated. What's more, the sky's the limit when it comes to mRNA's potential to create vaccines against other diseases endemic to Africa such as Ebola, less infectious but way deadlier than COVID.
But don't get too excited just yet. The startup says it'll take up to a year to reverse-engineer Moderna's jab. Also, getting the formula right is only one piece of the puzzle. Afrigen would then need to figure out how to mass-produce, store, and deliver the vaccine around a continent with often poor infrastructure, not to mention getting raw materials at a moment when global supply chains are already stretched thin.
There's a political angle too. In the US, the Biden administration wants Moderna to sell more vaccines to COVAX at cost, and is facing growing criticism for treating the company with kid gloves after ignoring Biden's call to boost production for low-income countries despite Uncle Sam being Moderna's research sugar daddy.
Meanwhile, public health advocates are urging the National Institutes of Health to force Moderna to give up its secret sauce, and calling out the US government for paying lip service to waiving patents and global vaccine equity while not pushing the drugmakers harder to share their tech or prioritize supply for countries with low vaccination rates.
Technically, the Biden administration has some leverage because the White House bankrolled Moderna's vaccine research through the NIH and Operation Warp Speed. But twisting Moderna's arm would be a hard sell for the US government, traditionally reticent to meddle with Big Pharma and with little to gain (politically at home) from vaccinating other countries.
Moderna, for its part, says that right now it's better for the company to expand production itself than to share its tech because scaling up production in Africa will take too long. More broadly, it's also playing a longer game of aiming to dominate the post-COVID mRNA manufacturing landscape along with Pfizer.
No one knows if reverse-engineering mRNA COVID vaccines will work, but then again no one's tried before. Still, the upshot is that there's a huge opportunity despite uncertainty about the science, the business of producing the jab, and the politics behind it all.
NBA player sparks backlash from China; Bolsonaro's COVID negligence
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at the NBA's latest rift with China, Brazil's Senate investigation, and COVID booster shots.
China wipes Boston Celtics from NBA broadcast after the "Free Tibet" speech from Enes Kanter. Is NBA boxing itself into a corner?
Nice mixed sports metaphor there. NBA has some challenges because they are of course the most progressive on political and social issues in the United States among sports leagues, but not when it comes to China, their most important international market. And you've seen that with LeBron James telling everyone about we need to learn better from the Communist Party on issues like Hong Kong and how Daryl Morey got hammered for taking his stance in favor of Hong Kong democracy. Well, Enes Kanter's doing the same thing and he's a second-string center. Didn't even play yesterday and still the Chinese said that they were not going to air any Boston Celtics games. Why? Because he criticized the Chinese government and had some "Free Tibet" sneakers. This is a real problem for a lot of corporations out there, but particularly publicly, the NBA. Watch for a bunch of American politicians to make it harder for the NBA going forward, saying how dare you kowtow to the Chinese when you're all about "Black Lives Matter" inside the United States. No fun.
Brazil's Senate committee accused President Bolsonaro of crimes against humanity for COVID-19 negligence. What's happening there?
Well, they did actually consider accusing him of genocide. They chose not to do that, probably because someone looked into the definition of genocide and realized that that was really stupid. Certainly this is going to make a lot of headlines in Brazil. It's embarrassing for Bolsonaro. None of it's going to pass into law. None of it's going to lead to him being incarcerated or sent to The Hague, but it is one more thing, along with energy price spikes because of drought and their reliance on hydro, because of the economy not doing very well. His popularity right now is in the toilet. It's around 30% and they've got elections next year. Very unlikely that Bolsonaro is able to win. That's the real importance here, is his days are numbered.
FDA is set to approve the "mix and match" approach for COVID booster shots in the US. Will this deepen global vaccine inequality?
I don't know if it would deepen it, but it's going to extend it in the sense that we in the United States have been saying publicly that the vaccine..., this pandemic is not over anywhere until it's over everywhere, which is a great thing to say. But of course it's not in any way true in terms of the way we act. The way we act is as long as we've got our Moderna, we've got our Pfizer and we've got our boosters, we get to live like normal again. While around the world, most of the lower-developed countries haven't even gotten their first shot yet. That's the reality around the world. And that's driving much greater mistrust between wealthy countries and poor countries. At the same time, we have our own political differences that are growing inside the United States.
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Why CIA director Bill Burns met with the Taliban
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on the CIA director's secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban, the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan, and the future of vaccine mandates following the FDA's approval of Pfizer's COVID vaccine.
CIA director Bill Burns held a secret meeting with the leader of the Taliban. How will it impact the ongoing evacuations?
Well, at the very least, you have to think that America's top priority, ensuring that all Americans get out of Afghanistan, given that the US controls nothing on the ground but Kabul Airport, will be facilitated. I would think that that was the reason for him to be there, absolute top priority. That has been successful. If it was a failure, we would've heard something about it by now, and the situation on the ground would be quite different. That is very different though than what happens after August 31st, and whether or not all of the Afghan nationals working with the Americans and in physical danger are going to be let out. So far, I haven't heard that from the Taliban. Certainly that will be a big piece of the negotiations. But better that he's there than not.
What do you expect to come from the G7 emergency meeting on Afghanistan on Tuesday?
Well, this is interesting because the Brits, who are chairing the G7 this year, really want to ensure that everyone gets out, and that means all the Afghans that have been working with the coalition forces. That means you have the ability to extend beyond August 31st, which President Biden has certainly not said he's been able to do and the Taliban forces have not said they'd agree to. We'll see where it goes. This is going to be a much more contentious G7 than what we saw in Cornwall a couple of months ago, and it'll be very interesting to see whether we have anything like the kind of statements from the Germans, from the French, the Brits criticizing the Biden administration after today's meeting that we did over the last week on Afghanistan. A lot of damage control will be done by President Biden in today's summit.
With FDA approval, are vaccine mandates imminent?
They're happening, and they will ramp up. There are a lot of companies that are going to feel much more comfortable requiring vaccines now that they've been fully approved. Pfizer Comirnaty, the name of their vaccine now, has been approved by the FDA. I also think that a lot of skeptics in the United States will get more comfortable because this was an emergency authorization before, and now it is a fully-approved vaccination the way others that we take, that our children take, have been for decades and decades. I'm hoping that it means good things for the United States in relatively short order. Certainly the numbers of vaccinations over the last couple days, also driven by Delta variant, also going up.
Let's learn from COVID to prevent the next pandemic
Days before G7 leaders meet in the UK to talk about how to "build back better" after the pandemic, experts are warning them that they should not lose sight of the opportunity to learn from the experience of COVID to be more prepared when the next public crisis hits. Below are a few insights from a livestream discussion between political leaders, policy makers, health experts and scientists, entitled Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security, hosted by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering.
It's time to not just move on, but rather think carefully about pre-empting future pandemics by bolstering health security, said Noubar Afeyan, co-founder of Modern and CEO of the Flagship Pioneering venture capital firm. That would be the best way, he explained, to do justice to the global calls for "never again." For Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, the window of opportunity to rally the global cooperation that was virtually absent during the worst of the pandemic is closing fast.
Science journalist Laurie Garrett blasted global leadership, especially in countries like Brazil and India, for making the pandemic worse with their politicized responses, and for underplaying the importance of preventive public health. Many governments, she pointed out, obliterated their own public health capacity by putting politics first, for instance in the US by demonizing experts such as Dr. Anthony Fauci and weaponizing the probe into the origins of COVID to blame China.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis offered the lessons Greece has learned from dealing with a massive public health crisis barely after recovering from an economic depression. Mitsotakis also came out in support of the EU's decision to procure vaccines as a bloc over "solidarity," and anticipated that very soon people who still don't want to get vaccinated will realize their lives will become much easier when they agree to get the jab.
For his part, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla defended his company's opposition to waiving vaccine patents because the doses are for all — rich or poor, east or west — and that the only reason they can't produce more is because not enough raw materials are now available. Pfizer, he added, is looking into expanding mRNA technology to develop better flu vaccines, those that can boost the immune system to fight non-communicable diseases like cancer, and illnesses that stem from genetic mutations.
Other key moments of the program:
- Former US Homeland Security chief Jeh Johnson on a possible COVID commission in the US Congress
- Partners in Health founder Paul Farmer on why only former colonial powers are against lifting vaccine patents,
- Dame Sally Davies, England's former chief medical officer, on why we need to think differently about pandemic data
- Partnership for a Healthier America CEO Nancy Roman on the importance of nutrition in preventing unnecessary deaths in any public health crisis
- Lord Ara Darzi (Flagship Pioneering) on why governments need to take public health threats as seriously as national security
- Lovisa Afzelius (Flagship Pioneering) on why we should care about the Global Pathogen Shield.
Watch the second part of the series, Stronger Partnerships for a Healthier World: Mutually Assured Protection, which was recorded live on Wednesday, June 9.
This live event series was produced by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering. We thank our event partners, Partnership for a Healthier America and Medtronic.
Watch our live event: global health beyond the pandemic
Could the biggest health crisis of our lifetimes actually lead to a healthier world? Watch the second part of our live event series about what public health will look like after the COVID-19 pandemic, presented in partnership with Flagship Pioneering, the bio-platform company that founded Moderna and dozens of other life sciences firms.
Days before world leaders G7 meeting, we will bring political leaders and policy makers together with health experts and scientists to discuss lessons learned from and the latest innovations to preempt both COVID-19 variants and future infectious disease pandemics.
Attendance is free and open to the public. Please register to attend.
The virtual event will be hosted by Noubar Afeyan, founder & CEO of Flagship Pioneering, and Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.
Tuesday, June 8, 2021 | 11 AM - 12:30 PM ET (recording available)
- Beyond the Pandemic: A Radical New Approach to Health Security: As the world emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic, what are the lessons learned and how can we use them to not only prepare for, but also preempt the next pandemic? On day one, speakers will discuss new and powerful ways to combat the wide range of threats to our health, including preventing variants and future infectious disease pandemics, and tackling 'slow-burn' pandemics such as obesity and chronic disease. CNBC's Meg Tirrell will moderate the conversation.
Wednesday, June 9, 2021 | 11 AM - 12:30 PM ET
- Stronger Partnerships for a Healthier World: Mutually Assured Protection: On day two, we'll focus on the need for greater collaboration between governments, international institutions, and the private sector in order to get beyond sick care and create a world where we secure and protect people's health by postponing if not preventing disease, and by promoting good health and wellbeing. Bloomberg TV anchor Shery Ahn will moderate the conversation.
Speakers include:
Kyriakos Mitsotakis
Prime Minister of Greece
Kristalina Georgieva
Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
Stéphane Bancel
CEO, Moderna Therapeutics
Agnes Binagwaho
Vice Chancellor, University of Global Health Equity
Geoff Martha
Chairman & CEO, Medtronic
Nancy Roman
President and CEO, Partnership for a Healthier America
Paul Farmer
Professor, Harvard Medical School; Co-founder, Partners In Health
Gargee Ghosh
President, Global Policy & Advocacy, Gates Foundation
Amitabh Chandra
Professor, Director of Health Policy Research, Harvard Kennedy School
Sally Davies
GCB DBE, Master of Trinity College
Laurie Garrett
Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist
Jeh Johnson
Partner, Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP; former Secretary of Homeland Security (2013 - 2017)
Albert Bourla
CEO, Pfizer
Noubar Afeyan
President & Founder, Flagship Pioneering
Ian Bremmer
President & Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
Additional speakers include:
- Junaid Bajwa, Chief Medical Scientist, Microsoft
- Matt Hancock, UK Health Secretary
- James Stavridis, Admiral, USN (Ret), former Supreme Allied Commander at NATO
- Sundar Raman, President, Global Home Care and P&G Professional, Procter & Gamble
- Greg Behar, CEO, Nestle Health Sciences
This event is produced by GZERO Media in partnership with Flagship Pioneering. We thank our event partners, Partnership for a Healthier America and Medtronic.
The race to vaccinate: Dr. Atul Gawande provides perspective
Can the US vaccinate enough of its population to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths before new and more contagious COVID-19 variants take hold? And will these vaccines even be effective against more adaptable mutations of the virus? Surgeon and public health expert Dr. Atul Gawande, most recently of the Biden/Harris COVID-19 Transition Task Force, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss the latest in the global effort to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic. He also explains why people should get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine if offered the chance, despite its lower overall efficacy rate compared to the mRNA-based vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.
Podcast: The Race to Vaccinate: Dr. Atul Gawande Provides Perspective
Listen: Can the United States vaccinate enough of its population to prevent hundreds of thousands of deaths before new and more contagious COVID-19 variants take hold? And will these vaccines even be effective against more adaptable mutations of the virus? Surgeon and public health expert Dr. Atul Gawande, most recently of the Biden/Harris COVID-19 Transition Task Force, joins the podcast to discuss the latest in the global effort to vaccinate our way out of this pandemic. He also explains why people should get the Johnson & Johnson vaccine if offered the chance, despite its lower overall efficacy rate compared to the mRNA-based vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.