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Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk gestures while speaking during the weekly Ministerial meeting in Warsaw.
Poland scraps right to asylum
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in recent days unilaterally suspended the right to asylum for migrants crossing into Poland from neighboring Belarus. Tusk said the move is temporary, meant to stop Russia from directing flows of migrants towards Poland in an effort to destabilize the country. In recent years, Poland and Belarus have nearly come to blows over the issue.
The decision, which has raised concerns among human rights groups, comes just before a major EU summit focused in part on crafting a coherent migration policy that balances the bloc’s supranational human rights laws with national-level concerns about rapid immigration from the Global South. In recent weeks, Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, imposed fresh border checks of its own.
Note: Tusk is no ultra-nationalist. A centrist former European Council president, Tusk was elected last year on a wave of discontent with the long-ruling, far-right Law and Justice party. But in Poland – as elsewhere in the decade since a wave of refugees from the Syrian civil war arrived – calls for tighter immigration policy have moved from the right-wing fringe to the mainstream discourse.
All of this as the numbers are actually falling. Illegal crossings detected byEU border authorities fell 42% in the first nine months of 2024, compared to the same period last year, authorities say. Migrant voyages via the Mediterranean fell drastically, but they in fact rose along eastern routes into the Czech Republic and Poland.
Looking ahead: EU leaders will meet to discuss the issue on Wednesday and Thursday.Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris shakes hands with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky, as they meet in the Vice President's Ceremonial Office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House campus in Washington, on Sept. 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: US sends billions to Ukraine, Poland’s PM takes aim at beavers, NYC adopts new tool to battle rats, Japan finds longtime death row inmate innocent
120,000: You’ve heard of the war on drugs, the war on poverty, the war on terror. But what about the war on beavers? Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is publicly blaming the country’s 120,000 beavers for exacerbating the deadly floods that battered central Europe and killed at least 16. Tusk called on Poles to “do whatever” to protect dikes, after saying beaver dams can damage riverbanks and weaken levees. “Beaver experts” (yes, they’re a thing) say that only a small percentage are problematic and that their dams can actually help slow river flows.
12: Speaking of a war on rodents, New York City is getting a new tool for its war on rats (a war it’s always losing). The city council passed a bill introducing rat contraceptives in a 12-month pilot problem. The bill’s sponsor, Council Member Shaun Abreu, says, “We can’t poison our way out of the rat problem, but we can certainly do a lot of damage trying.”
46: The world’s longest-serving death row inmate — Japan’s Iwao Hakamada — was acquitted after decades in solitary confinement for the alleged murders of his boss, the man’s wife, and their children. After 46 years of living on death row, he was freed in 2014 and granted a retrial. That trial has now proven that investigators fabricated the original evidence used against him. Japan and the United States are the only members of the G7 who still use the death penalty.Prime Minister Narendra Modi emplanes for two-nation state visit to Poland and Ukraine, in New Delhi on Wednesday.
India’s Modi makes first-ever visit to Kyiv
India’s balancing act. New Delhi has long-standing economic and military ties to Moscow and has called for diplomacy but refused to condemn the invasion. India continues to buy Russian oil at a discount.
But India is also an important ally of the United States, owing to their shared concerns about China. Modi’s visit to Kyiv is meant in part to ease concerns in Washington while also showing Russia that he has his own prerogatives. Putin will not love the fact that Modi is in Kyiv while Ukraine still occupies Russian territory and is swarming Moscow with drones.
Could India make progress towards peace? It’s a long shot. The US, and especially China, are better equipped to offer the necessary economic and security guarantees. Still, India will play an important supporting role in any settlement. Modi’s trip is at least partly about exploring what that might be.Servicemen of the 24th King Daniel of Galicia Separate Mechanized Brigade are firing a mortar at the positions of Russian troops near Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region, Ukraine, on August 14, 2024.
A buffer for Ukraine, new tensions with Belarus?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that Ukraine’s military operation in Russia’s Kursk regionaims to establish a buffer zone to prevent further attacks by Moscow. Since Aug. 6, Ukrainian forces havedestroyed two key bridges and disrupted Russian supply lines. Further south, there has also been“intense military activity” near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, with the UN’s nuclear watchdog warning of deteriorating safety conditions.
For its part, Russia dismissed reports that Ukraine’s shock attack on Kurskderailed discussions on halting strikes near energy facilities. The Washington Post had claimed that delegations were set to meet in Qatar to negotiate a partial cease-fire, but Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied the existence of any talks.
Is Belarus next? On Sunday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed thata third of his country’s armed forces have been deployed along its border with Ukraine. Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Minsk’s move was in response to Ukraine’s “aggressive policy” of stationing over 120,000 troops on its side of the border. Lukashenko also said the Belarusian-Ukrainian border is heavily mined.
Ukrainian officials downplayed the situation. Andriy Demchenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s border service,denied seeing any increase in Belarusian units or equipment at the border and criticized Lukashenko for “constantly escalating the situation with regularity to please the terrorist country.” We’re watching whether Belarus is bluffing, or whether this could open up another front in the war — and what moving the frontline to Belarus would mean for NATO allies like Poland.
Election 2024: Are American allies worried about the US presidential election?
What do NATO allies think of conversations among US voters about President Biden’s age and ability to serve a second term? Are they worried a second Trump presidency will negatively impact the war in Ukraine? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in DC for his take on a potential second Biden or Trump administration. Sikorksi says Poland will have a partner and ally in whoever ends up in the Oval Office.
“Once you start interfering in the internal party, political affairs of other countries, you’re on a very slippery slope,” Sikorski warns, “Poland wants to have the best possible relations with the US, whoever is your president goes without saying.”
Despite concerns from Democratic voters about Biden’s stamina and cognitive abilities, Sikorski says that at a recent summit, he found Biden “focused, strategic, and actually quite amusing.” He also notes that the Polish government has good relations with both candidates and disputes the idea that a second Trump term would limit further US aid to Ukraine. He concedes that Donald Trump was right on many issues, like the necessity of all NATO members to meet requirements for defense spending. Ultimately, Trump responds to strength and power, and accepting defeat or a settlement on Putin’s terms in Ukraine may not align with the image he wants to project on the global stage.
Watch the full episode: Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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Ukraine can still win this war, says Poland's FM
Do NATO allies have the strength, patience, and unity to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to win the war and defeat Russia? According to Poland’s Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, the answer is a resounding yes. On GZERO World, Sikorski sat down with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of NATO’s 75th-anniversary summit in Washington, DC, to talk about NATO’s strength, Putin’s missteps, and why continuing to send crucial military and economic assistance to Kyiv is a top priority for western allies and the future of NATO.
“Ukraine is heroically defending us before this evil man at a cost to us of less than 1% of our GDP,” Sikorski explains, “We can afford this."
Sikorski says that despite rogue alliance members like Hungary’s Victor Orbán, NATO remains united and is “back to basics” in its original mission of repelling an aggressive Russia. Bremmer and Sikorski also discuss Ukraine’s ongoing challenges, such as ensuring Kyiv can keep sending weapons and new troops to the front lines. Sikorski remains optimistic that Ukraine will prevail and win the war, with the help of Western allies and NATO, particularly Poland, which has taken in almost a million Ukrainian refugees and is helping train troops to NATO standards.
Bremmer pushed Sikorski on his conviction that Ukraine would win, pointing out that a potential second Donald Trump administration could severely limit further military assistance for Kyiv and the sheer amount of force required to get all of Ukraine’s territory back just isn’t available, but Sikorski held firm in his conviction.
“There is never a shortage of pocket Chamberlains willing to give up other people’s land or freedom for their own peace of mind,” Sikorski said, “I think we can win this one.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Ukraine will define the future of NATO ›
- Does NATO need to be “Trump-proofed”? ›
- NATO’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific ›
- Ian Explains: Why Biden is the focus of the NATO Summit ›
- NATO Summit: Biden's uncertain future worries US allies ›
- Czech president Petr Pavel: Ukraine war fatigue weakening NATO unity against Russia - GZERO Media ›
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit | GZERO World
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is undermining Western unity at the NATO Summit
Is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán undermining Europe and Western unity following this year’s critical NATO summit? Just days after Hungary’s nationalist leader met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Orbán left the NATO 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC to visit former president Donald Trump, a well-known critic of the alliance, at his Mar-A-Lago estate.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on the sidelines of the summit to ask how NATO members deal with a renegade ally like Hungary and the challenges posed by Orbán’s coziness with authoritarian rulers. Orbán’s rogue trips are a sharp contrast with NATO’s unified stance, on full display at the summit, but Sikorski insists Orbán doesn’t represent the EU or NATO.
“Orbán is freelancing on behalf of Hungary, and that’s not a new thing,” Sikorski says, “He’s been denying Ukraine transit of defense goods, he’s also been vetoing the release of European money for Ukraine.”
Hungary also has a complicated history when it comes to its international borders, and Sikorski worries about any leader who is willing to redraw a border using force, rather than diplomacy. He says any negotiated settlement in Ukraine should be negotiated by the Ukrainians, and warns that thinking a partitioned Ukraine is inevitable is similar to the UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s strategy of appeasing Adolf Hitler in the lead-up to WWII.
“We can win this one,” Sikorski insists, “The Russians have advantage in tanks, but the Ukrainians have advantage in drones.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).