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Ohio Election
Hard Numbers: A loss for the GOP in Ohio, Poland beefs up border, shark attacks in Gotham, chips fall well for Dresden, Chinese parents swipe for their kids
57: In what’s broadly seen as a bellwether vote, 57% of Ohio voters this week rejected a measure, known as Issue 1, that would make it harder to amend the state constitution. This was broadly seen as a win for abortion rights advocates ahead of a vote in November that will seek to enshrine abortion rights (up until the point of fetal viability) in the state constitution.
1,000: Poland has sent 1,000 additional troops to the Belarusian frontier in response to a surge in illegal border crossings that Warsaw says is being driven by Belarusian border guards and mercenaries of the Wagner Group. This isn’t the first time this has happened. Back in 2021, Warsaw threw up barbed wire and dispatched troops to stop a surge of Middle Eastern and African migrants braving freezing temps to cross the border. At the time, the EU accused Belarus of deliberately stoking a migrant crisis in retaliation for fresh EU sanctions on Minsk.
20: Cue the Jaws soundtrack. New York City saw its first shark attack in decades on Tuesday, when a woman was bitten while swimming at Rockaway Beach (now cue the Ramones.) Shark attacks anywhere in the world are exceedingly rare to begin with, but to put things in perspective, this was the first one recorded in the Big Apple since Dwight Eisenhower was president, and just the 20th in nearly 200 years. The victim is expected to survive.
$3.8 billion: If there’s a single German word for “GiganticTaiwaneseSemiconductorInvestment,” you finally have an excuse to use it. Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker, is set to spend $3.8 billion on a new plant in the eastern German city of Dresden. Germany has been attracting huge investments from chipmakers in recent months as part of its bid to become a European semiconductor superpower. For more on the geopolitics of microchips, see our explainer.
181: Think it’s annoying to have your parents swipe through your love life? In China, where rates of marriage and birth are plummeting, a new industry of dating apps has sprung up for parents to match their unmarried kids with suitable spouses. For $181 you can sign up for the optimistically named service “Perfect-In-Laws.” How long does the subscription last? “Until there’s marriage.”Europe's border crisis isn't over
The crisis at the Belarusian-Polish border appears to have eased, but is far from over. Thousands of people desperate to enter the European Union remain stuck in the border zone, waiting for Poland to at least consider their asylum applications.
Where do things currently stand and what are some of the key players hoping to achieve?
Belarus' Lukashenko: Accept me as I am
President Alexander Lukashenko – affectionately known as "Europe's last dictator" – created the current crisis by facilitating dozens of flights to Minsk from refugee hotspots in Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Through an organized campaign that began in June, his government has lured thousands of migrants to Belarus with promises of eventual resettlement in the EU.
Why? By unleashing a migrant crisis, Lukashenko wanted to put pressure on Brussels to recognize his presidency, which the EU has refused to do since the strongman rigged presidential elections last year, unleashed a brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters, and hijacked an EU flight.
So far, Lukashenko's gambit hasn't worked. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made a point of referring to him as "Mr Lukashenko" rather than "President" in recent calls, which made him feel very unseen. Meanwhile, Washington and Brussels have in fact hit Minsk with more sanctions in recent weeks, though some apply to travel agencies, transportation companies and airlines that have shuttled migrants from the Middle East to Eastern Europe in recent months, rather than targeting Lukashenko and his cronies directly.
European Union: Faux outrage
Things have since settled down somewhat, with Minsk having caved to pressure to clear certain processing centers at the Polish border, as well as hit the brakes on incoming flights.
But these developments do not address the problem of what to do with the migrants who remain at the border. While some have already been sent back to Iraq, thousands remain stranded in swampy forestland, as Polish and Belarusian forces continue playing tug of war. The death toll at the border is now 10 – and climbing.
The basic problem is that six years on from the 2015 refugee crisis, the EU still does not have a coherent or effective policy on how to deal with migrants, leaving things largely, in practice, up to individual member states.
The European Commission had previously proposed a far-reaching immigration plan based on "a compulsory solidarity mechanism," which would compel each member state to host asylum seekers, as well as to share the burden of funding medical supplies and equipment at arrival zones.
But that proposal still needs to be approved unanimously in the European Council after consultation with Parliament (a very convoluted process). Stalemate persists because some state governments have opposed measures that would require countries to take in refugees and the EU remains powerless to force them.
But it's not just so-called "illiberals" in Poland and Hungary who feel this way. Data show that EU residents across the board see immigration from outside the bloc as presenting more of a "problem" (38 percent) than an "opportunity" (20 percent).
Meanwhile, migrants at the border remain in limbo. Warsaw – with support from the Polish constituency – continues to double-down on its hardline position. Human rights groups say that Poland's actions violate the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states that everyone has a right to seek asylum from persecution. But even if EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen would like Poland to deescalate, allowing at least some migrants to be processed in the EU, she continues to strongly back Warsaw in its ongoing row with Minsk.
What now? Lukashenko claims that he does not seek further confrontation with the EU, which he said would make "war unavoidable." So far, the EU is not backing down, saying the onus is on Minsk to end the current crisis.
It's increasingly clear that the EU, for its part, has no mechanism to force member states to take in migrants even as migration remains a critical issue bloc-wide, not least as a big refugee crisis is already brewing in Afghanistan.
Biden-Xi virtual summit shows breakthroughs in US-China relationship
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at his return to international travel, Joe Biden & Xi Jinping's virtual summit, and the Belarus-Poland border crisis.
How was your return to international travel?
Well, actually it was pretty straightforward. I mean, you think that you hear all these lockdowns and all these quarantines, but the fact is Singapore is incredibly efficient. The one thing that's kind of unusual is you have this app you have to put on your phone. You turn it on, you have to keep your phone on and they track you absolutely everywhere, which is pretty weird and kind of dystopian, but it works for closing down COVID. Aside from that though, no problems getting in here. No problem walking around.
Were there any breakthroughs at Biden & Xi's virtual summit?
They say there weren't any breakthroughs, but frankly, I would argue that in terms of the relationship itself, there really have been. Number one, you did get a willingness of the Americans and the Chinese to engage on climate and before they were saying no. Given that the two largest carbon emitters in the world, that's a big deal. Secondly, some agreements on how they're going to treat journalists and visas from both the countries, which had been really dysfunctional. Number three, there's going to be ongoing engagement on nuclear and security policy, high level conversations and dialogue. None of these things are like sudden big announcements that say that there is trust between two countries, but it is actually a change in trajectory in the relationship and very clearly not cold war.
What do you think of US Secretary of State Blinken suggesting that Belarus migrant crisis is an attempt to distract from Russia's increased troop presence near Ukraine?
It's plausible. Having said that, I think they can walk and chew gum at the same time, the Kremlin. And what I see is Lukashenko, President Lukashenko, is under a lot of economic pressure and he's more than happy to push, use his rogue status to make life unpleasant for the Poles, for the Lithuanians. But the Kremlin is clearly helping him. The bigger issue here I think is not the distraction on Ukraine. The bigger issue is that the Russians are sitting on a significant amount of cash because energy prices are higher, because Putin feels like he's got a lot of leverage over the Europeans on downstream energy given their problems. And as a consequence, he feels more emboldened to do all of the things that he would normally feel a little bit more cautious about. That includes Belarus. That includes Ukraine.
Migrants walk towards the Bruzgi-Kuznica Bialostocka border crossing in an attempt to cross the Belarusian-Polish border in the Grodno Region, Belarus November 15, 2021.
What We’re Watching: EU vs everyone, Austria vs the unvaccinated, India vs smog, Barbados vs real world
The EU targets "everyone!" The EU on Monday unanimously agreed to impose fresh sanctions on "everyone involved" in bringing migrants to the Belarus-Poland border, where a diplomatic and humanitarian crisis continues as thousands of asylum-seekers shiver in makeshift camps. Brussels says Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has deliberately created this crisis to strike back against existing EU sanctions that were imposed in response to his sham re-election last year and his hijacking of a RyanAir flight this summer. Reports show that Belarus loosened visa restrictions for migrants — largely from Iraq — to serve as a transit point for migrants hoping to cross the EU border to apply for asylum. Details of the new sanctions aren't yet decided, but they are likely to target political officials, travel agencies, and airlines. Lukashenko has vowed to fight back, but he won't cut off the Russian gas flows that traverse his country on the way to Europe — Vladimir Putin quickly slapped down that possibility after Lukashenko raised it over the weekend. The question remains: will EU sanctions change Belarus' behavior?
Austria's lockdown of the unvaccinated. Beginning Monday, unvaccinated Austrians will be required to stay in their homes for all but essential outings or face a fine of 500 euros ($572). The move comes as Austria suffers one of the highest rates of new COVID infections in Europe. The country currently has a vaccination rate of 65 percent, which lags behind most of Western Europe but exceeds levels in Eastern Europe, which is experiencing an even harsher wave of the virus. The Austrian measures will last for 10 days and be enforced by police spot checks. The unvaccinated were already prohibited from entering restaurants, but the government says the additional restrictions are necessary to boost vaccination rates and head off a crunch at ICUs. Critics — including the right-wing Freedom Party — say the policy is discriminatory and violates Austria's constitution.
A different sort of lockdown in India. India's Supreme Court called on Monday for an immediate lockdown of Delhi, the country's capital. But this time, the threat to public health comes not from COVID but from the toxic smog that regularly pollutes the city's air. The Delhi government has pronounced itself "ready to take steps like complete lockdown," while calling on the governments of neighboring regions to do the same. There will be no in-person classes in schools this week, government officials will work from home, and private businesses are urged to do the same. The city's many construction sites will also remain shut down for three days. Delhi suffers from the exhaust produced by millions of vehicles, crop-stubble burning by farmers, coal-fired plants on the outskirts of town, and the open burning of garbage. By some measures, India is home to 13 of the world's 14 most polluted cities, and in 2019 air pollution was blamed for more than a million deaths.
Metaverse diplomacy. What happens if you run into trouble when visiting a foreign country? You call your embassy or consulate, of course. But what if you're in the Metaverse, a catch-all phrase for the virtual and augmented reality world Mark Zuckerberg wants you to spend a lot of time in? Well, you're in luck if you're a citizen of Barbados, the first country to open an actual embassy in this virtual world. The tiny Caribbean island nation plans to build and purchase digital "land," offer e-visas to visit virtual Barbados, and develop virtual transport to move avatars to and fro. What this all means in the real world is unclear, but crypto bros are very excited about it, and we don't want to burst their bubble.Hundreds of migrants camp at the Belarus side of the border with Poland near Kuznica Bialostocka, Poland, in this photograph released by the Polish Defence Ministry, November 10, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Eastern Europe border crisis, US-China climate pledge, Bolsonaro’s a centrist now
Migrants suffer as Eastern European deadlock deepens. The stalemate at the Polish-Belarusian border continues, with reports that several migrants languishing in freezing temperatures in the forest have recently frozen to death while waiting for asylum. The EU says Minsk is using the migrants as a political weapon against Brussels international heavyweights have intervened in recent days to try t chart a path forward. German Chancellor Angela Merkel – who's just days away from her retirement — has been appealing to Russian President Vladimir Putin to use his sway with Minsk to resolve the dispute. Putin, who's no doubt enjoying his clout and leverage, says that Brussels needs to negotiate directly with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – but that has been a non-starter so far because the EU has cut off communication with the strongman since his rigged re-election last year. Feeling emboldened by the standoff, Lukashenko doubled down Thursday, saying that if the bloc slaps fresh sanctions on him, he would cut off the flow of gas that flows from Russia to Western Europe via Belarusian territory. That's a scary prospect indeed for a Europe which is already dealing with painful gas shortages as winter approaches.
US and China announce a climate "deal." It's hard to get the US and China to agree on anything these days, but climate is one area where cooperation has always seemed at least possible. In that spirit, both sides announced on Wednesday a rare joint pledge to work together on slashing carbon emissions. The statement itself was light on details on how they'll actually do just that, but it's still a big deal. Why? For one thing, the two countries are the world's top polluters, accounting for just under half of all global emissions. For another, as the two largest economies, the US and China can muster the financial muscle needed to de-carbonize themselves and help the rest of the world do it too. Even more importantly, only the US and China together have the political power to get other countries to get on board with their plans. But given that there's a host of other prickly issues in the broader US-China competition, the biggest threat to future US-China cooperation on climate is how far apart they are on pretty much everything else.
Bolsonaro the centrist? After two years without belonging to any political party, Brazil's anti-establishment, far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has decided to join the Liberal Party, one of the small parties that form the establishment Centrão ("Big Center") coalition he's been courting for over a year. Bolsonaro — who quit a right-wing party back in 2019 and has since then failed to set up his own — hopes that the centrist platform will help him appeal to more moderate voters in next year's presidential election. The president also needs political cover from multiple open probes against him in the courts and Congress, including a criminal investigation in the Senate for mishandling COVID. But mostly he can't actually run for re-election without being backed by a party, big or small. With his approval rating in the tank, Bolsonaro faces increasingly long re-election odds against his likely competitor and biggest nemesis, former president Lula da Silva.
Belarus president exploiting migrants to pressure EU on sanctions
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What's the nature of the migration crisis between Belarus and Poland?
Well, it's not a migration crisis, really. It's a question of the weaponization of the misery of people. Lukashenko wants to, sort of, exert pressure on Poland and on the European Union because of the sanctions that are imposed upon him for his undemocratic behavior. And that is importing miserable people from the Middle East, flying them into Minsk, probably at great expense to them, and then effectively forcing them over the border to Poland. That has to be stopped, and a number of measures are underway to do that. It's really an unacceptable way of exploiting people.
What's going to be the effect of Vice President Kamala Harris' visit to Paris?
Well, everyone goes to Paris. There's been a lot of effort to smooth over tensions between Paris and Washington, after the Australia submarine, messy handling of that particular deal. I think it will succeed. I think relationship between Paris and Washington are better than they look at the moment.
Record US inflation levels worsen Americans' view of the economy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at rising US inflation, the migrant crisis at the Poland-Belarus border, and the draft deal of the COP26 climate agreement.
US inflation hits its highest level in three decades. How will the Biden administration be impacted?
Well, it's not well. I mean, the economy is doing very well right now. We're getting all of these record levels in the markets. And companies have extraordinary profits, and growth is going gangbusters. So it's not stagflation. But I mean, the inflation levels on top of the fact that it's Christmas season coming up, and people are exhausted from dealing with COVID, is making people feel much worse about the economy otherwise would. I don't think we've ever seen this kind of a gap between economic reality and expectations and Biden's ability to do a lot on inflation is very limited at this point. I mean, he's pushing OPEC to produce more energy, which is a problem with the COP summit, but at the end of the day, I mean, this has a lot more to do with the massive explosion of post-COVID supply and demand growth, and all coming online at the same time. Plus labor shortages. It's not something that's easy for them to deal with. So I think it's going to be a challenge for them for months, but elections aren't for a year so the timing is not so horrible.
What's happening on the Poland-Belarus border?
Well, you've got all of these refugees that have come in from other countries around the Middle East for example, in Belarus that are being pushed by the Belarus military towards Poland. The Poland government doesn't want them. The Belarusians are happy to cause trouble. The Russians have been behind the scenes supportive and the Europeans with support from the United States will expand sanctions in relatively short order, including probably on the Belarus foreign minister, who has given these people asylum and maybe further sectoral sanctions, as well as against the folks that are leasing planes that are allowing these people to get into Belarus in the first place. This is yet another flash point between the Europeans and Minsk and more significantly Moscow because the Lukashenko government isn't going anywhere.
What's the draft deal of the COP26 climate agreement?
Well, I mean, as we've been expecting, it's a bit of a disappointment in the sense that the governments aren't aligned. The United States and China are not seeing climate in the same way. The developing world, the poorer countries are saying, unless you provide real money, we are not going to give you significant improvements in our net-zero commitments. And that money is very slow and it's not trusted. But you do have a lot of movement on climate. It's just not happening primarily through intergovernmental coordination. It's happening at the individual country level. It's happening at the NGO level, the individual action, mass support level and as a consequence, a whole bunch of corporates and bankers whose conversations I have with them are radically different on expectations of how fast they need to transition compared to three or five years ago. So I'm actually getting somewhat more optimistic, but the COP process, and if you look at that deal, is definitely one-third full at best glass.
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Polish service members and police officers are seen behind a barbed wire fence as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian-Polish border in an attempt to cross it in the Grodno region, Belarus November 9, 2021.
The EU’s big Eastern problems
Let's take a trip along the eastern fringes of the EU today, where two big problems are brewing at a time when Brussels seems particularly unable to respond effectively.
Our first stop is along the frigid and bleak border of Belarus, where thousands of migrants, mostly from the Middle East, have been trying since June to cross into EU member states Lithuania and Poland.
In recent days, tensions at these borders have escalated significantly. The migrants, allegedly driven forward by Belarusian police, are trying to break through Polish border fences. Lithuania, which initially let some of the migrants in, has now declared a state of emergency. The Poles, meanwhile, have sent some 12,000 troops to the border to stop them, and Polish officials accuse Belarusian troops of firing warning shots in the air to intimidate their Polish counterparts.
European officials say Belarus is using the freezing and malnourished migrants as pawns in a diplomatic showdown with the EU, which last year imposed sanctions on strongman president Alexander Lukashenko over his sham 2020 re-election and human rights abuses, as well as his hijacking of a Ryanair flight last May. But even if that's true, EU critics point out, the Europeans had months to prepare a coherent plan to manage this border problem — and failed to act. An ongoing spat between EU officials and the Polish government over rule of law issues has made matters worse: the Poles haven't asked EU border authorities for help.
Lukashenko, for his part, says Poland's troop movements pose a threat to Belarus and blames the EU and US for the instability that is pushing people from the Middle East to seek refuge in Europe in the first place.
The EU, caught off guard, is now threatening to slap even more sanctions on Lukashenko's regime and to punish the airlines that are ferrying would-be migrants to Minsk from countries like Iraq, the UAE, Lebanon, and Turkey. That could raise hackles in EU member Ireland, where many of the companies that lease planes to the airlines are based.
But more sanctions don't look likely to change Belarusian behavior. Particularly when Lukashenko's old frenemy Vladimir Putin is eagerly egging him on. And while the EU has managed other refugee problems by simply paying neighboring countries — like Libya or Turkey — to prevent migrants from reaching EU borders, that's not an option here: you can't send money to a government you are sanctioning.
Now, let's fly a thousand miles southeast, to the marchlands of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, where the Kremlin has recently begun (again) massing troops along a Ukrainian "border" that isn't much of a boundary. It's more a porous line of demarcation administered by Russia and the Kremlin-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has deployed some 90,000 troops to the region, raising lingering fears about Russia's broader designs on Ukraine. The US calls the buildup "unusual." And it's alarming enough that CIA director Bill Burns reportedly discussed the matter with Putin in Moscow last week.
Recall that back in April Russia brought as many as 150,000 troops into the area, before slowly drawing them back. What's Moscow up to this time?
To be clear, it's hard to imagine that the Kremlin intends to invade (and occupy) a significant piece of Ukraine. The cost in Russian money and lives would not be popular at home.
But Putin likes to rattle that sabre every so often, in part to remind Europeans and Americans that he can. And lately Russia is feeling particularly prickly: Moscow cut ties with NATO last month and is upset about US warships sailing around the Black Sea. The recent delivery of $60 million worth of US military aid to Ukraine didn't go over well in the Kremlin either.
With winter coming, it's actually a great moment for Russia to flex a little muscle. Europe is currently mired in an energy price crisis caused by a shortage of natural gas. The one country that could help alleviate that pressure is, of course, major exporter Russia. But the Kremlin — which is still under a raft of sanctions in response to its 2014 invasion of Ukraine — has refused to open the taps until Russia is treated better by Brussels.
Upshot: Once again, some of the EU's most intractable problems rise in the East. And things aren't going to get any easier once experienced crisis manager Angela Merkel retires next month.