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Hard Numbers: Putin eyes more troops, Liberals lose in Montreal riding, Beijing frees American, Deadly clashes in New Guinea, Gazan children vaccinated, Nigerian prison escape
180,000: Uncle Vladimir wants … more troops. The Russian president on Monday ordered that his country’s army be enlarged to 1.5 million active troops, an increase of 180,000 soldiers. If successful, the growth would make Russia’s military the second largest worldwide, with China in the No. 1 spot.
28: Canada’s Liberal Party lost another big byelection on Monday in Montreal’s LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding. Between this loss to Bloc-Québécois and a June loss to Conservatives in Toronto-St. Paul’s, PM Justin Trudeau’s party has seen a summer bookended by major losses in so-called Liberal strongholds. Preliminary results from Monday’s vote show it was so close that the BQ beat the Liberals by less than a percentage point, 28% to 27.2%. But don’t expect Trudeau to step down: He said before the polls opened that he would stay on as party leader whatever the result.
18: On Sunday, Beijing releasedDavid Lin, an American pastor who had been wrongfully detained in China for 18 years, partially fulfilling the White House’s repeated requests to hand over detainees. Washington is also seeking the release of Kai Li and Mark Swidan, who have been detained in China since 2016 and 2012, respectively. Their detentions are scheduled for a congressional hearing on Wednesday.
50: Up to 50 people have died in ongoing fighting among illegal mine operators in Papua New Guinea’s Porgera Valley, the UN announced Monday. Security forces have reportedly started deploying in the valley, which was also the site of a landslide that killed up to 2,000 people in May, but violence, especially inter-tribal violence, is a growing problem that New Guinea has few resources to address.
90: UN health authorities in Gaza announced on Monday that they have vaccinated 90% of the 640,000 children with their first dose against polio, a major humanitarian accomplishment amid the ongoing fighting. UNRWA says it’s now focused on getting the vaccine to the remaining children and setting up for the second dose in about two months.
274: At least 274 inmates in a Nigerian prison in Borno state have escaped after major floods caused walls in the facility to collapse. Around 4 million Nigerians have been affected by the floods, and at least 1,000 people across West and Central Africa have died.Coronavirus Politics Daily: Polio eyes a comeback in Africa, Malawi's corona mess, America's economic bounce back
What will the US economy's bounce back look like? The US economy contracted at least 4.8 percent in the first quarter of this year because of coronavirus lockdowns, the US Commerce Department said Wednesday, the swiftest economic decline since the Great Recession over a decade ago. With consumer spending plunging and shuttered businesses causing mass layoffs, the US economy has likely entered a recession, analysts say. When the economy began to nosedive back in March many predicted that the economic comeback would be much faster than 2010 with businesses clamoring to reopen and quarantined consumers keen to socialize and spend again. It's now clear, however, that in the absence of a vaccine we're not going back to anything resembling "normal life" any time soon. The economic revival of the country in the near-term, therefore, is contingent on two things: how quickly a vaccine is developed – which could take 12 –18 months – as well as when the US rolls out a widespread testing program so that people who have developed immunity can reenter the workforce. While the federal government has stepped in with $2 trillion in financial aid to assist unemployed Americans and struggling businesses, this won't be enough to help mom-and-pop stores, gyms, restaurants, and cafes around the country weather the COVID storm. In sectors like retail, meanwhile, where jobs were already disappearing as shopping moved online, it's hard to imagine that giants like Macy's will rehire many of the nearly 125,000 employees furloughed when the chain closed some 750 stores in March. So, what does Q2 have in store, you ask? An economic decline of at least 30 percent – or more – economists say.
A corona mess in Malawi: The landlocked country of Malawi in southeastern Africa, where about half the population of 19 million live below the poverty line, made headlines in recent days over the constitutional clash between the courts and the government, which has been blocked from implementing a national lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus. A human rights group said that people would not be able to provide for their families during a lockdown, and home quarantine orders have been banned while the case is reviewed by the country's Constitutional Court. Much of the criticism directed at the government centered on the fact that it had not directed financial aid to offset the loss of income for millions who work in Malawi's agriculture and informal sectors. With help from the World Bank, the government has since set up a $37 million funding package for 1 million people (which would come to a monthly allowance of about $40), but analysts say it's unclear that the cash-strapped Malawi government can even pay for its share. In a country with limited capacity to test for COVID, weak government infrastructure and distrust between the courts and government after a contested election last year, Malawi represents a ticking time bomb scenario.