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South Korean authorities get extension to Yoon arrest warrant
South Korean anti-corruption authorities reached a deal with police to extend their warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday after failing to arrest him on Friday. A six-hour standoff with presidential security in the official residence amounted to nothing, and the corruption investigators have asked the National Police Agency to take over the responsibility of detaining Yoon. Authorities have not disclosed the new extension's expiration date.
Police are in uncharted waters, however, as no previous South Korean president has been arrested before being removed from office. Yoon was impeached in December, but vacancies on the constitutional court have prevented his official removal. Meanwhile, his party is playing for time – hoping to stall long enough to allow the high court to rule on a case that could render the opposition leader ineligible to run in elections to replace Yoon.
The gridlock is starting to chafe allies, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had expressed “serious concerns” during talks in Seoul with his counterpart on Monday. But Blinken also praised the strong response of South Korean institutions to Yoon’s attempt to seize power through martial law.
North Korea, which has taken a cautious approach thus far amid Seoul’s domestic upheaval, used Blinken’s visit as an opportunity to test a medium-range missile with a supposedly hypersonic capacity. We’re watching how Pyongyang approaches potential provocations once the Biden administration leaves the scene.
Austria’s far right takes its first shot at government since World War II
Austria’s president asked the far-right, pro-Russia Freedom Party to form a government on Monday after talks between the traditional right and left parties collapsed over the weekend. The Freedom Party’s leader, Herbert Kickl, said he would begin negotiations with the center-right Austrian People’s Party, which had previously balked at playing second fiddle. The two parties are expected to be able to form a government now that former Chancellor Karl Nehammer from the Austrian People’s Party has stepped down.
The Freedom Party traces its roots to a former Nazi SS officer and politician, and like its peer far-right parties in Germany, France, and Italy, was heavily ostracized in the past. Now, Austria looks likely to join Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia as part of a growing bloc within the EU ruled by populist rightwingers.
How would a far-right government change Austria? On a policy level, Vienna is already quite conservative, advocating hardline migration and fiscal measures for the EU. Austria will also likely continue trying to exploit sanction loopholes with Russia, but not totally undermine them, says Eurasia Group’s Jan Techau.
“There are also fears of Orbanization in Austria as the far-right people are very ardent culture warriors,” says Techau, referring to the weakening of democratic institutions under Prime Minister Viktor Orban in neighboring Hungary. “We are not sure how far this can go. Austria is not Hungary, it’s a federal system, not a centralized state, and political and civil society pushback can be expected.”
We’re watching what the Freedom Party’s success might say about the rise of the far right in EU anchor states France and Germany this year.
Germany grapples with extremism after Christmas market attack
The Saudi doctor accused of killing 5 people in the Magdeburg Christmas market on Friday appeared in a German court on Saturday.Taleb al-Abdulmohsen, 50, was charged with five counts of murder, multiple attempted murder and multiple counts of dangerous bodily harm in an attack which also wounded over 200 people. One of those killed was9-year old André Gleißner, described by his mother in a social media post as “my little teddy bear”. A GoFundMe for the family has raised tens of thousands of dollars.
Anger is growing over missed opportunities to prevent the attack. Riyadhhad flagged the suspect to German authorities last summer,citing a post where he threatened that Germany would “pay a price” for its treatment of Saudi refugees. At the same time, al-Abdulmohsen called himself a“Saudi atheist” and evinced sympathies for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
On Friday, the AfD held a 2000-person rally at a memorial site near the market, calling for “Remigration”, and chanting “Migration Kills.” The incident has putmigration and national security front and center in Germany’s upcoming national election, anticipated for February 23. The AfD is currently polling at around 19%, second only to the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) at around 33%, but all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with them.
Trudeau’s Darkest Hour
This is Justin Trudeau’s darkest hour.
Even as he shuffles his Cabinet tomorrow, it will not shuffle his political future. This is the endgame.
Eventually, all successful politicians turn into Dorian Gray — gazing into the mirror and seeing a reflection of beauty they believe voters will find irresistible. All the while, however, somewhere under a parliamentary staircase, a portrait of their political face is being ravaged by time, scandal, and betrayal. That is the bargain leaders inevitably make as they fight to stay in power.
There was President Joe Biden earlier in the year, still seeing the reflection of a robust man ready to govern for another four years despite the fact that he couldn’t get through 40 minutes of a presidential debate. He had to be pried out of the presidential limo by the Jaws of Pelosi.
In 2015, former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper thought he too saw another big election win in the mirror, but instead, insulated from reality inside his powerful prime minister’s office, he suffered a stunning defeat. The wheel of change is not partisan, but it is powerful.
Trudeau is now seeing the real portrait for the first time. After nine years in power, down 20 points in the polls, he has long refused to look, but his once trusted Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland just swiped the picture from under the stairs, waved it around publicly, and then lit it on fire.
It’s hard to imagine a more shambolic ending. Freeland was told by the PM — on a Zoom call, no less! —that she was going to be replaced as finance minister right after she presented the Fall Economic Statement (a kind of mini-budget in Canada) that would reveal the government blew past its own key deficit target by more than CA$20 billion. In other words, “Please wear this fiscal mess and let me move on to a new thing.”
How was that ever going to work? Naturally Freeland refused, but she didn’t simply quiet-quit and go gently into that good political night. Instead, just hours before she was set to deliver the FES, she chaos-quit with a controlled rage, rage-against-the-dying-of-light letter, dismissing Trudeau’s entire economic agenda as a self-serving “political gimmick.”
It blew the government apart.
It’s hard to declare winners and losers in this carnage, as everyone in the government is a casualty. The PM is now facing an open revolt by a growing number of MPs. Wayne Long, an outspoken Liberal, went on CTV’s ‘Power Play’ to say Trudeau is “delusional” and claimed that up to 40 MPS want him to resign, though that number has yet to be confirmed. Still, his sentiments were reflected in comments MPs told me, one saying bluntly, “I hope he announces he is stepping down.”
Freeland herself says she is running again, which basically kicked off the next leadership race, and she is likely the front-runner. But, as the saying goes, “The hand that wields the knife shall never wear the crown.” Freeland delivered four budgets for Trudeau, and even if she rightly fought back against the $1.6 billion goods and services tax holiday boondoggle, that hardly adds up to the over $20 billion overage on her own targets. If Canada is facing a fiscal reckoning and an angry electorate, isn’t Freeland as responsible as Trudeau? Would Canadians be able to disaggregate the two?
All this could not come at a worse time for Canada, now under direct threat from President-elect Donald Trump. He promises devastating 25% tariffs on Canada the day after he is inaugurated, and, with a hyena’s nose for weakness, he has persistently and publicly tormented Trudeau with the threat of making Canada the 51st state.
Pause on that for a second because it is unprecedented in Canadian-US history, unless you want to go back to … 1812, before Confederation. What started out as a Trump taunt is starting to look more like a Trump trial balloon. Trump’s son Eric has amplified the idea on social media, and now, on places like Fox News, taking over Canada is a topic of genuine debate.
With Trump, the first question is always: Do we take him literally, or seriously, or both?
And the lesson people have learned in the last eight years is: both.
Even as government officials have dismissed the threat as a joke, others are taking it seriously. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is showing up on American news programs defending Canada and threatening to cut off energy exports.
Trump trades in three currencies: power, fame, and loyalty. A lame duck leader of a foreign country who has only one of these three may come to Mar-a-Lago for dinner, but he might well end up on the menu.
The best hope Canada has is for the 35 state governors who depend on Canada as their top trading partner to act as de facto proxies for Canada, and push back against tariffs that will hurt their workers and economies.
Now what?
A few paths:
One, Trudeau stays and runs again after tomorrow’s Cabinet shuffle. There are no polls or signs that would suggest this is the most productive path, but, until he leaves, it has to be an option.
Two, Trudeau leaves, prorogues parliament, and the leadership race kicks off. The rules around that election will be crucial for the Liberal Party.
Can Liberals afford to take three months to elect a leader while Trump launches trade tariffs and the Conservatives consolidate their lead in the polls? It is not advisable.
On the other hand, can they afford to do a short 30-35-day process, in which case very few Canadian voters and new candidates will get involved? That might not end up injecting any fresh blood into the party at all. The Democrats tried it in the US and ended up with a frothy Kamala Harris campaign start and a miserable end.
There are few good options for the leader and the party right now, but if the government falls on a confidence motion in the new year, then the race is one with Trudeau at the helm, which is exactly what the opposition parties want most of all.
Nothing can happen until the prime minister decides what he will do.
It’s coming on Christmas, as Joni Mitchell once sang, the day the prime minister was born, but instead of seeing a star in the sky, even he knows this is his darkest political hour. The only guide he has might be those portraits of other prime ministers that hang in the halls of Parliament, each of whom has had to ask the same impossibly hard question: When is my time up?
Only a few of them got to choose their own answer.
Canada: A great place to die?
Canada’s medical assistance in dying (MAiD) regime is garnering criticism, as its rapid growth threatens to make the country the world capital of assisted suicide - if it’s not already. Health Canada has just released the statistics for 2023 that show Canada sat just behind the Netherlands in terms of the number of assisted deaths. In both countries, one in 20 deaths are due to medical assistance - a total of 15,343 Canadians in the 2023 calendar year. However, it took the Netherlands 22 years to reach that proportion; it has taken Canada just seven.
The original intent of the legislation was to offer a painless death with dignity to those with a terminal disease. Since then, court challenges have opened medical assistance in dying to people who do not have a “grievous and irremediable” condition. The most worrying statistic for opponents of expanding the regime was the revelation that 622 people with non-terminal illnesses received assisted dying. Nearly half of them cited “isolation or loneliness” as one of the causes of their suffering. Rejections of MAiD remain much higher for non-terminal applicants, but yet more liberalization of the regime is coming, unless a future government steps in to block it.
As of March 2027, people with mental illness as their underlying condition will be eligible for MAiD, a development that has many experts worried. The change was due to come in last March but was punted down the road by parliamentarians spooked by expert testimony that indicated the difficulties of predicting mental illness outcomes. One witness told members of Parliament that the long-term prognosis of a person with mental illness is wrong one half of the time.
The voices of concern will grow louder if the 2024 numbers confirm that Canada is now medically assisting the deaths of more of its own citizens than any other country on earth.
2024: Ten big moments when politics and culture collided
The line between entertainment and politics seems blurrier than ever these days, and not only because the most powerful leader in the world is once again going to be, among many other things, a former reality TV star.
The ubiquity of social media, the bitterness of political polarization, and the ferocity of the culture wars leaves almost no aspect of our societies untouched by politics these days.
Here’s a look at ten big moments from 2024 when popular culture shaped, or was shaped by, the biggest political stories of the year.
A “Childless Cat Lady” from Pennsylvania endorses Kamala Harris
In what was perhaps the biggest celebrity endorsement of the US presidential campaign, pop superstar Taylor Swift announced to her 280 million Instagram followers in mid September that she’d be voting for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
The endorsement from the year’s most streamed artist wasn’t exactly a surprise – Swift went for Biden in 2020 and has been outspoken on liberal and progressive issues for years. But it provided a shot in the arm for the Dems after a “cruel summer” largely defined by Joe Biden’s bruising and way-too-late withdrawal from the race, and Donald Trump’s seemingly-miraculous evasion of an assassin’s bullet.
Notably, Swift signed her post, which showed her holding one of her three cats, as “A childless cat lady.” That was a swipe at Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, who had earlier criticized women who choose to buck traditional gender roles by having cats but not kids.
It was one of the many ways that gender played into the election, with the Democrats emphasizing issues that were important to many women, such as protecting the right to abortion in a a post-Roe world, while the Trump camp, looking to draw the largely untapped support of young male voters, leaned into messages of macho masculinity and the idealization of more traditional gender roles.
Hulk Hogan rips his shirt off at the RNC
“Let Trumpamania run willlllld, brother!!!” Speaking of macho masculinity, in July, former pro-wrestler Hulk Hogan took the stage at the GOP convention, and in a fit of indignant rage about the attempted assassination of his “hero” Donald Trump, threw down his blazer and ripped off his tank top to reveal a Trump Vance shirt. The crowd went WILD.
It was the craziest on-stage moment at a GOP convention at least since that time Clint Eastwood lectured an empty chair in Tampa in 2012. And as pop culture clashups go, the 71-year old Hogan, his steroidal intensity undiminished by the ravages of age, was something of a time warp: a throwback to the over-the t0p world of 1980s and 1990s celebrity and pro-wrestling culture where Trump himself once held court.
But the mutual embrace between Donald Trump and the world of combat sports was part of his broader strategy to reach those crucial young male voters. He locked up the support of Dana White, the head of Ultimate Fighting Championship, and frequented podcasts popular with fans of mixed martial arts and boxing: perhaps no stop was more influential than his three hour sit-down with the biggest pod of all, The Joe Rogan Experience.In the end, it worked. Trump won over huge numbers of young male voters, particularly in Black and Latino communities – one of the keys to his victory.
Supper scene cooks up controversy at the Paris Olympics
It was the shot seen ‘round the world. The Paris Olympics four hour long opening ceremony in July briefly included a scene featuring more than a dozen dancers and drag queens gathered at a feast table, on either side of a woman in a halo-like medieval headdress. The feast, revealed under a large cloche, was a quasi-naked man painted blue on a bed of fruit.
Did it look a lot like an ultra-progressive remix of Leonardo Da Vinci’s Last Supper? Many Christians and church leaders thought so. It was a “disgrace,” according to Donald Trump. “The war on our faith and traditional values knows no bounds,” tweeted House Speaker Mike Johnson. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said it showed “the moral void of the West.” Even the pope got involved, with the Vatican denouncing the “offense to numerous Christians and .. believers of other religions.”
The ceremony’s artistic director later said, maybe a little improbably, that the reference was actually to a classical Dionysian feast and that the scene was meant to “talk about diversity.” The Olympic committee apologized for offending Christians.
But as ever, the battle lines of the ongoing culture war between conservatives and progressives were brightly drawn – and everyone on all sides saw the scene precisely as they wanted to.
South Korea forces North Korea to face the music
What is all that racket? Oh, it’s just the South Korean government using 20-foot tall speakers to blare K-pop hits across the Demilitarized Zone towards North Korea.
The ear-splitting move, made in June, was part of an escalating propaganda war between the two sides. Earlier, North Korea had begun sending hot air balloons filled with trash and excrement across the border to the South, in response to South Korean activist groups which had sent their own balloons northward laden with propaganda leaflets and USB thumb-drives full of soap operas and music banned in North Korea’s ultra-totalitarian society.
All of this loudly echoed a broader deterioration in relations between the Koreas this year. With talks on the nature of any potential denuclearization of the North long-stalled, Pyongyang finally renounced any prospect of reunification, blew up cross-border liaison offices, and cut all road connections with the South.
With North Korean Supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s pal Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, and South Korea’s politics in chaos after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, keep an eye on how both the politics, and the music, play across the Korean peninsula next year.Oscar winner refutes “hijacking of Jewishness” at the Oscars
Few global issues were, or remain, as polarizing in 2024 as the conflict in Gaza, and those tensions took center stage early in the year at the Oscars, when Director Jonathan Glazer won Best Picture for his film Zone of Interest, a portrayal of the banal family life of the Nazi official in charge of Auschwitz.
In his acceptance speech Glazer, who is Jewish, said his film was a testament to the evils of “dehumanization”, and that he “refuted” those who “hijack Jewishness and the Holocaust” to justify Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.
The blowback was immediate. The Anti-Defamation League, pro-Israel leaders, and more than a thousand other Jewish film professionals blasted Glazer, with some accusing him of a “modern blood libel.” Just as surely, critics of Israel’s occupation and those calling for a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas leapt to Glazer’s defense.
The episode underscored not only the deep divisions within America about the war in Gaza and the US relationship to Israel, but the political and generational splits within America’s Jewish community itself over this issue.French striker Kylian Mbappé gives an assist to President Macron
Look, we’re not going to touch the heated debate about who the best soccer player in the world is right now. But for a great number of people, it’s 25-year old French striker Kylian Mbappé, who plays for Real Madrid and is the captain of the French national team.
Over the summer, Mbappé took his star power from the pitch into politics, when he weighed in on France’s snap elections. After the far right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen won the first round on a platform calling for a fierce crackdown on immigration, Mbappé, who is of Cameroonian and Algerian descent, said “It’s catastrophic, we really hope that this will change and that everyone will mobilise to vote... and vote for the right side.”
He wasn’t the only member of Les Bleus to weigh in against Le Pen. Others did too. After all, the French soccer team itself has long been at the center of the fraught debate over French immigration and identity – perhaps never more so than when a majority non-white team won the World Cup in 2018.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition managed to eke out the second round, but only by concocting a strange bedfellows alliance with the far left. National Rally, meanwhile, rang up its best election result ever, setting up Le Pen for a decent shot on goal if she decides to run for president in the 2027 election.Gaza war takes center stage at Eurovision
Politics always – always – crashes the party at the annual summit of kitsch and crooning known as “Eurovision.” In recent years the conflicts in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh have both spilled onto the stage.
This year, it was Gaza. As 20-year old Israeli performer Eden Golan belted out her entry “Hurricane” she was immediately met with boos and cries of “Free Palestine!”
The song itself was controversial from the start. The contest’s organizers, who try their best to keep politics out of the affair, had rejected an earlier version called “October Rain,” an Israeli perspective on Hamas’ Oct. 7 2023 terror rampage, which killed more than 1,200 people.
By the time Eurovision rolled around seven months later, the IDF had visited massive destruction on Gaza, killing tens of thousands, displacing nearly all of the enclave’s two million residents, and drawing accusations of war crimes. The “Free Palestine” protest movement was in full flower, and it popped up at the Eurovision contest ahead of Golan’s performance.
In the end, “Hurricane” placed fifth in the overall contest. Like many Eurovision entries over the years, it is certain to be less memorable than the controversy that surrounded it.
Dead Austrian economist makes UFC cameo
In a surreal, instantly viral moment that even the shrewdest bookie could scarcely have predicted, Brazilian UFC fighter Renato Moicano in February gave a post-fight shoutout to… an influential school of 20th century European economists.
“If you care about your f***** country,” Moicano declared, his cheek still oozing blood after a bruising bout against France’s Benoit Saint Denis, “read Ludwig von Mises and the six lessons of the Austrian economic school motherf*****!”
Now, it’s not every day that a mixed martial artist runs your political economy book club, but Moicano’s comment reflected the rising popularity in Latin America of the so-called “Austrian school” economists, a fiercely laissez-faire group who despised even the merest hint of “socialism.”
Argentina’s “anarcho-libertarian” president Javier Milei, who has taken a “chainsaw” approach to government spending, is probably the world’s most prominent Austrian school disciple these days.
But Mises’ ideas are popular among a broader set of new right populists in the Americas and Europe who see themselves at war with both “globalism” and an overbearing administrative state.
“F*** all of these motherf****** globalists trying to push this politically corrupt agenda,” Moicano went on. “If you want to talk about politics and the economy, read ‘Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann!’”A big fat Indian wedding stokes controversy
If you think weddings are getting crazy expensive these days, you’re absolutely right. In mid July, Anant Ambani, a son of India’s richest man, married his fiance Radhika Merchant, a pharma industry heir, in a months-long nuptial extravaganza that cost some $600 million in total.
The 2,000 person guest list for several pre-wedding parties and the event itself was a who’s who of the global political, fashion, and cultural elite: the Kardashians, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Indian PM Narendra Modi, two former UK prime ministers, the Jonas Brothers. There were private concerts by, among others, Rihanna, Katy Perry, Justin Bieber, and Pitbull.
Around the world, people followed the festivities, the outfits, the gossip online. And not all of them liked what they saw.
The over the top opulence of it all – and the chummy relationship between the country’s ultra-rich and its politicians – stoked criticism among those who pointed out that India is, after all, a country where some 200 million people languish in poverty, and just 1% of the country controls 40% of the wealth. To put things in perspective, at India’s current per capita income of $2,500, it would take an average person 240,000 years to pay for a wedding like this in cash.Honorary mention: your opinion.
Did we miss anything in this list that you’d have included? If so, let us know here and we may include it in an upcoming edition of the GZERO Daily.
Did Bolivia’s ex-president stage an assassination … on himself?
The day after former Bolivian President Evo Morales claimed to have survived an attempt on his life on Sunday, Interior Minister Eduardo de Castillo accused Morales of staging an attempt on his own life. Morales, for his part, claims the government attempted to kill him amid a massive power struggle that has divided the ruling party.
What does each side claim? Morales said in a radio interview that a convoy carrying him through Chapare — a rural bastion of both Morales voters and coca production — was stopped by masked men with weapons who shot at his car and wounded his driver before the convoy fled.
De Castillo, on the other hand, said in a news conference that Morales’ car had failed to stop at a drug checkpoint and ran over a police officer while attempting to flee, leading to a chase and small arms fire.
What’s the beef? Morales is technically from the same Movement Toward Socialism party that currently holds power in La Paz, but he and his erstwhile protegé, President Luis Arce, are in a bitter feud. Both men want to stand for election as president next year, but Morales has been found ineligible by the constitutional court (not that this will stop him).
We’re watching for more clarity about what really went down, and whether Morales still commands the populist charm that kept him in office from 2006-2013.
It’s horse-trading season in Japan after shock election
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.
An unforced error? The PM only came to power on Oct. 1 in an internal party vote after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down. Ishiba could have waited up to a year to call an election but wanted to win a mandate from voters quickly. A little patience might have paid off – and given him time to move away from the scandal and work on Japan’s sluggish economy.
What’s next? Ishiba has 30 days to form a coalition, and he will need to include an extra partner beyond traditional allies from the Komeito party. The most likely contender is the Democratic Party for the People, a fellow center-right party that saw its seat count rise from 7 to 28, but its leader is playing hardball. Yuichiro Tamaki says he would prefer to work with the LDP on an issue-by-issue basis — which would mean catering to his needs on every vote.
Will the US-Japan alliance suffer? Not likely. The alliance is a point of broad consensus in Tokyo, but plans to amp up Japanese defense may need to take a backseat.