Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
GZERO Wrapped 2023
‘Tis the Spotify Wrapped season! (Or Apple Music replay season, for those of us out of step with the cultural zeitgeist). In the spirit of everyone sharing their most-played tracks of the year, the GZERO team decided to look back at some of our top-viewed articles of 2023. You’ll never guess who wrote our top pick …
Plus, check out GZERO’s totally real and definitely not photoshopped 2023 Spotify Wrapped playlists from some of your favorite politicians.
#5 What should Israel do next?, by Ian Bremmer, October 2023
Hamas’ surprise Oct. 7 attack – and Israel’s subsequent offensive in Gaza – was a giant inflection point for global politics this year, so there’s no surprise that our audience looked to Ian Bremmer for emotion-free analysis amid a trove of disinformation about the war. TL;DR: Ian says Israel has the right to defend itself from attacks on its civilians, but perpetuating a humanitarian catastrophe for the world to see will reduce its moral legitimacy and damage its international standing.
#4 Wagner and Russia’s next moves, by Tasha Kheiriddin, August 2023
This summer (feels like a lifetime ago), Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge to date and survived an almost coup. Increasing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the paramilitary Wagner Group came to a head on June 23, when Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his troops marched toward Moscow. The rebels ultimately turned around before reaching the Kremlin, but Putin couldn’t let this level of public dissent go unpunished. Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash two months later, leaving many to question the future of the Wagner Group in Russia and around the world.
#3 Canada caught up in US-China maritime tensions, by Carlos Santamaria, June 2023
With so much going on in the headlines, disputed waters in the South China Sea might not be at the top of many people’s reading lists, but it was for our readers. In June, China sailed a warship very close to a US destroyer and Canadian frigate (which was legally in the area, according to the United Nations) in the Taiwan Strait. Although a somewhat benign incident, it’s important to remember: More intimidation leads to more risk of miscalculation … that could trigger armed conflict.
#2 Cuba tells Russia to back off, by Willis Sparks, September 2023
A story that went a little under the radar this year (but shouldn’t have): Cuba uncovered a human trafficking ring that sought to coerce Cubans to join the war effort in Ukraine. It wasn’t too surprising that Russia was looking for more troops: Putin enlisted citizens from neighboring countries and even recruited prisoners to fight in the war in exchange for their freedom. What was surprising: Cuba’s willingness to publicly release a statement speaking out against its longtime ally, Russia.
#1 The Dollar is Dead, Long Live the Dollar, by Ian Bremmer, April 2023
Economists, analysts, crypto bros, and my overly informed uncle at Thanksgiving dinner have all been guilty of getting swept up in hysteria about the end of US dollar dominance in the global economy. The fear is not unfounded, as countries from time to time discuss diversifying away from the US dollar, and its share in foreign exchange reserves has indeed declined in recent years. But GZERO’s founder and President Ian Bremmer reminded us … the share is still nearly twice that of the euro, yen, pound, and yuan combined. In short: Everyone needs to relax. The dollar is safe … because you can't replace something with nothing.Candles are placed at a makeshift memorial near the former PMC Wagner Center, associated with the founder of the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin, in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Wagner and Russia’s next moves
Russia has confirmed the identities of the 10 people who died in a plane crash last Wednesday northwest of Moscow. They included Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, as well key associates Dmitry Utkin and Valery Chekalov.
The question now turns to what happens to Wagner forces and the group’s clients, particularly African nations that are of strategic importance to Russia. Can President Vladimir Putin pick up where Prigozhin left off?
Experts note the personalized nature of Prigozhin’s leadership with both his fighters and his clients, as well as his ability to pull together “disparate entities and people.” Those entities included the leadership of Mali, the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, and most recently, Niger. All are battling insurgent groups, including Islamic extremists, and in Mali, the militants have reportedly doubled their territorial control this past year. In Niger, the junta seeking to consolidate power after a recent coup had reached out to Wagner, but no relationship had yet been established.
Some predict that other Russian military operatives, such as Redut and Convoy, could fill the gap. Others note how the Russians have vowed to honor Wagner’s contracts in Mali and CAR. Meanwhile, the Republican Front, which is aligned with the leaders in CAR, confirmed its continued support for Russia and Wagner late last week. So it looks like Russia intends to continue leveraging Wagner in its bid to gain more influence on the continent.
It’s less clear what will happen in Burkina Faso and Niger, so we’ll be watching to see how junta leaders in those countries – and how Wagner’s men – respond to Prigozhin’s death.
Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin breaks his silence on Prigo
Almost 24 hours after the plane presumed to be carrying Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin exploded midair outside Moscow – presumably killing him and Wagner’s top military commander Dmitry Utkin – Vladimir Putin has broken his silence. On Thursday, the Russian leader sent his condolences to the families of the 10 people killed in Wednesday’s massive explosion.
(For more on Prigozhin’s failed June mutiny, which brought him on a collision course with his boss, see our explainer here.)
Though Putin needs to keep things ambiguous to avoid igniting the wrath of the thousands of disgruntled Wagner troops who remain loyal to Prigozhin, he did make his displeasure with the former mercenary chief known: Prigozhin was a “person with a complicated fate, and he made serious mistakes in life,” Putin said, adding that he “also sought to achieve the necessary results – both for himself and … for the common cause.”
Complicated fate? That’s something the Kremlin and the US intelligence community can agree on. On Thursday, US officials confirmed that the explosion was likely the result of an assassination attempt, though they said the explosion didn’t come from surface-to-air missiles, as some have claimed, but from a bomb placed on board or another mechanism.
Putin is known for killing his enemies, but taking down a loyalist and one-time protege? That would be a first.
Prigozhin presumed dead
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Yevgeny Prigozhin, former head of Wagner Group and would-be putschist against Vladimir Putin's Kremlin and Russia, is no more. It was an unprecedented story, that coup attempt against Putin's regime. This was the man who, of course, had been built up and so loyal to Vladimir Putin with the most powerful paramilitary organization in the world, fighting a battle on the ground in Ukraine and fighting against the Minister of Defense and others, losing that battle and deciding to turn his forces against the Russian regime. First, in Rostov and capturing the seat of the Southern command, and then marching him probably on to Moscow, where at the final moment he backs down and agrees to a quote unquote deal with Putin. Putin, who went on national media and referred to Prigozhin as a traitor.
Let's be clear, the important information from all of this was not that there was a deal that was cut. The important information that NATO is paying very close attention to is that Putin didn't take Prigozhin out immediately. He contained the threat. He took his time and acted in a much more calculated way for Putin's own survival.
And given that we've never seen Putin tested like this, and given that for a dictator, it's important to have some air of unpredictability, that you might just launch those weapons, you might have your finger on the button, and that creates some deterrence. The fact is that when Putin was faced with a truly regime-ending threat, that what he did was very careful, very calculated, and ensured the best possible ability for Putin to keep on keeping on.
Now, as I said, back in June, Prigozhin was a dead man walking. Putin had good reason not to want to take him out at the point of his maximum leverage, not least because it would be very ugly in and around Moscow. It would lead to a lot of people getting killed that you wouldn't be able to contain or not show the Russian public. It quite probably would've showed that Putin himself had fled to St. Petersburg from Moscow, a message that certainly he didn't want to see go out.
And of course, Russia was also fighting what was at that point expected to be a very difficult and dangerous Ukrainian counteroffensive. And opening up a fight on two fronts and taking troops away from Ukraine also would've made that much harder for him. So now, Wagner has been contained. Their media company has been shut, many of their bank accounts were frozen, their contracts are being transferred, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive has mostly been shut down by the Russians.
And that of course makes it far, far safer and easier for Putin to go after the former Wagner chief. And so now Yevgeny Prigozhin and the military command structure of Wagner, that leadership dead in a plane crash. I'm fairly comfortable, even though there is no direct evidence at this point, we probably will never have any, saying that Putin gave that order personally. And hey, he actually had some time on his hands since he can't exactly travel to the BRICS Summit in South Africa.
And I'm also comfortable saying that there's no strong near-term threat to Putin. Let's remember that even when the Wagner forces were on their way to Moscow, that there were no defections from Russia's official military structure, no defections from oligarchs. And of course there was not major instability among the Russian people on the streets.
Yes, of course the Russian economy is doing a lot worse now than it was six months ago, a year ago. But Putin still runs that place, and as everyone in Russia can now clearly see, there remain very serious consequences for taking him on.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.
Don't count Yevgeny Prigozhin out
In late June, the oligarch, longtime Putin ally, and Wagner mercenary group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin shocked the world (and Vladimir Putin) when he marched his troops through Russia in what appeared to be a coup against Moscow. Although he backed down, Marie Yovanovitch, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, thinks the story is far from over.
"There are probably a number of different phases of the Prigozhin rebellion," Yovanovitch tells Ian Bremmer in the latest episode of GZERO World, "and we're not at the end of it yet."
So why hasn't Putin more brutally punished Prigozhin and his followers for insubordination? And how should the West take advantage of this internal strife within Russia?
Watch this episode: Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
And watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink
In the year and a half since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has felt like the momentum has consistently been with Ukraine and its Western backers. But is that beginning to change? Months into the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kyiv has little to show for its military push. So why hasn't it been more effective?
While it looks like Ukraine’s military has recently launched a major thrust towards the south towards the Sea of Azov, the tide of war has yet to meaningfully change. So why haven’t the Ukrainians managed to do more, and to do it faster? And if a military resolution to the conflict isn’t coming any time soon, could a diplomatic solution be back on the table? Ian Bremmer addresses these questions with former US ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch on GZERO World.
The two discuss a range of topics, from the state of the counteroffensive to whether a diplomatic resolution to the war is still possible. They also look back at Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed--or aborted, or curtailed--coup. Yovanovitch, for one, doesn't think that story is over by a long shot.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ukraine ups the ante ›
- Prepping the next phase of war ›
- Is Ukraine picking up the pace? ›
- What We're Watching: Africa got grain, Ukraine counteroffensive, CCP save the date ›
- Ukraine’s counteroffensive: Prospects for success, unity, and peace ›
- Why Ukraine's strategy is "stretch, starve, strike" - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia - GZERO Media ›
- US-China: Commerce Secretary Raimondo visit a success - GZERO Media ›
- Biden & Xi set to agree on regulating military use of AI - GZERO Media ›
- Top stories of 2023: GZERO World with Ian Bremmer - GZERO Media ›
Wagner troops posing for a picture during last month's mutiny in the city of Rostov-on-Don.
The threat from (what’s left of) Wagner
The Wagner Group, the private army financed by the now infamous entrepreneur/mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin, has become one of the most talked about players in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But Wagner isn’t what it once was … in a couple of important ways.
Months of grinding warfare have left the group a shadow of its former self. A senior Wagner commander has estimated the group’s casualty rate over the course of the war at nearly 80%. From a peak of 78,000 soldiers, 49,000 of whom were recruited from Russian prisons, about 40,000 have been wounded and 22,000 are dead.
Some of the wounded have returned to duty, leaving Wagner with about 25,000 troops, according to the Wagner commander who also says that about 10,000 have followed Prigozhin into exile in Belarus. The rest, he claims, are in barracks in Ukraine or convalescing in Russia. (These numbers can’t be independently verified, but a group commander speaking to Wagner-friendly media has little reason to exaggerate its current weakness.)
Wagner, therefore, now plays virtually no role in Ukraine.
But even as a greatly reduced force, Wagner is a presence to watch in Belarus. The country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, can’t be too comfortable with 10,000 heavily armed, battle-tested men – many of whom list Russian prisons as their most recent address – camping and training on his territory, particularly since Wagner troops don’t take orders from him or his commanders.
In short, in its current form, Wagner isn’t strong enough to threaten Ukraine or to start trouble with neighboring NATO member Poland, despite some recent bravado. But Putin has long wanted to bring Belarus more directly under Kremlin control, and Wagner is more than strong enough to one day increase the leverage he holds over Lukashenko – if Putin can finally push Prigozhin off the stage and bring Wagner directly under Russian command.
That idea might become more appealing over time as the war grinds on and as Putin needs more soldiers – and as Lukashenko continues to resist the use of Belarusian fighters in Ukraine.
But Putin has to worry about Wagner forces too. While the group continues to serve Russian interests in Africa and the Middle East, these are the same troops who took part in a mutiny that brought a private army within 125 miles of Moscow just a few weeks ago.
The bottom line: Prigozhin has created a monster that may well be making trouble long after its leader is gone.
Gen. Sergei Surovikin and soldiers
Prigozhin watch: Critic sacked, “Armageddon” at rest
A Russian general has said he was sacked for speaking frankly to his superiors about the army’s failings on the front lines in Ukraine.
In a voice message shared publicly by a Russian lawmaker, Major Gen. Ivan Popov accused top brass of “viciously beheading the army” by leaving it unprepared for Ukrainian counteroffensives. Popov had been commanding Russian forces in Southern Ukraine.
That sounds a lot like the grievances that motivated Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin to lead his mutiny a few weeks ago. Since then, Putin has been unexpectedly soft on the “traitor” Prigozhin — possibly over fears that the Wagner boss’s populist anti-brass rants are uncomfortably popular among officers and enlisted men.
The upshot is that we don’t know how many other Popovs there are out there — but neither does Putin.
Meanwhile, Armageddon “rests” Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the infamously brutal, Blofeld-esque Russian general who hasn’t been seen since his friend Prigozhin led that mutiny, is currently “not reachable”, according to a senior Russian MP. The lawmaker says that Surovikin is “resting.”
Surovikin, known as “General Armageddon,” commanded Russian forces in Syria as well as Ukraine. He hasn’t been seen publicly since the New York Times wrote that he had known beforehand of Prigozhin’s plans to lead an uprising.
Careful as Putin has been with Prigozhin, he has made it clear that he’s sticking with his top generals. In recent days both Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukraine war commander Valery Gerasimov have appeared in public, shown hard at work running the war effort.
Meanwhile, Surovikin is “resting” and Popov is looking for work.