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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to New Orleans to attend the Super Bowl, on Feb. 9, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump to unveil steel tariffs, Paris AI summit begins, Ecuador faces runoff election, Maoist rebels killed, Baltics energized by Europe, Eagles soar over Chiefs
25: Donald Trump says he plans to announce a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Mexico and Canada. It’s unclear when the tariffs will take effect, but the US president said Sunday that he would make a formal announcement on Monday.
80: Government and industry leaders from at least 80 countries are convening in Paris on Monday and Tuesday as the AI Action Summit gets underway inside the historic Grand Palais. This year’s summit, the third following similar gatherings in Bletchley Park (UK) and Seoul, Korea, is co-hosted by France’s President Emmanuel Macron and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi,and it will feature an open dialogue about AI regulation and innovation at a critical time for both geopolitics and the technology itself. US Vice President JD Vance is attending as he begins his first official trip abroad. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis will be reporting from the summit and bringing us an interview with Paris Peace Forum Director General Justin Vaïsse on Tuesday.
1: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa was expected to prevail in Sunday’s election and avoid a runoff, but the race against his leftist opponent, Luisa Gonzalez, proved extremely close. Up less than 1% at the time of writing, and with nearly 80% of the ballot boxes counted, Noboa had 44.5% of the vote compared to Gonzalez's 44.1%. If neither candidate secures an outright majority, a runoff will be held on April 13.
31: Security forces battled Maoist rebels in the Bijapur district of Chattisgarh in central India on Sunday, killing 31 insurgents. The left-wing communists, part of the Naxalite movement, have been fighting with India’s government since 1967. Two Indian commandos were also killed in the clash.
3: The three Baltic countries have bid farewell to Russia’s power grid. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania completed their switch from the Russian to the European grid on Sunday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the move — amid heightened security owing to suspected sabotage of underwater cables and pipelines in the Baltic Sea — a new era of freedom for the region.
40-22: The Kansas City Chiefs were hoping for a historic hat-trick Super Bowl win last night in New Orleans, but it wasn’t to be. The Philadelphia Eagles dominated from the start, closing out the first half at 24-0, and finishing the game 40-22, with their quarterback, Jalen Hurts, winning MVP.
Putin trolls Europe about "the master" Trump
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"?
It means that he loves to troll his adversaries. Don't you remember when he said that he actually thought Biden would be a better president from Russia's perspective than Trump? He trolls. It's all misinformation. It's propaganda. It's all served to undermine and show that he's powerful, and he can say whatever he wants. And of course, he would love to see a fight between the Americans and their allies, whether it's the Nordics on Greenland or it's Canada on 51st state, or it's Panama on the canal, or it's Europe on tariffs. And he wants to undermine the countries that gets a divide and conquer kind of response from Putin. And that is what he is doing when he trolls the Europeans.
What's next for Panama after deciding to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative?
Well, certainly, of all the countries that are facing a deeply asymmetric relationship on the back of threats from President Trump, Panama is high on that list. And they really are trying to find a way to avoid tariffs and avoid the Americans squeezing them on the canal. And an easy way to do that, because they've heard this now directly from Trump and from Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is that the Chinese have too much influence over transit. And that is particularly true through these port facilities that a Hong Kong-based company, read, China, is in charge of. And so, they are opening investigations into the contract and into how they engage there. And they're also saying they'll pull out of Belt and Road. All of that is clearly going to upset and antagonize the Chinese. And I think that the Panamanians are very, very comfortable showing that they are going to orient much more towards the United States, given how much more they rely on the Americans.
How would a potential Turkey defense pact with Syria reshape power dynamics in the Middle East?
Given who's on the ground in Syria and the fact that the Americans are likely to pull out the over 2,000 troops they have there, and that Trump has said it's really up to Turkey to maintain that relationship, they were the ones that were closest to the rebels that ended up defeating, overthrowing Assad's regime. Not surprised at all that that is where the diplomacy is heading. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be stable, and it certainly doesn't mean that the Kurds on the ground are going to be handled well. And that will be what we need to watch carefully. But Turkey, a NATO ally that has a lot of influence across the region and particularly now on the ground with Syria, I think that'll be relatively stable given the support from the United States. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Is Trump's new approach to Putin effective?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Finnish President Alexander Stubb offers a cautiously optimistic outlook on US policy toward Ukraine under Trump’s leadership. Joining Bremmer on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Stubb highlights his conversations with the Trump administration, emphasizing that the president’s messaging to Putin is firm and strategic. He believes Trump is focused on securing a deal and expresses confidence that any agreement will ultimately benefit Ukraine.
On the issue of territorial concessions, Stubb draws from Finland’s own history, recalling how his country lost 10% of its land to the Soviet Union but retained its independence. While acknowledging the importance of territory, he argues that Ukraine’s priority must be securing its sovereignty and long-term stability. He sees Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive as a strategically valuable, albeit risky, move that strengthens its negotiating position. Ultimately, he insists this is a long game, and ensuring Ukraine’s security beyond the immediate conflict is the primary goal.
Watch full episode: Europe's new future with Trump 2.0
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Europe's new future with Trump 2.0
As Donald Trump returns to the White House, European leaders are reassessing their reliance on the United States for security and economic stability. In a wide-ranging conversation on GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. They discuss the evolving role of Europe in an era of shifting alliances, economic uncertainty, and rising geopolitical risks. In other words, Europe's role in a Trump 2.0 era. Stubb expresses cautious optimism about Trump’s approach to Russia and Ukraine but underscores the need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its defense and technological leadership.
Stubb also acknowledges that Europe is facing a moment of reckoning. Leaders like Emmanuel Macron and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte calling for increased defense spending and reduced reliance on U.S. security guarantees. Stubb agrees that Europe must strengthen its strategic position but remains wary of the region’s economic competitiveness, particularly in technology, where the US holds a clear advantage.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Envisioning Europe's path forward with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola ›
- Trump will keep supporting Ukraine but demand more of NATO: report. ›
- Europe's reaction to US election win: Gloom and despair ›
- Meloni joins Trump at Mar-a-Lago — with Europe’s economy on the line ›
- Europe plans for Putin & Trump 2.0 ›
Finnish President Alexander Stubb smiles during an event with a blurred "World Economic Forum" background. The text art reads: "GZERO World with Ian Bremmer—the podcast."
What Trump's return means for Europe, with Finnish President Alexander Stubb
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Finnish President Alexander Stubb joins Ian Bremmer in Davos, Switzerland, where world leaders, business executives, and diplomats gathered for the annual World Economic Forum. Just days after President Trump was sworn in for a second term, the mood in Davos was that of cold pragmatism. As Trump made clear in his speech to the Forum, Europe can no longer rely on the kind of copacetic relationship with the United States it had enjoyed since World War II or even during his first term.
So, what does that mean for Europe—and the war in Ukraine? Finland’s President Alexander Stubb and Ian Bremmer discuss.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Is Europe ready to embrace Trump's return to power?
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the spotlight was on President Trump’s virtual address, where he reiterated his stance that Europe has treated the US unfairly and that this dynamic will change. However, it was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s speech that may have left a stronger impression. Zelensky warned that Europe can no longer afford to be an afterthought for its allies, questioning whether Trump sees NATO as necessary or respects EU institutions. His blunt message—Europe is on its own—was echoed by leaders across the continent, especially given that Trump didn’t mention Europe or Ukraine once in his inaugural address.
In response, European leaders are adopting a more pragmatic stance. French President Emmanuel Macron urged Europe to “wake up” and take greater responsibility for its own defense, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte agreed that Trump was right to push for higher defense spending. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, meanwhile, signaled that Europe has economic alternatives beyond the US Now, the real test begins: Will European nations follow through on defense spending, technological investment, and strategic independence? Or will they seek stability elsewhere, even with geopolitical rivals like China?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a leader of the democratic opposition of Belarus, is seen here in Krakow, Poland, in 2022.
Belarus’s exiled opposition leader wants to “remind” Americans of something important
Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years. A close ally of Vladimir Putin, he is often referred to as “Europe’s last dictator.”
Last weekend, he won yet another election that was widely regarded as rigged.
The last time he did that, in 2020, it provoked mass protests led by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who took up the mantle after her husband Syarhei, a popular dissident, was jailed ahead of the vote. The regime brutally suppressed those protests, jailing hundreds. Tsikhanousakaya fled into exile in neighboring Lithuania.
She is still there, and her husband remains in a Belarusian prison. I spoke to her about why Lukashenko’s latest electoral fraud has failed to produce the same kind of uprising, and what she expects and hopes will happen next.
Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Alex Kliment: Sviatlana, the last time Lukashenko won an election that was widely regarded as a fraud, there were mass protests, the largest in Belarusian history. This time, so far, the streets of Minsk are silent. Why?
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya:In 2020, after fraudulent elections, people went to the streets. We wanted to protect our votes, our voice, and this regime, they suppressed it. They unleashed terror and for four years in a row, the regime has kept Belarusian people in total fear.
I think that people in democratic countries don’t even have an understanding of what it means to live in such a society, in such a tyranny. It’s like in Stalin’s time when at any moment the KGB just can break into your house and detain you in front of your children. There is no rule of law. You don’t know what colors you can wear. Is the combination of white and red safe? [The colors of the opposition flag]. Or if you donate 20 euros to the Ukrainian army, it costs you five years in prison. Or if you buy Christmas presents for children of political prisoners, and the regime says that you are supporting extremism, they put you in prison for 10, 15 years.
So while in 2020 we believed that millions of people in the streets will show this regime “we are against you, we want you to leave!” Now, when people are silenced, when people are underground, I don’t want people to be imprisoned in vain. We need people. We need people’s energy for a real moment of opportunity. And this circus and farce, it’s not the moment we are preparing for.
Kliment: What do you think will bring about that real moment of opportunity?
Tsikhanouskaya: It could be many scenarios. First, the fate of Belarus and Ukraine are intertwined because both our countries are fighting against the imperialistic ambitions of Russia. Lukashenko became a vassal to Putin, a puppet to Putin’s regime, providing all the necessary infrastructure, territory, and facilities for Russia[’s invasion of Ukraine]. The victory of Ukraine in this war will weaken Putin’s regime and hence weaken Lukashenko’s regime.
It could also be an internal coup d’etat in the regime. For years, the Belarusian people and Belarusian nomenklatura have seen that Lukashenko is a dead end for our country, for our independence, and for our sovereignty. Lukashenko is selling our country, piece by piece, to Russia. He doesn’t care about Belarusian national identity. He doesn’t care about the Belarusian nation. He cares only about his power. And Putin is the person who provides this power to Lukashenko. So elites understand that we can lose our country, that Lukashenko can make Belarus an appendix of Russia, and they don’t want that.
It could be economic issues. It can be a “hunger uprising.” Why not? Lukashenko is doing everything possible to isolate our country, committing crime after crime, making the democratic world impose sanctions.
It could be any black swan, like the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria was. And our task is to be prepared for this moment. We have to be strong enough. We have to be united. We have to keep our democratic partners in alliance with us and use this moment of opportunity for Belarus and bring changes.
Kliment: Right now, leaders and societies around the world are bracing for the impact of Donald Trump’s foreign policy. How might that affect Belarus generally, and affect your movement in particular?
Tsikhanouskaya: I want to remind free Americans that the United States of America was always a beacon of freedom and hope for countries who are fighting for democracy. We need examples. We need to see how a strong democracy is helping those who are sacrificing their freedom, sacrificing their lives for the values that your countries are based on.
We always saw the USA as our ally against dictatorship, against tyranny, against brutality and I want to believe that the USA will continue to help and assist those nations who are on the front line of this fight.
So for us, it’s important to show the new US government the strategic importance of Belarus in our region. How without free and democratic and independent Belarus, there will be no peace and security in the whole region.
Lukashenko is now a key player in the global network of autocrats helping each other circumvent sanctions and sustain dictatorships. Belarus has become a hub for smuggling sanctioned goods, laundering money, and facilitating weapons production.
So stand with us, help us to return our country to its people and to the European family of nations. It’s in the interest of global peace and security, and this is what the USA always was standing for.
Kliment: And under what circumstances do you hope to return to Belarus? What is the Belarus that you dream of going back to?
Tsikhanouskaya: My dream of Belarus is that my country is, first of all, a free country where people don’t live in constant fear. I want a Belarus that is not dependent on Russia. I want a Belarus that is a reliable neighbor for Western countries and not the source of constant threats and provocation as we are now. And I truly believe that with good governance, with good management, our country really can be among the most advanced countries in Europe. We have wonderful, hard-working, very disciplined, very patient, and peaceful people.
And this isn’t about hope, it’s about hard work, it’s about constant challenges, but it’s also about confidence. Because I see how, despite all the brutality of the regime, despite all the difficulties, the Belarusian people have not given up. We are an inspiration of how to be strong, how to be brave, and how to fight against dictators.
Kliment: Well, I will look forward to speaking with you on that day. Vyaliki dziakui [thank you very much] Sviatlana.
Tsikhanouskaya: Fantastic, thank you.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko take part in a signing ceremony following a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in Minsk, Belarus, on Dec. 6, 2024.
Viewpoint: With Putin’s protection, is Lukashenko’s reelection in Belarus a foregone conclusion?
Ahead of Sunday’s election in Belarus, there is little doubt that Alexander Lukashenko, Europe’s longest-serving leader, will win a new term in office. After the protests that erupted following the 2020 elections, threatening his grip on power for the first time, a government crackdown supported by Russia has eliminated any opposition to the president.
Yet a new term for the 70-year-old leader, who has complained about health problems, will likely raise questions about potential succession planning in his next term. Regardless of what comes next, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who considers neighboring Belarus a critical part of his country’s sphere of influence, will make sure its interests are protected.
We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Alex Brideau to learn more about the upcoming election.
What do we know about Lukashenko’s true level of support?
Lukashenko has been in power for more than 30 years, ever since he won Belarus’ first and only genuine democratic presidential election, held in 1994 a few years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Since then, it has been hard to tell just how genuine Lukashenko’s public support is. He has routinely won reelection in votes that were neither free nor fair. Many of his challengers have been arrested for standing against him.
Lukashenko’s reelection in 2020, though, demonstrated that whatever popularity he previously enjoyed had eroded and that his hold on power looked shaky. Public outcry over manipulated results that showed another landslide victory against a credible opposition candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, prompted major demonstrations that threatened Lukashenko’s hold on power for months. Major repression by the security forces and support from Russia allowed him to regain control of the situation.
Is there any chance of a repeat of the 2020 results or unrest?
This election is going to look very different from the anger of five years ago. Belarus’ security services continue to repress the formal opposition. Parties have been banned and their leaders have been arrested or forced to flee the country. Attempts to protest the results will be met with arrests and force, most likely. The regime may hope that holding the election in January instead of August, as happened in 2020, might limit the appetite for demonstrations. As for the election itself, there is little mystery as to who will win. Lukashenko won’t have a serious challenger, instead facing candidates who are considered to be loyal opposition.
What matters with this vote?
Given his age and past statements suggesting he is concerned about his health, there will be at least some question as to whether Lukashenko might consider a succession plan during his new term. Lukashenko has talked about stepping aside before, only to stay firmly in charge. And it’s doubtful that a succession plan would truly lead to him giving up his control. Lukashenko’s control of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly gives him a way to exert power if he decided he wanted to transfer the presidency to a loyalist.
How do outside powers view the election?
Russia will recognize the election results, allowing it to maintain its influence over Belarus. Lukashenko isn’t exactly liked in Moscow. His leadership has been considered erratic, and he has thumbed his nose at Moscow’s interests at times when it either helped him at home or when he tried (and failed) to cozy up to the West. But he has become even more dependent on Russian economic and military support since 2020, as Western governments imposed heavier sanctions and even restricted air travel from Belarus. Putin’s policies have treated Belarus much the same way he has approached Ukraine, seeing it as an integral part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Russia has used a bilateral “Union State” treaty from 1999 to boost its role in the country. If there were a crisis stemming from the election, Moscow could very well intervene to ensure that its control was intact.
How about the West?
The US and EU members, meanwhile, will not consider the election legitimate. But so far they aren’t saying all that much. Having already imposed a large number of sanctions against the economy and Belarusian leaders both before and after the 2020 crackdown, there is only so much they are able to do to affect Lukashenko’s control.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor of Eurasia Group.