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Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?
I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.
What does the resignation of Iran's Vice President Zarif signal about tensions in the country?
Well, given the fact that the finance minister was also just impeached this weekend, also a would-be reformist, a moderate, in the context of the Iranian political spectrum, it means the supreme leader and the conservatives do not trust these guys to engage with the Americans or the West. It's a harder line Iranian policy as they move towards greater levels of stockpiling, of enriched uranium, and as their military strategy has fallen apart for the region. If anyone is going to talk to the Americans, and if anyone is going to try to forestall attacks from Israel, and maybe by the US as well, it's not going to be the people that got the original Iranian nuclear deal done, the JCPOA. So, that's what it looks like in reform. Nascent under a lot of trouble. The Iranian president under a lot of pressure right now at home.
What's next for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire as the first phase comes to an end?
Well, I think what everyone is waiting for is the Egypt deal, which is being penned and is being sent over in advance of an Arab League summit to Trump in the coming hours, if not day. Originally, it was a few hundred pages long. The Saudis told the Egyptians, "Maybe you want to have an executive summary that's a little glossier for Trump? He's not reading a couple hundred pages." That's been worked on all weekend. And it certainly isn't the Americans owning Gaza. It certainly isn't the Palestinians being forced out or all voluntarily leaving. Whether or not Trump is prepared to sign off on that, or at least allow it to go forward and not veto it, as long as it hits that hurdle, I think you'll have pretty much all of the Arab states signing off on it in the Arab summit. That's where we are right now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Trump's call with Putin is big win for Kremlin
“We cannot afford to be reactive,” said Alina Polyakova, President and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), responding to the news of President Trump’s recent call with Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s conversation with Putin, which reportedly included discussions on reducing US commitments to NATO, has sent shockwaves through European security circles. Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recent remarks suggesting that Europe must take more responsibility for its defense have further fueled uncertainty among US allies.
Polyakova cautioned that authoritarian regimes are watching closely, using AI-driven disinformation and cyber warfare to exploit divisions. “The transatlantic alliance is at a crossroads,” she warned. “This is a moment where democracies must assert their leadership, not retreat.”
With European elections looming and global security tensions rising, the debate over the US commitment to its allies will remain a central issue in Munich in 2025—and one that will shape the future of Western security.
This interview, conducted by Tony Maciulis, is part of the Global Stage series at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
- Putin shouldn't test NATO unity, says analyst Alina Polyakova ›
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- The endless ends of Vladimir Putin ›
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- Ian Explains: Putin's Ukraine gamble ›
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 7, 2025.
Ukraine is on the line after Putin and Trump's phone call
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” on Wednesday, during which they discussed ending the Ukraine War. The hour-and-a-half-long call came the same day that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a gathering of allies at NATO headquarters that “the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” He also said it was “unrealistic” to return Ukraine’s borders to where they were before Russia’s invasion in 2014.
The Kremlin-White House call marked the end to Washington’s three-year-long effort to isolate Russia and Putin, signaling that ceasefire discussions could be coming soon. After the call, Trump said that he planned to tell Volodymyr Zelensky to “start negotiations immediately.”
It also raised concern that Ukraine could be entering negotiations under pressure from its biggest military backer. But Hegseth said Thursday in Brussels that there “is no betrayal there” of Kyiv.
To increase his leverage, Zelensky has offered to trade Ukraine’s critical minerals in exchange for continued US support, an offer that Trump has smiled upon, but not clarified whether it would be in exchange for future or past aid. The Ukrainian leader has also made the domestically controversial decision to begin recruiting men aged 18-24 through hefty bonuses to the tune of $48,000 over a year – a sum that would take 10 years for most to earn in Ukraine. This is an attempt to make up for Ukraine’s manpower deficit and to appease Trump, who has criticized the country for keeping the conscription age at 25.
Putin trolls Europe about "the master" Trump
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"?
It means that he loves to troll his adversaries. Don't you remember when he said that he actually thought Biden would be a better president from Russia's perspective than Trump? He trolls. It's all misinformation. It's propaganda. It's all served to undermine and show that he's powerful, and he can say whatever he wants. And of course, he would love to see a fight between the Americans and their allies, whether it's the Nordics on Greenland or it's Canada on 51st state, or it's Panama on the canal, or it's Europe on tariffs. And he wants to undermine the countries that gets a divide and conquer kind of response from Putin. And that is what he is doing when he trolls the Europeans.
What's next for Panama after deciding to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative?
Well, certainly, of all the countries that are facing a deeply asymmetric relationship on the back of threats from President Trump, Panama is high on that list. And they really are trying to find a way to avoid tariffs and avoid the Americans squeezing them on the canal. And an easy way to do that, because they've heard this now directly from Trump and from Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is that the Chinese have too much influence over transit. And that is particularly true through these port facilities that a Hong Kong-based company, read, China, is in charge of. And so, they are opening investigations into the contract and into how they engage there. And they're also saying they'll pull out of Belt and Road. All of that is clearly going to upset and antagonize the Chinese. And I think that the Panamanians are very, very comfortable showing that they are going to orient much more towards the United States, given how much more they rely on the Americans.
How would a potential Turkey defense pact with Syria reshape power dynamics in the Middle East?
Given who's on the ground in Syria and the fact that the Americans are likely to pull out the over 2,000 troops they have there, and that Trump has said it's really up to Turkey to maintain that relationship, they were the ones that were closest to the rebels that ended up defeating, overthrowing Assad's regime. Not surprised at all that that is where the diplomacy is heading. But that doesn't mean that it's going to be stable, and it certainly doesn't mean that the Kurds on the ground are going to be handled well. And that will be what we need to watch carefully. But Turkey, a NATO ally that has a lot of influence across the region and particularly now on the ground with Syria, I think that'll be relatively stable given the support from the United States. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Four reasons why Turkey is excited about the fall of Assad. ›
- Panama ditches key China initiative after pressure from Trump ›
- Putin's nuclear policy revision is a sign of weakness ›
- Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War ›
- Europe plans for Putin & Trump 2.0 ›
- Trump's dealmaking with Putin leaves Ukraine and Europe with nowhere to turn - GZERO Media ›
- Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance - GZERO Media ›
Trump renames EVERYTHING
The Gulf of Mexico is now the Gulf of America -- but Trump isn't stopping there. And there's one key world leader who has suddenly figured out how to take advantage of Trump's mass rebranding agenda... #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
Putin makes a stunning accusation at Trump
Putin doesn’t like that Trump is copying his style. So he does what anyone would do ... invade Canada. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
Trump and Putin together.
What can Trump offer Putin?
Trump has promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine within “a day.” That time frame isn’t realistic, but Trump does look likely to make a concerted push to stop the fighting.
The easy part will be pushing Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to the bargaining table. As Ukrainian forces struggle to hold their ground in the Donbas region and Russians launch more successful strikes on energy infrastructure ahead of winter, Kyiv’s dependence on Washington for weapons and finance continues to grow. Zelensky must take seriously any Trump threat to abandon Ukraine.
More challenging will be to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to offer the concessions needed to win anything more than an unstable cease-fire. Russian forces have taken heavy losses since the war began, but Putin has many more troops and future conscripts to draw on than Zelensky. Putin also appears to believe he can win a war of attrition that gives Russia a lot more Ukrainian land. With that in mind, it’s hard to see which carrots and sticks Trump can use to persuade Putin to negotiate in good faith.
Putin's Home Shopping Nyetwork
As Ukraine continues to get aid from the US and EU, Russia's president Vladimir Putin is adopting some Trumpian tactics to bring in more cash of his own. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!