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What can Trump offer Putin?
Trump has promised to end Russia’s war in Ukraine within “a day.” That time frame isn’t realistic, but Trump does look likely to make a concerted push to stop the fighting.
The easy part will be pushing Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to the bargaining table. As Ukrainian forces struggle to hold their ground in the Donbas region and Russians launch more successful strikes on energy infrastructure ahead of winter, Kyiv’s dependence on Washington for weapons and finance continues to grow. Zelensky must take seriously any Trump threat to abandon Ukraine.
More challenging will be to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to offer the concessions needed to win anything more than an unstable cease-fire. Russian forces have taken heavy losses since the war began, but Putin has many more troops and future conscripts to draw on than Zelensky. Putin also appears to believe he can win a war of attrition that gives Russia a lot more Ukrainian land. With that in mind, it’s hard to see which carrots and sticks Trump can use to persuade Putin to negotiate in good faith.
Putin's Home Shopping Nyetwork
As Ukraine continues to get aid from the US and EU, Russia's president Vladimir Putin is adopting some Trumpian tactics to bring in more cash of his own. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
Why Trump-Putin calls are cause for concern
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
As another hurricane hits Florida, how is information complicating disaster relief efforts?
Well, the heads of FEMA are saying this is by far the worst misinformation environment they've ever seen around a natural disaster, and it makes life a lot more difficult. First of all, it means a lot of people that need help aren't getting help, a lot of people that need to evacuate aren't evacuating, and it undermines the morale of the people that are working to try to help respond to the hurricane. So, for all of these reasons, when you have people saying that the money isn't actually being sent or it's being displaced, or that there are blockades, all of these things, if there's ever a time that you need scientists and authorities to be believed and listened to, it's in a national emergency. We saw these problems with the pandemic working with a lot of uncertainty, and you now see this working with a hurricane, working with a lot of certainty. So, even in an environment that should be depoliticized should be very straightforward that everyone comes together, it doesn't matter if you're red or blue. If you're getting hit by a hurricane, you need the same information. You need the same services that's being undermined by a disinformation environment. My God, am I worried about that in the aftermath of the US election in November. People should not sleep on how challenging it's going to be to get through that.
What do Southeast Asian leaders hope to accomplish at the ASEAN regional summit?
Well, the big thing they hope to accomplish, and this is not an organization like the EU or NATO; it's a pretty disparate group of countries that have very different political and economic systems and values and preferences; not a lot of common authority, but certainly, they all want to see an end to the civil war that has been expanding in Myanmar. And so the top issue is can they collectively push for diplomatic engagement between the two sides that have not been willing to talk to each other? Certainly, that is Secretary of State Tony Blinken's hope and effort in his attendance right now. We'll see if it goes anywhere, but it's increasingly disruptive for economics, for infrastructure, supply chain across the region, and right now, it is getting worse.
What do you make of reports that Trump stayed in touch with Putin after leaving office?
We heard from Bob Woodward, this new book coming out, some seven direct conversations, phone calls that Trump had with Putin since leaving the presidency, which does surprise me a little, honestly. We know that Zelensky really wanted to have one conversation with Trump a few weeks ago during the United Nations meetings on the sidelines, and it looked like that wasn't going to happen, and then finally it did. Certainly, for those that are concerned that Trump and Putin are continuing engagement and that means that Zelensky might be thrown under the bus, there's more reason to be concerned about that given those ongoing conversations. Certainly, you'd want to know what they're about. Trump does want an end to the war. Frankly, most of the world is aligned with him and wanting an end to the war, and I think it's useful to be able to talk with Putin directly. Frankly, I think that people like Biden and Ursula von der Leyen and the NATO secretary general should be talking to Putin even though there is a war going on that they're on opposite sides of, because it would help potentially long-term reduce tensions and lead to a greater potential of a negotiated settlement. But that's very different from a bunch of conversations that had not been discussed and that aren't necessarily trusted.
Trump's seven calls to Putin
Bob Woodward's new book "War" claims Trump phoned the Russian president seven times after he left office -- we have exclusive tape of those calls and you won't BELIEVE what you hear. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
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