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Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Qatar suspends Hamas-Israel mediation efforts
The Gulf Arab emirate announced this weekend it would stop mediating efforts to broker a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Hamas and Israel until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”
For months, talks have failed, despite efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. Hamas demands a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, while Israel, which has sworn to destroy Hamas, insists on only a temporary truce and the right to occupy the enclave indefinitely.
Relatedly, reports suggested the Qataris, under US pressure, have asked Hamas political leaders to leave the kingdom, where they have enjoyed a safe haven for more than a decade.
Qatar, a US ally, has long served as a channel for talks with Hamas and other groups listed as terror organizations by the West.
Whether Qatar’s gambit will revive productive talks remains to be seen, but with Benjamin Netanyahu now comfortably awaiting the return of his close ally Donald Trump to the White House, it may put more pressure on Hamas than on the Israelis.
While the group could relocate elsewhere, there are no viable options that would offer channels to the West as direct as Qatar’s. Meanwhile, Trump, who has promised to “end” the conflict, has reportedly spoken with Netanyahu at least three times since the election alone.
For a broader look at how Trump 2.0 might shake up US foreign policy, including on the Middle East, see our recent report here.Demonstrators hold placards as they take part in a rally calling for the release of hostages kidnapped in the deadly October 7 attack on Israel by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas from Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 25, 2024.
Palestinian Authority PM resigns amid truce talks for Gaza
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyehtendered his resignation to President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday, in a move that could set the stage for Gaza’s future government. Meanwhile, negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza have resumed in Doha between “experts” from Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, and representatives of Hamas.
What are the terms?
According to a framework drawn up in Paris on Friday, hostilities would pause for six weeks. Hamas would release approximately 40 hostages, while Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israeli troops would be “redeployed” within Gaza, but not fully withdraw as Hamas had demanded. Israel would also enable the return of Palestinian women and children to northern Gaza.
The clock is ticking
March 10 marks the start of Ramadan and is considered the unofficial deadline for the talks. War cabinet minister Benny Gantz has said Israel will expand its offensive into Rafah if there is no hostage release deal by then.
Will a deal stave off operations in Rafah?
Not necessarily. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel’s incursion into Rafah “will be delayed somewhat” if the parties reach a hostage deal but will still happen. According to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, however, “the White House hasn't seen any Israeli plan for an operation in Rafah and for keeping Palestinian civilians safe,” and that no action in Rafah should go ahead in its absence.Why did Shtayyeh resign?
Longer term, the United States has been pressuring the PA to clean up its act. Washington envisions a technocratic PA government overseeing post-war Gaza, but with its reputation for corruption and low esteem in the eyes of West Bank residents, a major government overhaul is seen as indispensable.
The Palestinian Authority has not held elections in nearly two decades, with Abbas ruling by presidential decree since the expiration of his nominally four year long term. The last time they attempted to democratically choose leadership, in 2006, Hamas won control of Gaza and pushed the Palestinian Authority out by force within a year. We have our eye on how the PA decides its future leadership, and whether a return to Gaza is even a feasible proposition.
Israeli soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in this handout picture released on January 28, 2024.
Israel and Hamas may be close to a cease-fire. Has the war already spun out?
A drone attack launched by Iran-aligned militants in Syria on Sunday killed three US soldiers stationed in Jordan, even as CIA Director William Burns was in Paris for high-level talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials over a possible cease-fire and hostage exchange with Hamas. The contours of any deal are not yet clear, but The New York Times reported a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for around 100 remaining hostages.
US President Joe Biden spoke with the Emir of Qatar on Friday, and we’re watching for signs that US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk might be dispatched to the region, which could signal a deal is at hand.
“Burns is pushing for some form of a deal that the Qataris can pressure Hamas to accept,” said Ayham Kamel, a Eurasia Group expert on Middle East policy. The Biden administration is reportedly considering slowing weapons shipments to Israel to build leverage on that side of the negotiations.
A cease-fire can’t come soon enough for the approximately 2 million Gazans reliant on aid to survive after fighting has rendered the vast majority of homes unsafe. Over 26,000 have been killed since the start of the conflict, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.
We’re also watching for how any cease-fire plays out among Iranian proxies. Kamel said the attack on US troops amplified the pressure on Washington to seal a cease-fire, and the Houthis targeted a US destroyer with a missile on Saturday. If the fighting stops in Gaza but continues in the Red Sea and Fertile Crescent, it may be a sign the war has already spun out of hand.
A picture taken on 20 April 2023 shows a general view of the West Bay skyline in Doha corniche at sunrise in Doha,Qatar on 20 April 2023
Qatar: The little country that could
It has one of the highest per capita incomes in the world, is one of the biggest landowners in the UK, boasts a sovereign wealth fund of $475 billion, and even owns a sizable piece of the Empire State Building. And yet its population is smaller than Madrid’s.
Of all the countries in the Middle East, there’s perhaps no other that punches above its weight more than Qatar. The tiny, exorbitantly wealthy Persian Gulf nation of roughly 2.7 million people has garnered incredible regional and even global influence – and constantly seems to be involved in the biggest stories of the day.
In 2022, the eyes of the world were on Qatar as it hosted the FIFA World Cup. More recently, Doha has been at the center of cease-fire negotiations in the Israel-Hamas war that began in October. It’s also been tied to less flattering stories, including new allegations of corruption against US Sen. Bob Menendez, who until recently chaired the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
But how did Qatar become so powerful?
It’s all part of the plan. In the mid-1990s, Qatar set itself on a strategic path to build its wealth and increase its international influence, says Raad Alkadiri, former managing director for energy and climate at Eurasia Group.
Qatar invested heavily in liquified natural gas (LNG), bringing in US and European companies as part of this effort. It’s now one of the top exporters of LNG in the world.
The Gulf state also invited the US to set up an air base within its borders after Saudi Arabia refused. Al Udeid Air Base, which the US has been operating since 2001, is the largest US military base in the Middle East.
All of this was about “national security as much as anything else,” says Alkadiri. Qatar is situated in an often volatile region, and is surrounded by larger, potentially threatening neighbors like Saudi Arabia and Iran. Building relationships with powerful countries such as the US serves as a layer of protection for Qatar.
Hedging its bets. Qatar has been “very careful not to put its eggs in one basket,” says Alkadiri, and “agility” has been key to its success.
Nowhere is this more clear than in its striking diplomatic agility: at the same time that it hosts a major US military presence, it also maintains close ties with Washington’s biggest regional foe: Iran. Qatar and Iran share the world’s largest natural gas field, the North Dome/South Pars, which for years has helped fill Doha’s coffers – giving it ample reason to stay on Tehran’s good side.
Doha has also long cultivated ties with Islamist political groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and the Taliban. Qatar, for example, has pumped millions of dollars into Gaza over the years (with Israel’s approval), while also hosting exiled Hamas political leaders.
By being open to dialogue and engagement with a wide array of actors, Qatar has put itself in a unique position to serve as a mediator in a number of conflicts. Qatar helped foster a temporary cease-fire in Gaza late last year that coincided with the release of hostages taken on Oct. 7. Doha has also served as an interlocutor between Washington and the Taliban, both before and after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Doha has gone hard on soft power too. It’s invested in everything from art to sports as part of a deliberate strategy that gives it the ability to “pull different levers when it needs to.”
Qatar Sports Investments, a subsidiary of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, owns the Paris Saint-Germain Football Club (PSG) in France – one of the most prestigious soccer teams in Europe (Kylian Mbappé, widely considered one of the best players in the world, is on PSG).
The Qatari state also helped put itself on the international map by founding Al Jazeera in the mid-1990s. Al Jazeera’s critical reporting on an array of issues in the region has also made the outlet, and Doha by association, a target of various governments – but it’s also given Qatar outsized influence in its neighborhood and the wider world.
“They have always sought to give themselves room for maneuver and have used energy, the media, money, and long-standing relations with Islamist groups as a way of being able to achieve that,” says Alkadiri.
No absolutes. It’s no secret that Qatar’s insistence on charting its own path has led to blowback from its neighbors at times – most notably in the form of a 2017-2021 blockade involving Saudi Arabia and several other Arab countries.
The blockade was influenced by Qatar’s relatively amicable relations with Iran, a longtime rival of Riyadh. Its relationships with Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, which pushes a conservative interpretation of Islam and is considered to be a terrorist group by the Saudi government, also drove Qatar’s neighbors against it. The US played a role in ending the blockade, which ultimately did little to nothing in terms of altering Qatar’s foreign policy.
Qatar used the various measures at its disposal to ensure it has the level of independence and international support necessary to withstand the blockade, says Alkadiri.
And though Qatar leveraged its connections with Hamas to help secure the release of hostages last year, Israel and the US have also criticized Doha for continuing to host Hamas officials amid the war in Gaza. “The Israelis, up to Oct. 7, were quite happy to rely on Qatar's relations with Hamas as part of Israel's policy in the region,” says Alkadiri.
But Alkadiri also emphasized that none of this is to say that Qatar does not have an “ugly underbelly.”
The Gulf state is, after all, led by an emir who has absolute power and has often faced criticism on human rights issues. But with ample cash to splash out and a diplomatic rolodex that also serves as an invaluable form of currency, Doha has managed to avoid much censure over these issues.
Qatar has “never had absolutes,” says Alkadiri. “It’s always had wavy edges. That’s served it well.”
How Qatar became the mediator
After weeks of devastating fighting, Qatar helped mediate a temporary truce between Israel and Hamas that opened the door for exchanges of hostages and prisoners. So how has Qatar, a nation that doesn’t have official diplomatic relations with Israel, played such an outsized role in this process?
Why Qatar: The Gulf state has repeatedly served as a mediator in conflicts across the Middle East and beyond, offering itself as a bridge of communication between historic, bitter adversaries like the US and Iran, the US and the Taliban, Ukraine and Russia, and Israel and Hamas. The tiny, gas-rich, wealthy nation has sought to boost its global profile over the past decade or so by serving in this capacity – and it’s had help from the US government along the way.
Qatar is home to the largest US military base in the Middle East – Al Udeid Air Base, which the US has been operating out of since 2001 – and its role as a mediator has “been largely a strategy pursued in coordination with Washington to deal with different regional issues,” says Ayham Kamel, head of Eurasia Group’s Middle East and North Africa research team.
But it’s also in Qatar’s DNA. Mediating conflict, says Patrick Theros, former US ambassador to Qatar, is “quite literally in Qatar’s Constitution,” and it’s seen as a key part of the country’s national security strategy.
Stability starts at home. Qatar views mediation as a vital means of maintaining regional stability and reducing its own security risks. “Qatar is, by citizen population, the smallest state in the Gulf region and, per capita, the richest in the Gulf and arguably the world. It is surrounded by predatory larger and stronger neighbors,” Theros notes.
Qatar was blockaded from 2017 to 2021 by Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries that accused Doha of supporting terror groups and of being too close to Iran. This episode highlighted the risks that Qatar’s approach to foreign affairs can pose, but those risks have also paid off in big ways.
The US, which played a role in ending the blockade, clearly sees Qatar’s desire to be a peacemaker in a prickly region as advantageous to its interests. In October, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken lauded Qatar as a “close partner” to the US on a range of crucial issues.
Doha has secured the “protection of powerful outside powers” like the US by making itself “indispensable” with its mediation efforts, Theros said.
Elements of leverage: Qatar has been engaging with Israel since the 1990s, and since 2012, it has also hosted a political office for Hamas, which Doha says was opened at the request of the US. This gives Qatar a degree of influence over the militant group, and some exiled senior Hamas officials live in Qatar, which has also poured hundreds of millions of dollars of aid into Gaza.
Doha maintains “good credible relations with a lot of less than nice parties” that Washington can’t engage with directly and has hosted groups like Hamas and the Taliban “at the express request of the US,” says Theros.
Some prominent Israeli politicians are not thrilled that Qatar has been tapped as a peacemaker in the conflict given its relationship with Hamas. There has also been some pushback regarding Qatar’s ties to Hamas from pro-Israel politicians in the US. But Doha maintains that keeping the Hamas office open allows Qatar to be a channel of communication, which benefits the US and Israel, as we’ve seen this past week.
“In the Israel-Hamas conflict, Qatar has proven itself to be one of the few viable channels to pressure Hamas to conduct deals on releasing Israeli hostages,” Kamel says. “At this point, the US is leveraging Qatar's influence to release as many hostages as possible while still maintaining support for Israel's objective of eliminating the Hamas threat.”
REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
US pushes for longer Israel-Hamas truce
Top US officials are in the Middle East this week to try to prolong the fragile, temporary truce between Israel and Hamas made possible by the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
CIA Director Bill Burns, who was in Qatar on Tuesday as part of this push, is reportedly urging Hamas and Israel to embrace a broader agreement that would allow for the release of men and military personnel. Until now, the deal has only involved the release of women and children.
Sec. of State Antony Blinken is also set to visit Israel and the occupied West Bank this week, where he’ll discuss “continued efforts to secure the release of remaining hostages,” according to the State Department.
While the Biden administration and others pushing for a longer truce may succeed in getting a short-term extension – Israel has said it would add a day for every 10 hostages released, and the truce was extended by two days on Monday – there are serious doubts that a lengthier pause is in the cards anytime soon given the Israeli government’s vocal commitment to continuing the war.
The obstacle: Qatar, which has served as a mediator between the warring parties, says more than 40 of the 240 hostages seized on Oct. 7 are not held captive by Hamas. Dozens are reportedly being held by another militant group in Gaza – the Palestinian Islamic Jihad – that wants greater concessions from the Israeli government.
Israel has indicated that it will resume its Gaza offensive unless hostages continue being released. And even if all the hostages were freed, Netanyahu – whose political days are numbered, with recent polling showing that most Israelis want him to resign –- has made it clear he intends to destroy Hamas.
TL;DR: The conflict is paused, but far from over.
Israel-Hamas war: Hostage release doesn't mean the end is near
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. And yes, we are back to the Israel-Gaza war and it is at least a little bit of good news with some hostages finally being released over a month and a half from when they were originally taken. That has gotten us some Palestinian prisoners released, some humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza and a ceasefire for a few days. And indeed, looks like it will now plausibly be extended for another day or two as more hostages are being let go.
Got to give Qatar a lot of credit here for playing a role in negotiating between Israel and Hamas. Not an easy thing to do. Qatar, an ally of the United States, the biggest military base on the ground, but also a government that has allowed the political leadership of Hamas to live inside their territory in peace and security as they have Taliban leadership for years. And that proves to be useful for both the Americans and the Israelis, more on that later. But is this potentially the beginning of the end of the war? And on that front, I think we have to say absolutely not for a few reasons.
First of all, because there are still well over 100 hostages and they're going to be much harder to get released because here you're not talking about women and children. You're talking about men of fighting age, and in some cases you're talking about soldiers. And Hamas is going to demand a lot more in return. And the Israelis are going to be very reluctant to provide it. So first, I don't expect that's going to happen. And as long as there are hostages on the ground, there's still going to be an awful lot of fighting from the Israeli side.
Secondly, we still have a Hamas leadership, a military leadership active in the north of Gaza. Their ability to continue to fire rockets and their ability to continue to have command and control infrastructure, that's not been destroyed. And the Israeli military saying that it's probably another two months of fighting that they need in the war. By the way, this is about a month after they told the Americans privately that there would be 4 to 6 weeks required.
Now, part of that is, hey, just say the absolute minimum so you get support from the US. You can always extend it later. It's a tactic, but also because it's proving to be more challenging on the ground than the Israeli Defense Forces had anticipated. Not to mention the fact they haven't started fighting in the south, where they told all the Palestinian civilians to evacuate to, but there are also Hamas militants operating in the south. And so Israel intends to try to take them out as well. In other words, we're still talking about weeks, maybe months of active fighting.
The other thing I will say, though, is that the level of pressure on Israel internationally to stop that fighting is going to grow a lot. You've seen the Chinese, the Gulf states, the Egyptians, the Jordanians and Europeans, many Europeans, though not all, and increasingly many inside the United States as well, now actively calling for a ceasefire. And Biden even saying, President Biden, something he had been saying privately, but is now saying publicly that he might be willing to condition further military and financial support to Israel on the basis of Israeli behavior on the ground in the war. And he's very concerned, certainly as everyone is, about the level of civilian casualties that we've all seen in Gaza. Now, does that mean that Israel is no longer America's top ally? No. Under no circumstances can I see that. And Biden would not move in that direction, not personally and not politically. But I could see, for example, some high tech offensive weaponry being held back by the Americans for example, becoming more controversial.
And I also see that happening from Democrats in the House and in the Senate. Again, this is no longer a matter of just a small number of hard-line progressives on the squad in the House. This is much broader. I think we are at the point where Israel has probably lost some degree of support from the United States permanently. The demographics in the United States and how they feel about Israel and what that means politically for the country longer term has shifted. And certainly you can now see things in mainstream media that never would have been printed sort of even three months ago, never mind ten years ago, about their feeling of how Israel does and doesn't run a democracy, nature of the occupation in the West Bank, nature of detentions of those that are accused of, but not yet convicted of crimes, and on and on and on. That level of attention, which only grows, that level of scrutiny that only grows, the longer this war goes on. And of course, the longer we see massive civilian casualties on the ground, that's going to be more challenging for Israel.
There also remains what is the plausible long-term impact of all of this. And for now, it just looks like misery and it's very hard to imagine how the Palestinians could ever come to peace in the region until they have an option that looks attractive. And right now, if you're a Palestinian in Gaza, the option is run away and find someplace to not get blown up. And they're not going to leave Gaza and they're not allowed to leave Gaza, even if they did want to leave Gaza and they don't want to. And then you have Palestinians in the West Bank who are living on smaller and smaller pieces of territory and their lives have become more and more challenging. So, I mean, clearly, at some point, the Israeli government, with a lot of international support and pressure, are going to need to provide meaningful opportunities for the Palestinian people.
And we are not close to that. We are still talking about more war, not less, and less opportunities for building peace, not more. I hope that that will turn in the coming weeks and months. Certainly the international pressure is turning, but not yet the situation on the ground. From that perspective, we're still going to be talking about this quite a bit.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Israel-Hamas war: "Just bring them back," says brother of 9-year-old Israeli hostage ›
- Why Israel’s war aims may “break Israeli society”: a conversation with Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin ›
- Third hostage and prisoner exchange goes ahead, but will there be ... ›
- Dealing with Hamas: What a former hostage negotiator learned ›
- The debate over a “cease-fire” for Gaza ›
Protesters hold signs demanding the liberation of hostages being held in the Gaza Strip after they were seized by Hamas gunmen on Oct. 7, in Tel Aviv, on Nov. 21, 2023, just hours before the announcement of a four-day cease-fire.
Israel and Hamas: A cease-fire, if you can keep it
Well, we were told to ignore all rumors about a hostage release deal until something was announced officially, so we did.
But now it’s for real: Late Wednesday, Israel’s cabinet approved a limited cease-fire with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of some of the roughly 240 hostages that Hamas abducted during its Oct. 7 rampage through southern Israel. The deal was brokered with help from the US and Qatar.
The terms: Israel will suspend its assault on Gaza for a period of four days, during which time Hamas will release 50 of the hostages, and Israel will release 150 of the nearly 8,000 Palestinians currently jailed in Israel.
Israel will not withdraw any of its forces from Gaza during that time.
Around 300 humanitarian aid trucks will be allowed into the Gaza Strip for each day of the cease-fire.
Israel may prolong the cease-fire by one day for every additional 10 hostages released by Hamas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to continue Israel’s military action in Gaza after the cease-fire is over.
The pressure: The Israeli government has sworn to destroy Hamas in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attacks, but it has also come under intense pressure at home to secure the release of the hostages.
International demands for a cease-fire, meanwhile, have grown as well. The death toll from Israel’s assault on Gaza has now surpassed 12,000 people, according to local health authorities, while more than two-thirds of Gaza’s 2.2 million population have been displaced. Israeli blockades of humanitarian aid and fuel have exacerbated a gruesome humanitarian crisis in the densely packed enclave.
The catch: It’s not clear when the cease-fire will go into effect. Thursday would be the earliest, as Israel must leave time for any local court challenges to the release of specific Palestinian prisoners, whose names will be made public on Wednesday.
The concern: Agreeing to a cease-fire and hostage release is a major breakthrough, but it’s only a beginning. There is little trust between Hamas and Israel, and both sides will need to maintain strict control over their forces to observe the cease-fire. Even the slightest of perceived provocations could spiral into fresh violence that wrecks the deal entirely.