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Tony Blair: 3 challenges will define geopolitics in the near future
Over 48 hours in early September, the United Kingdom got a new prime minister and a new monarch. Liz Truss and Charles III take over at a turbulent time in British politics: UK is suffering from a stagnant economy, sky-high energy prices aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine, more Brexit fallout with the EU over the Northern Ireland protocol, and Scots demanding a fresh independence vote.
(Note: This interview appeared as part of an episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Upheaval in UK: the sobering challenges facing new PM Truss & new King Charles III, on October 3, 2022, prior to Liz Truss' resignation as prime minister.)
In an in-depth interview for GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks about all of these issues with former prime minister Tony Blair, who recalls what it was like to meet Queen Elizabeth II for the first time. (His first impression: deep respect for her historical experience.)
To those who view the monarchy as an outdated institution, he says: don't worry, it's (pretty) safe. How about the economy? Blair believes there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two if Truss insists on big tax cuts and big borrowing.
Blair, who wanted UK to remain in the EU, doesn't think Brexit will end up fragmenting the country. But he admits Brexit has given fresh impetus to both Scottish nationalists and those who want a united Republic of Ireland.
For Blair, three challenges will define geopolitics in the near future: the Western relationship with China, making democracy more effective, and harnessing the tech revolution. How can we address them? “We need to return to the center to match challenges that'll be more practical than ideological,” he says.
UK's Liz Truss & Charles III face tough challenges ahead
In early September, in just 48 hours the UK got a new prime minister (Liz Truss) and a new king (Charles III, after the death of Queen Elizabeth II).
Both take over at a turbulent time in British politics, but Truss in particular faces a list of domestic obstacles with no easy fix. Her top priorities are the economy and the energy crisis aggravated by Russia's war in Ukraine, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
And then, of course, there's Brexit, which never seems to go away. Truss is bracing for a fight with Brussels over the Northern Ireland protocol.
Meanwhile, Charles III will also have to grapple with the future of the Commonwealth and the looming threat of another Scottish independence vote.
This clip is part of the GZERO World episode on upheaval in the UK. Watch here.
Upheaval in UK: the sobering challenges facing new PM Truss & new King Charles III
In early September, in just 48 hours the UK got a new prime minister (Liz Truss) and a new king (Charles III, following the death of Queen Elizabeth II).
Both take over at a turbulent time in British politics, with no shortage of current and future challenges. To name just a few: a stagnant economy, sky-high energy prices, more Brexit fallout with the EU, and Scots demanding a fresh independence vote.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to former British PM Tony Blair (1997-2007), who believes there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two if Truss insists on big tax cuts and big borrowing.
Blair also looks back at the queen's legacy and the future of the monarchy, explains why Brexit will hurt but probably not fragment the UK, and defends why we need to return to his comfort zone of the political center to fix today's problems.
- What is the Commonwealth? - GZERO Media ›
- Queen Elizabeth's death marks turning point for the UK - GZERO ... ›
- Remembering Queen Elizabeth II - GZERO Media ›
- Britain's next prime minister - GZERO Media ›
- Liz Truss' unenviable new gig - GZERO Media ›
- Tony Blair on Liz Truss & a post-Brexit UK on the brink - GZERO Media ›
- US debt limit: default unlikely, dysfunction probable - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: "United" Kingdom? Tony Blair on Truss, Charles, Brexit, and division in UK & beyond
Listen: In the span of just 48 hours in early September, the United Kingdom got a new prime minister, Liz Truss, and a new monarch, King Charles III. Both face big challenges in their new roles. For Truss, the Tory leader: a range of issues from inflation to the ongoing fallout of Brexit. For Charles: the relevance of the monarchy itself, now that Britain's longest-serving and much-beloved queen is gone. The United Kingdom also faces staggering inflation and a looming energy crunch. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer talks with a man who occupied 10 Downing Street for a decade - former prime minister Tony Blair - about the road ahead for his country. Blair believes there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two if Truss insists on big tax cuts and big borrowing. He also looks back at the queen's legacy and the future of the monarchy, explains why Brexit will hurt - but probably not fragment - the UK, and argues that we need to return to his comfort zone of the political center to fix today's problems.
Tony Blair: UK monarchy is "unifying" & "supported in British society"
Tony Blair has fond memories of the late Queen Elizabeth II.
Speaking to Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, the former British PM recalls what it was like to meet her for the first time. His first impression: deep respect for her historical experience.
For Blair, the queen was pretty much the only constant feature of life in the UK throughout all the social changes the country has seen since she was crowned in the 1950s.
To those who view the monarchy as an outdated institution, the former British PM says: don't worry, it's safe.
- What is the Commonwealth? - GZERO Media ›
- Queen Elizabeth's death marks turning point for the UK - GZERO ... ›
- Remembering Queen Elizabeth II - GZERO Media ›
- The end of an era: Queen Elizabeth II dies - GZERO Media ›
- Liz Truss' unenviable new gig - GZERO Media ›
- Tony Blair on Liz Truss & a post-Brexit UK on the brink - GZERO Media ›
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People walk as Tower Bridge is reflected in a tribute to Britain's Queen Elizabeth.
What We’re Watching: Bidding farewell to a queen, mass graves in Kharkiv, Pelosi in Armenia
UK bids farewell to Elizabeth II amid trying times
Some 2,000 people attended the funeral for Queen Elizabeth II on Monday, including several hundred current and former world leaders, royals, and other dignitaries. US President Joe Biden, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, and leaders from much of the Commonwealth, attended the ceremony at Westminster Abbey, where Elizabeth II was married and crowned. (Invitations to attend the state funeral, the first since Winston Churchill died in 1965, were sent to heads of state or government of nearly every country except Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Russia, Belarus, and Myanmar.)
Hundreds of thousands visited the British capital for the queen's lying-in-state to pay their respects and thank her for her 70 years on the British throne. Once the ceremony is over, all eyes will turn to her son and successor, King Charles III, who takes over at a moment of deep uncertainty in the UK. While the monarch’s role is not political, a worsening cost-of-living crisis and energy crunch – combined with the revolving door of prime ministers since 2016’s Brexit vote – have left many Britons feeling disillusioned with the country’s leadership. What’s more, the 73-year-old Charles is hardly as popular as his beloved mother, and his ascent to the throne has already ignited a debate about the future of the British monarchy, both at home and in Commonwealth nations where he is now the nominal head of state.
Symbolically, Elizabeth II’s funeral takes place a day after the eighth anniversary of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, when 55% of Scots voted to remain part of the UK. But that was before Brexit … and with the more popular Queen Elizabeth in Buckingham Palace. Will her passing drive more support for Scotland to ditch the UK? We’ll be watching pro-independence Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who announced earlier this year that she wants to hold a second plebiscite on Scottish independence as soon as next year.
EU calls for international tribunal to investigate Russian crimes
The European Union presidency has called for an international tribunal to investigate Russian atrocities after mass graves were found on territory in the northern Kharkiv region recently reclaimed by Ukrainian forces. The Czech Republic, which currently holds the EU rotating presidency, made the call. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 440 bodies were found in mass graves in the city of Izium, though investigators say they expect that number to rise. What’s more, at least 10 torture chambers were discovered in the same city recently recaptured amid the Ukrainian northeastern counteroffensive that’s seen Kyiv recapture 6,000 square kilometers of land. The United Nations said it was dispatching a team to assist in the investigation in Kharkiv, while Ukrainian investigators pledged to build a war crimes case against Russia. Meanwhile, in a "60 Minutes" interview on Sunday, President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of “consequential” American action if the Kremlin uses nuclear weapons in the next stage of the war. Biden’s warning comes amid fears that Putin, increasingly isolated diplomatically, under fire at home, and frustrated by the lack of progress in the war, could up the ante by using unconventional weapons.
In Armenia, Pelosi blames Azeris for recent hostilities
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a congressional delegation to Armenia over the weekend, making her the highest-ranking US official to visit the former Soviet republic since it gained independence in 1991. The visit comes amid a violent flareup between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops near the long-disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inside Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority that has long claimed independence. At a press conference with the speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, Pelosi expressed support for Yerevan and condemned Baku for the latest round of aggression – though both sides blame the other for recent fighting that’s killed more than 200 people. In 2020, a weeks-long war between the two sides led to 6,500 deaths and large swaths of territory being handed over to Baku as part of a Russian-backed truce. (Moscow is technically treaty-bound to defend Armenia.) Pelosi’s visit comes just weeks after her controversial trip to Taiwan, which prompted a stern response from Beijing and irked the White House. Some analysts say that oil-producing Baku, feeling emboldened by increased global demand for oil and gas as well as Moscow’s preoccupation with Ukraine, took advantage of the geopolitical situation to relaunch hostilities. A ceasefire took hold in Nagorno-Karabakh in recent days, though some are skeptical that it’ll hold.
Soldiers of the Coldstream Guards carry flags of Commonwealth countries outside Buckingham Palace in London.
What is the Commonwealth?
She wasn’t just queen of the United Kingdom. The late Elizabeth II was also the leader of the Commonwealth, a voluntary association of 56 independent countries, the majority of which were once part of the British Empire. This includes 14 that continue to have the sovereign as their head of state.
The Commonwealth dates back nearly 100 years and predates the UN. Today it boasts 2.5 billion people, a quarter of the world’s land mass, and a combined GDP of $13.1 trillion in 2021. Formed in the interwar period — when many dominions, colonies, and protectorates were semi-independent or itching for freedom — it aims to offer support to fellow member governments and to improve the well-being of citizens throughout its family of nations.
It holds conferences and summits focused on democracy, cultural exchange, and trade, and manages election monitoring and games. But the Commonwealth has drawn criticism for underperformance and lack of transparency. Its charter pushes for democracy and economic growth, but like many international organizations, it has limited means for enforcement. The Commonwealth has also been accused of punishing some members with suspensions for undemocratic behavior (Nigeria, Fiji, and Pakistan) while overlooking others (Brunei).
India set the tone for the modern Commonwealth. Upon gaining independence in 1947, it made its position clear: it would maintain an affiliation with Great Britain but not fealty to the Crown and demanded independent status as a republic. Many others followed Delhi’s lead, while Australia, Canada, and New Zealand as well as much of the Caribbean chose to retain Elizabeth as their sovereign – a symbolic gesture in which the queen didn’t have much of a role beyond appearing on bank notes.
Leaving the Commonwealth is not unprecedented. In 2021, Barbados politely removed the queen as its head of state, withdrawing from the Commonwealth. Zimbabwe also withdrew in 2003 after a long suspension related to Robert Mugabe’s unruly years, followed by the Gambia in 2013, which later rejoined. Pakistan left in protest in 1972 after Commonwealth countries accepted the secession of East Pakistan into Bangladesh, but it rejoined with the return of democracy in 1989.
Leaders throughout the Commonwealth this week have paid tribute to the queen and to her dedication. But her demise has triggered questions in Australia about becoming a republic. Republican murmurings are also present in Canada, despite PM Justin Trudeau’s affectionate tribute to the queen: “She was one of my favorite people in the world.”
With the queen’s passing, King Charles III becomes the next leader of the Commonwealth. The role isn’t hereditary, but Commonwealth leaders agreed to his leadership before the queen’s death.
While much of the focus today is on the queen’s service over the last 70 years, the future role of the Commonwealth remains an open question. If the last summit this summer and the subsequent debates about the group’s colonial legacy is any indication, the Commonwealth could become yet another avenue in which the monarchy’s place in the modern order is debated.
King Charles III, in short, has his work cut out for him to maintain his mother’s beloved Commonwealth.