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Podcast: "United" Kingdom? Tony Blair on Truss, Charles, Brexit, and division in UK & beyond
Listen: In the span of just 48 hours in early September, the United Kingdom got a new prime minister, Liz Truss, and a new monarch, King Charles III. Both face big challenges in their new roles. For Truss, the Tory leader: a range of issues from inflation to the ongoing fallout of Brexit. For Charles: the relevance of the monarchy itself, now that Britain's longest-serving and much-beloved queen is gone. The United Kingdom also faces staggering inflation and a looming energy crunch. On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer talks with a man who occupied 10 Downing Street for a decade - former prime minister Tony Blair - about the road ahead for his country. Blair believes there will be a lot of uncertainty over the next year or two if Truss insists on big tax cuts and big borrowing. He also looks back at the queen's legacy and the future of the monarchy, explains why Brexit will hurt - but probably not fragment - the UK, and argues that we need to return to his comfort zone of the political center to fix today's problems.
People walk as Tower Bridge is reflected in a tribute to Britain's Queen Elizabeth.
What We’re Watching: Bidding farewell to a queen, mass graves in Kharkiv, Pelosi in Armenia
UK bids farewell to Elizabeth II amid trying times
Some 2,000 people attended the funeral for Queen Elizabeth II on Monday, including several hundred current and former world leaders, royals, and other dignitaries. US President Joe Biden, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, and leaders from much of the Commonwealth, attended the ceremony at Westminster Abbey, where Elizabeth II was married and crowned. (Invitations to attend the state funeral, the first since Winston Churchill died in 1965, were sent to heads of state or government of nearly every country except Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Russia, Belarus, and Myanmar.)
Hundreds of thousands visited the British capital for the queen's lying-in-state to pay their respects and thank her for her 70 years on the British throne. Once the ceremony is over, all eyes will turn to her son and successor, King Charles III, who takes over at a moment of deep uncertainty in the UK. While the monarch’s role is not political, a worsening cost-of-living crisis and energy crunch – combined with the revolving door of prime ministers since 2016’s Brexit vote – have left many Britons feeling disillusioned with the country’s leadership. What’s more, the 73-year-old Charles is hardly as popular as his beloved mother, and his ascent to the throne has already ignited a debate about the future of the British monarchy, both at home and in Commonwealth nations where he is now the nominal head of state.
Symbolically, Elizabeth II’s funeral takes place a day after the eighth anniversary of the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, when 55% of Scots voted to remain part of the UK. But that was before Brexit … and with the more popular Queen Elizabeth in Buckingham Palace. Will her passing drive more support for Scotland to ditch the UK? We’ll be watching pro-independence Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who announced earlier this year that she wants to hold a second plebiscite on Scottish independence as soon as next year.
EU calls for international tribunal to investigate Russian crimes
The European Union presidency has called for an international tribunal to investigate Russian atrocities after mass graves were found on territory in the northern Kharkiv region recently reclaimed by Ukrainian forces. The Czech Republic, which currently holds the EU rotating presidency, made the call. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 440 bodies were found in mass graves in the city of Izium, though investigators say they expect that number to rise. What’s more, at least 10 torture chambers were discovered in the same city recently recaptured amid the Ukrainian northeastern counteroffensive that’s seen Kyiv recapture 6,000 square kilometers of land. The United Nations said it was dispatching a team to assist in the investigation in Kharkiv, while Ukrainian investigators pledged to build a war crimes case against Russia. Meanwhile, in a "60 Minutes" interview on Sunday, President Joe Biden warned Russian President Vladimir Putin of “consequential” American action if the Kremlin uses nuclear weapons in the next stage of the war. Biden’s warning comes amid fears that Putin, increasingly isolated diplomatically, under fire at home, and frustrated by the lack of progress in the war, could up the ante by using unconventional weapons.
In Armenia, Pelosi blames Azeris for recent hostilities
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi led a congressional delegation to Armenia over the weekend, making her the highest-ranking US official to visit the former Soviet republic since it gained independence in 1991. The visit comes amid a violent flareup between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops near the long-disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave inside Azerbaijan with an ethnic Armenian majority that has long claimed independence. At a press conference with the speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, Pelosi expressed support for Yerevan and condemned Baku for the latest round of aggression – though both sides blame the other for recent fighting that’s killed more than 200 people. In 2020, a weeks-long war between the two sides led to 6,500 deaths and large swaths of territory being handed over to Baku as part of a Russian-backed truce. (Moscow is technically treaty-bound to defend Armenia.) Pelosi’s visit comes just weeks after her controversial trip to Taiwan, which prompted a stern response from Beijing and irked the White House. Some analysts say that oil-producing Baku, feeling emboldened by increased global demand for oil and gas as well as Moscow’s preoccupation with Ukraine, took advantage of the geopolitical situation to relaunch hostilities. A ceasefire took hold in Nagorno-Karabakh in recent days, though some are skeptical that it’ll hold.
Soldiers of the Coldstream Guards carry flags of Commonwealth countries outside Buckingham Palace in London.
What is the Commonwealth?
She wasn’t just queen of the United Kingdom. The late Elizabeth II was also the leader of the Commonwealth, a voluntary association of 56 independent countries, the majority of which were once part of the British Empire. This includes 14 that continue to have the sovereign as their head of state.
The Commonwealth dates back nearly 100 years and predates the UN. Today it boasts 2.5 billion people, a quarter of the world’s land mass, and a combined GDP of $13.1 trillion in 2021. Formed in the interwar period — when many dominions, colonies, and protectorates were semi-independent or itching for freedom — it aims to offer support to fellow member governments and to improve the well-being of citizens throughout its family of nations.
It holds conferences and summits focused on democracy, cultural exchange, and trade, and manages election monitoring and games. But the Commonwealth has drawn criticism for underperformance and lack of transparency. Its charter pushes for democracy and economic growth, but like many international organizations, it has limited means for enforcement. The Commonwealth has also been accused of punishing some members with suspensions for undemocratic behavior (Nigeria, Fiji, and Pakistan) while overlooking others (Brunei).
India set the tone for the modern Commonwealth. Upon gaining independence in 1947, it made its position clear: it would maintain an affiliation with Great Britain but not fealty to the Crown and demanded independent status as a republic. Many others followed Delhi’s lead, while Australia, Canada, and New Zealand as well as much of the Caribbean chose to retain Elizabeth as their sovereign – a symbolic gesture in which the queen didn’t have much of a role beyond appearing on bank notes.
Leaving the Commonwealth is not unprecedented. In 2021, Barbados politely removed the queen as its head of state, withdrawing from the Commonwealth. Zimbabwe also withdrew in 2003 after a long suspension related to Robert Mugabe’s unruly years, followed by the Gambia in 2013, which later rejoined. Pakistan left in protest in 1972 after Commonwealth countries accepted the secession of East Pakistan into Bangladesh, but it rejoined with the return of democracy in 1989.
Leaders throughout the Commonwealth this week have paid tribute to the queen and to her dedication. But her demise has triggered questions in Australia about becoming a republic. Republican murmurings are also present in Canada, despite PM Justin Trudeau’s affectionate tribute to the queen: “She was one of my favorite people in the world.”
With the queen’s passing, King Charles III becomes the next leader of the Commonwealth. The role isn’t hereditary, but Commonwealth leaders agreed to his leadership before the queen’s death.
While much of the focus today is on the queen’s service over the last 70 years, the future role of the Commonwealth remains an open question. If the last summit this summer and the subsequent debates about the group’s colonial legacy is any indication, the Commonwealth could become yet another avenue in which the monarchy’s place in the modern order is debated.
King Charles III, in short, has his work cut out for him to maintain his mother’s beloved Commonwealth.
King Charles III delivers his address to the nation and the Commonwealth from Buckingham Palace following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
What We're Watching: King Charles III addresses the nation, IAEA warns of potential Zaporizhzhia plant catastrophe
King Charles III makes first public address as monarch
King Charles III addressed the United Kingdom, the Commonwealth, and the world on Friday with a public address following the death of his mother, Queen Elizabeth II. Striking both a personal and formal tone, Charles paid tribute to his “darling mama” and her “unswerving devotion” to Britain. In discussing his faith, Charles said he was brought up to “cherish a sense of duty to others,” and he vowed to “solemnly pledge [himself] … to uphold the constitutional principles at the heart of our nation.” He also spoke about the changing roles of his wife, Camilla, his Queen Consort, and his son William and daughter-in-law, Katherine, who now assume the titles of Prince and Princess of Wales. As Charles’s address aired, a service of remembrance was held for the late monarch at London’s St. Paul’s Cathedral. Attendees included Britain’s newly installed prime minister, Liz Truss, who had her first meeting with the king earlier on Friday at Buckingham Palace. The queen’s coffin remains at Balmoral and will be moved this weekend to Holyrood, the royal residence in Edinburgh, where King Charles III – officially proclaimed the monarch on Saturday – and the Queen Consort will head on Sunday. A service will be held for the queen in Edinburgh on Sunday before her coffin is moved to London. Her funeral is expected to take place within two weeks at Westminster Abbey. World leaders, including President Joe Biden, will attend, paying tribute to a queen who worked with 15 prime ministers and met 13 US presidents throughout her 70-year reign.
IAEA warns of potential nuclear catastrophe at Zaporizhzhia
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Mariano Grossi, reiterated on Friday that a safe zone needs to be established around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine. The plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, came under Russian control at the beginning of the war – though Ukrainian staff continue to operate it. The plant accounted for 20% of Ukraine’s electricity production before the conflict and is coveted by Moscow because of its geographical proximity to Russian-occupied Crimea. Grossi issued a dire warning, saying that the situation at the plant – repeatedly hit by shelling that Russia and Ukraine blame on each other – is “unsustainable” and “increasingly precarious.” The plant has been cut off from Ukraine’s electricity grid since Monday, running on “emergency mode'' and relying heavily on diesel generators that will soon run out of fuel. These factors mean the risk of a nuclear catastrophe is steadily rising in a country long traumatized by the deadly events of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. Meanwhile, the IAEA Board of Governors, made up of 35 countries, meets next week, when it’s likely to pass a resolution calling on Russia to immediately withdraw from the nuclear site. But this will be largely symbolic as the group cannot force Moscow to abide by its resolution.
Queen Elizabeth's death marks turning point for the UK
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Chelm, in Eastern Poland.
The death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, is of course, a major, major event for the United Kingdom and for the world. She was really the last remaining link with an imperial past, with a turbulent and dramatic period for her country, and she gave it stability during a very long period of fundamental change. It will be another country as it enters the reign of King Charles III.
The end of an era: Queen Elizabeth II dies
There’s been an outpouring of grief across the UK – and the globe – after Queen Elizabeth II died Thursday at her estate in the Scottish Highlands at the age of 96.
BBC news presenters donned black suits even before her death was announced, while dignitaries and politicians prepared by purchasing black ties and armbands.
The Queen, who recently celebrated her Platinum Jubilee marking 70 years on the throne, was last seen in public earlier this week when she met with Britain's new prime minister, Liz Truss, at Balmoral Castle, her summer residence.
Elizabeth Windsor was never supposed to be Queen. Her uncle, Edward VIII, ascended to the throne in 1936 but soon abdicated so he could marry a divorced American socialite, going against the government and the Church of England to do so. Elizabeth’s father, George VI, replaced his older brother, making a young Elizabeth Windsor the new heir apparent.
When Elizabeth assumed the throne in 1952 at age 25, the world was a very different place. President Harry Truman occupied the White House and dictator Joseph Stalin was still at the helm of the Soviet Union. At home, Winston Churchill was serving his second stint at No. 10 Downing Street, and it was with this statesman that Queen Elizabeth II established a tradition of weekly audiences with the British prime minister. She worked with a total of 15 prime ministers during her 70-year reign.
For better or worse, the monarch’s role in Britain has always been strictly apolitical, and Queen Elizabeth II was long lauded for remaining above the fray of petty party politics and for not inserting herself in messy global affairs. Nonetheless, she saw a lot during her seven decades at the helm, and her official royal visits around the globe were laden with symbolism.
History in the making. During her first overseas visit as queen in 1953, Elizabeth II embarked on a months-long Commonwealth tour accompanied by her husband, Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh. She made stops in Jamaica and Fiji – which did not gain independence from the UK until 1962 and 1970, respectively – and visited Bermuda, Tonga, Australia, New Zealand, and Gibraltar, being met by adoring spectators along the way. For some royal detractors, however, these visits, laced with pomp and circumstance, were emblematic of the way the Royal Family long benefited from British colonialism.
In the mid-1960s, Queen Elizabeth, by then a mother of four, visited West Germany, marking the first visit of a British monarch to Germany in half a century. Coinciding with the 20th anniversary of the end of World War II, her visit became a symbol of European reconciliation after the two countries found themselves on opposite sides of a bloody war that forever changed the continent.
Indeed, the former monarch made a series of other historic trips during her reign. In 1986, Queen Elizabeth became the first British monarch to visit mainland China, where she expressed hopes for a resolution over Hong Kong’s status (two years earlier, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher agreed to return sovereignty over Hong Kong to China in 1997) and for stronger trade ties between London and Beijing. Her trip came during interesting times for China, then led by Deng Xiaoping. Student-led protests against corruption that year lit the match that would culminate in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.
In 2011, Queen Elizabeth became the first monarch to visit the Republic of Ireland (King George V visited in 1911 when the country was still part of the UK). This came just over a decade after the Good Friday Agreement was signed, with the trauma of the Troubles still rife. Her visit was hailed as a watershed moment, though relations remain fraught to this day, as demonstrated by messy post-Brexit negotiations.
A tumultuous present. The Queen’s oldest child, Charles, has become the new monarch. It's unclear when the official coronation ceremony, a religious pageant performed by the most senior cleric in the Church of England, will take place for King Charles III.
A lavish ceremony at this time would perhaps reflect poorly on the new king, who does not hold the same treasured place in the collective British psyche as his mostly beloved mother. (The Queen’s coronation ceremony cost the equivalent of 46 million pounds. Charles reportedly wants a more laid-back affair, but it would still be costly.)
The UK is mired in its worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, in large part because of soaring energy and rent prices. The Bank of England recently warned that the UK will likely face its longest recession since the global financial crisis in 2007, and inflation is slated to hit a staggering 18.6% early next year. Sky-high energy costs and post-Brexit shortages have fueled inflation rates that top those in the EU and the US, with the British poor and middle class being hit particularly hard.
The national mood in Britain is extremely grim. The death of a longtime national figurehead is yet another blow for a crisis-ridden country.
The queen was a beacon of stability in an era of domestic and international upheaval.
Queen Elizabeth II, Britain's longest-reigning monarch, dead at 96
Queen Elizabeth II, the longest-serving monarch in the history of the United Kingdom and virtually in world history, has died at the age of 96 in Balmoral, Scotland. She is succeeded by her son Charles, 73, now King Charles III.
Queen Elizabeth’s reign spanned roughly one-third of America’s entire existence (and nearly half of Canada’s, if you’re keeping count). Fifteen different UK prime ministers served under her, starting with Winston Churchill and ending with Liz Truss. During this time, the United Kingdom went from global power and industrial powerhouse to a post-European middle power. She lived through and reigned over the colonial era, the end of the British Empire, and the UK’s exit from Europe.
Under the British Constitution, the monarch is head of state of the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth. Although they are kept informed of all government activities through the Privy Council, their role is largely ceremonial and apolitical, with no part in government other than formally appointing prime ministers, accepting their resignation, and assenting to legislation.
Queen Elizabeth had long been the single most popular figure in the UK, seen as a beacon of stability in a fast-changing nation and a volatile world. The enduring popularity of the monarchy as an institution in Britain owes much to her.
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Queen Elizabeth II after her coronation in June 1953. PA Images
Queen Elizabeth remained utterly impartial through her 70-year reign. This contrasts with her son, now-King Charles III, who has been far less cautious over the years about allowing his political and policy opinions to reach the public’s ear. If the monarchy is to continue to succeed in the UK, the king will need to exercise greater restraint.
The queen’s death and succession will dominate headlines across the UK and the Commonwealth for some time, overshadowing Liz Truss’s first weeks as prime minister. The news will undoubtedly be received with enormous sadness by a public that’s been battered by two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, a shambolic Brexit process, a string of domestic political scandals, resurgent independent movements in Scotland and Ireland, and now the worst cost-of-living crisis of any major developed economy in the world.
Affection for the Queen has been a critical factor in keeping the United Kingdom and the Commonwealth together amid growing calls for independence. Republican movements in countries with constitutional parliamentary monarchies across the Commonwealth will likely grow stronger in the aftermath of her passing.
Until today, the queen was the only monarch the vast majority of Brits had ever lived under—not just the mother of modern Britain but also the matriarch of the British people, and a fixture of daily life. For the rest of us, she was the embodiment of Britain’s national identity and global power.
Queen Elizabeth was loved across the world in an extraordinary and singular way. King Charles has big shoes to fill. She will be missed.
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