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People gather to get food relief in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, on March 17, 2024.
In Gaza, food is scarce and famine is spreading
A group of UN-mandated experts on Tuesday warned that famine is spreading throughout the Gaza Strip, where at least 33 children have died of malnutrition since the end of May.
Food has been scarce in the enclave since the beginning of Israel’s ground invasion, due in part to Israeli restrictions on the entry of aid into Gaza. But the amount of humanitarian aid entering the enclave dropped by two-thirds when the war spread south to Rafah, dropping from an average of 176 aid trucks a day to just 58 because of the tightening of Egypt’s border with the region and the deadly security conditions.
Meanwhile, Israel accuses UN agencies of failing to distribute supplies efficiently and says the UN famine warnings amount to “misinformation.” The number of people the UN-backed global famine monitor forecasts as facing “catastrophic” food insecurity has dropped from 1.1 million to 495,000 people since its previous update in March.
Other solutions to increase aid – like the US-built temporary pier – only delivered 137 trucks of aid before collapsing due to inclement weather. The pier is expected to be reattached this week and should allow for millions of pounds of aid to enter from Cyprus.U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a joint press conference with Kenyan President William Ruto at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 23, 2024.
What is Biden’s red line in Rafah?
The White House on Tuesday said a recent Israeli airstrike that killed dozens of refugees in Rafah — reportedly with US-made bombs — did not cross President Joe Biden’s red line for withholding weapon shipments from Israel.
But that red line seems to have a lot of wiggle room.
Biden’s squiggly red line. Earlier this month, Biden said he would halt some arms shipments to Israel if “they go into Rafah” and operate in “population centers,” expressing concern for the massive number of civilians sheltering there.
Though much of the world is calling for an immediate end to the offensive as the death toll rises, the White House on Tuesday said that the Israeli assault on Rafah does not yet constitute a “major ground operation” that would lead Biden to change US policy toward the Jewish state — even as the IDF sends tanks into the southern Gaza city.
Between Bibi and a hard place. It’s an election year, and Biden has alienated many young voters — a key voting bloc — incensed over his continued support for Israel. But given his reluctance to change course, the president seems to be betting that this won’t ultimately hurt him that much at the ballot box and there’s evidence to support that.
Though recent polling suggests roughly half of the country disapproves of Israeli military actions in Gaza, Americans have historically been overwhelmingly pro-Israel, and Biden knows that — and he’s sticking with the Jewish state.
But it’s still a potentially dangerous gamble for Biden — as he is trailing former President Donald Trump in most crucial swing states.
And if Biden hopes the war will be over before Election Day, he might be disappointed. On Wednesday, an adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid that “fighting in Gaza will continue for at least another seven months.”
Palestinians search for food among burnt debris in the aftermath of an Israeli strike on an area designated for displaced people, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, on May 27, 2024.
Rafah refugee deaths draw condemnation
“A tragic mistake.” With those words, Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahuattempted to mitigate the fallout from last week’s airstrike in Rafah that killed 45 Palestinians sheltering in a refugee camp. The US National Security Council expressed heartbreak over the “devastating images,” and French President Emmanuel Macron called for an immediate cease-fire. Germany and Qatar also criticized the attacks, stressing the need for better protection of civilians.
“We are investigating the case and will draw conclusions because this is our policy,” Netanyahu told the Knesset on Monday. “For us it’s a tragedy, for Hamas it’s a strategy.”
But the deaths have intensified scrutiny of Israel, with the UN and international courts demanding a halt to the Rafah offensive. They also come as three European countries — Ireland, Norway, and Spain — are set to recognize Palestinian statehood on Tuesday. Israel described the decision as “rewarding terrorism” and recalled its envoys from the three countries for urgent consultations.
Amid the chaos, new peace negotiations are apparently set to commence, “led by the mediators, Egypt, and Qatar and with active US involvement,” according to a source who spoke with Reuters. However, Hamas later told the news agency that "there is no date" for the talks to resume.Displaced Palestinian woman Mai Anseir stands with children at a school where they shelter as they prepare to flee Rafah after Israeli forces launched a ground and air operation in the eastern part of the southern Gaza City, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip May 13, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Waves of Palestinians displaced, Deadly cartel violence in Mexico, Fatal riots in New Caledonia, Biden sanctions Nicaragua, Israeli soldiers killed by friendly fire
500,000: Over half a million people have been displaced in Gaza by recent Israeli military operations in Rafah and the northern part of the enclave, according to the UN. As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, over a million people in Gaza are on the verge of starvation, and a “full-blown famine” is occurring in the north.
11: Recent clashes between rival cartels in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas have killed at least 11 people, with two nuns and a teenager reportedly among the dead. The Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are fighting for control of the area.
4: At least four people are dead due to riots over electoral reform in New Caledonia, a Pacific island and French overseas territory. France declared a state of emergency over the situation, which grants authorities more power to ban gatherings and restrict movement.
250: The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Nicaraguan companies and visa restrictions on 250 people, accusing President Daniel Ortega’s government of “profiting off of irregular migration” to the US. Officials say the Nicaraguan government is exploiting migrants trying to reach the US by selling visas that require them to leave the country within 96 hours. Biden’s move aims to reduce the flow of migrants to the US — an issue that he continues to face pressure over with an election looming.
5: Five Israeli soldiers were killed in a friendly fire incident in northern Gaza on Wednesday, Israel’s military said today. The Israel Defense Forces have opened an investigation into the incident, which involved tank cross-fire in the town of Jabalia. Seven others were injured.
Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
- Biden threatens to cut off some weapons to Israel if Rafah invaded ›
- Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine ›
- All eyes on Russia ahead of Putin-Xi meeting ›
FILE PHOTO: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks with Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich during the weekly cabinet meeting at the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 7, 2024.
Netanyahu fires back at Biden over arms threat
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid Thursday his country would “stand alone” and fight “with its fingernails” if Joe Biden followed through on a threat to cut certain arms shipments to the Jewish state.
A day earlier, Biden said he’d stop sending certain kinds of shells, bombs, and other offensive weapons to Israel if Netanyahu proceeded with an invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than a million Palestinians, many displaced from elsewhere in Gaza, are currently sheltering as famine spreads across the strip.
No fingernails needed just yet. Biden’s decision is “a headline-grabbing move that has some eventual impact on Israeli capabilities,” says Clayton Allen, US analyst at Eurasia Group, “but which doesn’t hit at the bulk of US assistance or really diminish what they can do in the coming weeks.” State Department spokesman John Kirby said Thursday the US believes that “smashing into Rafah” isn’t the best way to defeat Hamas and has presented Netanyahu with other options.
What will Netanyahu do? Certain members of his Cabinet are pressuring him to flout Biden’s red line entirely. His ultranationalist security minister tweeted “Hamas ❤️Biden.” But is Netanyahu really willing to risk a deeper split with Israel’s superpower backer?
President Joe Biden speaks at a Holocaust remembrance ceremony at the US Capitol on May 7, 2024.
Biden’s “ironclad” support for Israel faces its sternest test
President Joe Biden has what appears to be a political mission impossible: finding a thread that unites the pearls of Democrat support over the war in Gaza.
The Israeli military has started pushing into Rafah, despite US warnings against ground operations. That will exacerbate political strains at home for Biden as he tries to hold together his coalition of forceful progressives, who are critical of Israel, and steadfast moderates, who support the Jewish state.
Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen said the decision to delay delivery of some offensive weapons, specifically systems that would be utilized in an expanded offensive in Rafah, while at the same time leaning into his public statements of support for Israel, reinforced the untenable nature of the U.S. position.
“Trying to leverage Netanyahu into moderating his military plans, while publicly embracing him, is challenging at the best of times,” he said.
These are not the best of times.
Biden’s claim that his commitment to Israel is “ironclad” has pitted the White House
against the progressive wing of the party. That commitment has sounded less and less rigid as the death toll in Gaza has risen. A Gallup poll in March suggested 75% of Democrats disapprove of the Israeli military action in Gaza. Biden has become critical of Israeli mistakes but without tangible consequences.
In fact, a CNN interview on Wednesday showed Biden acknowledging that US weapons shipments had been used to kill civilians in Gaza, and the president explained that he would stop some shipments moving forward.
Still, Allen thinks overall aid is unlikely to be meaningfully curtailed, despite this week’s decision to delay the delivery of some systems. “Biden's strategy is to hope for a deal that doesn’t force him to follow through on the threats he’s making to make it happen,” he said.
Biden had hoped the threats would be enough to force an Israeli rethink on Rafah, but that has not happened. Still, “Biden doesn't want to follow through on it: He’s getting hammered by the GOP, most US voters support Israel, and long-term US-Israeli alignment is a key part of US strategy,” Allen added.
But if the “counter-terrorism” operation in Rafah turns into a fully-fledged assault, the pressure to act could become irresistible. When three-quarters of your supporters don’t back your position on a pivotal issue, it tends to sap party unity. Biden can ill afford that kind of rift as November’s election creeps ever closer.
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip May 7, 2024.
Biden threatens to cut off some weapons to Israel if Rafah invaded
“We’re not going to supply the weapons and the artillery shells used” in a seemingly imminent Israeli invasion of Rafah, US President Joe Biden said in a CNN interview Wednesday, his toughest language on Israel yet.
Still, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t seem all that intimidated. Israel massed armor and troops on the outskirts of Rafah Thursday morning, after seizing the city’s crossing into Egypt on Wednesday. Over a million civilians are sheltering in the last Gazan city Israeli troops have not entered, but Netanyahu seems determined to take out the remaining Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants based there.
Meanwhile, CIA director William Burns has been shuttling between Jerusalem and Cairo for urgent cease-fire negotiations that the US hopes could save untold numbers of civilians. Earlier this week Hamas said it would accept a cease-fire agreement, but it was modified in ways Israel found unacceptable.
If Biden does follow through with his threat, we’re watching for further acrimony in the already inflamed relationship with Netanyahu, as well as how his rivals with better reputations at the White House, like Benny Gantz, react.