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Riot police disperse supporters of Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga in Nairobi.
As Kenyans protest, their politicians play chicken
For two weeks, Kenya's major cities have been hit by anti-government protests that have since turned violent. Security forces have tear-gassed demonstrators in the capital, Nairobi, while pro-government mobs ransacked former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s farm and businesses shut their doors for fear of looting.
With no end in sight, the next round of rallies is scheduled for Thursday.
Despite the institutional gains made over the last decade, the specter of previous episodes of political violence hangs heavy in Kenya. So, what’s going on?
The flames of unrest are being stoked by two bitter political rivals, opposition leader Raila Odinga and President William Ruto, who squared off in a tight presidential election in 2022. Odinga is contesting his narrow loss to Ruto, the ex-VP of Kenyatta (who endorsed Odinga in the race).
These three political heavyweights have a long history of working together in Kenya, where the separation between elite business and politics is slim to none.
Who’s who:
- Odinga hails from a political dynasty in Kenya. Despite losing the presidency five times, his political power stems from his ability to mobilize his passionate supporters — who have granted him nicknames like “Father,” “Act of God,” and most endearingly: “Tractor” — to stir up trouble on the streets.
- Ruto claims to be the first president not to come from a political family. He won in 2022 as a champion of the poor, pushing his rags-to-riches story and hustler image.
- Kenyatta ruled the country from 2013 to 2022. He’s left behind a mixed legacy of massive infrastructure development but also debt and corruption.
The relationship between the three is, to put it mildly, awkward. Ruto wants to take credit for what went right under Kenyatta and distance himself from the pitfalls. Similarly, Kenyatta and Odinga are old political rivals who buried the hatchet in 2018 with a joint statement declaring each other as “brothers.”
Officially, the protests are over inflation, which Odinga blames on Ruto and Ruto blames on Kenyatta. But Odinga also wants the president to step down because he claims — without evidence and despite the Supreme Court ruling otherwise — that he was cheated in 2022.
The problem is that Odinga was so sure he'd win that his coalition has struggled to regroup as the opposition, says Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey. Meanwhile, Ruto has co-opted many Odinga allies, hampering the ability of his rival to challenge him in parliament.
Odinga is using the cost-of-living narrative as a "lightning rod to ensure turnout" at his protests, Vasey adds. This is dangerous, he explains, because the opposition leader is a master at rallying his supporters to reach his political ends, no matter the risk of instability. (After he lost to Kenyatta in 2017, Odinga spurred violent political protests until he received public recognition of his power – in the form of a firm handshake – from the president.)
So while Odinga is officially trying to overturn Ruto's victory, Vasey believes that what he really wants is a "Handshake 2.0" or public recognition of his political power and influence.
Kenya is thus stuck in a political game of chicken in which Ruto, as president, has the upper hand (and not just because he was once a chicken vendor).
Odinga might be a political force on the streets, but Ruto is consolidating power in parliament and using the security forces to stop the protests from spreading beyond Nairobi and other major cities. The president believes he can wait Odinga out, gambling that if he doesn’t get what he wants soon, he’ll lose the political momentum.
Meanwhile, Vasey adds, Odinga has no choice but to “escalate in the hope [that] Ruto bites.”
Supporters of Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga throw stones at riot cops in Nairobi.
What We’re Watching: Kenyan protest politics, twice the Ma in China, SNP names new leader
Anti-government protests escalate in Kenya
On Monday, hundreds of protesters stormed a controversial farm owned by Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta. The rioters stole livestock, cut down trees, and then set the land on fire.
The motive likely has something to do with the ongoing protests against the government of President William Ruto captained by opposition leader Raila Odinga, who narrowly lost the 2022 election to Ruto, Kenyatta’s ex-VP. (The members of this political threesome have all worked with each other in the past in Kenya, where elite business and politics are about as tight as can be.)
This behavior is nothing new for Odinga. While the protests are outwardly about the rising cost of living, Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey says that the opposition is just “taking his politics to the streets,” using inflation and other grievances as a “lightning rod to ensure turnout”. And while he is officially trying to overturn Ruto’s victory, Vasey believes that what Odinga really wants is an unofficial executive role in government.
From here, we can expect a test of political willpower. Odinga is threatening more rallies, while Ruto says he’ll continue to deploy the security forces against the protesters. The president hopes that if his rival doesn’t get his political concessions soon, popular support for his mobilization will subside.
The Mas go to China
On Monday, Alibaba founder Jack Ma appeared in public in China for the first time since late 2020, when he got caught in the crosshairs of Xi Jinping's tech crackdown after criticizing Chinese regulators. The billionaire, once China's richest man, paid the price by giving up control of his fintech company Ant Group, which was also blocked from going public and fined a record $7.5 billion for antitrust violations.
Meanwhile, Ma Ying-jeou (no relation) became the first former president of Taiwan to set foot in China since 1949. Ma — who is also the only Taiwanese leader to have met the sitting Chinese leader — is visiting this week as a private citizen, but anything Taiwan-related is always politically sensitive. What's more, his trip comes just days before current Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen travels to Central America and the US amid bubbling cross-strait tensions.
The Ma trips are unrelated and probably coincidental. Still, Jack Ma's resurfacing might be a sign that Xi is no longer going after China's tech titans because he needs them to help the economy recover from zero-COVID. For his part, Ma Ying-jeou probably wants to pitch the opposition Kuomintang party's softer touch with China in contrast with Tsai's hardline diplomacy ahead of the presidential elections in 2024.
Yousaf will lead Scotland’s divided governing party
“We will be the generation to win independence for Scotland.” So pledges Humza Yousaf, who was named leader of the Scottish National Party on Monday following a two-week-long election. Parliament will officially vote him in on Tuesday, naming him Scotland’s sixth first minister, the head of its devolved government.
Press attention will focus on the novelty of his win. Yousaf is the first Muslim to lead a major party in Britain. But he’s also now the first person to lead the SNP following the shock resignation of the still-popular Nicola Sturgeon, whose departure was seen by many as an admission that a new Scottish independence referendum is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Yousaf’s razor-thin victory margin – he won just 52.1% of the vote against rival Kate Forbes – raises the thorny question of whether the party can remain strong without a credible call for a near-term independence vote to keep the party united despite its many differences on other issues.
“We are family,” says Yousaf of the party he now leads. How functional a family? We’re about to find out.
A man scuffles with the security officials before the result of Kenya's presidential election is announced in Nairobi.
What We’re Watching: Kenyan election jitters, Ukraine hits Wagner, Israel strikes near Russian bases
Kenya's new president is … ?
Deputy President William Ruto won Kenya's presidential election with 50.5% of the vote, the electoral commission declared Monday. Still, the process was very messy: authorities initially delayed the announcement amid clashes at the national counting center and accusations of vote rigging from Ruto's rival Raila Odinga. What’s more, four out of the commission's seven members refused to endorse the result over vague fraud claims. So, what happens now? Odinga, who represents the country’s dynastic politics, might contest the result in court, as he did five years ago, when the Supreme Court found so many logistical errors in the presidential election that it forced a rerun. Also, in 2007 more than 1,200 Kenyans were killed following a similarly disputed vote. (Both Ruto and outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta were then taken before the International Criminal Court for inciting violence, but charges against both were later dropped.) All eyes are now on the 77-year-old Odinga, in his fifth and presumably last run for the presidency. Will he risk more unrest and perhaps violence to win at all costs? Such uncertainty doesn't bode well for East Africa's most vibrant democracy. This election “started off as the most transparent and ends up in farce," tweeted political cartoonist Patrick Gathara.
Ukraine hits Wagner Group HQ
On August 8, a pro-Russian journalist working in the Ukrainian town of Popasna in Russian-held territory posted a series of images from his visit to the local headquarters of a Russian mercenary organization known as the Wagner Group. One of those images included a street sign that read Mironovskaya 12, the building’s address. Though the journalist later deleted that image, it appears the Ukrainian military had already seen it. On Sunday, Ukrainian officials claim its forces destroyed that building with the help of a HIMARS, a US-provided artillery rocket system capable of hitting a target precisely up to 43.5 miles away. Pro-Russian journalists have confirmed the hit, though reports of casualties remain sketchy. It’s another high-profile setback for the Wagner Group, believed to be closely linked to the Kremlin through one of Vladimir Putin’s most trusted advisers and to the GRU, the Russian military intelligence agency. Wagner has been active in Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and West and Central Africa, sometimes at the invitation of local governments. It has also been accused of war crimes and human rights violations.
Israel strikes too close for Russian comfort in Syria
Syria’s state broadcaster said Monday that three Syrian soldiers were killed in a series of Israeli air strikes on Damascus and south of Tartous province. For years, Israel has been striking targets in Syria in order to hamper Iranian efforts to deliver weapons to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. But this time was different: Israel hit targets that are very close to Russia’s sole naval base in the Mediterranean, where Russian warships are docked, and to a Russian air base in Latakia province. Moscow, which backs Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad rand largely controls Syrian airspace, has long allowed Israeli warplanes to target Iranian strategic assets there, so long as they don’t interfere with the Kremlin’s strategic interests in the region. Russia has also been willing to cooperate with Israel on these aerial missions in part because it is competing with Iran for dominance inside Syria. But Israeli-Russian ties have been strained in recent months as Israel has sought to offer some support to Ukraine. Indeed, Russia might punish Israel with more limited access to launch strikes against Syria — a move Israel would see as a big threat to its national security interests.Cricket fans, with their faces painted in the Indian and Pakistani national flag colors, ahead of a match between the two countries.
What We’re Watching: Partition 75th anniversary, Kenyan vote count, US-China in Southeast Asia
India & Pakistan turn 75
This year’s Aug. 15 Diamond Jubilee of Partition, when the British Raj split into India and Pakistan, is a complicated affair. India has gained more from independence in 1947 than Pakistan: earlier this summer, the Indian economy crossed the $3.3 trillion mark and officially overtook the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest — a nice touch to celebrate 75 years of independence from its colonial master. But India’s democratic credentials remain under threat by the rise of Hindu nationalism. However, Pakistan’s experiments after Partition — proxy wars, civil war, martial law, and Islamism — brought much suffering to its people. Today, the country is at the verge of another financial crisis and negotiating its 23rd IMF bailout, as well as in talks with its own version of the Taliban. Unfortunately, a growing nuclear arsenal is the only equalizer for the political and economic imbalance between the two countries. But there is still hope yet. After years of making zero progress, India and Pakistan are now involved in a backchannel dialogue, which may bring some normalcy between the old enemies. That, and the cricket, of course: Pakistan has won more games overall against its arch-rival, but never beaten India in a World Cup match.
Kenya's election nailbiter
Six days after Kenya's presidential election, the race between Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga is still undeclared. As of Monday afternoon in Nairobi, Ruto is ahead by a slim margin with about half of the vote officially counted, while unofficial media tallies that initially put his rival in the lead now also have Ruto winning. Both sides accuse each other of tampering with the process, which is painstakingly slow to avoid past instances of fraud: in 2007, more than 1,200 people were killed in violent clashes across the country after Odinga claimed the election had been stolen, and in 2017 a string of logistical mistakes forced the Supreme Court to annul the result and order a rerun. The result must be announced no later than Tuesday, a full week after the vote. Also, if neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the ballots cast in a minimum of 24 out of Kenya's 27 counties, the presidential election will for the first time go to a runoff before Sept. 8.
Southeast Asia tiptoes on US-China
Over the weekend, the US and Chinese militaries held separate military drills with Southeast Asian partners less than two weeks after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's mega-controversial trip to Taiwan, to which China responded by its biggest-ever show of force around the self-governing island. Chinese fighter jets participated in joint exercises with the Thai air force, while American and Indonesian troops wrapped up their two-week Garuda Shield live-fire drills, which Australia, Japan, and Singapore joined for the first time. The war games come amid heightened tensions in the region over Taiwan: many Southeast Asian countries are now “keeping their head down” to avoid picking sides between Beijing, who they do by far the most trade with, and Washington, which has given them more military aid for decades. No one wants to rock the boat in the region, where more than 10 years ago China and the Philippines — a former US colony that America is treaty-bound to defend — came to the brink of war over a disputed shoal in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, China kicked off Monday another round of military exercises near Taiwan after a group of US lawmakers visited the island the day before.Kenya’s presidential “choice” is 2 flavors of continuity
Kenyans go to the polls Tuesday to elect a successor to term-limited President Uhuru Kenyatta, who’s stepping down after 10 years in East Africa’s economic hub. But their choice is limited to one between Kenyatta’s longtime enemy-turned-ally, or the president’s own VP, who’s running against Kenyatta’s record (and therefore his own).
Huh? Please explain. The pro-administration candidate is opposition leader Raila Odinga, who's running for president for the fifth time. He lost the last two elections to Kenyatta. But in 2018, the two patched things up with a very public handshake, leaving Deputy President William Ruto as the odd man out.
Dynasty vs. “hustler.”Odinga, the scion of a famous political dynasty, is pitching himself as "Baba" (father) of the nation. He vows to give affordable healthcare to all Kenyans and a $50 monthly stipend to poor people.
For his part, Ruto — a former chicken vendor who claims he didn't own a pair of shoes until he was 15 — says he'll be the champion of the poor (although now he’s a wealthy landowner). Still, the 55-year-old promises to support young Kenyan “hustlers,” and being the first candidate not from a political family with a shot at winning the top job is nothing to sneeze at.
The two, however, have serious Kenyatta baggage. "Both men are struggling to disassociate themselves from the current administration," says Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey.
Indeed, the outgoing president has a mixed record: infrastructure development boomed on his watch, but so did graft and debt. Earlier this year, the Supreme Court nixed his plan to reform the constitution and appoint himself PM.
Ruto, Vasey explains, is trying to take credit for Kenyatta's achievements "while also explaining why he is not responsible for its failings, and [...] why he would do better this time." Meanwhile, Odinga can hardly claim to be the progressive alternative "while also leveraging his relationship with [a] conservative president whose track record he has long criticized."
What most Kenyan voters want is a leader who’ll do something different to fix tangible problems like rising food and fuel prices or youth unemployment. But they won't get much change from Odinga or Ruto, who are "basically just two versions of continuity," says political commentator and cartoonist Patrick Gathara.
"They are not new entities. And I don't think there's an expectation that what they are saying or what they are promising would be anything revolutionary," Gathara adds. "Kenyans [...] don't expect that if one takes power at the expense of the other, that would make a huge difference in how the country is run."
Why should people vote at all then? Kenya has by far the most competitive democracy in East Africa, where strongmen have carried the day more often than not. And while previous elections have been marred by violence, few are expecting widespread unrest this time around.
Still, Gathara believes that voting alone is not enough.
"There has been a huge emphasis on elections and on especially switching the people running the country — as if that would itself lead to a more serious attempt to actually fix [Kenya's] problems," he says. "But we've been on this merry-go-round since the 1950s and seen that it's really not about who's in power, but [rather] the system that they run. And this is a system that, in essence, is inherited from colonialism and never changed."
Until all Kenyans push to reform how politics work from the grassroots, Gathara laments, "voting can only take us so far."
Meanwhile, Odinga and Ruto are so tight in the surveys that the election could go to a runoff for the first time if neither gets 50% of the vote. In that case, the surprise kingmaker might be longshot presidential hopeful George Wajackoya, now polling a distant third at around 3% and with a few interesting ideas on how to make Kenya great.
If he were president, Wajackoya would legalize cannabis and boost trade with Asia by selling erectile dysfunction “medicine” made with … hyena testicles. No wonder he's the only "change" candidate.
This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Election banners of Kenya's presidential hopefuls.
Kenya’s two-and-a-half presidential horse race
On Aug. 9, Kenya’s 22 million registered voters will go the polls to pick a successor to the outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is barred from reelection by term limits. They will also select new national- and county-level lawmakers and county governors. For the presidential contest, Kenyans are presented with a batch of familiar faces to choose from. Yet even by the standards of the country’s ultra-transactional, unpredictable politics, this year’s electoral playing field is an unusual one. We spoke with Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey to learn more.
Who are the candidates?
It is a very narrow race this year with only four presidential candidates cleared to participate. In practice it is even tighter than that — what you might call a “two-and-a-half horse race.” On the one side is Deputy President William Ruto, whose gradual alienation from Kenyatta makes him both an incumbent and opposition figure. He heads both his party the United Democratic Alliance and the coalition Kenya Kwanza.
On the other side is the long-time opposition leader Raila Odinga (Orange Democratic Movement), who is taking his fifth and likely final stab at the presidency. But courtesy of a 2018 mending of fences Odinga has the backing of erstwhile rival Kenyatta, the “half horse” supporting Odinga’s campaign. The two have cobbled together the 26-member Azimio La Umoja (Declaration of Unity) coalition, which Kenyatta heads.
What are their platforms?
Beyond the branding and personalities, the platforms of the two leading candidates are essentially the same. Both are promising economic “rejuvenation” or “liberation” (depending on who you ask) for the bottom of the population pyramid. Both are talking big on support for farmers, small enterprises, youth entrepreneurs, and the informal sector.
Ruto clothes this in his “hustler versus dynasty” narrative, which frames his campaign as an effort to take on the established political families that have called the shots in Kenya since independence. Odinga, meanwhile, leans heavily on his contribution to bringing multiparty democracy to Kenya and his time in the opposition to portray himself as the more credible, elder statesman. He has chosen the respected anticorruption campaigner and constitutionalist Martha Karua as his running mate.
What are the main issues?
The state of the economy – specifically job creation and the cost of living – is by far the biggest. Though long a concern for most Kenyans, it has taken on more urgency in recent years. The pandemic and spike in commodity prices have increased economic hardship and exposed very ugly inequality. Until recently, Ruto’s campaign focused almost exclusively on the economy, and Odinga has made serious efforts to catch-up on that front.
In addition, corruption and healthcare are two other broad national concerns, while more local issues such as access to water and power may also sway some voters.
Why is Kenyatta backing Odinga and not Ruto?
It is important to note first of all that the Kenyatta-Ruto relationship was always a marriage of convenience and was never underpinned by deeper, interpersonal alignment. Once their collaboration was no longer politically expedient, its days were numbered. When Kenyatta and Odinga agreed in early 2018 to put an end to their bitter dispute of the 2017 election result –an act of reconciliation known locally as “The Handshake” – that signaled the political landscape was about to start shifting.
As to why Kenyatta decided his alliance with Ruto had outlived its usefulness, he appears to have come to the conclusion that Ruto was not the best person to preserve his presidential legacy and his family’s extensive economic interests. People close to the president say it had become apparent that Ruto was both uncomfortably independent – for example, he had developed a following in Kenyatta’s own stronghold – and an unreliable “business partner.” The increasing prominence of Odinga, who himself harbors grievances against Ruto, further soured Kenyatta on his deputy.
Will there be 2017-level violence?
The instability we saw in 2017 was mostly the product of the interaction of violent protests with an even more violent police response. Something similar, albeit on a smaller scale, is a risk. Actions by electoral officials that can inflame tensions will be an important watchpoint – unfortunately, they are perceived as partisan supporters of one candidate or the other.
That said, there are reasons for cautious optimism. First, despite some isolated incidents, the pre-election period has been quiet in comparison with previous cycles. Second, there have been important changes to the 2010 constitution that are increasingly institutionalized: the decentralization of power to counties (reducing the stakes of elections) and stronger judicial independence (which gives candidates a credible route to challenge a loss). Third, and perhaps most importantly, is the apathy many Kenyans feel toward an election lacking in fresh faces.
What are the main challenges waiting for the next president?
In the early days, both candidates will struggle to accommodate members of their large alliances in government positions and to restore sufficient political calm to devise a solution to the cost-of-living crisis. Longer term, walking the tightrope between stimulating growth and preserving Kenya’s fragile finances will be the biggest challenge for the new president. The voices of a young population demanding more jobs and improvements in standards of living will only grow louder.