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House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) reacts following the passage of spending legislation to avert a government shutdown, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, on Dec. 20, 2024.
Speaker showdown could delay election certification and more
Donald Trump is backing Johnson, whose path to the gavel is narrow. The would-be returning speaker needs the support of all Republicans but one to win, assuming Democrats unite to back Hakeem Jeffries. Trump’s backing of Johnson should help him, but it may not be sufficient. At least one Republican congressman, Chip Roy, of Texas, says Johnson lacks the votes as GOP members are divided; some back Johnson, but others were frustrated over his handling of the recent funding bill battle and are uncertain he’s the man for the job moving forward.
Should Johnson be unable to secure a win, there are Republican contenders waiting in the wings. Some Republicans, including Rand Paul, are consideringElon Musk – the speaker doesn’t have to come from the sitting Congress – while others back Vivek Ramaswamy. More likely candidates, currently serving in the House, include Jim Jordan and Tom Emmer, the majority whip. While other names might be getting more fanfare, Emmer seems to be the most likely second choice.
The looming showdown could drag on and make for Congressional chaos. The House can’t do anything until it elects a speaker – including certifying the election, which is scheduled for Jan. 6. In 2023, it took Kevin McCarthy15 ballots to win the speakership, and he was out less than a year later. A divided Republican side and a close seat count in the House could again make for a rough start to the new Congress and a portent of future impasses.A volunteer works at former U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign headquarters in Urbandale, Iowa U.S., January 13, 2024.
Trump wins by a landslide in Iowa
It only took the Associated Press 32 minutes to call the race for the former president. Blizzard conditions didn’t seem to hurt Donald Trump any more than his refusal to debate his opponents or a laundry list of legal troubles. Caucus workers in many precincts had packed up and gone home within an hour of opening as Trump easily cleared 51% of the vote.
The race to No. 2: Much closer was the contest between former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though the latter managed to pull ahead with 21% of the vote to Haley’s 19%. Still, neither secured enough of an advantage to emerge as the clear alternative to Trump.
Vivek Ramaswamy finished a distant fourth, leading the long-shot candidate to hang up his campaign boots and endorse Trump.
Next up: New Hampshire’s primary is next Tuesday, Jan. 23. Haley is polling much more competitively in the Granite State … albeit with a 10 percentage point gap behind Trump.
This paints a rather grim picture of Haley’s best path to the White House, which seems to depend on Trump being rendered ineligible by a court ruling in one of his many ongoing cases. If polling is to be believed, even a conviction is unlikely to bother Republican voters much – as the majority are convinced Trump has done nothing wrong.
And the gate is even narrower for DeSantis, who staked his candidacy’s future on overperforming in Iowa. His polling numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina have him closer to Ramaswamy than Haley — and miles behind Donald Trump.