Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Refugee women stand in the Gorom refugee settlement during Foreign Minister Baerbock's visit.
UN accuses Sudan militia of mass rape
The United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan has just issued a new report accusing the Rapid Support Forces militia of using sexual violence to control civilians in their territory. The report follows one of the deadliest single incidents of the 18-month-old civil war: On Friday, RSF troops killed at least 124 people, injured nearly 200, and detained scores in a village southeast of Khartoum.
Activists told CNN that the RSF deliberately targets communication links, especially Starlink devices, so the true casualty and arrest figures are likely “significantly higher.” The number of detentions is extremely worrying, as the UN’s report found that the RSF routinely forces detained and abducted girls and women into sexual slavery, with victims ranging in age from 8 to 75.
The report also documents the use of gang rape to punish civilians for perceived support for the Sudanese Armed Forces, the old regime, or human rights activism. Victims suffer not only from the violence and trauma but from broader social isolation as many are shunned by their family and peers — or even killed.
What led to the massacre? Last month, the SAF launched an offensive against RSF-held areas in the capital, Khartoum, and pushed into surrounding states including El-Gezira, where Friday’s massacre occurred. As the RSF has pulled back toward its core base in Darfur to the west, its fighters have retaliated against civilians. Omran Abdullah, a senior RSF spokesperson, told Al-Jazeera the victims were fighting for the SAF, however.
The UN is calling for an immediate cease-fire, urgent distribution of food and medicine, a peacekeeping force to protect civilians, and an international judicial process to bring some small measure of justice to victims. As intense and deeply disturbing as the violence has proven, we are not holding our breath for a strong response from the international community.
Plumes of smoke rise during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum, Sudan, September 26, 2024.
Sudanese Army launches offensive to retake capital
Residents of Khartoum awoke Thursday to dawn airstrikes and artillery shelling as the country’s armed forces launched an offensive against the rebel Rapid Support Forces militia. The Sudanese Armed Forces have reportedly captured two bridges connecting Khartoum, on the east bank of the Nile, to Omdurman on the west, and are pushing toward the presidential palace amid heavy fighting.
What’s the outlook? Sudan’s military counts on air superiority and artillery, but the RSF’s infantry has historically outmatched them. The RSF also enjoys considerable backing from the United Arab Emirates — a significant military power — as well as Libyan warlord Khalifa Belqasim Omar Haftar and the Russian mercenaries formerly known as the Wagner Group.
Sudan’s armed forces can count on less outside backing: Russia’s involvement has led to a limited deployment of Ukrainian special forces, and Iran has provided some drones (which, ironically, Tehran also provides Russia to fight against Ukraine). Even if they do manage to push the RSF out of Khartoum, Sudan’s military faces steep odds for regaining the whole country.
Is there a chance for peace? Only through negotiation, according to Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the head of Sudan’s military. He called for the end to hostilities and a holistic peace process when he spoke at the United Nations General Assembly in New York Thursday. However, his speech was hardly an olive branch: He accused the RSF of genocide for their slaughter of Black ethnic groups in Darfur province and even alleged that women and children had been sold as chattel in RSF-controlled markets.
We’re watching for who wins the fight in Khartoum, and whether the result of the battle might bring relief closer for the long-suffering Sudanese population.
A boy sits atop a hill overlooking a refugee camp near the Chad-Sudan border, November 9, 2023. Hundreds of Masalit families from Sudan's West Darfur state were relocated here months after fleeing to the Chadian border town of Adre, following an ethnically targeted massacre in the city of El Geneina.
Sudan’s Masalit people are being butchered. Is the world watching?
On Saturday, the Sudanese Army fended off an attack by the Rapid Support Forces on the city of el-Fasher in the western region of Darfur. Hundreds of thousands of civilians are sheltering in the city, the final stronghold of government forces in the region, having escaped unspeakable horrors perpetrated by the RSF and allied Arab militias.
The clashes around el-Fasher lasted several hours and included strikes on heavily populated areas. The Army may have won this weekend, but the RSF maintains control of the hinterlands and will likely attempt to take the city again. The more remarkable part, however, is that the Army acted to protect civilians.
Last week, Human Rights Watch published a landmark report on earlier violence in Darfur, based on over 220 interviews with civilians. It showed that as RSF and allied fighters systematically raped, tortured, and murdered Masalit people, the Army forces simply stood by.
The Masalit and other Black ethnic groups in southern and western Sudan were the traditional targets of Arab slavers from the north. That ethno-religious conflict has formed part of the basis of multiple civil wars since Sudan’s independence, and the Masalit, in particular, were already viciously persecuted by Janjaweed militias starting in 2003.
The violence resurged after a Masalit governor, Mohamed Abdalla al-Doma, took power in West Darfur in 2020. Local Arabs in the capital el-Geneina demanded protection from the RSF – which evolved directly from the Janjaweed militias – and the fighting has been worse there than anywhere in Sudan apart from Khartoum.
The HRW report estimates up to 15,000 people died in the province between April and November 2023, with survivors recounting staggering sexual and physical violence. One woman, Karima, age 26, says men went door to door in her neighborhood, executing male civilians. When they reached her house, they beat her and raped her three times at gunpoint.
She and over half a million survivors have now fled to eastern Chad, where they live in desperate conditions in refugee camps. It’s a perverse homecoming for some who grew up in similar camps two decades ago.
Once again, the international community is struggling to find time for Sudan. The Biden administration marked the one year anniversary of the present war last month by issuing an executive order authorizing sanctions on Sudanese leaders — pretty weak tea. The UN authorized a factfinding mission in October 2023 that has been unable to carry out its mandate, while the World Food Programme’s appeal for aid for Sudan was only 5% fulfilled in February.
Failing to protect civilians like Karima isn’t only a tragedy; it undermines confidence in the international order, particularly in Africa, the continent that will drive the world’s population and economic growth in the coming century. It’s also a damning reflection of the international community’s commitment to human rights and justice.
FILE PHOTO: Sudanese refugees who fled the violence in Sudan's Darfur region and newly arrived ride their donkeys looking for space to temporarily settle, near the border between Sudan and Chad in Goungour, Chad May 8, 2023.
Fears of mass killings rise in Darfur
Genocide once again threatens to devastate Darfur as the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces encircle El Fasher, the last city in North Darfur not under the paramilitary group’s control.
The United Nations warned this weekend of imminent attacks on El Fasher’s 800,000 residents and hundreds of thousands of refugees displaced by Sudan's year-long civil war, a situation that human rights investigators describe as having the potential for“Hiroshima- and Nagasaki-level casualties.”
A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterressaid, “The world must act swiftly to prevent a potential genocide in the region.”
Eight and a half million Sudanese have been displaced since conflict broke out in April 2023, with 25 million at risk of famine nationwide. The RSF has been accused of massacres and mass rapes, most notably in the West Darfur capital of El Geneina, where 10,000-14,000 people were killed inethnically targeted attacks last year against Black African Masalit and other non-Arab civilians.
Now, echoes of Darfur’s2003 famine, which stemmed from the same ethnic conflicts, have resurfaced – but with competing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, aid workers fear the world once again will not pay attention until it is too late.FILE PHOTO: A member of Sudanese armed forces looks on as he holds his weapon in the street in Omdurman, Sudan, March 9, 2024.
Famine looms in Sudan
As much of the world focuses on conflicts raging in Ukraine and Gaza, the ongoing war in Sudan has generated what a senior UN official said last week was “one the worst humanitarian disasters in recent memory.”
The numbers speak for themselves. Nearly a year of war between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has killed tens of thousands, forced eight million from their homes, and left more than 18 million people facing acute food insecurity. Some 730,000 Sudanese children are now suffering from severe malnutrition. Famine looms as a real possibility in the coming weeks.
Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo in Juba, South Sudan on October 21, 2019.
RSF calls for a cease-fire in Sudan: peace effort or publicity stunt?
The Rapid Support Forces, the dominant paramilitary group fighting in Sudan, has announced it is open to an immediate, unconditional cease-fire. Sudan’s civil war has displaced nearly 6 million people and killed more than 10,000 since it began in April 2023.
The sides: On one side we've got Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country's army chief and de facto leader since leading the 2021 coup. On the other is his former ally and junta deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, aka Hemedti, head of the RSF, a militia that grew out of the Janjaweed death squads that committed genocide in Darfur.
The declaration could be a turning point, but there is also reason to fear it is just a continuation of Hemedti’s publicity tour. When war broke out, he went into hiding for months, spurring speculations he was wounded or dead until he reappeared in a photo-op with Uganda’s president last week. Hemedti then went on to meet leaders of Ethiopia, Ghana, and Djibouti, showcasing his regional backing while trying to position himself as the next leader of Sudan.
In recent months, the RSF has made key territorial gains – including Darfur and the country’s breadbasket, Gezira. Now in control of most of the East and West of the country, it's no wonder that Hemedti thinks that the time is right to come to the negotiating table. The RSF just signed a peace agreement with the pro-civilian group the Taqadum Civilian Coalition and has invited the Sudanese Army to join.
It is unclear, however, whether the Sudanese Army will accept the invitation. Artillery fire between the RSF and the Sudanese Army has been intensifying in recent days, and past cease-fire agreements and negotiations have failed to stop the fighting or protect civilians. If the latest effort is similarly unsuccessful, famine is looming and will likely add to the mounting civilian casualties.
Saudi navy officials help civilians onboard their ship to be evacuated from Sudan.
No truce in Sudan
Fierce fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces resumed on Sunday in Sudan, with the two warring parties accusing each other of violating a fragile ceasefire. The truce was again extended for another 72 hours, but don't keep your hopes up.
As the security situation worsens, foreign countries keep scrambling to get their citizens out. The US, which last week was reluctant to carry out a mass evacuation of Americans, over the weekend changed its mind and dispatched a convoy to Saudi Arabia via Port Sudan. Other foreign nationals were less lucky: A Turkish aircraft came under fire, highlighting how dangerous airlifts have become.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis has gone from bad to worse. Some two-thirds of hospitals in battleground areas of Khartoum are out of service, with medical supplies, health workers, water, and electricity all in short supply. More than 500 civilians have been killed in three weeks of clashes and over 20,000 Sudanese have fled to neighboring Chad.
Former PM Abdalla Hamdok warned that the ongoing conflict could become worse than Libya or Syria. Based on the available firepower and the sheer number of outside players that might get involved, it's certainly no exaggeration.Fleeing Sudanese seek refuge in Chad.
Sudan at risk of biological hazard
As if things weren’t bad enough in Sudan, there’s now growing fear of a biological catastrophe after one of two warring military factions took control of Khartoum’s National Public Laboratory.
The World Health Organization warned Wednesday of a “high risk of biological hazard” at the lab, which stores pathogens like measles and cholera and other hazardous materials.
After militants forced lab technicians to leave, WHO said the situation was “extremely dangerous,” though it wouldn’t say which group – the Sudanese army or the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces – had seized the compound.
The two sides agreed this week to a 72-hour ceasefire that will expire on Thursday night. While fighting has ceased throughout much of the capital, allowing people to leave their homes and access food aid, clashes persist in some pockets of the city.
But things were already dire at NPL and throughout Khartoum’s health system since clashes erupted in the capital almost two weeks ago. At the lab, lifesaving treatments – including blood bags for transfusions – couldn’t be stored properly due to electricity outages. Meanwhile, officials say that 61% of the city’s health facilities aren’t operational due to shelling.
This development comes amid a greater sense of lawlessness in Khartoum after a number of former officials associated with longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir escaped from prison.
The WHO says it is still conducting a thorough risk assessment, but the situation is deteriorating quickly as a tenuous truce frays.