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Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers
“There had been landings but never a tragedy like this,” the mayor of Cutro, a southern Italian town, said after a boat carrying an estimated 200 migrants splintered into pieces on Sunday after hitting rocky terrain.
At least 63 people, including children and at least one newborn, were found dead, while 80 migrants, all adults, survived. Dozens remain missing. Most of the migrants came from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran, having crossed the tumultuous sea from Turkey.
This week’s tragedy comes amid a steep increase since 2022 in the number of asylum-seekers from North Africa and South Asia attempting to cross the Mediterranean in hopes of reaching Europe. Indeed, the Italian coast has emerged as the first point of entry for many would-be migrants fleeing economic hardship, oppression, and political implosion.
What’s causing the uptick, and how are Italy and the European Union responding?
A post-COVID surge. The pandemic years saw a lull in migrants from North Africa crossing the Mediterranean, largely due to border closures. But that all changed in 2022 when a significant number of migrants from Afghanistan, Tunisia, Libya, Eritrea, Iraq, Egypt, and elsewhere resumed attempts to make the perilous journey across the Mediterranean to Europe. Though the influx has not reached crisis levels seen in 2015-2016, when 1.3 million people sought refuge in Europe, roughly 100,000 people crossed the Mediterranean into Italy alone last year. Migration levels have also steadily risen due to an influx of refugees from the eastern flank of Ukraine, as well as the Western Balkan route, which accounted for 45% of all illegal entry attempts into the EU last year.
There has been a “build-up of migration pressure because of people who needed to leave during the pandemic but did not have the access,” says Eric Reidy, a reporter for The New Humanitarian focused on migration. This dynamic is also interacting with specific factors, Reidy notes, including the “Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan and the deteriorating situation for Syrian refugees in Turkey.”
Shipwrecked in Italy. Many refugees leaving Turkey or northeast Libya, two of the main points of embarkation, are opting to take a longer and more perilous journey to Italy to avoid disembarking in Greece, where authorities have been known to push back boats. Meanwhile, prison-like conditions at Greek refugee camps have been a boon for people smugglers promising to help would-be migrants reach the Italian coast.
But the Italian government isn’t keen to absorb the influx. Since coming to power last fall, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of the far-right Brothers of Italy Party has sought to position herself as an anti-immigrant firebrand. While Meloni, a nationalist, has surprisingly avoided many of the anticipated confrontations with the European Union, her government has introduced sweeping anti-immigrant legislation and antagonized fellow member states into sharing the load.
“Italy wants more redistribution where they [migrants] can submit their asylum request elsewhere – but this is a non-starter in Europe,” says Luca Barana, a research fellow at Italy's Institute for International Affairs in Rome, pointing to bloc-wide rules requiring member states to process refugees who arrive first in their territorial waters. Rome, however, says the status quo is unsustainable.
Meloni takes on NGOs. In a move broadly condemned by rights groups, the Meloni government has focused on making it harder for humanitarian vessels to rescue migrants at sea by assigning boats to disembarkation ports in northern Italy. Essentially, this means that after conducting a rescue operation, vessels must return to their designated port – even ignoring subsequent distress calls – limiting their time on the sea. Those who ignore the order could have their vessels confiscated by Italian authorities.
Indeed, the anti-NGO push was largely championed by deputy PM and longtime anti-immigrant advocate Matteo Salvini, who has long argued that the presence of charity rescue vessels in the Mediterranean incentivizes migrants to risk the journey.
Unsurprisingly, this policy is causing deep rifts within the EU. Back in November, France and Italy were at loggerheads after Rome refused to accept the Ocean Viking, a ship carrying 230 migrants, claiming – in what France said was an act of bad faith – that Paris had agreed to take in the vessel (it had not). After three weeks of bobbing around on the waters, France ultimately accepted the NGO vessel but suspended an earlier goodwill gesture to take in 3,500 refugees from Italy.
What’s Europe doing about it? In recent years, both Italy and the EU have been trying to direct resources to countries of origin to try and stop the boats. Just last month, Italy delivered another ship to the Libyan coast guard, while Meloni also recently visited Libya to strengthen cooperation arrangements.
However, refugee advocates have long said that Europe’s ability to absorb refugees is simply a matter of political will. Many now point to the absorption of Ukrainian refugees over the past year as a case in point. “Around 4.8 million Ukrainians registered for protection in the EU in the past year,” Reidy says, while comparatively, the number of people crossing the Mediterranean to Europe is in the 120,000-150,000 range. For Reidy, this reinforces the “division of refugees into deserving and undeserving refugees” that pervades Europe.
As part of this effort to augment North African coast guards, intercepted migrants are often put in indefinite detention by Libyan authorities. They are “detained in horrendous conditions where forced labor, torture, extortion, and sexual abuse” are rife, Reidy says. Their only way out is to pay a hefty fine or, for women, to sexually exploit themselves. Otherwise, they risk languishing there indefinitely.
What now? It’s easy to blame the bureaucracy in Brussels for policy stagnation, but that’s not what’s really going on here. Rather, the problem is that 27 member states with competing domestic priorities simply can’t agree on a possible solution. Italy, playing for a domestic audience that backs its tough-on-migration play, remains committed to employing cynical tactics to get the EU to play ball. But as crises mount around the world, would-be-migrants still calculate that risking their lives at sea is safer than staying put.What We’re Watching: Nigerian election results, Italian migrant tragedy, COVID lab leak report
Nigeria starts presidential vote count
Early results from Nigeria's presidential election are still trickling in Monday, as delays at some polling stations forced people to vote throughout the night on Saturday and the following day. Final numbers could take days, especially if the race is very tight. So far, the big news is that Peter Obi, a third-party insurgent posing the most serious threat to the Nigerian political establishment since the restoration of democracy in 1999, captured Lagos, the country's biggest city and state. Obi is facing off against ruling party candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu and opposition hopeful Atiku Abubakar. To avoid a runoff, a candidate must win the popular vote and 25% of ballots in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states. Whoever comes out on top, the final result "will most likely leave a large chunk of Nigerians upset," tweeted Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group's Africa practice, who's covering the election on the ground. Anku highlighted the low voter turnout — although it's unclear whether fewer people actually showed up or if biometric ID verification prevented unregistered people from voting.
Migrant boat sinks off Italian coast
At least 62 people, including children, died after a rickety wooden boat carrying approximately 150 migrants sank off the coast of southern Italy on Sunday. Search and rescue teams found 80 survivors, all of them adults. The number of migrants crossing violent seas from northern Africa to reach Europe has accelerated recently, with 105,000 intercepted by Italy last year, up 38,000 from 2021. Far-right Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, who has vowed to crack down hard on asylum-seekers trying to arrive by sea, blamed human traffickers and demanded more help from EU leaders to address the crisis, while the opposition 5-Star Party derided her government’s migration policy. Meloni has placed restrictions on charity boats and refused to accept rescue ships, demanding other countries take in more refugees. Meloni's hardline stance on migration remains at odds with human rights groups and Brussels as well as most individual EU member states, but she is unlikely to back down — after all, she was elected by Italians to be tougher on this issue, which provokes strong emotions on both sides.
Where did COVID come from?
Did COVID-19 come from a lab? Some time ago, that was considered unlikely, but now a classified and updated US Energy Department report says the virus most likely came from a laboratory leak. This is a significant development because of the considerable scientific expertise at the DOE’s disposal, though it reportedly has “low confidence” in the finding. The FBI reached a similar conclusion a while back, yet opinions in the US intelligence community are as polarized as they can be, as other agencies maintain that the pandemic began with a transmission from animals to humans. The only thing most seem to agree on is that the virus was not part of a Chinese biological weapons program. The finding, which the DOE says is based on new evidence (yet no details are available), underscores the continuing controversy over the origins of COVID, the emergence of which, as well as China’s secrecy over it, has been a significant source of tension between Beijing and the rest of the word. Still, what has changed from a few months ago is that the lab leak theory has gone from mere conspiracy theory to something that just might be a plausible explanation to something we will probably never have a definitive answer to: where COVID really came from.Hard Numbers … after a year of war in Ukraine
300,000: Human losses on both sides of the conflict are mounting (and disputed), but there have been a whopping 300,000 military and civilian deaths on both sides, according to high-end estimates.
2.1 & 0.3: Russia’s economy contracted by just 2.1% last year, far less than predicted, due to continued sales of its discounted crude oil and adaptability. The IMF predicts a 0.3% growth rate for Russia this year thanks to high export prices.
51,000 vs. 40,600: Having seized roughly 51,000 square miles of Ukrainian land by late March last year, Russia has since lost roughly one-fifth of that. The Kremlin now controls about 40,600 square miles (17% of Ukraine), entirely in the south and east.
18 & 60: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has decimated the country economically, with roughly 60% of Ukrainians now living below the poverty line, compared to 18% before the war.
35 & 139 billion: Ukraine’s GDP has diminished by 35%, and Russian targeted attacks are slamming the country’s infrastructure, having caused US$139 billion worth of damage (so far). Well over a third of the country is now dependent on humanitarian aid to live.
Up to 1 million: A reported 8,087,952 Ukrainian refugees are now spread across Europe, with close to 5 million seeking temporary asylum. Millions more are displaced within Ukraine. An estimated 500,000 to 1 million Russians have fled their homeland, driven by economic unrest, politics, and military mobilization.
Would you accept Russian draft dodgers?
In the week since Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilization, roughly 200,000 draft-eligible Russian men have fled the country, preferring to live in Russia’s neighboring countries as refugees rather than as invading soldiers.
But while most of Russia’s post-Soviet neighbors have welcomed them, the European Union – which has already all but stopped issuing visas to Russians anyway – is split over how to handle a fresh wave of asylum-seekers coming from a country that the bloc is now all-but-directly at war with.
The EU’s president, Charles Michel, says members should admit them as conscientious objectors. Germany and France have signaled a willingness to do so. But the Baltic states, those nearest the Russian border, have a different view: nothing doing.
What’s the right policy? Here are some arguments both for and against rejecting Russian asylum-seekers.
Keep 'em out because …
They are a security risk. EU countries worried about fifth columnists or saboteurs need hundreds of thousands of young Russian men right now like they need a hole in the head. The EU isn’t directly at war with Russia, but it’s fair to assume the bloc’s energy infrastructure and military supply depots are tempting targets for Russian spooks these days. The recent, so-far-unattributed, explosions along the Nord Stream pipelines will only heighten these fears. What’s more, the Baltics have social stability to worry about – they are small countries with sizable, and not-always-happy ethnic Russian minorities to begin with. Don’t light matches near a tinderbox.
Russians should oppose the war at home, not ride it out here. The Estonian Prime Minister says, “Every citizen is responsible for the actions of their state, and citizens of Russia are no exception.” Latvia’s Foreign Minister was less diplomatic, tweeting that if Russians were “fine with killing Ukrainians” earlier in the year, they don’t get to flee their government’s war now.
What little Russian polling there is seems to show strong support for Putin and his “special military operation.” While it’s great so many Russian men now oppose the war — or at least don’t want to die in it themselves — they should be protesting on the streets of Moscow, not looking for work on the streets of Riga.
Why help Putin? Although there are reports of Russian border guards stopping draft dodgers, the frontier is, broadly speaking, open, and there’s probably a reason for that: it rids Putin of the most troublesome objectors as well as the people whose inclusion in the ranks would only sap already-low morale anyway. So if Putin too prefers his draft dodgers on the streets of Riga than on the streets of Moscow, then don’t help him out. As Johns Hopkins Russia scholar Sergey Radchenko has suggested: whatever Putin does with the border, do the opposite.
These aren’t Syrians or Afghans. In recent years, the EU as a bloc has accepted more than a million asylum-seekers from countries ripped apart by civil war. But in this case, Russia is the one doing the ripping. Russians leaving now aren’t fleeing death or destruction. They are — as Latvia’s foreign minister recently put it — simply refusing to “fulfill one’s civic duty in Russia.” Sorry, but that’s not grounds for asylum.
So much for the slam-the-door arguments. What about those for letting Russians in?
No, Russians aren’t responsible for Putin’s decisions. Russia is — we can probably all agree — an unfree, authoritarian country where the people, by definition, have little say over what their government does. So it’s not fair to hold Russians accountable for the actions of their government in the same way as we might for a democracy. Those who want to leave are leaving precisely because they are conscientious objectors to an unjustifiable war launched by a person who is not accountable to them. There is a moral imperative to welcome them.
Sapping Putin’s cannon fodder and brain tank is good. Putin is desperate to rustle up warm bodies to bolster a flagging war effort. Absorbing as many of those bodies as possible is simply good policy, as it will force him to dig deeper into society for the forces he needs. That, in turn, increases the prospect of a broader backlash. What’s more, anything to accelerate Putin’s brain drain is good policy as well — there are a lot of smart young people among the draft dodgers!
Well, over to you, dear reader: if you were in charge of EU asylum policy, what would you do?
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Hard Numbers: US to take in 100K refugees, cost of living surges in Russia, North Korea tests ICBM, polio scare hits Malawi, militants surrender in Nigeria
100,000: The Biden administration announced Thursday that the US will welcome up to 100,000 Ukrainian refugees and others fleeing Russian aggression. This will happen over the “long term” and therefore will not require raising the annual refugee cap.
14: Amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, the cost of living has risen 14% in Russia over the past week. Diapers and staples such as tea, coffee, and onions have risen at the quickest rate. Inflation is expected to continue rising as the ruble takes a massive hit from Western sanctions.
5: North Korea has tested a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in five years. Japan said that the ICBM landed within its exclusive economic zone and reached an extremely high altitude level. Kim Jong Un could be trying to get attention as G7 leaders, distracted by Ukraine, meet in Europe.
23 million: After an outbreak of wild polio was found in Malawi for the first time in 30 years, around 23 million children under age five in southern Africa will be offered vaccinations against the disease. This comes two years after Africa was declared free of wild polio, which ravaged the continent for decades.
7,000: Nigerian media say that 7,000 Islamic State and Boko Haram fighters have surrendered in the country’s northeast over the past week amid an ongoing effort by authorities to quash the militant groups. More than 350,000 Nigerians have been killed in attacks by terror groups over the past decade.Hard Numbers: Displaced Ukrainians, pro-Russia parties banned, Japan invests in India, Mexico City’s new airport
10 million: Ten million Ukrainians — almost a quarter of the country's population — have already fled their homes amid the Russian invasion, the UN refugee agency said on Sunday. Most of the externally displaced have gone to neighboring Poland.
11: Ukraine has suspended 11 pro-Russia political parties while martial law remains in place. One of them is the Opposition Platform For Life, which holds about a tenth of seats in parliament and is led by Viktor Medvedchuk, Moscow's top ally in the country.
42 billion: Japan will invest $42 billion in India over the next five years, PM Fumio Kishida announced on Saturday during his visit to Delhi. Separately, Kishida is hoping to convince Indian PM Narendra Modi to formally oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine, which Modi has so far refused.
2.5: On Monday, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will inaugurate the capital’s new airport, one of his flagship infrastructure projects. But the terminal is located so far from downtown Mexico City that critics say the trip could take up to 2.5 hours, longer than most domestic flights.Hard Numbers: Brits host Ukrainians, Turkmen succession, deadly COVID in HK, Puerto Rico in the black
100,000: Over 100,000 Brits have signed up for a new government program to host Ukrainian refugees in their homes. The UK has been criticized for granting so few visas to Ukrainians thus far, but those without UK family ties will now be eligible.
73: The son of outgoing Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was “elected” to succeed his dad on Saturday. But Serdar Berdymukhamedov only got 73% of the vote, 24 percentage points less than what his eccentric father got five years ago in the gas-rich Central Asian nation.
25: Hong Kong’s daily COVID death rate has this month surpassed 25 per 100,000 people, the highest in the world. The big problem there is that more than half of elderly Hong Kongers don’t want to get vaccinated, in part because they don’t trust jabs from mainland China.
70 billion: The US territory of Puerto Rico formally exited bankruptcy on Tuesday, almost seven years after defaulting on over $70 billion in debt. But Puerto Ricans aren’t out of the woods yet — they need to get their books checked before being able to borrow money again.