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US Capitol at nighttime
Will there be a government shutdown?
Amid the chaos of tariffs, trade wars, stock market slumps, and global conflicts, is the US government headed for a shutdown on Friday? The Senate is struggling to reach an agreement on the continuing resolution passed by the House, which would keep federal funding basically the same as it is now until Sept. 30.
The resolution needs 60 votes to be brought to the floor for a final vote, where it can be passed by a simple majority. This means Republicans need to convince at least eight Democrats to get on board. If the Dems play ball, the government stays open, but Donald Trump and his Department of Government Efficiency get a win – one that will allow them to keep pursuing their agenda and gutting so much of the government Congress is looking to fund.
Democrats would prefer a shorter continuing resolution for one month instead of the six months in the Republican plan since the stopgap funding measure doesn’t come with the robust Congressional oversight on spending that a regular budget bill would. The showdown also represents a broader struggle, not just between Republicans and Democrats, but also between Congress and a White House that is asserting – and extending – its power, testing the limits of lawmakers and the law.
But the Dems don’t appear to be united on shutting down the government and are likely to give the GOP enough votes to advance their bill to the next stage -- where it can become law with just Republican votes. They will then vote no, going on record in opposition but with the full understanding that the GOP will pass it and the government will stay open. They also may try to save face first by voting on their own, shorter-period, temporary funding bill, though it will never pass.
US House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks to reporters at the Capitol in Washington, U.S., in February 2025.
Republicans bid to avoid government shutdown
With a government shutdown deadline looming on Friday, US House Speaker Mike Johnson on Saturday introduced a continuing resolution that, if passed, would effectively fund the government through September. US President Donald Trump has backed the bill. The budget battle comes as fears rise over the impact of Trump's tariff policies, and the flip-flopping nature of their implementation. On Sunday, Trump refused to rule out that his aggressive economic policies could cause a recession.
Wins and losses: In passing a continuing resolution rather than a new budget, Republicans are trying to keep government spending around the levels set by former US President Joe Biden last year. The bill contains additional funding for immigration enforcement and reduces nondefense spending by $13 billion, but it doesn’t touch two significant components of the US welfare state: Social Security and Medicaid. It is vague about its spending lines, potentially handing some leeway to White House adviser Elon Musk to continue cutting the size of government. Democrats are crying foul.
Blame game: It’s a tale almost as old as Congress that the two principal parties in the United States try to blame one another for shutting down the government whenever a contentious budget deadline comes around. Yet, the listless House Democrats — whose power has been so blunted — don’t even seem to be bothering with this game, openly suggesting that they’d be willing to block the resolution and shut down the government if they have the votes. How the tables have turned.
Analysis: Johnson aims to avoid that and plans to hold the vote on the continuing resolution by Tuesday, but it is not a done deal. Even if House Republicans maintain their united front and pass the bill, it will need the support of at least seven Democratic senators to get to the president’s desk. This means Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has some leverage. We will be watching to see whether he uses it or undercuts his Democratic allies in the lower chamber, as he did in 2019 when he accepted the Senate Republicans’ border bill despite then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s objections.Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland on February 20, 2025
Will Republicans really slash Medicaid?
This week, House Republicans are expected to vote on a budget measure that would fund an extension of President Donald Trump’s first-term tax cuts by taking an axe to one of America’s key entitlement programs: Medicaid.
What’s Medicaid? A joint federal and state program that funds medical care for low-income people. About a quarter of Americans are enrolled directly, and two-thirds say they or their family members have benefitted from the program.
What would the measure do? Slash $2 trillion from the federal budget over the next decade, including about $800 billion from Medicaid. The Medicaid cuts would come by placing per-capita limits on federal funding, narrowing states’ tax options for funding Medicaid, and imposing work requirements on recipients.
The debate: The GOP says these measures will root out waste and abuse, shift more of the burden onto states, which know their own needs better, and incentivize recipients to get off the dole.
Critics say the sweeping reductions would harm the poor by slashing their access to health care while funding tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
What’s Trump saying? He said he would “love and cherish” Medicaid, along with its related old-age benefit programs, Medicare and Social Security, which the GOP has said it wouldn’t touch. But Trump has also endorsed the budget resolution.
How the people see it: Strong majorities of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents view Medicaid favorably, according to recent polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The GOP’s dilemma: The party is committed to cuts in taxes and spending, but several GOP districts with large populations of Medicaid recipients are up in arms. And given the GOP’s razor-thin House majority, and unified Democratic opposition, the Republicans can’t afford to lose more than a single vote in the House.
Will Elon Musk be good for America?
SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has such an influential role in Donald Trump’s new administration that he’s been called the “shadow president.” Will his outsize presence in the Trump White House help usher in a new era of US tech policy or lead to geopolitical chaos? On GZERO World, Atlantic CEO Nicholas Thompson joins Ian Bremmer to discuss technology and the incoming Trump administration. Musk’s role in everything from space travel to AI development to social media will have a huge impact on America’s technology and economic future. The ‘Elon-ification’ of Twitter/X has also given Musk a platform to influence politics abroad, which could complicate America’s relationship with geopolitical allies who want him to stop interfering but don’t want to jeopardize their relationship with the new US President. Though Thompson believes Trump’s technology policy will ultimately be better because of Musk’s influence, he also says Elon could create a lot of instability and inefficient regulations.
“Elon cares deeply about some of the most important issues, like climate change and space exploration, so you get a lot of benefits,” Thompson says, “On the other hand, you get the chaos that comes with him and might end up with really inefficient regulations because they’re all skewed towards Musk companies.”
Watch full episode: Big Tech under Trump 2.0
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Big Tech under Trump 2.0
The tech landscape has shifted dramatically since Donald Trump’s first term in office: AI is booming, Meta and Google are fighting antitrust battles, and Elon Musk turned Twitter into “X.” In anticipation of Trump 2.0, social media platforms like Facebook and Instagram have announced they’ll prioritize free speech over content moderation and fact-checking. So what’s in store for the tech industry in 2025? On GZERO World, Atlantic CEO Nicholas Thompson joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss recent shifts at Big Tech companies and the intersection of technology, media, and politics. What does the tech industry stand to gain–or lose–from another Trump presidency? Will Elon Musk have a positive impact on the future of US tech policy? And how will things like the proliferation of bots and the fragmentation of social media affect political discourse online?
“Social media platforms, in general, are shifting to the right, and they are less important than they were five years ago. They’re bifurcated, dispersed, conversations happen across platforms,” Thompson explains, “As communities split, there will be less and less one town square where people discuss issues of consequence.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
What does Big Tech want from Trump?
What does Big Tech want from Donald Trump? Trump had a contentious relationship with the industry in his first administration. But in 2025, Silicon Valley is recalibrating. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks at the parade of tech leaders who have visited with Trump since his election win, including Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, Apple’s Tim Cook, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, and moves like Meta’s recent announcement it would scrap its fact-checking program, all to get on President-elect Trump’s good side as he prepares to return to office. So what does the industry stand to gain—or lose—from a second Trump term? Loosening AI and crypto regulation and a business-friendly White House are high on the wish list. However, blanket tariffs on China and Trump's grudge against Section 230 could mean that, despite the optimism, Trump 2.0 may not lead to the big windfall Big Tech hopes for.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Can Trump's tariff plan boost the US economy?
President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his love of tariffs, vowing steep import taxes on China, Mexico, Canada, and almost every product that crosses the US border on his first day in office. Will they boost US jobs and manufacturing, as Trump promises, or lead to rising inflation, as many economists warn? On GZERO World, Oren Cass, founder and chief economist at conservative think tank American Compass, joins Ian Bremmer for an in-depth discussion about Trump’s tariff plan and the future of US-China trade policy. Cass believes that tariffs are a way to level the playing field with China, which he says “flouts international rules and any concept of a free market.” He says tariffs can help correct global trade imbalances and doesn’t believe they’ll lead to a dramatic spike in consumer prices.
“When you raise money through a tariff, you don’t set that money on fire. It’s also tax revenue,” Cass explains, “We have a $2 trillion deficit. If I told you that there was some other tax that was going to help reduce the deficit, you’d probably say that would help reign inflation in.”
Watch full episode: The case for Trump's tariffs
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The case for Trump's tariffs
What will President-Elect Donald Trump’s election win mean for the US economy? After years of inflation and stagnating wage growth, millions of voters elected Trump off the back of his promise to usher in a “golden age of America.” Trump has vowed to raise tariffs, slash business regulation, and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, policies he says will put Americans first. But what will that mean practically for workers and consumers? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer is joined by Oren Cass, the founder and chief economist of the conservative think tank American Compass, who thinks Trump’s tariff plan will be a step in the right direction. Many economists argue that Trump's tariff plans will raise consumer prices and spark a global trade war, but Cass argues they're a necessary correction that will incentivize domestic manufacturing, reduce the deficit, and counter China’s unfair trade practices.
“If you actually believe that making things in America matters, then we are going to have to find a way to put a thumb on the scale for getting more of that investment back here,” Cass explains, “And I think that's what a tariff can help do.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).