Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Attendees of Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) campaign event for the Saxony state elections leave, as counter protestors stand in the background, in Dresden, Germany, August 29, 2024.
Immigration backlash to boost populists in Germany’s local elections
Populist opposition parties of the right and the left are set to make big gains in local elections in two key eastern German states this Sunday.
The far-right Alternative for Deutschland party is the front-runner in Saxony, eastern Germany’s most populous and prosperous state, and is expected to lead in neighboring Thuringia as well.
The staunchly anti-immigrant party — which is under investigation for ties to right-wing extremists — has surged in popularity over the past decade, especially in the former East Germany, where incomes continue to lag behind the former West. Meanwhile, the newish hard-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which also seeks to reduce immigration, is also positioned to do well.
This weekend’s election comes as the national coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s establishment, center-left SPD faces a growing backlash over immigration. The recent stabbing rampage by a Syrian refugee in the western German city of Solingen has exacerbated those concerns.
No “Alternative” path to power: Even if it comes in first, the AfD would need a coalition partner to govern, and there is no obvious match. The mainstream center-right CDU — currently in opposition nationally — is polling second in both states and has ruled out a tie-up. But a CDU alliance with Wagenknecht Alliance remains possible in Saxony. In Thuringia, the Left Party, which currently oversees a minority coalition government, is likely to suffer a defeat but could still be a kingmaking coalition partner for either Wagenknecht or the CDU.
The bigger picture: Misgivings over immigration continue to be a major factor in the slow-motion erosion of Germany’s centrist establishment parties.Croatian Prime Minister and Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party chief Andrej Plenkovic attends an election rally in Zagreb, Croatia, April 14, 2024.
Croatia heads to the polls in contentious election
Croatians vote on Wednesday in one of the most contentious parliamentary elections that the Balkan country, an EU member, has seen in years – and Russia is at the heart of the kerfuffle.
The governing center-right Croatian Democratic Union party, or HDZ, which has held power almost continuously since Croatia’s independence in 1991, is facing a stiff challenge from a center-left coalition led by the Social Democrat Party.
The SDP is helmed by Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, an outspoken populist who has ignored court orders to step down during the campaign and has accused the HDZ of corruption. HDZ leader and Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, a bitter rival, has warned that Milanovic wants to drag Croatia into “the Russian world.”
The HDZ’s platform is largely pro-EU and pro-NATO, and it supports backing Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Milanovic, on the other hand, has opposed providing training and weapons to Ukraine as a “deeply immoral” path to prolonging the conflict.
Polls show HDZ with a five-point lead over SDP, but economic misgivings could bolster the SDP and some other smaller parties enough to prevent HDZ from winning an outright majority, forcing a period of messy coalition building and uncertainty.