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The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality
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The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality

As the candidates make their final arguments in the 2024 US Presidential Election, the economy is front and center on the minds of voters. Despite all signs indicating stable and above-trend growth in the US, many Americans feel uncertain about how well the economy is doing, said Robert Kahn, Managing Director of Global Macro-Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group. He discussed the gap in US economic perception versus reality with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, in a Global Stage interview. Kahn noted that heightened political polarization has skewed views of economic performance while lingering geopolitical shocks and high prices add to concerns. Kahn emphasized that there is an element of worry around the “legacy of the pandemic…that Vice President Harris is just really struggling to overcome” even though underlying data proves otherwise. The two also discussed former President Trump's accusations that the Federal Reserve is "playing politics" with interest rates and what the impact would be globally if Trump were, as president, to assert a heavier hand in decision-making at the central bank.

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Episode 3: Will there be a recession?

Transcript

Listen: As record inflation meets rising interest rates, we’re examining the role of the US FederalReserve in protecting the economy from recession in the coming months.

15 years ago the world faced the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, brought on by a perfect storm of risky lending, mortgage defaults, and failures of financial institutions. In January 2008, the Fed made significant cuts to interest rates to stimulate the economy. Those rates have stayed historically low since then, but that’s rapidly changing.

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Episode 1: If the economy is good, why do I feel so bad?

Transcript

Listen: Last year the US economy grew 5.7%, the biggest growth rate in decades, yet at the beginning of 2022 fewer than 1 in 5 Americans thought it was strong. And as the world confronts the converging crises of pandemic and war in Ukraine, inflation and skyrocketing prices are further contributing to feelings of financial insecurity.

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Episode 2: Inflation, interest rates, and economic recovery

Transcript

Listen: When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in full force in the US, the government had to act quickly to keep the economy afloat. One major thing that the Federal Reserve did was lower interest rates to zero. That helped money keep flowing and borrowing rates low on things like mortgages, cars, and other things Americans needed. The danger in juicing the economy this way, however, is that inflation could go up, and higher consumer prices could end up hurting our wallets. How does the government strike the right balance? In this episode, we'll hear more about the US recovery, the international picture, and what could come next.

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