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Government shutdown and trade tensions test US economy
Global Stage

Government shutdown and trade tensions test US economy

As the US economy continues to defy expectations, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Global Macro Robert Kahn says the key question is whether a slowdown has been avoided or merely delayed. “The headline here is the impressive resilience of the US, maybe also the global economy over the last six months,” Kahn tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank–IMF Annual Meetings.

Global economic outlook: Is a recession already here?
World Bank & IMF Meetings

Global economic outlook: Is a recession already here?

“We’re heading toward a substantial U.S. recession,” said Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director, Global Macro.. “We may even be in one now.” That notion challenges the official economic outlook released this week by the International Monetary Fund, which was more cautious in its assessment.

The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality
Global Stage Interviews

The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality

As the candidates make their final arguments in the 2024 US Presidential Election, the economy is front and center on the minds of voters. Despite all signs indicating stable and above-trend growth in the US, many Americans feel uncertain about how well the economy is doing, said Robert Kahn, Managing Director of Global Macro-Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group.

Will there be a recession?
Living Beyond Borders Podcasts

Episode 3: Will there be a recession?

Listen: As record inflation meets rising interest rates, we’re examining the role of the US Federal Reserve in protecting the economy from recession in the coming months.15 years ago the world faced the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression, brought on by a perfect storm of risky lending, mortgage defaults, and failures of financial institutions. In January 2008, the Fed made significant cuts to interest rates to stimulate the economy. Those rates have stayed historically low since then, but that’s rapidly changing.

If the economy is good, why do I feel so bad?
Living Beyond Borders Podcasts

Episode 1: If the economy is good, why do I feel so bad?

Listen: Last year the US economy grew 5.7%, the biggest growth rate in decades, yet at the beginning of 2022 fewer than 1 in 5 Americans thought it was strong. And as the world confronts the converging crises of pandemic and war in Ukraine, inflation and skyrocketing prices are further contributing to feelings of financial insecurity.

Inflation, interest rates, and economic recovery: illustration
Living Beyond Borders Podcasts

Episode 2: Inflation, interest rates, and economic recovery

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in full force in the US, the government had to act quickly to keep the economy afloat. One major thing that the Federal Reserve did was lower interest rates to zero. That helped money keep flowing and borrowing rates low on things like mortgages, cars, and other things Americans needed. The danger in juicing the economy this way, however, is that inflation could go up, and higher consumer prices could end up hurting our wallets. How does the government strike the right balance? In this episode, we'll hear more about the US recovery, the international picture, and what could come next.