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Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
How will Marcos 2.0 rule the Philippines?
The Marcoses are back in power in the Philippines.
What seemed unthinkable just months ago became reality on Monday. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator, is on the cusp of winning the presidential election by a landslide. What's more, he's the first candidate to get more than 50% of the vote in the single-round race since his family was chased out of power in 1986.
This decisive triumph is the culmination of a decades-long quest by the most famous and polarizing dynasty in modern Philippine politics to restore its legacy and return to Malacañang Palace. But will Marcos govern like his autocrat dad or deliver on his vague promise of "unity" to appease Filipinos with bitter memories of his father’s iron-fisted rule and kleptocracy?
A second Marcos presidency will put the country’s democracy on life support, argues Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman.
"Philippine democracy has been rapidly eroding under [current President Rodrigo] Duterte by all metrics," says Arugay. He doesn’t believe the democratic system will collapse under Marcos but rather move toward "the most minimal procedural definition of democracy” — elections that can easily be manipulated by the state.
In any case, Arugay expects the broader illiberal trend to continue. It’s only a matter of time, he fears, before Marcos resorts to populist-authoritarian strategies to consolidate power — such as removing presidential term limits — because winning an absolute majority gives him a blank check.
But maybe Marcos will be the unifier he claims to be, says Antonio Contreras, professor of political science at De La Salle University and a Marcos supporter. Marcos, he argues, will show Filipinos he can succeed where previous presidents failed by charming his critics.
"He's not going to be confrontational," explains Contreras. "He's going to try to do a lot of diplomacy by talking to people who are against him” — including those who remain suspicious of his motives because “they cannot separate the son from the father."
Still, Marcos’ wide margin of victory suggests that many Filipinos are nostalgic about the strongman rule of his dad, which may have prompted them to vote for Duterte six years ago.
"There is still that memory, that longing, that nostalgia," says Contreras. Post-1986 democracy, he points out, has failed to deliver in the eyes of many Filipinos because it neither transformed society nor proved to be any better than the “old regime.”
Indeed, the Marcos campaign has successfully pushed the "golden era" narrative on social media. His army of bots targeted Gen-Z'ers with viral disinformation videos on TikTok, and the strategy worked: the 64-year-old's "base" is Filipinos under 40, which account for more than half the electorate.
Once he takes over, Arugay expects Marcos to follow in Duterte's footsteps by weaponizing social media to keep cultivating his image and protect his regime against critics.
"Given the pernicious polarization the country is in right now, this disinformation network is needed to rally the troops, target enemies, and hide the possible incompetence and mismanagement of his government," he says. "It’ll be a lean and mean propaganda-spewing machine."
One area where Marcos would be wise to follow his dad's playbook is foreign policy. The elder Marcos was a master at leveraging the Philippines' strategic value for the US war in Vietnam to get things from Washington, which supported him almost until the end and granted his family exile in Hawaii.
Now, his son faces a similar challenge with his country caught in the crossfire of the US-China rivalry.
"It's going to be a balancing act," says Contreras. While the Philippines has a longstanding relationship with the US, Duterte moved the country closer to China, and Beijing is eager to retain influence over Manila due to its interest in the disputed South China Sea. It would thus be "suicidal" for Marcos to “put all his eggs in one basket” like Duterte did with China.
Arugay agrees. If he's well-advised, Marcos will hedge on US-China like (most of) his predecessors did. But if the Americans push him too hard, he might double down on Duterte's approach and embrace China more — which a majority of Filipinos will surely resent.Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
Dynasty + disinformation = Philippine democracy
The Philippine presidential election is a week away, and two uncomfortable characteristics of modern democracy in the country — dynasty and disinformation — are expected to shape the result.
Leading the polls by a wide margin is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator. The elder Marcos ruled the Philippines for 21 years, including eight years under martial law, before he was overthrown in 1986 by the so-called “People Power” uprising against his kleptocracy.
Two scions team up. Marcos has partnered with VP hopeful Sara Duterte, daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, who was ahead of her running mate in the surveys before she opted to run for the second-highest office instead. Although she has maintained a distance from her father, the Marcos-Duterte combination is a potent one that spans the country’s geography and demography, allying the northern districts loyal to Marcos with the deep south, where the Dutertes are most powerful.
Both have enjoyed the privilege of power under their respective fathers’ rules. Marcos entered politics as a vice governor in 1981, when his dad was still in power, and until recently Duterte was mayor of her hometown of Davao City, her father’s old job.
All in the family. Dynasties, a longtime staple of Philippine politics, have tightened their grip on power in recent years. Research by online news site Rappler shows that so-called "fat" dynasties – where several members simultaneously hold elected posts — now occupy 29% of local offices, 80% of governorships, and two-thirds of seats in Congress.
To prove the point, Duterte’s two sons are eyeing congressional and mayoral seats in the upcoming elections, and Marcos’ son is also being prepped as an heir-apparent.
Laws that are supposed to curb the influence of political families don't work — hardly surprising given that they've been passed by politicians who themselves belong to dynasties. For instance, many posts are limited to three consecutive terms, but the trick is to get a spouse or child to keep the seat warm for one term, and then run again.
Still, being a Marcos also comes with serious baggage because it’s perhaps the most polarizing name in Philippine politics.
Marcos’ ascent is a divisive subject and opens up the wounds of the past. However, where some see the entrenched power of dynastic politics and patronage, propelled by a slick PR campaign that has done a remarkable job of whitewashing the family’s sins, a new generation sees vindication.
Indeed, Marcos has found his edge in demographics. The majority of Filipinos who’ll vote for president on May 9 are under 30 years old. They didn’t grow up under his father’s martial law regime, under which 70,000 people were detained, 34,000 tortured, and over 3,000 killed.
The younger Marcos’ carefully crafted rise to presidential frontrunner status is the culmination of a years-long, sophisticated social media disinformation strategy pushing his father’s rule as a golden era. He’s also been careful to avoid debates so he doesn’t have to talk about what his family did, and he lets big-name local politicians campaign on his behalf.
Meanwhile, his main rival, Vice President Leni Robredo, has been the target of a constant barrage of online disinformation, much of it about her and her family’s sex lives, by pro-Marcos supporters.
When the likes of Facebook, Twitter and Wikipedia have taken action against his trolls, bots, spam and manipulation, and even the powerful Catholic Church rejected the online “historical revisionism,” the Marcos campaign responded by pivoting to newer platforms like TikTok to appeal to the Philippines’ massive vote bank of Gen-Z’ers, converting teenagers and influencers who are far removed from the trauma of martial law to sympathize with the Marcos dynasty.
Can anyone beat the dynamic dynastic duo? Of the other candidates, the only one with a shot — albeit a long one — at being a spoiler for the Marcos-Duterte ticket is Robredo, also the lone female presidential candidate.
Robredo, who beat Marcos for VP in 2016, has carved out a reputation as a fierce critic of Duterte's strong-arm tactics. Although she trails Marcos by double digits, her campaign is experiencing a late surge in numbers attending her vibrant, proudly feminist rallies in a political culture that’s as misogynistic as it is dynastic.What We’re Watching: Zemmour jumps in, Bong bows out, Turks get mad
Zemmour for president. After months of rising in opinion polls, far-right French polemicist Erich Zemmour has made it official: he’s running in next year’s French presidential election. Zemmour, who blames Muslims, liberals, elites, and the EU for what he sees as the decline and emasculation of France, says he is running in order to “prevent our children and our grandchildren from experiencing barbarity.” Could he win? Never say jamais these days, particularly as Zemmour has something of Donald Trump’s provocative star power and media savvy.Still, most polls show that while he could reach a second-round runoff against current President Emmanuel Macron, he would then lose decisively as moderates from across the political spectrum unite behind the incumbent. The more immediate political problem is for far-right stalwart Marine Le Pen who, in trying to broaden her appeal beyond the far right, now finds herself outflanked by the more unapologetically extreme Zemmour.
Bell tolls for Bong in the Philippines. Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, President Rodrigo Duterte’s preferred successor, has dropped out of next year’s presidential race, citing pressure from his family. That means Duterte, who is legally limited to just one term, can now give his (valuable) endorsement to someone else. As things stand, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr — son of the dictator who ran the country until the mid 1980s — is still the clear frontrunner, thanks to his name recognition and strong political alliances in vote-rich regions of the country. But current vice president Leni Robredo is gaining traction, and there is still an outside shot that world-famous boxer Manny Pacquiao, now a senator, could land a punch or two of his own ahead of the vote next May. Duterte’s endorsement could give either of those challengers a big boost, but he’s currently not on great terms with either of them.
In Turkey, prices rise and anger grows. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, like all world leaders, wants a strong economy that can boost his popularity. But Erdogan, unlike other leaders, directly intervenes in the operations of his country’s central bank. By keeping interest rates low, he encourages borrowing that can help boost economic growth. But the constant surge of money into the marketplace also fuels inflation. That’s now happening once again in Turkey, and many consumers are furious. The Turkish lira has lost more than 45 percent of its value this year, and nearly 20 percent just in the past week. Protests are popping up around the country, and police arrested more than 70 protesters in Istanbul last week. Opposition parties are calling for early elections and hoping to organize mass demonstrations. If the unrest grows, Erdogan could declare a state of emergency and grant himself powers more sweeping than those he already has. Turkey looks to be headed for a rough new year.
A woman holds a placard during a protest following the vice presidential bid of Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for the 2022 national elections, at the Commission of Human Rights, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, November 14, 2021.
Philippine presidential election: “All in the family”
Philippine elections have always been, Filipinos will candidly admit, a bit of a circus. Come campaign season, politicians fan out across the country, showing off their best tricks to lure voters into giving them their support.
So, what does it take to get elected president? Not coherent programs to cut widespread poverty and rampant corruption. Everyone knows those promises will surely not be kept.
The holy grail of Philippine politics is name recognition. Yet it's not enough to simply be famous. The golden ticket is to belong to a well-known political family.
Even better, join forces with another powerful dynasty — which is exactly what the two biggest names in Philippine politics today have done to win the May 2022 presidential election.
One half of that duo is Ferdinand Marcos Jr. If that name rings a bell it's because he's the son of the late dictator who ruled the Philippines with an iron fist for 21 years. The elder Marcos and his famously shoe-obsessed wife Imelda are believed to have plundered as much as $10 billion from the state's coffers before they were chased out of office — and the country — by the "People Power" revolution of 1986.
Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines-Diliman, says that Marcos' presidential bid is the culmination of a decades-long quest by his family to regain power after narrowly losing the VP race in 2016.
The other half is none other than VP pick Sara Duterte. If that name rings a bell it's because she's the daughter of Rodrigo, the current president with aspiring dictator vibes of his own.
The Duterte scion has followed her dad's 2016 election playbook to a tee: tease a run for president, turn it down to remain mayor of your hometown, and finally change your mind at the eleventh hour to file your candidacy "reluctantly" because you just can't disappoint your fans. And don't forget to throw in some family drama too.
Right now, the Marcos-Duterte tandem looks like it could easily run away with the election. With the president's daughter by his side, Marcos is now the clear frontrunner, polling at an impressive 47 percent. The couple also faces weak opposition at the moment in the boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao and Leni Robredo, the competent yet low-key vice president.
Part of the twist here is that the Philippine electoral system for president is warped: it's a one-round contest in which whoever gets a plurality wins. Presidents have been elected with barely a quarter of the vote. Candidates often only need to lock in one or two vote-rich regions outside Manila, as Marcos and Duterte both can, to secure victory.
What's more, the Marcos-Duterte campaign is dominating social media — a silver bullet in a nation rife with online disinformation and fake news, where nearly half the population gets their news from Facebook. And guess who Facebook helped win the last time?
Rodrigo Duterte himself, who's become an unexpected thorn in the side of Marcos and the younger Duterte. Until the last minute the term-limited Duterte senior flirted with the idea of running for VP, even against Sara, but ultimately decided to seek a Senate seat right on the buzzer.
Perhaps upset that his daughter ignored his advice to go for the top job, Duterte is now endorsing another candidate instead of his ally Marcos, with his daughter as vice president (the Philippines elects presidents and VPs separately).
Arugay says not having a single ticket is a problem for both Duterte and Marcos. For one thing, it'll split the pro-Duterte vote, not to mention confusing voters. For another, Marcos will have to walk on eggshells with the notoriously thin-skinned president because the Supreme Court, which may hear a disqualification case against Marcos over tax evasion, is packed with Duterte appointees.
What is this all so bad for Philippine democracy? For Arugay, this election is a "new low." It's turned voting for president into an "all in the family" affair because dynasties rather than parties have determined the candidates.
When political parties are created overnight and can implode just as quickly, elections are mere popularity contests. Without sound debate about ideas and policy, the country's many problems will never get fixed.
Unfortunately, as long as those who have the power to reform the Philippine political system are the same politicians who cause the problems in the first place, any hope of progress remains a very long shot.
Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (R) speaks next to U.S. Vice President Joe Biden during talks at a hotel in Beijing August 19, 2011.
What We’re Watching: Biden-Xi on Zoom, Cuban protest, Duterte family drama, Qaddafi junior for prez, Steele Dossier skewered
US-China virtual summit. Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet face-to-face (virtually) on Monday for the first time since Biden became US president last January. The two have a lot to discuss: trade wars, the 2022 Beijing Olympics — which Biden won't attend, but probably won't boycott — and how to deliver on the joint US-China pledge on climate made at COP26. But the elephant in the Zoom room is Taiwan, an ultra-sensitive issue for China. Xi is seething at the Biden administration's recent public support for the self-governing island, which the Chinese regard as part of their own territory. The Americans insist they are simply doing what they've always done since 1979 — pledging to help Taiwan defend itself. Can Biden and Xi navigate these issues in a calm, cool way? It may help that the two leaders have known each other for more than a decade, when they were both VPs. With US-China relations getting chillier by the day, the stakes are high.
The streets of Cuba. For months, Cuban activists and dissidents have been planning a fresh, island-wide, anti-government protest. Well, today is the day, and the stakes are high. The Cuban regime, which has refused to issue permits for any marches, says it will not tolerate any unrest, and has accused the US of being behind the demonstrations. Back in July, you might remember, Cuba witnessed the biggest anti-government protests in decades, as popular anger over shortages, poverty and political repression boiled over into the streets. Since then some 1,200 people have been arrested, with roughly half of them languishing in jail while awaiting trial on charges of sedition or sabotage that carry sentences of up to 25 years. We're keeping an eye not only on what happens in Cuba, but also on how the Biden administration responds. The US president will be under immense pressure from the powerful Cuban-American constituency in Florida, as well as Republicans more broadly, to impose tougher sanctions on the island. But there's an argument that the interests of the Cuban people might be better served by doing just the opposite.
Duterte telenovela. The daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will run next year for vice president... while her dad will seek a Senate seat. The term-limited senior Duterte had threatened to run against her, but changed his mind again at the eleventh hour. (The president — who faces legal action over his bloody drug war unless his successor declines to prosecute him — was initially going to run alongside his daughter, but then dropped out because he said most Filipinos were against it.) Meanwhile, although the country elects presidents and VPs separately, Sara Duterte will be on a de-facto ticket with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the former dictator and allied with the Dutertes. Expect more drama during the campaign from the Dutertes and other big names in the Philippines, where politics is deeply personal and parties serve as mere vehicles for individuals with high name recognition. With boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao also running in a very crowded field, buckle up for an epic battle to replace Duterte in May 2022.
Qaddafi redux in Libya? From the progeny of one dictator to another. Ten years after the death of former Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif — dressed in Berber robes eerily similar to his father's classic outfit — registered on Sunday to run for president in the December 24 election. With his comeback, Saif Qaddafi hopes that those nostalgic for the stability of the previous regime, as well as Libyans tired of the decade of chaos and civil war that followed his dad's ouster, will give him their vote. But if the elections happen at all, which is quite uncertain due to ongoing bickering between factions on the rules and schedule, Qaddafi's son faces long odds. For one thing, it's unlikely he will campaign in public because he fears for his safety and has an outstanding ICC arrest warrant for crimes against humanity (a Libyan court also sentenced him to death for war crimes in 2015, although that ruling was later overturned). For another, he'll be up against tough rivals backed by different groups of foreign powers like General Khalifa Haftar, a warlord supported by the Gulf states and Russia; Aguila Saleh, the influential parliamentary speaker; and PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, head of the UN-backed National Unity Government.
US media trust wars. Remember the Steele Dossier? Yes, the oppo research on Donald Trump compiled by a former British spy that alleged Russia had kompromatleverage over the then-US presidential candidate. After Trump won the 2016 election, several media outlets openly hostile to Trump covered the unverified report — Buzzfeed even published it in full — to suggest that Russia helped get Trump elected. Trump and the GOP-friendly media blasted it as part of a liberal "witch hunt" to undermine his election victory. Well, in the past few days the dossier itself has been skewered after Igor Danchenko, the source of the report's most juicy claim — that Trump got Russian prostitutes to defile a bed Barack Obama slept on in a Moscow hotel — was indicted for lying to the FBI about it. The charges against Danchenko subsequently led the Washington Post to correct two old articles that cited the dossier, the basis for FBI surveillance of the Trump campaign now being probed by US attorney John Durham. Expect the scandal to dominate the US political conversation for weeks, and drive an even bigger media trust wedge between Democrats and Republicans.Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Philippines, and his daughter Sara arrive at the Imperial Palace to attend the enthronement ceremony in Tokyo on October 22, 2019.
What We're Watching: Duterte family drama in the Philippines
Duterte telenovela. The daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will run next year for vice president... while her dad will seek a Senate seat. The term-limited senior Duterte had threatened to run against her, but changed his mind again at the eleventh hour. (The president — who faces legal action over his bloody drug war unless his successor declines to prosecute him — was initially going to run alongside his daughter, but then dropped out because he said most Filipinos were against it.) Meanwhile, although the country elects presidents and VPs separately, Sara Duterte will be on a de-facto ticket with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the former dictator and allied with the Dutertes. Expect more drama during the campaign from the Dutertes and other big names in the Philippines, where politics is deeply personal and parties serve as mere vehicles for individuals with high name recognition. With boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao also running in a very crowded field, buckle up for an epic battle to replace Duterte in May 2022.
Philippine President Duterte attends the ASEAN Plus Three Summit in Singapore.
Will the Philippines’ next president uphold Duterte’s controversial policies?
With the US-China rivalry intensifying in Southeast Asia, the May 2022 presidential contest in the Philippines is shaping up as the most important election in years for the region's balance of power. President Rodrigo Duterte has pivoted the traditionally pro-US country toward China, but the one-term limit means he cannot seek reelection, offering the possibility of a reversal under a new president. Similarly, he/she may rein in a violent anti-drugs campaign that has drawn international condemnation. We talked to Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to get some sense of who Duterte's potential successors are, and how they might approach his controversial legacy.
Do we know yet who's running?
Nearly 100 candidates registered for the 2022 presidential contest ahead of the initial deadline of 8 October, though the vast majority of these will fade away and parties can change their candidates up until 15 November. Currently, there are six credible contenders for the top job: Bongbong Marcos, a former senator and son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos; Isko Moreno, mayor of Manila and a TV/film actor; Senator Manny Pacquiao, the world-famous former boxer; Vice President Leni Robredo, head of the opposition Liberal Party; Senator Ping Lacson; and Senator Bato dela Rosa, the last-minute pick from Duterte's party. The presidential contest is one round, with the prize going to whoever secures the largest share of the popular vote in what is already a crowded field.
Who are the frontrunners?
Marcos is leading the pack among those who've confirmed their participation so far, benefiting from strong support in much of Luzon, the Philippines' main island. He is less popular elsewhere, however, and is generally seen as a divisive figure who evokes memories of his father's brutal regime. And he trails Sara Duterte-Carpio, the president's daughter and mayor of Davao, in rankings of all potential candidates. Moreno and Pacquiao are also both very popular and would pose a stiff challenge for either Duterte-Carpio or Marcos by appealing to a broad range of voters, though their campaign machinery is not (yet) as strong. Nor should Robredo be written off despite her low poll ratings — her decision to enter the contest has been warmly welcomed by many who are eager to turn a page on the Duterte era; she has been one of the president's staunchest and most consistent critics.
Is Duterte-Carpio expected to eventually enter the race?
She continues to disappoint her legion of supporters — who have been using the hashtag #RunSaraRun to build momentum online — by ruling it out. Days before the last week's filing deadline, she registered to run for another term as mayor of Davao her father's old job. However, her denials should not be taken at face value; there is a tradition of Philippine politicians (especially in the Duterte family) not wanting to look overly eager for power, lest it turn off voters. Several parties have presented what are clearly "placeholder" candidates in the hope that Duterte-Carpio will use one of them as a vehicle to get to Malacañang Palace. She has consistently topped the polls of potential presidential candidates, though her lead has narrowed recently while Marcos's numbers have been rising. This Duterte brand may have been tarnished somewhat by the president's perceived mishandling of the pandemic and a recent corruption scandal — or perhaps because her strategy of delaying a decision is backfiring.
Will Duterte's endorsement be important?
While the president's approval ratings have dipped, they remain very high (75 percent in the latest poll), handing a significant advantage to whomever he backs. That does not, however, guarantee victory for his chosen candidate. The election will become much closer if both Duterte-Carpio and Marcos run for the top job, splitting the vote of supporters of the current president and potentially allowing a candidate such as Moreno or Pacquiao to slip through the middle. Similarly, the Duterte machine would be easier to defeat if they and anti-Duterte politicians fall in behind a single candidate. However, it seems Pacquiao, Moreno, Robredo and Lacson are, for now, determined to stay in the race.
Could Duterte still run for vice president?
Though he recently abandoned plans to run for the vice presidency in response to polls showing voters were lukewarm on the idea, he could throw his hat back in the ring if the polling improves, and if his daughter doesn't run. Among many possible permutations, Marcos or Duterte-Carpio could also sign on to another ticket as vice-presidential candidates. A ticket with either Duterte or Duterte-Carpio as running mate would be much more competitive, although the current frontrunner for VP is Tito Sotto, Lacson's running mate and with big name recognition as a former TV personality.
Is the next president likely to uphold Duterte's legacy on China and the anti-drugs campaign?
None of the main contenders would hug China as closely as Duterte has, though changes in policy would be more moderate under Duterte-Carpio, Moreno, and Lacson, while Pacquiao and Robredo would shift foreign policy more dramatically back toward a firm pro-US stance. Either way, the Philippines appears likely to become a geopolitical "swing state" in terms of the US-China battle for influence in the region. As for the anti-drugs crackdown, polls suggest it has been broadly popular in the Philippines thanks to a perceived reduction in crime, but it has always been tainted with concerns about extra-judicial killings. An impending International Criminal Court investigation will bring to light more evidence of human rights violations. Duterte-Carpio, Marcos, and Dela Rosa would likely maintain (perhaps with some nuances) a tough crackdown on drugs; other candidates would likely distance themselves more from Duterte's controversial campaign.
Peter Mumford is practice head for South and Southeast Asia at Eurasia Group.
Philippines court convicts top journalist — what comes next?
Over a year ago, we reported on Maria Ressa's conviction for cyber-libel in the Philippines. While her appeal works its way through the country's byzantine justice system, today she won the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize. Below is our original piece published on June 15, 2020.
Ever since the rough-spoken populist Rodrigo Duterte was elected president of the Philippines in 2016, journalists have warned that his open disdain for the media would put press freedom in the country at risk.
On Monday, those fears were underscored when the authorities found Maria Ressa, an internationally-renowned journalist and fierce critic of Duterte's, guilty of libel under the country's cybercrimes law.
What's the back story? In 2012, the online news site Rappler, which Ressa heads, published an article linking a local businessman to illegal activities, citing an unnamed intelligence report. A Manila judged ruled that the article violated the libel provisions in a 2012 cybercrime law. But the story was actually published four months before that law even came into effect. The authorities cited a 2014 update to the article — merely to fix a series of typos — as justification for throwing the book at Ressa. Even then, the charges weren't filed until 2017.
Critics say the case against Ressa and Rappler is politically motivated. Duterte is no fan of journalists in general, but he has singled out Rappler over its coverage of his popular but bloody war on drugs. He has accused the news site of being a CIA front, and said Ressa is part of a conspiracy to topple the administration. The abuse was so bad that in 2018, TIME included Ressa among the journalists named Person of the Year for defying attacks on the press.
Ressa, for her part, has repeatedly warned that Duterte is weaponizing political institutions, as well as social media, to stifle dissent. Last year, she told GZERO Media that she feared the consequences of Duterte's allies winning control over the Senate, one of the last checks on his power. The cybercrime law has proven to be a powerful tool. A new anti-terror law — which allows detaining alleged "terrorists" for up to 24 days without a judicial warrant — will soon be approved as well.
Ressa's conviction also has wider implications for press freedom in the Philippines. Before the ruling, the Philippines had already slipped two places in the 2020 World Press Freedom Index to 136 among 180 countries, and it has already fallen 11 spots from where it was in the first full year of Duterte's presidency. Last month the government shuttered the country's top television network. Ressa's fate will make Filipino journalists even more hesitant to hold the government accountable.
This is part of a troubling global trend. Press freedom is under threat around the world. Not only in authoritarian countries, but in once-vibrant democracies – like the Philippines – where populist leaders are eroding institutions. The watchdog Freedom House has found that over the past five years, press freedom has declined in 16 of the world's freest countries.
What will happen to Ressa? She faces up to six years in prison, but will remain free while her appeal winds its way through the labyrinthine Philippine justice system. But things don't get any easier: Ressa and Rappler are also facing another 7 active charges.
Disclaimer: The author of this story is a former employee of Rappler.