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1 story 3 numbers: Three years post the Dobbs decision
Three years after the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a 1973 ruling that protected federal abortion access, the United States remains deeply fractured on the issue. The ruling gave states the power to set their own abortion laws, triggering a wave of bans across the South and Midwest, while other states moved to safeguard access. Here’s a look at where things stand nationwide, three years on.
Supreme Court will rule on abortion rights once again. What’s at stake now?
“The [abortion pill case] affects women across the country, it’s not state by state,” Bazelon stresses, “It’s the FDA’s authority to allow pills to be shipped everywhere and other rules that have made abortion pills more accessible for women in blue as well as red states.”
A group of doctors is challenging the Food and Drug Administration's authority to allow doctors to prescribe abortion pills without an in-person visit with a patient and for those pills to be sent through the mail. Bazelon explains that this group of plaintiffs is unusual in that they haven’t yet experienced direct harm from the FDA’s ruling, which you usually need to prove has happened before a case makes it all the way up to the highest court in the land. Four female justices are also on the bench this year, a historic high-water mark. Could that make a difference in the way justices rule on either case?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
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Ian Explains: Does it matter if Americans don't trust the Supreme Court?
Public approval for the US Supreme Court is at an all-time low. But how much does that matter really? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down why voters believe the Court has become more partisan and politically motivated in recent years and whether public perception makes any difference in how it operates.
According to Gallup polling, SCOTUS has had a strong net approval rating, much higher than the President and Congress, for most of the last 25 years. But as of September 2023, 58% of Americans disapproved of the Supreme Court, a record high. The Court’s credibility has come under fire following ethics scandals involving Justice Clarence Thomas and a string of 6-3 conservative majority opinions, like the June 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade, increasingly out of step with public opinion.
It’s a class question of separation of powers: The justices aren’t elected, and the judicial branch of government isn’t designed to respond to popular will. But if SCOTUS falls out of step with voters completely, it risks losing the very thing that gives it legitimacy: public faith.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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What Florida's abortion rulings mean for the 2024 US election
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: Abortion.
Abortion is the big story in US politics this week with the Florida state Supreme Court ruling that a ballot initiative that would protect access to abortion up until fetal viability will be on the ballot in abortion in Florida this year. Democrats are excited about this ruling because it was starting to look like Florida was increasingly out of reach for them.
Republicans now out register Democratic voters in the state by over 800,000 registered voters, which is a flip from a decade ago when Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 500,000 registered voters. Florida is looking like more and more of a red state with a massive 20 point victory for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterm elections. That's what was making Democrats feel like it wouldn't be a very competitive state in this presidential cycle.
However, with abortion on the ballot, they now see an opportunity for outside groups to come in and spend a bunch of money who otherwise wouldn't have sent money there, forcing Republicans to respond by potentially wasting money there. The state is probably a little bit too red for it to truly be competitive for President Biden in this election cycle.
But this abortion referendum story is going to play out across the country. Democratic activists have the opportunity to get abortion on the ballot in two critical swing states of Nevada and Arizona. But it's unlikely they would show up in the other swing states of Wisconsin or Michigan, because Wisconsin had a recent state Supreme Court decision about it. And Michigan had an abortion referendum in 2022. That doesn't mean they can't find other ways to make this election about access to abortion, which has been a very positive issue for Democrats.
There have been seven state referendums since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And in each of those, the electorate shifted significantly to the left from what they did in the 2020 results, even in deep red states like Kansas and Kentucky. So this is going to be an important issue to keep watching throughout the election. And could be one of the wild cards that helps Joe Biden overcome the bad polls that he's been experiencing in recent weeks.
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey
Republicans rally to protect IVF
After Alabama’s Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos should be legally considered children this week, lawmakers are scrambling to pass legislation to protect in vitro fertilization.
The ruling only applies to the three families who brought the initial lawsuit, but its wording has many medical professionals worried it could be used against them. Three major fertility clinics halted IVF treatments in the state this week.
While all of Alabama’s Supreme Court justices are Republican, many politicians in their party are trying to distance themselves from the ruling and take action to counteract it. Republican legislators, who have a super-majority in Alabama, are considering introducing a bill to protect the treatment. Donald Trump has condemned the ruling and is urging Alabama’s GOP to protect IVF.
Does this mean the GOP is pro-choice now? No, we wouldn’t go that far.
The Alabama ruling has highlighted the schism among Republicans who believe life begins at conception and those who want to protect reproductive services. Republicans are also realizing that reproductive restrictions rally Democrats, and extreme positions like this one are gifts to their opponents ahead of the 2024 election.
Texas Supreme Court stands firm on limiting abortion access
This reversal in the Lone Star State, renowned for its stringent abortion laws, came just mere hours after Cox's legal team revealed her decision to journey beyond Texas borders to undergo the procedure. The court asserted that the lower court erred in deeming Cox, more than 20 weeks pregnant, eligible for a medical exemption, contending that her doctor couldn't substantiate the pregnancy seriously threatened her health. Texas' abortion prohibitions allow the procedure solely in instances where a woman's health or life is jeopardized.
This ruling, specific to Cox's current pregnancy, signals the court's broader reluctance to approve abortions beyond the most serious medical cases. Cox was the first adult pregnant woman to seek a court-permitted termination of her pregnancy since Roe v. Wade passed in 1973. As a test case, Texas’ precedent could influence the rulings in various other states with abortion bans, where legal challenges have surfaced as physicians argue that the bans impede abortions even in cases of severe pregnancy complications, sparking a complex and contentious legal landscape.
Israel/Palestine one of the few Middle East areas getting less stable
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Israel launched its biggest military operation in the West Bank since 2002. How will it impact Israeli-Palestinian stability?
Well, I mean, pretty badly. The problem is that Israel has no interest in reopening talks with the Palestinians on a potential two-state solution. The country has moved towards the Right on that issue, and the Palestinians don't have effective governance, for the Palestinian authority in the West Bank is increasingly weakened and in Gaza, it's really a matter of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. So, there's no movement towards talking. Instead, it's the Israelis taking more territory, building more settlements, and the Palestinians getting angrier and more desperate. And no surprise that you're going to see more military confrontation on the back of that. Having said that, it's one of the few areas where things aren't getting more stable in the Middle East, almost everywhere else, the Gulf, Iran's relations with the GCC, Qatar and the GCC, Assad getting normalized, Yemen with a ceasefire, most of the Middle East actually looks more stable.
Is Bolsonaro's political career over?
Well, they say he can't run, the judiciary has said, now he can't, he's out of politics till 2030. I mean, you know, if you look at the United States, he'd still have a couple of decades going, right? You look at Biden and Trump, you just never retire if you're an American political leader. You get to govern forever or at least keep running. But Bolsonaro will still be by far the most popular leader on the Right and therefore has kingmaker status. I think, you know, who he decides he'd like to see as running for the presidency in the next electoral cycle will have a significant leg up. And by the way, he increasingly talks about his wife in that role. So, I mean, keep it in the family. Why not?
Okay, with student loan forgiveness struck down, does it hurt Biden's reelection efforts?
Yeah, I think it does, on balance. I mean, the fact that the executive increasingly is showing that it is on the back foot vis-à-vis not just a legislature that's very polarized, though they have had some wins there, but also a 6-3 Conservative Supreme Court, and that that has struck down a number of issues that is hurting them, I think that does matter. I think a promise to forgive student loans and not being able to get that done quickly or as big is a promise that Biden, you know, he can say, I'm still working for you, but if he can't get it done, people aren't benefiting. On affirmative action, it's more in between. I mean, then it depends on how the question is phrased, whether or not it's actually popular, unpopular. On balance, I would say striking it down as more with the population as opposed to the abortion issue, where clearly the population is on the side of Roe and against today's Supreme Court. So still very, very polarized, the US. Not surprised, that's sort of the theme of the day. I hope everyone is well and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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US map showing the number of abortions by state
The Graphic Truth: US abortion rates after Dobbs
It’s now been a year since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, paving the way for many states to roll back their own abortion rights. Some have all but banned access, while others have introduced fetal heartbeat laws, making the procedure (and medication abortions) legal until six weeks of gestation, before many women know they are pregnant.
As access has been severely curtailed across much of the South and Midwest, blue states – like Colorado and Illinois – have seen an influx of women traveling to their states in pursuit of abortion care. We take a look at abortion rate changes from April 2022, just before the Dobbs decision, to March 2023.