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Representatives of political and military groups in Sudan take part in a meeting to form a counter-government in the areas occupied by the Rapid Support Forces militia.
Sudan’s RSF declares ‘Government of Peace,’ but war continues
After nearly two years of armed conflict, Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, signed a charter with allied groups on Saturday to establish a “government of peace and unity” in territories now under their control. The signing took place behind closed doors in Nairobi, Kenya, prompting Sudan torecall its ambassador and accuse Kenyan President William Ruto of “encouraging a conspiracy” that could permanently partition the country, along the lines of Libya and Yemen.
Who’s in on the deal? In addition to the RSF, signatoriesincludeAbdelaziz al-Hilu, leader of a faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, which controls much of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, and Abdel Rahim Daglo, deputy and brother of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
What is next? The government's formation will reportedly be announced from inside Sudan this week, but it is unlikely to get widespread international recognition. The RSF stands accused of genocide in a war that the United Nations estimates has killed over 24,000 people and driven 14 million people from their homes. Meanwhile, the Sudanese army has intensified its military operations, recently regaining control of el-Gitaina and breaking the RSF’s siege of the key southern state capital of el-Obeid, and it may be on the verge of retaking the capital of Khartoum in the next few days.Plumes of smoke rise during clashes between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the army in Khartoum, Sudan, on Sept. 26, 2024.
A milestone moment in Sudan’s civil war?
That said, the recapture of Khartoum would not end the war. It would solidify the Armed Forces’ control of the east of the country, but the RSF’s hold on the west remains strong, particularly if the army allows RSF forces to retreat unchallenged from the capital. But it’s also possible the army will try to inflict maximum destruction on RSF fighters, making the final battle for Khartoum exceptionally brutal, even by the standards of this bloody civil war.
According to the International Rescue Committee, Sudan “now represents the largest and fastest displacement crisis in the world” and “the largest humanitarian crisis on record.” More than 30 million people, over half of Sudan’s population, need humanitarian help.FILE PHOTO: Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan arrives at Beijing Capital International Airport before the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Summit, in Beijing, China September 3, 2024.
US sanctions Sudanese leader
The United States on Thursday imposed financial sanctions on Sudan's army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The move came a week after Washington imposedsimilar sanctions on the leader of the rebel Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, whose militia has been warring with government forces for the past 18 months, ina conflict that has killed up to 150,000 people,displaced 11 million, and caused 26 million to go hungry.
Why sanction both sides? US officials said Thursday that the Sudanese army deployedchemical weapons against the RSF at least twice, and there are concerns they may use them in populated areas in the capital, Khartoum. They have also committed humanitarian violations and used starvation as a weapon of war.
As for the RSF, on Jan. 7, Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused the group ofperpetrating a genocide against the non-Arab Masalit people, killing boys and men and committing sexual violence against women and girls because of their ethnicity.
Washington doesn’t want to pick sides but to pressure them into a ceasefire. The RSF currently controlshalf of Sudan, including almost all of Darfur, Khartoum, and southern regions, and there are concerns thata partition of the country would lead to “state disintegration,” provoking an even greater humanitarian catastrophe.
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 19, 2024.
Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa.
An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur.
US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.
Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the allegedly Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top.
Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch Party for Freedom party, part of the hard-right coalition government.
Hard Numbers: The Netherlands nixes asylum-seekers, Sudan strife escalates, South Koreans agitate, Beijing condemns US-Taiwan arms deal, Bulgarians vote – again
51,000: The Dutch nationalist government on Friday approved tough new migration measures in Parliament, including enhanced border checks, an end to mandatory municipal settlement of asylum-seekers, and limits on family reunification. The policy comes after 51,000 asylum applications were made in the past 12 months and reflects shifts in Italy, Sweden, and other EU nations towards tighter migration controls.
124: An attack by the Rapid Support Forces on Friday killed at least 124 people in Al-Sareeha village in Sudan, with reports of over 200 injured and 150 detained. The attack marked the latest escalation in the conflict between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces, which has displaced millions and triggered a severe humanitarian crisis.
230,000: South Korean Christians held a mass protest in Seoul on Sunday to oppose a court ruling granting same-sex partners spousal health benefits, fearing it paves the way for legalizing same-sex marriage. The protest disrupted traffic as organizers claimed over a million participants, while police estimated the crowd at 230,000.
2 billion: China on Saturday condemned a $2 billion US arms sale to Taiwan, the 17th of the Biden administration to the island, vowing “countermeasures” to defend its sovereignty. Beijing warns that the deal, which includes advanced air defense systems, “seriously damages China-US relations, and endangers peace and stability” in the strait.
7: Exit polls show Boyko Borisov's GERB party leading Bulgaria’s seventh election in three years, but forming a coalition could be difficult: The last election in June produced a hung Parliament. This time, the pro-Russian Vazrazhdane party underperformed, while the Reformist PP-DB exceeded expectations. Final results are expected on Monday.
The UAE’s hidden hand in Sudan’s humanitarian crisis
The war in Sudan between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the United Arab Emirates is playing a role in prolonging it.
Passports recovered from battlefields in Sudan suggest the United Arab Emirates is covertly putting boots on the ground to support the RSF — a charge the UAE denies. The allegations come after a UN report surfaced evidence the UAE has provided weapons to the RSF to the degree many analysts believe that “without the UAE’s alleged involvement, the conflict driving the world’s worst ongoing humanitarian crisis would already be over.”
Why would the UAE support the war? Sudan is key, militarily and economically, to the UAE’s strategy in Africa and the Middle East. Militarily, it has sourced fighters from both factions to join its conflict in Yemen. Economically, it is the primary importer of Sudan’s gold, and it plans to develop ports along its Red Sea coast. Meanwhile, Iran is supplying weapons to SAF, and Russia is supporting both sides in exchange for access to a strategic Red Sea port.
The United States plans to revive peace talks next month in Switzerland, where the UAE is invited to attend as an observer. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield says Washington has “engaged” with the UAE on the issue. But Washington faces accusations of hypocrisy, as it calls for an end to weapons supplies in Sudan while continuing to provide billions’ worth to Israel during its offensive on Gaza.
A member of the Sudanese Armed forces walks between damaged buildings, almost one year into the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), in Omdurman, Sudan, April 7, 2024.
US leads effort for cease-fire in Sudan
The US is spearheading a new effort for a cease-fire in Sudan, inviting both sides in the civil war to talks in Switzerland set to begin on Aug. 14.
“The scale of death, suffering, and destruction in Sudan is devastating. This senseless conflict must end,” Secretary of State Antony Blinkensaid this week. “We urge the parties to stop the fighting for the sake of a brighter future for Sudan.”
The 15-month-old war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, militia has had a devastating impact on civilians, forcing over 10 million people from their homes and sparking a major humanitarian crisis. Civilians in Sudan are facing "indiscriminate and widespread" violence, according to a recent report from Doctors Without Borders.
Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, chief of the RSF, agreed to attend the talks in Switzerland. But we’ll be watching to see whether the Sudanese army, which hasn’t responded to the invitation yet, also turns up.
Sudanese families wait outside a hospital while doctors and medical staff strike to protest late salaries, bringing the struggling health sector in the city of Port Sudan to almost a complete halt as thousands of displaced Sudanese flooded the city due to the raging war in Khartoum, Sudan, August 20, 2023.
Sudan’s paramilitaries shut key city’s last hospital
In moreterrible news for civilians in Sudan, fighting in the country’s civil war has forced the closure of el-Fasher’s last open hospital. This city is the final stronghold of government forces fighting the RSF, a paramilitary group. Hundreds of thousands of civilians are sheltering in the city.
On Saturday, RSF fighters reportedly opened fire, looted drugs and medical equipment, assaulted hospital staff, and stole an ambulance. The hospital had repeatedly come under RSF fire over the past two weeks.
The civil war has killed at least 15,000 people since April 2023, and nearly nine million have been displaced. The RSF is a collection of what was once the Janjaweed militia groups, which have committed atrocities in Darfur. Both the RSF and government forces have been accused of crimes against civilians during this conflict.
Doctors, with support fromMédecins Sans Frontières, a medical relief organization, will try to shift hospital operations to a rundown Saudi-built hospital further from the frontlines, but that building doesn’t yet have electricity, fuel, or water. An MSF spokesperson says trapped and injured civilians in the city will not receive basic care for at least a week.